Thunder @ Houston Rockets preview (Game 42 of 82)

Oklahoma City Thunder (34-7, 1st in the West) @ Houston Rockets (23-14, 6th in the West)
When: Thursday, 15 January 2026 at 6:30pm CST
Where: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
TV: Prime Video / FDSN-OK
Offensive Rating: HOU: 120.0 (3rd) / OKC: 118.2 (5th)
Defensive Rating: HOU: 112.7 (9th) / OKC: 105.4 (1st)
Net Rating: HOU: 7.3 (2nd) / OKC: 12.8 (1st)
Current Streaks: HOU: 2-4 in their last 6 / OKC: 4 straight wins, 8-2 in last 10

The Set-Up

The second half of the season begins the same way the first half of the season did…against the Houston Rockets. After a 24-1 start to the season, the Thunder stumbled a bit in December, specifically against the San Antonio Spurs, and hit a bit of a funk. Fatigue, injuries, and the unrelenting nature of the schedule in late December and January all played a part in tiring the Thunder and making them look, dare I say, vulnerable. At the half-way point, OKC finds themselves at 34-7. The Thunder are the top team in Defensive Rating, Net Rating, Field Goals Made, Turnover Percentage (giving up the least amount of turnovers), Opponent Turnover Percentage (forcing the most turnovers), Points off Turnovers, Opponent 2nd Chance Points, Opponent Fastbreak Points, and Opponent Points in the Paint. They are 2nd in Points Per Game, Turnovers Per Game (limiting turnovers), and Opponent Effective FG% (opponents shoot 2nd worst against OKC). Ironically, for all the discourse in the NBA zeitgeist, the Thunder rank 14th in Free Throw Attempts per game.

This is the 2nd of 3 meetings this season between the Rockets and Thunder. The first game was a memorable, double-OT affair that opened up the 2025-26 NBA season. In that game, OKC won 125-124, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander putting up 35 points and Chet Holmgren adding in 28 points.

Betting Info, presented by FanDuel

Line: OKC -4.5
O/U: 222.5

Injury Report

OKC

Lu Dort – Questionable (foot)
Isaiah Hartenstein – OUT (calf)
Thomas Sorber – OFS (knee/ACL)
Nikola Topic – OUT (cancer treatment)

HOU

Tari Eason – OUT (ankle)
Dorian Finney-Smith – OUT (ankle)
Fred VanVleet – OFS (knee/ACL)

Three Big Things

Rebounding and 2nd Chance Points – The Houston Rockets are dominant on the glass this season. They rank first in Offensive Rebounds per game at 16.4, nearly 3 whole rebounds more than the 2nd place team. They also lead the league in rebounds per game at 49.1. They are also first in Offensive Rebound percentage and Rebound percentage. Due to this, they are also first in the league at 2nd Chance Points per game at 18.6. The Thunder, themselves, haven’t been slouches on the glass, ranking 5th in Defensive Rebounds per game and also being the best team at defending 2nd Chance Points per game. With that said, when you point to a weakness on the Thunder, securing those offensive rebounds, especially at critical points in the game, has been an issue. The absence of Isaiah Hartenstein (and Jaylin Williams, until he returned a couple of games ago) over the past month, has had an effect on how well the Thunder have been able to rebound the ball. A positive from this, though, is that since Jan. 29th, Chet Holmgren ranks 6th in the league with 10.1 rebounds per game.
Pace – While players like Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun are great in the half-court, Houston, as a team, ranks 28th in Pace. They don’t get out and run as much as most “young” teams do. In addition, they are the 6th worst team in coughing up the ball, giving it up at a clip of 15.6 turnovers per game. If Oklahoma City is able to generate turnovers, like they usually do, and get out in transition, like they usually do, this will play greatly in their favor and may be able to offset any advantage Houston has on the boards.
Packing the Paint – While the Rockets have a top-3 offense in the league, their offensive style of play plays right into what the Thunder like to do defensively. Houston is 29th in 3-point attempts and 25th in 3-point makes. They are 3rd in percentage of points scored from 2-point range, 2nd in percentage of points scored in the mid-range, and 8th in percentage of point scored in the paint. Conversely, OKC is the best team at defending points in the paint and have a defensive ethos of defending from the paint out.