Thunder @ Houston Rockets preview (Game 42 of 82)

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (34-7, 1st in the West) @ Houston Rockets (23-14, 6th in the West)
  • When: Thursday, 15 January 2026 at 6:30pm CST
  • Where: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
  • TV: Prime Video / FDSN-OK
  • Offensive Rating: HOU: 120.0 (3rd) / OKC: 118.2 (5th)
  • Defensive Rating: HOU: 112.7 (9th) / OKC: 105.4 (1st)
  • Net Rating: HOU: 7.3 (2nd) / OKC: 12.8 (1st)
  • Current Streaks: HOU: 2-4 in their last 6 / OKC: 4 straight wins, 8-2 in last 10

The Set-Up

The second half of the season begins the same way the first half of the season did…against the Houston Rockets. After a 24-1 start to the season, the Thunder stumbled a bit in December, specifically against the San Antonio Spurs, and hit a bit of a funk. Fatigue, injuries, and the unrelenting nature of the schedule in late December and January all played a part in tiring the Thunder and making them look, dare I say, vulnerable. At the half-way point, OKC finds themselves at 34-7. The Thunder are the top team in Defensive Rating, Net Rating, Field Goals Made, Turnover Percentage (giving up the least amount of turnovers), Opponent Turnover Percentage (forcing the most turnovers), Points off Turnovers, Opponent 2nd Chance Points, Opponent Fastbreak Points, and Opponent Points in the Paint. They are 2nd in Points Per Game, Turnovers Per Game (limiting turnovers), and Opponent Effective FG% (opponents shoot 2nd worst against OKC). Ironically, for all the discourse in the NBA zeitgeist, the Thunder rank 14th in Free Throw Attempts per game.

This is the 2nd of 3 meetings this season between the Rockets and Thunder. The first game was a memorable, double-OT affair that opened up the 2025-26 NBA season. In that game, OKC won 125-124, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander putting up 35 points and Chet Holmgren adding in 28 points.

Betting Info, presented by FanDuel

  • Line: OKC -4.5
  • O/U: 222.5

Injury Report

OKC

  • Lu Dort – Questionable (foot)
  • Isaiah Hartenstein – OUT (calf)
  • Thomas Sorber – OFS (knee/ACL)
  • Nikola Topic – OUT (cancer treatment)

HOU

  • Tari Eason – OUT (ankle)
  • Dorian Finney-Smith – OUT (ankle)
  • Fred VanVleet – OFS (knee/ACL)

Three Big Things

  1. Rebounding and 2nd Chance Points – The Houston Rockets are dominant on the glass this season. They rank first in Offensive Rebounds per game at 16.4, nearly 3 whole rebounds more than the 2nd place team. They also lead the league in rebounds per game at 49.1. They are also first in Offensive Rebound percentage and Rebound percentage. Due to this, they are also first in the league at 2nd Chance Points per game at 18.6. The Thunder, themselves, haven’t been slouches on the glass, ranking 5th in Defensive Rebounds per game and also being the best team at defending 2nd Chance Points per game. With that said, when you point to a weakness on the Thunder, securing those offensive rebounds, especially at critical points in the game, has been an issue. The absence of Isaiah Hartenstein (and Jaylin Williams, until he returned a couple of games ago) over the past month, has had an effect on how well the Thunder have been able to rebound the ball. A positive from this, though, is that since Jan. 29th, Chet Holmgren ranks 6th in the league with 10.1 rebounds per game.
  2.  Pace – While players like Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun are great in the half-court, Houston, as a team, ranks 28th in Pace. They don’t get out and run as much as most “young” teams do. In addition, they are the 6th worst team in coughing up the ball, giving it up at a clip of 15.6 turnovers per game. If Oklahoma City is able to generate turnovers, like they usually do, and get out in transition, like they usually do, this will play greatly in their favor and may be able to offset any advantage Houston has on the boards.
  3. Packing the Paint – While the Rockets have a top-3 offense in the league, their offensive style of play plays right into what the Thunder like to do defensively. Houston is 29th in 3-point attempts and 25th in 3-point makes. They are 3rd in percentage of points scored from 2-point range, 2nd in percentage of points scored in the mid-range, and 8th in percentage of point scored in the paint. Conversely, OKC is the best team at defending points in the paint and have a defensive ethos of defending from the paint out.

The Day After: HOU vs. OKC – Game 1 of 82 Recap

Ring night. Banner night. And boy, was it a banner night. Not just for the Oklahoma City Thunder. But also for the NBA on NBC. Talk about an opening game to restart their new media relationship with their old friend, the NBA. The intro, the song, Michael Jordan. It’s like we never left 90’s.

Then the game tipped off and became an instant hardwood classic. In the end, the Thunder held on to win 125-124 in double overtime. With that said, here are some notes from the game.

  1. SGA is still him – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander got off to an unusually slow start on Tuesday. The reigning MVP started off 2/5 in the first half and went into halftime with only 5 points. Despite this, it truly felt like a game where SGA was okay with taking what the defense gave him and trusting his teammates. Houston was using their length to crowd the paint and doubling SGA for the majority of the game. He only registered one assist in the first half, but his gravity allowed his teammates to get good looks, especially Chet Holmgren (we’ll get to him soon). The second half, though, was a different story. It started off the same, but SGA was able to shake loose on consecutive 12-foot jumpers, which seemed to open up the defense and gave SGA some rhythm offensively. After that, he was MVP Shai, and seemingly hit every big shot he had to in order to will OKC to a victory. Late in the 4th and during the OT’s, SGA hit shot after shot to either tie the game or put the Thunder up. His two free throws in double-OT were the game-winners, and fouled Kevin Durant out, which prevented him from being on the floor on Houston’s final possession. In total, SGA finished with his customary 35 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, and 2 blocks. Just another Tuesday on the basketball court.
  2. Y’all must’ve forgot – Before going down with a broken hip in the 10th game of the year last season, Chet Holmgren was well on his way to a possible All-NBA, All-Star, DPOY, etc. type season. In those nine games to start last season, Holmgren was averaging 18.2 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.9 steals, and 2.9 blocks, while shooting 40% from deep on nearly four attempts per game. He was even garnering early MVP buzz. The Holmgren we saw late in the season and into the playoffs was still good, but you could tell that he didn’t have the ramp-up runway to shake off the rust from that type of injury. In the first half of this game, Holmgren’s offensive aggressiveness, especially against the zone, is what kept OKC in the game, despite SGA getting off to a slow start. His ability to get into the teeth of the zone (from the nail) and maneuver from there was huge for OKC staying resolute despite Houston’s length being very disruptive. When it was all said and done, Holmgren finished with 28 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 assists, while shooting 40% from deep.
  3. Alperen Sengun – Thank God the Thunder have won a championship and have Holmgren in tow. Because if they were to be currently title-less, Sengun would be wrestling James Harden for the title of “the one who got away”. It’s always frickin’ Houston. Alpie was amazing in this game. Despite being on the floor with the current and a former MVP, Alpie, many times, looked like the best player on the court. If that 3-point shot is real, the league may have another Jokic-type monster on their hands. Sengun does a great job of noticing mismatches and taking advantage of them quickly. When the Thunder had Alex Caruso on Sengun, he would either take the three when the close-out was soft or try to back Caruso down when the close-out was aggressive. When Chet was on him, Sengun used his size advantage to back Holmgren to the basket. Sengun was also their go-to player in clutch situations. A great game in a losing effort for Sengun, who finished with 39 points, 11 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals, and a block, while shooting 5-8 from deep and 10-11 from the line.
  4. Cason Wallace – That third year leap may be showing up for the Thunder once again. Wallace, like SGA, got off to an extremely slow start in this game. He was 0-1 in the first half and not overly aggressive. But in the 2nd half, Wallace transformed defensive energy into offensive rhythm, and started becoming a problem for Houston. (See what I did there!) Wallace registered all four of his steals in the 3rd and 4th quarters and helped keep the Thunder at arm’s length throughout the 2nd half. But it was his shot-making that was key to OKC winning. With 2:01 left in the 4th, Wallace hit a three that brought OKC to within one of the Rockets. Then in double OT, Wallace hit a three from the same spot as the one in the 4th with 1:32 left to give OKC a one point lead at the time. If Wallace can consistently put the “3” in “3&D”, the NBA may be in trouble.
  5. Western Conference – Once again, the Western Conference is going to be a bloodbath. Due to the age of many of the rosters, injuries (nothing major, just the nagging kind) may have a say in where teams finish. But if everyone remains relatively healthy, conference play is going to be a chore. Tuesday night showed us why the NBA opened up with four teams from the West. Cleveland and New York will get their shine tonight, but the class of the NBA resides west of the Mississippi.
  6. Ajay Mitchell – Remember the name. Chet Holmgren wasn’t the only player keeping the Thunder afloat in the first half. Mitchell provided some sauce off the bench for OKC. In 15 minutes, Mitchell had 16 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 block on 3-6 shooting from deep. His 4-point play at the halftime buzzer may have been the play of the game and may have provided OKC with the momentum they needed in the 2nd half. With Jalen Williams and Nikola Topic out for the foreseeable future, Mitchell’s ability to handle the ball and play-make may be extremely important to OKC success early in the season.

Houston Rockets vs. Thunder preview (Game 72 of 82)

  • Houston Rockets (36-35, 11th in the West) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (50-21, 2nd in the West)
  • When: Wednesday, 27 March 2024 at 7:00pm CST
  • Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
  • Offensive Rating – HOU: 113.7 (19th) / OKC: 118.7 (4th)
  • Defensive Rating – HOU: 112.1 (8th) / OKC: 111.4 (5th)
  • Net Rating – HOU: 1.6 (15th) / OKC: 7.3 (2nd)

The Set-Up

Sometimes, a tough, hard-fought victory is exactly what the doctor ordered. Last night’s win over the New Orleans Pelicans is exactly the kind of gritty, grind-it-out game that the Thunder needed to win to feel good about themselves. Even though they have gone 8-2 over their last 10, the losses have felt almost disastrous and the wins have felt “meh”. It was good knowing that the Thunder didn’t have to play their best in order to win in a playoff environment.

This is the fourth and final meeting this season between these two teams. The Rockets won the first meeting early in December, 110-101. The Thunder returned the favor on back to back nights in late February, winning 123-110 and 112-95, respectively.

Magic Numbers

  • To lock up the 10th seed (play-in guaranteed) – 0 (Locked In)
  • To lock up the 6th seed (playoffs guaranteed) – 3
  • To lock up the 4th seed (homecourt advantage in the first round guaranteed) – 6

Betting Info

  • Line: OKC -6.5
  • O/U: 231.5

Injury Report

OKC

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (quad) – Day to Day

HOU

  • Steven Adams (knee) – OUT
  • Tari Eason (lower leg) – OUT
  • Alperen Sengun (ankle) – OUT
  • Cam Whitmore (knee) – OUT

Three Big Things

  1. Transition Offense vs. Transition Defense – The Thunder love to get out on the break and run. They are first in the league in points off turnovers and 7th in fast break points. The young legs on the team love to get up and down the floor. However, Houston is probably the best transition defense in the league. The Rockets allow the third fewest points off turnovers and are first in defending fast break points.
  2. Hot Team Extinguishers – The Thunder always seem to get teams when they are playing their best. In December, they faced a Clippers team that had found it’s groove after the James Harden trade and came into OKC on a 9-game winning streak. The result: a 134-115 OKC victory. There was a run of 13 games for Denver in December, where they went 11-2, with the two losses coming at the hands of the Thunder. In January, the Boston Celtics came into OKC having won 11 of their last 12 games. The result: a 127-123 OKC victory. Tonight, the Rockets come into OKC on a 9-game winning streak. Here’s hoping the Thunder aren’t too beat up or tired from last night’s tough game.
  3. Ewing Theory – Since Alperen Sengun went down 7 games ago, certain players on the Rockets have stepped up in big ways. In that same span, Jalen Green and Jock Landale have net ratings of 24.2 and 24.5, respectively. Green, especially, has seen a huge leap in production as the former No. 2 pick looks like he’s starting to live up to his lofty billing. In the last 10 games, Green is averaging 27.6 points on 50/43/78 shooting splits. His true shooting is in the mid 60’s and his usage is up to 30 during that time. Londale has allowed Houston to play a more modern style due to his ability to step out and hit 3’s. In his last 10 games, Landale is shooting 55.6% from deep.

Houston Rockets vs. Thunder preview (Game 58 of 82)

  • Houston Rockets (25-32, 12th in the West) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (40-17, 2nd in the West)
  • When: Tuesday, 27 February 2024 at 9:00pm CST
  • Where: PayCom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
  • Offensive Rating – HOU: 112.8 (24th) / OKC: 119.6 (3rd)
  • Defensive Rating – HOU: 112.8 (8th) / OKC: 111.4 (4th)
  • Net Rating – HOU: -0.1 (18th) / OKC: 8.2 (2nd)

The Set-Up

I’ve never solved the puzzle that is the Rubik Cube. I try and then eventually just give up. And I’ve never really done a deep dive into how to solve it either. But to some people, the Rubik Cube became an obsession. They researched it, spoke to people who had solved it before, and kept trying. Eventually, they figured the trick to the Cube and solved it. Now, you have people that can solve a Rubik Cube in less than a minute.

This season has been a lot like the solving of the Rubik Cube for the Thunder. Some teams flummoxed OKC early on, but through research (game film) and speaking with experts (Coach Daigneault), the Thunder have begun to figure teams out. Denver completely demolished the Thunder early in the season. Then the Thunder won the next three. Sacramento has given OKC issues for the past few seasons. The Thunder now seem to have figured that puzzle out. Houston plays like world-beaters every time their opponent has OKC written on their jersey. The Thunder turned a 16-point deficit into a 13-point victory on Sunday. Here’s hoping the puzzle of bad starts against Houston gets solved tonight.

This is the third of four meetings this season between these two teams. Houston dominated OKC in their first meeting in Houston, winning 110-101 (it wasn’t that close). OKC returned the favor on Sunday, winning 123-110. Their final meeting of the season will be on March 27th.

Magic Numbers

  • To lock up the 10th seed (play-in guaranteed) – 16
  • To lock up the 6th seed (playoffs guaranteed) – 19

Betting Info

  • Line: OKC -9.5
  • O/U: 235.5

Injury Report

OKC

  • None

HOU

  • Steven Adams (knee) – OUT
  • Tari Eason (lower leg) – OUT

Three Big Things

  1. The Josh Giddey conundrum – The Houston Rockets were the first team this season to really lean on the “put the center on Giddey and let them roam” defense that OKC has been seeing over the past two months. In Sunday’s game, the Thunder involved Giddey in a lot more action around the floor (pick and rolls, off-ball action, etc) to cause the defense to react to the movement. The beautiful thing about a home and home is that it almost has the feel of a playoff series where adjustments are made from game to game. It will be interesting to see how Houston adjusts to OKC putting Giddey in motion on the offensive end.
  2. Attack the paint – Houston has prioritized in long-winged perimeter defenders such as Tari Eason, Dillon Brooks, Jabari Smith Jr, and Amen Thompson. Where they lack is on the interior. While it may be a chore in getting into the paint, once they arrive, there isn’t much stopping from getting to the rim. For as good as Alperen Sengun has been on the offensive end, the defensive struggles are starting to become more and more apparent with every passing day.
  3. Gordon Hayward – While it has looked a little clunky, I think the Hayward trade will turn out to be very successful for the Thunder. He has yet to take a three in the three games he has played with OKC. That means one of two things for me: either Hayward is still figuring out where on the floor to be in order to compliment OKC’s big 3 or defenders are staying closer to Hayward than they would someone like, oh, I don’t know, Josh Giddey, and giving the big 3 more space to operate. I’m calling my shot: Hayward hits two 3-pointers tonight.

Thunder @ Houston Rockets (Game 20 of 82)

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (13-6, 2nd in the West) @ Houston Rockets (8-9, 10th in the West)
  • When – Wednesday, 06 December 2023 at 7:00pm CST
  • Where – Toyota Center, Houston, TX
  • Offensive Rating – HOU: 112.6 (20th) / OKC: 117.9 (5th)
  • Defensive Rating – HOU: 110.0 (5th) / OKC: 109.5 (4th)
  • Net Rating – HOU: 2.6 (12th) / OKC: 8.4 (2nd)

The Set-Up

The come-up has been something to marvel for these teams that were bottom feeders just a few seasons ago. The Minnesota Timberwolves, Orlando Magic, and Oklahoma City Thunder were bottom 5 in the league just a couple of seasons ago. Now, all three of the teams listed are either at the top of their conference or in second place. In addition, teams like Houston and Indiana have become extremely competitive and have the possibility of moving up in the standings as the season progresses. The cycle of change in the NBA is as consistent as the four seasons. Teams at the top now will inevitably be at the bottom in a couple of seasons. And visa versa. So here’s to the upcoming era of these teams for the next couple of seasons.

Season Series: This is the first of four meetings between the Rockets and Thunder this season.

Betting Info

  • Line: OKC -2.5
  • O/U: 226.5

Injury Report

OKC

  • Ousmane Dieng (G-League assignment) – Not Available

HOU

  • Jock Londale (illness) – Questionable
  • Victor Oladipo (knee) – OUT
  • Amen Thompson (G-League assignment) – Not Available
  • Cam Whitmore (G-League assignment) – Not Available

Three Big Things

  1. Giddey – Our point guard is averaging 1 assist per game over the last 3 games. He played a season low 16 minutes in the Thunder’s last game and seems to be struggling with his confidence. I know he has a lot going on in his personal life, but he has to play better. While the team has been successful despite Giddey’s erratic play, a normal Giddey type game could boost this team up even more. Maybe Mark Daigneault will find a line-up that can fit more to Giddey’s strengths when SGA goes to the bench. Maybe something like Giddey, Chet, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins/Kenrich Williams. Shooters and defenders around Giddey.
  2. Pace – Houston is one of the slower paced teams in the league, while OKC is one of the higher paced teams. Both teams also do a good job of limiting turnovers. That said, if OKC can play their brand of basketball and cause Houston to turn the ball over, it should help facilitate their transition opportunities and shift the game towards their style of play.
  3. Big man battle – The match-up we’ve all been waiting for. Chet vs. Sengun. On Twitter, Houston and OKC fans can be a bit contentious towards each other, and one of the main sticking points is Alperen Sengun. Houston fans love to point out the fact that OKC gave Sengun up in a draft day deal and that he is going to be one of their core pieces moving forward. OKC loves to point out the fact that Sengen is a traffic cone on defense and the Thunder still own the Rockets’ future for the next few seasons. The reality, as always, is somewhere in the middle. Sengun has been great this season, leading the Rockets in scoring (21 ppg) and rebounding (9.2), while being on a team that is 5th in defensive rating. But the Thunder have a better record, are further along in their rebuild, and still have a ton of assets (to include multiple first and second round picks from Houston). In addition, while channeling my inner Iron Man from the first Avengers movie, “We have a Chet”.