Current Streaks: CHI: Winner of 1, loser of 11 straight prior to that / OKC: Winners of 2 straight, 5-1 since the All-Star break
The Tip-Off
Funny how you get an MVP back in the line-up and all the struggles from the previous 3 weeks are forgotten. When healthy, the Thunder are still the team to beat in the NBA. While this season has been mired by the “potholes in the road” by injuries, they are still arguably the best team in the NBA, by a significant margin. Friday night showed that. Denver gave it their best shot with Nikola Jokic having a monster triple-double and Jamal Murray pitching in 39 points. And yet, even with a chance to win it in overtime with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sitting, the Nuggets looked like they were the team that was suffering from the altitude in OKC. SGA’s time off the floor may have unlocked different aspects of the team that could yield positive returns come playoff time. Isaiah Joe, Jared McCain, and Cason Wallace each were significant contributors to the Thunder beating the Nuggets in OT.
This is the first of two meetings this season between the Thunder and Bulls. OKC has now won 6 straight games against Chicago, dating back to the 2022-23 season, with an average margin of victory of 16.5 points.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – OUT (abdominal strain / injury management)
Isaiah Hartenstein – OUT (calf strain / injury management)
Ajay Mitchell – OUT (abdominal strain / ankle)
Thomas Sorber – OFS (knee/ACL)
Jalen Williams – OUT (hamstring)
CHI
Zach Collins – OFS (toe)
Noa Essengue – OFS (shoulder)
Jaden Ivey – OUT (knee)
Anfernee Simons – OUT (wrist)
Jalen Smith – OUT (calf)
Patrick Williams – OUT (quad)
Three Big Things
Defending a Hodge-podge – The Bulls currently are just a cobbled up gaggle of undersized point guards, Josh Giddey, Matas Buzelis, and non-center centers. The unusualness of their current line-ups is where they can trip opponents up. The Thunder are made to defend the line-ups of today’s basketball. But if there is no Jokic, Doncic, or Ant Edwards to hyperfocus on, this team’s defense can sometimes be left scrambling, especially against guard heavy line-ups (see Charlotte and Utah).
Josh Giddey revenge game? – We just saw Ousmane Dieng have one of the best games of his career in his return to OKC right before the All-Star break. There were, of course, plenty of variables at play that could have contributed to such a performance, such as not having any play-makers available and the team having a “1-2-3 Cancun!” mentality after a roller-coaster first half of the season. But coming into tonight, there are similar variables at play: No play-makers available to them and the team possibly looking forward to the game on Wednesday in New York. There is trap game potential in this game and it could be spearheaded by Giddey.
Cason Wallace – With SGA, Mitchell, and Dub being out for tonight, the team will likely look to Cason to be their de-facto play-maker. And he’s been great since the All-Star break, averaging 6.5 assists per game, while boasting a 3:1 assist to turnover ratio. In that same span, he’s also averaging 15.3 points on 45/50/90 shooting splits.
Four years ago today, the Oklahoma City Thunder traveled to Memphis to face the Grizzlies, who were going to be without Ja Morant. The Thunder were also going to be without two of their best players in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey. The Grizzlies were favored to win, as the Thunder were in the midst of a rebuild. As they say, there are professionals on both teams. The outcome of the game, though, was anything but professional. The Thunder came out flat, dug themselves in a hole, got tossed some shovels, and kept on digging. To the tune of a record 73-point drubbing, 152-79. SGA, Aaron Wiggins, and Kenrich Williams saw that game from the sidelines. Lu Dort played in that game and was the leading scorer for OKC. Four years later, the Thunder (and those same four players) sit on top of the basketball world with teams scared they may be in the midst of a dynastic run. As Shai’s favorite rapper, Drake, would say, “Started from the bottom, now we’re here…”
This is the 2nd of 4 meetings this season between the Thunder and Warriors. OKC won the first game in resounding fashion, 126-102, in a game that saw Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler combine to score just 23 points on 38% shooting from the field and 17% shooting from 3. For the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 28 points and dished out 11 assists, while Chet Holmgren tallied 23 points to go along with 11 rebounds.
Causing turnovers – For as great the Warriors have been through the years on the offensive end, their Achilles heel has always been their propensity to commit turnovers. That is no different this season. Golden State turns the ball over 16.2 times a game, which is 5th worst in the league. On the other end of the spectrum, OKC creates the most turnovers and leads the league in points off turnovers.
Three-Point Shooting – If I were to ask who do you think has a higher 3pt percentage between OKC and Golden State, the likely answer would be Golden State. In reality, it’s actually OKC. Not by much, but still, very surprising. The Warriors still lead the league in 3-pointers made per game. With Stephen Curry out, the onus to make threes will fall on Moses Moody (39.2% on 6.6 attempts), Brandin Podziemski (38.6% on 4.8 attempts), and Buddy Hield (30.8% on 4.3 attempts). Hield is having a down year, but can catch fire in an instant.
History in the making – In his last game against the Portland Trailblazers, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander checked back into the game with 5:53 left in the 4th quarter. He had 16 points and was in jeopardy of losing his consecutive game streak of scoring 20 or more points in a game. With 4:18 left, he finally got loose for a difficult 17-foot fallaway jumper. Then with 2:30 left, SGA hit a 14-foot middy, off an assist from Jalen Williams. Whew! Crisis averted. And in sole possession of 2nd place with 93 consecutive games of scoring 20 points or more. The next target is the record of 126 games. And for anyone that wants to talk mess or downplay that consistency, just know that LeBron James currently holds the record for consecutive games scoring at least 10 points or more in NBA history with 1,297 games and counting. And during that time, LeBron has stayed in games while injured just to collect the necessary points to keep the streak going. Even last night, as the Lakers were getting blown out by the Suns, LeBron stayed in the game long enough to notch his 10th point and then was pulled a minute later late in the 4th quarter.
Ahhh, yes. The Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso trade. Slightly vilified on Chicago’s end early on, but slowly creeping towards being a win/win trade for both teams. After a rough start to the season, Giddey is close to averaging 20/9/8 over the past 2 months. On the flip side of things, Caruso also started off slowly, but is starting to show how valuable he can be for this team as a 3&D player and big time glue guy. Much to the chagrin of basketball Twitter, there are actually trades where it’s a win/win for both teams. Chicago got themselves a point guard to build off of in what is looking like a new rebuild. And OKC got themselves another rotation piece to put around to put around their core three of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren. OKC is having a historic season, while Chicago is becoming one of the most exciting young teams in the league. Win/Win! Giddey wasn’t going to work in OKC. He and SGA need the ball in their hands and SGA is the better player. It wasn’t Josh’s fault that he was slotted next to an eventual MVP. But in Chicago, he is able to play his brand of basketball and has flourished. I, for one, am happy for him and hope that he continues his great run of late…just not tonight.
This is the second and final meeting of the season between these two teams. The first meeting took place way early in the season, with OKC coming out victorious, 114-95.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -15.5
O/U: 238.5
Injury Report
OKC
Ousmane Dieng – OUT (calf)
Alex Ducas – OUT (quad)
Isaiah Hartenstein – Questionable (hip)
Chet Holmgren – Questionable (hip)
Ajay Mitchell – OUT (toe)
Nikola Topic – OUT (knee)
Aaron Wiggins – OUT (Achilles)
Jaylin Williams – Questionable (hip)
CHI
Lonzo Ball – OUT (wrist)
Ayo Dosunmu – OUT (shoulder)
Kevin Huerter – OUT (thumb)
Tre Jones – OUT (foot)
EJ Liddell – OUT (illness)
Three Big Things
1. Since the All-Star Break – While the Thunder have been completely dominant post-ASB, the Chicago Bulls have done a good job of handing the keys off to their players of the future and allowing them to see how they fare against the rest of the league. Giddey, Coby White, and Matas Buzelis have acclimated themselves well to their expanded roles on the team during that time and have allowed for a rosier picture to be painted for a franchise that has been mired in mediocrity for the better part of the past decade. Since the ASB, the Bulls are 11-8 and are 13th in offensive rating, 9th in defensive rating, and 10th in net rating. They are first in pace during that time, 4th in assist/turnover ratio, and 5th in defensive rebound percentage. Over the course of the season, the Bulls have changed the way they play and found a bit of a groove.
2. Pace – As mentioned above, the Bulls lead the league in pace since the All-Star break. Giddey has done a great job of late in grabbing and going, while spraying the ball out to play finishers like Buzelis, White, and Nikola Vucevic. The Thunder are usually the team that likes to run, but this may be a game where they let their halfcourt offense shine. Chicago has done a good job of protecting the ball over this past month and a half, so turnovers may not be in abundant supply in this game.
3. Big Health – With all three centers being game-time decisions today, the matchup against Vucevic may be an interesting one. I doubt all three bigs sit, but if the Thunder are prioritizing health for the playoffs, then Kenrich Williams and Branden Carlson may be the next men up.
New Orleans was held to 28.1% shooting from deep, while OKC registered 47.2% from distance.
Lu Dort and Josh Giddey tied for the most 3-points made on either team with 4 each.
The Thunder forced 20 turnovers.
Game 4 Adjustments
Close-out Game – This is always the hardest game from a mental standpoint. Take into account that this is the Thunder’s first close-out game under this recent iteration. The only players on the team that have any sort of experience in close-out games are Mike Muscala, Bismack Biyombo, and Gordon Hayward. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Lu Dort were part of a Game 7 against Houston in the 2020 Bubble, but lost that game in close fashion. Psychologically, the Thunder have to be tougher than ever in order to avoid a let-down due to being up 3-0 in mostly dominant fashion. As we’ve seen in these playoffs, you don’t want to leave anything up to chance. If you can avoid playing games and avoid injuries, you do that if at all possible.
Continue playing your game – There hasn’t been any over the top performances by the Thunder players in this postseason. It’s been a hard-hat and lunch pail approach in these first three games. Force turnovers. Hunt the best shot. Focus defensively on the opponent’s top guys. Block another Trey Murphy III dunk attempt. Listen to the Coach of the Year. Rinse and repeat. Oklahoma City had a plan heading into this series and are executing it flawlessly. Any deviation from this norm could prove to be detrimental.
Watch out for shenanigans – The Pelicans will be in desperation mode. The refs, in an effort to see this series extended, may either allow more than usual contact or may have a quick whistle. Either way, the Thunder will have to be smart about how they defend and will need to keep their cool, which will eventually be tested.
Congratulations to the Coach of the Year, Mark Daigneault. – MVP next???
The Ultimate Disrespect – If you are wondering why the Thunder shunned Allie LaForce on the TNT post-game interview after Game 3 in favor of Nick Gallo, look no further than to what is happening tonight. The game tonight will be televised on NBATV….only if you have NBATV and only if you live outside of the OKC and New Orleans viewing area. Unfortunately, if you live in the OKC and NO viewing area and have NBATV, you will be blacked out from watching the game unless you have Bally Sports. If you are blacked out and chose not to get Bally Sports (such as myself), you will have to either illegally stream the game or watch it on a gamecast. This is so wrong, on so many levels. But, hey, we’ll remember that the next time you want to interview the guys and Nick Gallo is standing there waiting.
Against all odds, against every expectation, prediction, and assumption: The Thunder are once again the #1 seed in the Western Conference.
And yet, it doesn’t really feel like it.
Sure, for us Thunder fans, it was a celebration (clap, clap, bravo) like we haven’t had in a long time. From the hilarious nature of seeding watch day, to the harrowing decimation of the Dallas Mavericks in the regular season finale, Thunder fans had/have a lot to celebrate. This is the same team after all, that was going through seeding watch day last year as well; for the 10 seed.
All year long the Thunder have faced and conquered seemingly every challenge that came their way.
But it still doesn’t seem like its enough… for some people.
Bill Simmons on his podcast could barely mention and congratulate OKC for making the 1 seed before he fell victim to an old habit of Thunder hatred, saying to his co-host Ryen Russillo definitively “OKC cannot beat the Lakers.”.
He’s not the only one who thinks that.
ESPN’s Mike Greenberg suggested on Get Up that the Lakers “should not play Lebron James, should not play Anthony Davis, they should tank the 7/8 game, they should take their chances Friday night, one and done, at home against Golden State or Sacramento and go in and play OKC (instead of playing Denver) in round one…” and as wild as that statement and ideology is, its actually began to hit an echochamber amongst the talking heads.
To Greeny’s credit, he did start the statment by saying “Give them all the credit in the world, its going to sound like I’m disrespecting them…” which kinda feels like whenever someone says “No offense, but….”
Well guess what Greeny? Offense taken. You do sound like you’re disrespecting them, because you are disrespecting them. And he’s not alone. It doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes or Nancy Drew to find someone that is picking the Thunder to not only lose in the playoffs, but to lose in round one… again.
It feels like people look at this team, they notice a couple things, and that’s what they make their assessment on. They see Shai’s (out of context, early in his career, in a different role) playoff stats, they see youth (combined age of 23.4 [youngest 1 seed in NBA history]), they see the size (or lack thereof).
I recoginize that I am not the most objective person, but I do have to objectively say that they couldn’t be further from the truth.
In fact, not only would I say that the Thunder have what it takes to make it out of the first round, regardless of who makes it out of the Play-in tournament. This team, dare I say, has all the makings of a team that could win the whole freaking thing.
In a West that’s as wide open as its ever been, the Thunder could have potentially broken the franchise record of 60 wins, if not for late season injuries to their two star players, I want you to ruminate on a question throughout the remainder of this article.
“Why not us?”
Lets dive in, shall we?
Numbers
You know the saying. Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t. And the numbers speak very highly of this young Thunder team.
3rd in Points per game: 120.1 3rd in Field goal percentage: 49.9% 1st in Three point percentage: 38.9% 4th in Free throw percentage: 82.5% (AND ONLY 17TH IN ATTEMPTS, WHERE IS THE FOUL MERCHANTRY IN THAT) 2nd in True shooting percentage: 60.8% 3rd in Effective field goal percentage: 57.3% 7th in (fewest) Turnovers per game: 12.7 1st in Steals per game: 8.5 1st in Blocks per game: 6.6 3rd in Offensive rating: 118.3 4th in Defensive rating: 111.0 2nd in Net Rating: 7.3 5th in Pace: 100.85 7th in Fastbreak points per game: 15.8 3rd in Fastbreak points (allowed) per game: 12.5 1st in Points off turnovers per game: 20.5 3rd in (fewest) Points off turnovers per game: 14.8 7th in Points in the paint per game: 52.5 7th in Points in the paint (allowed) per game: 47 2nd in Halfcourt offensive rating: 106.3 3rd in Halfcourt defensive rating: 97.3
I realize I threw a bunch of numbers and stats at you, and some of them may be confusing and out of context, but let me summarize this in three words: Them dudes good.
Allow me to elaborate.
VARIETY
One of the most dangerous things about this team is the many different areas that it excels in.
You need buckets? They are top 5 in scoring.
Opposing defenses building a wall to stop the drives? We are the best three point shooting team in the league.
Is the pace slow and possessions limited to the halfcourt due to the slowed down nature of playoffs? We’re top 5 in both halfcourt offensive and defensive rating.
Teams want to get up and down the floor? We are top 5 in pace, scoring fastbreak points, and limiting fastbreak points. Not to mention tops at steals AND blocks, so we will turn you over. Oh, and we are the best in the league at converting those turnovers into points.
You see what I’m getting at here? The Thunder excel at every single aspect of modern basketball.
So much so that what is considered one of our biggest weaknesses (rebounding) has DRASTICALLY improved. On the season we are 29th in offensive rebounds, 12th in defensive rebounds, and 27th in rebounds overall; post all-star break however things have changed. 24th in offensive rebounds, 8th in defensive rebounds, and 15th overall.
They still aren’t great numbers, but they have improved throughout the year, and prove to keep up those numbers going into the playoffs.
Shooters everywhere
Whenever the Thunder brought in renowned shooting coach Chip Engelland, all Thunder fans were worried about was the shooting improvements for Josh Giddey. Little did they know, that the entire team was about to become deadly from deep.
12 players on this Thunder squad are shooting at least 37% from 3. 10 players are shooting over 39%. 8 are shooting over 40%. 2 of them (Aaron Wiggins and Gordan Hayward) are shooting around 50%.
To put this into perspective, lets look at the 2022-2023 Thunder.
7 players shot over 37%. 6 players shot over 39%. 3 players shot over 40%. Only 1 player shot 50%, but sadly, Jared Butler only appeared in 6 games, so we do not count his contributions.
For years, Thunder fans have clamored (BEGGED!) the front office to go and acquire shooting, and at long last, they have.
They show up when it matters most:
This can be true in two different ways.
First: Clutch.
The Thunder have played in 38 games in the clutch. In those 38 games they are 24-14 for a winning percentage of 63.2%, which places them 5th in that category. All the things they do well as a team on a game to game basis, are also done well in the clutch. They score efficiently, they shoot the piss out of the ball, and they create turnovers. In a word, they are still a well oiled machine.
Part of this is because they have not one, not two, but three of the most efficient clutch performers. Of players who have taken 40 shots in the clutch (58 eligible players) Jalen Williams ranks #1 with 68.3%, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ranks #4 with 58.1%, and Chet Holmgren ranks 9th with 52.5%. That is quite literally ABSURD.
Second: They rise to the occasion
Down the stretch of the season, you saw some juggernauts, or at least seemingly superior teams, get shocked and beaten by the bottom feeders of the league. But from the time Shai and Dub returned from their injuries, this team did not play with their food, winning their last 3 games by a combined 105 points.
Not convinced? How about this stat then: The Thunder had the highest point differential in the Western conference and 2nd highest in the league at +7.4. Against the other teams in the top 10, the Thunder has the best record against teams in the top 10 going 19-8.
There is one more reason, however.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Yes, Shai has had a special season. He is the first player to do things that only Michael Jordan and Steph Curry have done in an NBA season. He leads the league in 30 point games. He lost the steals title in the final hour of the regular season. He has the efficiency of a wing player as a guard. He is still just 25 years old. His previous playoff experience was a mixed bag, first as a rookie playing against the dynasty Warriors and then as a 3rd option on a makeshift Thunder playoff team. All these things can be true, and they are. But so is this.
No matter who we are playing, we will have the best player on the floor.
Alright except for Jokic, maybe Luka. But we know Shai’s work ethic is maniacal. We know how much he likes to prove people wrong, put narratives to rest, silence his critics. I think Shai is going to come into these playoffs and just absolute dominate at every stage of the game.
He’s already been doing it all year, against whatever defender the opposing team wants to throw at him. He’s dropped 30, he’s dropped 40, he’s dropped defenders, he’s dropped game winning buckets, he has set up this expectation for us. This is his coming out party, this is the stage he needs to announce himself not only a star, or an up and coming player. Nah, bump that. This dude is a superstar, a transcendent talent, a skillset that is unique, a demeanor that does not waver. This is going to be a statement, an announcement, a coronation, an alert, and final notice that Shai is here at the top of the league, and he isn’t going anywhere. He has arrived.
And just like Shai’s arrival, so shall it be the Oklahoma City Thunder’s.
This team is built for the postseason. This roster is built for competition. This squad thrives in adversity.
They have every excuse not to win it all. They’re too young. They overachieved. They needed this loss. But all season long, this team has flipped the script on every excuse given to them.
Chet could have sat games, but he played all 82. Cason could’ve developed in the G league, like most rookies do. Instead, he also played rotational minutes in all 82 games. Isaiah Joe could have been just a 3 point shooter, but he’s also top-10 in charges taken. Jaylin Williams could have sulked in the fact he didn’t get much playing time early on, but, instead, he stayed with it and became one of the Thunder’s most impactful players post all-star break. Josh Giddey could’ve let his off court drama, and his ego get the best of him when things were at their worst. Instead, he changed his mentality and play style, and now, and he and the team are thriving. Aaron Wiggins could have let the fact that he was the 55th pick, or the fact that he was still catching DNP’s early this season affect his game, but he stepped up every minute he’s on the court and is now widely considered one of the most underrated players in basketball.
This team doesn’t care how many MVP’s are in the way. This team doesn’t care about how many games they have or haven’t played in the playoffs. This team doesn’t care about how young they are. This team doesn’t care about the haters, the expectations, the predictions, or the assumptions about them. This team doesn’t need your excuses.
They have what they need, and they’re ready to rise to the occasion once more in the quest for 16 wins.
And with every pass, dribble, three pointer, dunk, crossover, block, steal, and scream at the raucous crowd of Loud City, they will play the game like they belong here. They will play the game with dominance and defiance.
Last season, the play-in tournament had huge significance for the Oklahoma City Thunder because they were in it. The 40-42 Thunder went into the play-in as the 10th seed, facing the New Orleans Pelicans in the 9/10 match-up. The good guys won a close game, 123-118, as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and Lu Dort combined to score 90 points. Next up, they faced the loser of the 7/8 match-up, the Minnesota Timberwolves. The size of Minnesota overwhelmed the Thunder and they bowed out of the tournament after a 120-95 loss.
Fast forward nearly a year later, and the play-in tournament this season still has huge significance for the Thunder…but for different reasons. Instead of being participants, the Thunder are now at the top of the West, waiting to see who they will face in the first round. Here’s a look at the two play-in games and how the teams in them match-up against themselves.
Game 1 (7/8 match-up) – Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
When: Tuesday, 16 April 2024 at 6:30pm CST
Where: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
Season Series: Lakers won the season series 3-1
Dec. 7th – 133-89 (Los Angeles)
Dec. 31st – 129-109 (New Orleans)
Feb. 9th – 139-122 (Los Angeles)
Apr. 14th – 124-118 (Los Angeles)
The Set-Up
It may not seem like it, but this match-up has been brewing for a while now. If you remember back to the In-Season Tournament semi-finals in December, LeBron James and the Lakers completely embarrassed Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans. The reactions after this game were peak “does Zion even care?” and “does Zion want to play in New Orleans?”. Since that game, though, Williamson has taken it upon himself to get into better shape and to add more wrinkles to his game (point Zion). The Pelicans put together a good run in the second half of the season, but fell apart a little at the end due to Brandon Ingram’s injury. Ingram returned for the season finale against the Lakers, but the Pelicans lost and they plummeted to the 7th seed behind Phoenix.
Game 2 (9/10 match-up) – Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
When: Tuesday, 16 April 2024 at 9:00pm CST
Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
Season Series: Series tied 2-2, but Sacramento won the tie-breaker due to a better division record
Oct. 27th – 122-114 (Golden State)
Nov. 1st – 102-101 (Golden State)
Nov. 28th – 124-123 (Sacramento)
Jan. 25th – 134-133 (Sacramento)
The Set-Up
The NBA has to be salivating with these West play-in games. Not only did the Warriors and Kings match-up in one of the more memorable series in last season’s playoffs, but they’ve also had 3 consecutive meetings this year decided by one point. This game is literally “win or go home”. Does this game put the final nail in the Warriors’ coffin? Or does Sacramento go into an offseason with a plethora of questions after seemingly being on the path to contention? Whatever the result, it definitely makes for must-see TV. You can bet the Thunder will be watching.
I’ve never solved the puzzle that is the Rubik Cube. I try and then eventually just give up. And I’ve never really done a deep dive into how to solve it either. But to some people, the Rubik Cube became an obsession. They researched it, spoke to people who had solved it before, and kept trying. Eventually, they figured the trick to the Cube and solved it. Now, you have people that can solve a Rubik Cube in less than a minute.
This season has been a lot like the solving of the Rubik Cube for the Thunder. Some teams flummoxed OKC early on, but through research (game film) and speaking with experts (Coach Daigneault), the Thunder have begun to figure teams out. Denver completely demolished the Thunder early in the season. Then the Thunder won the next three. Sacramento has given OKC issues for the past few seasons. The Thunder now seem to have figured that puzzle out. Houston plays like world-beaters every time their opponent has OKC written on their jersey. The Thunder turned a 16-point deficit into a 13-point victory on Sunday. Here’s hoping the puzzle of bad starts against Houston gets solved tonight.
This is the third of four meetings this season between these two teams. Houston dominated OKC in their first meeting in Houston, winning 110-101 (it wasn’t that close). OKC returned the favor on Sunday, winning 123-110. Their final meeting of the season will be on March 27th.
Magic Numbers
To lock up the 10th seed (play-in guaranteed) – 16
To lock up the 6th seed (playoffs guaranteed) – 19
Betting Info
Line: OKC -9.5
O/U: 235.5
Injury Report
OKC
None
HOU
Steven Adams (knee) – OUT
Tari Eason (lower leg) – OUT
Three Big Things
The Josh Giddey conundrum – The Houston Rockets were the first team this season to really lean on the “put the center on Giddey and let them roam” defense that OKC has been seeing over the past two months. In Sunday’s game, the Thunder involved Giddey in a lot more action around the floor (pick and rolls, off-ball action, etc) to cause the defense to react to the movement. The beautiful thing about a home and home is that it almost has the feel of a playoff series where adjustments are made from game to game. It will be interesting to see how Houston adjusts to OKC putting Giddey in motion on the offensive end.
Attack the paint – Houston has prioritized in long-winged perimeter defenders such as Tari Eason, Dillon Brooks, Jabari Smith Jr, and Amen Thompson. Where they lack is on the interior. While it may be a chore in getting into the paint, once they arrive, there isn’t much stopping from getting to the rim. For as good as Alperen Sengun has been on the offensive end, the defensive struggles are starting to become more and more apparent with every passing day.
Gordon Hayward – While it has looked a little clunky, I think the Hayward trade will turn out to be very successful for the Thunder. He has yet to take a three in the three games he has played with OKC. That means one of two things for me: either Hayward is still figuring out where on the floor to be in order to compliment OKC’s big 3 or defenders are staying closer to Hayward than they would someone like, oh, I don’t know, Josh Giddey, and giving the big 3 more space to operate. I’m calling my shot: Hayward hits two 3-pointers tonight.
All-Star Weekend is in the rear view. And all in all, it was a fun weekend for Thunder fans.
Cason Wallace helped bring Team Pau back from its early deficit to Team Detlef, and was then scapegoated for not being able to carry a team of top 3 picks back from the early hole it dug itself.
Chet Holmgren contributed to Team Jalen’s ultimate victory in a variety of ways. Layups, blocks, windmills. Just not lobs. Maybe just catch those for now, Chettar Bob.
Jalen Williams showed he is a 2-way demon, knocking down middies, 3-balls, spreading the ball around, being an on-ball pest, and off-ball menace. All in route to knocking down the game winning 3-pointer, showing the world what “Dub Time” is. Dub, indeed.
Then of course, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put on a show in his first (hopefully of many) starts in the All-Star game. The antithesis of his game was on full display. Instead of acrobatic finishes through contact and an assault of mid-range jumpers, it was an uncharacteristically scorching hot 7/10 shooting from the 3 point line and an array of high flying dunks, including a self alley-oop off the glass… IN TRAFFIC!
Yes, All-Star Weekend couldn’t have gone better for Thunder fans, sans Isaiah Joe being in the 3-point contest. And the weekend’s series of events is enough to get the fans excited for the return from All-Star break on Thursday against our rivals, the Los Angeles Clippers. But through the excitement of the break, people have forgotten that the Thunder may or may not have added the piece that takes this team from young and fun overachievers, to bonafide contenders in the Western Conference.
Last week, the Thunder…
SIGNED BISMACK BIYOMBO!
That’s right! We are getting Bizzy with it! With our big Biyombro, we will be standing on Bizness for 48 minutes. *angry emoji with smoke coming out of nose*
As excited as I am for Biyombo, because of his ability to fill a role and his ability to raise the overall vibes for any locker room, it’s another move that this article is based around.
The trade that sent Tre Mann, Vasilije Micic, and Davis Bertans to Charlotte in exchange for none other than Gordon Hayward.
This trade is already a sore subject for Thunder fans. Tre had become a fan favorite, from his highlight reel dunks and stepback, to his fun and vibey personality on the bench and online. There were many (yours, truly included) that were sad to see him go. He has done well in his opportunities with the Hornets since then, making it hurt just a little more.
Micic, while he hasn’t been as consistent, has flashed many moments that have Thunder fans envying the former Euroleague MVP for the playoff run. And then you have Bertans, who has been fine, I guess.
On the Thunder side, we haven’t as much seen Hayward in a Thunder jersey. But I’ve been watching some film on him from this season. Not as a Celtic or during the Obama administration in Utah. No, from the 2023-24 NBA season, just to clear things up. While the name isn’t as big, flashy, or coveted as some of the other names around the league, his tape tells me Hayward is going to fit this team seamlessly.
Playmaker:
Not including his rookie year, Gordo (gotta find a nickname for this guy, let me live) hasn’t averaged less than 3 assists per game. This season, before he got hurt, he was averaging 4.6 assists per game. Which would be 2nd highest in his career (and .1 more than Josh Giddey has…).
There’s not much flashy about Gorgon’s passing. He doesn’t really bring the ball up the court and he doesn’t try to pretend to be Steve Nash. While he doesn’t always make jaw dropping, high level reads, he is constantly moving the ball and often times creating scoring opportunities for his teammates as the secondary, or even, tertiary creator.
While he isn’t necessarily a maestro with the basketball, Hayward can more than hold his own as a playmaker.
He gets it done in a variety of ways. Off the drive, off the catch, touch passes, in transition, dump offs, entry passes, the whole shebang.
Despite what the video above would lead you to believe, Hayward’s passes don’t lead to buckets 100% of the time, I’m sorry to deceive you.
But what’s important, and why he fits with the Thunder in this regard is, the ball doesn’t stick with him. There is no record scratch. He isn’t a ball stopper. He simply gets the ball, he drives it, he shoots it, or he quickly makes a pass.
Based on the tape above he’s going to create a lot of easy looks for Chet, Dub, Ous, Wiggs, and Boom (Jaylin Williams for those uninitiated). But he’s also going to be able to put Shai, Giddey, and Dub in scoring, and playmaking scenarios just with his willingness and participation of moving the ball around.
Shut up and drive:
When you watch a guy like Shai or Jalen Williams, you always hear the commentators talk about how relentless they are with their straight line drives to the basket. Shai has led the league in total drives going on 4 seasons, and even in his first season with the team, he still ranked 10th in the league. Dub, has a bit more variety to his game with the willingness to shoot a higher volume from deep, but particularly in late game situations, the gearshift is on D for him as well.
If you watch Gordon Bombay (yeah, that one felt wrong) you can tell he’s cut from that same cloth. While he can’t even smell the exhaust from Shai’s tailpipe at 23.9 drives per game, he is not far behind from Dub (12.6) with 10.8 drives per game.
While he adds some variety to his game in post work, catch and shoot, etc., a lot of his playmaking, as evidenced by the video in the playmaking section, is dependent of his drives.
Even at age 33, Hayward is a strong driver to the basket.
It’s no wonder he is constantly driving, as the Warden (I saw it on Twitter/X, I’m not married to it) is shooting an impressive 69.3% at the rim this year. To put that into perspective, Shai is shooting 66.5%. Dub is shooting 66.3%. Chet is shooting 71.7%. And the finishing god squad of Cason, Ous, and Joe are shooting 72.8, 73.9, 76.5 respectively. And since you keep bugging me, Giddey is shooting 55.2%.
Cut to the chase:
Wiggs made his early career off of knowing how to cut to the basket. OKC has plenty other really good cutters. Dub, Cason, Kenny, and even Giddey have shown some juice as cutters this year.
He’s no Edward Scissorshands, but my Hayward son (you see it) is a stealthy good cutter, and sneaky effective at it. Snake eyes (yeah this is bad, just having fun with the last sentence) averages 1.47 points per possession, while shooting 75%, on cuts but only at a frequency of 4.5%. For perspective, Shai is averaging 1.67 PPP on 80.8% shooting on 2% frequency. The aforementioned Aaron Wiggins is shockingly averaging only 1.3 PPP on 64.7% shooting, but on a team leading 15.6% frequency.
Hayward is literally playing Fruit Ninja with NBA defenses.
LaMelo Ball is a phenomenal playmaker. But he is one man. The Thunder’s entire roster has some playmaking juice. Pair that with his basketball IQ and understanding of space, and you have a smart and opportune cutter to add to the death by 1000 basket cuts.
There are a lot of things to like about Hayward. His shooting, while percentages are a tad down at 36.1%, he is shooting 40.8% on catch and shoot 3’s, 41.2% from the corners, and 42.4% on open 3-point jumpers.
He is averaging almost 5 rebounds per game, which will help a bit with that side of things. As well as averaging 1.1 steals per game. With guys like Dort and Dub at the point of attack and Chet as the back line, Hayward should be able to generate a number of steals for this already stingy defense.
Overall, the fit is very nice. And the price for the trade, with the flexibility to possibly re-sign him moving forward, makes the deal a no brainer.
Gordon Hayward is the type of player that can add one more punch to the Thunder’s push to the finals.
And if all I’ve said above comes to fruition, that punch may just end up being a Haymaker.
Hmmm, Haymaker.
I LIKE IT.
Special shoutout to @derthun_ and @homahoops for showing me the ways of the force and video editing. Be sure to follow them for great Thunder content. As well as me @ThunderChats, and my podcast @OKCTopicThunder. Thunder up.
The saying goes, “It’s a make or miss league”. When you are making the shots, things look beautiful. But when you are struggling to make the shots, what does your team rely upon? This is the question as the Thunder continue on in a season where the expectation is no longer just the play-in or the playoffs. The expectation is now high seed and playoff advancement. That question will become a lot louder because playoff teams will try their hardest to make the Thunder do the things that make them the most uncomfortable. Last night, the Lakers allowed players like Josh Giddey, Lu Dort, Jaylin Williams, and Cason Wallace to have open looks from deep. Combined, those four players shot 9/26 overall (34.6%) and 7/20 from deep (35%). The 3-point shooting was not terribly bad from that collective, but every shot that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Isaiah Joe don’t take, is a win for the defense.
This is the second of three meetings this season between these two teams. On December 21st, the Thunder beat the Clippers 134-115 in Oklahoma City, on a night where the Clippers were coming into town riding a 9-game win streak.
Betting Info
Line: LAC -5.5
O/U: 237.5
Injury Report
OKC
None
LAC
Moussa Diabate (hand) – OUT
Ivica Zubac (calf) – OUT
Three Big Things
Make Shots – Simple as that. Last night’s game turns out very differently if the guys just shoot their averages. The other team’s defense gets a little more comfortable camping out around the lane when the shots aren’t falling. Softening that by making shots will make life a little bit easier for SGA and Jalen Williams.
Chet – Holmgren is still figuring out the Rubix cube that is a couple of centers around the league (namely Anthony Davis and Domantas Sabonis). But tonight, with Ivica Zubac out, Chet will be facing the two-headed monster of Daniel Theis and Mason Plumlee. I, hopefully, only say that in jest. He should be due for a big game tonight.
Fire extinguisher – The Thunder once again face the Clippers as they come into this contest as one of the hottest teams in the league. Los Angeles has won 8 of their last 10 and is quickly moving up the standings in the West. As a team that the Thunder want to keep at bay, it will be interesting to see how the Thunder bounce back from yesterday’s loss.
Bonus – Just want to say “hi” to Russell Westbrook.
The grind. That arduous part of the season where you live life to the cadence of Kendrick Lamar’s song Swimming Pools.
Play a game (drank) Hop a plane (drank) Play a game (drank) Hop a plane (drank) One day rest (drank) Play a game (drank) Hop a plane (drank)
Over the next 20 days, the Thunder play 12 games in all four contiguous time-zones. There’s a reason why we are seeing funky line-ups and inconsistent play. Coach Mark Daigneault can’t risk completely tiring out the players that will likely be in the rotation come playoff time. That’s why you see a Lindy Waters III play a 20-minute stretch here or there. That’s why you see Vasilije Micic play a game and then not play another. While that keeps players fresh, it does tend to lend itself to inconsistent play on the floor. The hope is that all this will allow not just the team to be fresher come playoff time, but also, for more players to have seen time on the floor to get comfortable with whatever situation may be thrown their way in high-pressure games.
This is the first of two meetings between these two teams. They will face off again on March 8th in Oklahoma City.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -4.5
O/U: 233.5
Injury Report
OKC
Davis Bertans (illness) – Questionable
MIA
Jimmy Butler (toe) – OUT
Kyle Lowry (hand, illness) – Doubtful
Caleb Martin (ankle) – Doubtful
Dru Smith (knee) – OUT
Three Big Things
Pace – OKC’s pace of play is the 6th highest in the league. Miami’s is the 4th slowest. I think whoever plays their brand of basketball wins this game. If the Thunder are able to get into transition, they have the advantage. But if Miami allowed to muck things up and zone the Thunder into running a lot of half-court offense, it’ll definitely be to Miami’s advantage. Miami is that weird team that doesn’t get a lot of blocks (last in the league at just 3.3 a game), but does a good job a protecting the paint (13th best, allowing 48.6 points in the paint a game).
Josh Giddey – I actually think this could be a big game for Giddey as a connector piece. Miami will probably play a lot of zone, and having Giddey at the nail allows him to survey the floor and find the best possible option to eventually get a good shot.
A Rookie Duel – This game pits the reigning Rookies of the Month in Chet Holmgren and Jaime Jaquez Jr. For revered as Oklahoma City’s scouting department is, I think flowers should also be thrown in Miami’s direction for their scouting department also. It seems like they’ve got another good one in Jaquez Jr.
