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Dallas Mavericks vs. Thunder preview (Game 23 of 82)

Posted on December 5, 2025 by Alex Roig

Dallas Mavericks (8-15, 12th in the West) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (21-1, 1st in the West)
When: Friday, 05 December 2025 at 8:30pm CST
Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
TV: Prime Video
Offensive Rating: DAL: 107.6 (30th) / OKC: 119.0 (5th)
Defensive Rating: DAL: 111.3 (4th) / OKC: 103.8 (1st)
Net Rating: DAL: -3.8 (22nd) / OKC: 15.1 (1st)
Streaks: DAL: 3 W’s in a row, 5-5 in last 10 / OKC: 13 W’s in a row

The Set-Up

The decision for when to start a rebuild has to be an extremely difficult one for an organization. Sometimes, it’s self-inflicted. Sometimes, it’s thrust upon you unexpectedly. But it’s a decision fraught with potholes, pitfalls, and doubt. A decision that can set your franchise back years, possibly decades. And, yet, for most every team, it’s a decision that needs to be made once every 10-15 years. For Oklahoma City, the team knew they needed a refresh after the departure of Kevin Durant and the subsequent first round exits of the Russell Westbrook/Paul George-led teams. But that weird transitional season was also needed to get off the previous train and jump onto a new one. The season with Chris Paul, a newly acquired Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, rookie Lu Dort, potential 6th Man of the Year Dennis Schroder, and Steven Adams is one that lives happily in the minds of many Thunder fans, but also one that helped position the Thunder for what they currently are today.

Which brings me to the neighbors south of us, down I-35. Dallas is in a weird spot where they have some of the pieces needed to jump-start a rebuild (Cooper Flagg and Ryan Nembhard), but also are in a holding pattern with older stars such as Anthony Davis, Klay Thompson, and the currently injured Kyrie Irving. They aren’t winning, but they also aren’t losing enough. These next few months before the trade deadline will be very interesting in Dallas.

This is the 2nd of 3 meetings this season between these regional rivals. OKC won the first meeting 101-94, in Dallas, in a game that saw the Thunder big men dominate on the scoreboard and on the glass. Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Jaylin Williams combined to score 38 points and grab 30 rebounds, with 6 of those being offensive.

Betting Info, presented by FanDuel

Line: OKC -15
O/U: 229.5

Injury Report

OKC

Alex Caruso – OUT (quad)
Lu Dort – OUT (adductor strain)
Isaiah Hartenstein – OUT (calf)
Thomas Sorber – OFS (knee/ACL)
Nikola Topic – OUT (cancer treatment)

DAL

Dante Exum – OFS (knee)
Daniel Gafford – Questionable (ankle)
Kyrie Irving – OUT (knee/ACL)
Dereck Lively – OUT (foot)
PJ Washington – Questionable (ankle)

Three Big Things

Ryan Nembhard – Last season, in the Finals, no players on the Indiana Pacers, outside of Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakim, had more of an impact against the Thunder than Andrew Nembhard. Dallas decided to take a chance on Andrew’s younger brother, Ryan, as an undrafted free agent this past summer. And over the past four games, all starts, Ryan Nembhard has been balling out and leading the Mavericks to a 3-1 record over that stretch. Nembhard has been averaging 17 points, 7.5 assists to 1.3 turnovers, and shooting an absurd 65% from the field and 67% from three over that 4-game stretch. The one game where he did struggle during that 4-game stretch was against the Los Angeles Clippers, who have big rangy defenders like Kris Dunn who can make life difficult for a smaller point guard. With Dort and Alex Caruso out, that onus will fall on Cason Wallace and Ajay Mitchell.
Comfortable Dub – The more games Jalen Williams gets under his belt, the more comfortable and in rhythm he gets. He hit the 20 point mark in their last game against the Warriors, scoring 22 points. His playmaking has been in mid-season form, as he’s averaging over 6 assists per game in his first 3 games. And his shooting percentage was above 50% for the first time this season in their last game. Everyone is asking whether the Thunder should throw their hat into the Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstake, but honestly, Dub coming back may be their important “acquisition” this season.
Upset Potential – The Mavericks are coming into this game the hottest they’ve been all season. They are riding a 3-game winning streak, Nembhard, Cooper Flagg, and Anthony Davis are all balling out, and Dallas’ defense has been consistent. You can almost always throw records out when it comes to regional rivalries and the Thunder have the biggest target on their back this season. OKC has been a little unfocused over the past few games and if that continues, it could come back to bite them in the butt this game.

Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers preview (Game 61 of 82)

Posted on March 4, 2024 by Alex Roig

Oklahoma City Thunder (42-18, 1st in the West) @ Los Angeles Lakers (33-29, 10th in the West)
When: Monday, 04 March 2024 at 9:30pm CST
Where: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
Offensive Rating – LAL: 114.7 (17th) / OKC: 119.3 (3rd)
Defensive Rating – LAL: 115.3 (17th) / OKC: 111.4 (4th)
Net Rating – LAL: -0.6 (19th) / OKC: 8.0 (2nd)

The Set-Up

Back at the top. While the Thunder have been battling for the top stop the entire season, they haven’t really done that great of a job of holding on to the title when they get it. Tonight presents another opportunity to hold on to 1st place in the Western Conference. But a loss tonight, coupled with a likely Minnesota victory (they play Portland), could knock OKC back to #2, sitting tied with Denver in the standings. Luckily, OKC owns the tiebreaker with Denver and would get the higher seeding.

This is the fourth and final meeting of the regular season between these two teams. The Thunder won the first meeting 133-110 in OKC in late November. The Lakers returned the favor a couple weeks later, again in OKC, winning 129-120. The Lakers then beat OKC in Los Angeles in January, 112-105.

Magic Numbers

To lock up the 10th seed (play-in guaranteed) – 12
To lock up the 6th seed (playoffs guaranteed) – 16

Betting Info

Line: OKC -1.5
O/U: 238.5

Injury Report

OKC

Jaylin Williams (knee) – Day to Day

LAL

Colin Castleton (wrist) – OUT
Anthony Davis (achilles) – Probable
LeBron James (ankle) – Questionable
Cam Reddish (ankle) – Probable
Jarred Vanderbilt (foot) – OUT
Gabe Vincent (knee) – OUT
Christian Wood (knee) – OUT

Three Big Things

Physicality – It’s funny because there are a lot of things that OKC and the Lakers do very similarly, despite the difference in their records. They are both poor rebounding teams who push the pace and shoot efficiently. Where they differ is in the amount of physicality the players are able to exert. LeBron James has game worn jerseys that are older than some of the players on the Thunder. Chet Holmgren was 10 years old when Anthony Davis started his career. It will be on the Thunder’s young core to either be quicker than the Lakers for the majority of the game or be purposefully more physical than the Lakers.
Get in transition – The Lakers are the 5th worst team at stopping fast break points. The Thunder generate a lot of their offense in transition. It would benefit them to get fast break opportunities throughout the game and take advantage of them.
Pack the paint – The Lakers are the worst team at generating points from the 3-point line. They score 55.1% of their points from 2-point territory (2nd in the league) and only 29.2% of their points from deep. The Thunder’s defensive scheme plays into this.

Thunder @ Los Angeles Clippers preview (Game 40 of 82)

Posted on January 16, 2024 by Alex Roig

Oklahoma City Thunder (27-12, 2nd in the West) @ Los Angeles Clippers (25-14, 4th in the West)
When: Tuesday, 16 January 2024 at 9:00pm CST
Where: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
Offensive Rating – LAC: 119.0 (6th) / OKC: 119.8 (4th)
Defensive Rating – LAC: 113.7 (13th) / OKC: 111.1 (5th)
Net Rating – LAC: 5.3 (6th) / OKC: 8.7 (2nd)

The Set-Up

The saying goes, “It’s a make or miss league”. When you are making the shots, things look beautiful. But when you are struggling to make the shots, what does your team rely upon? This is the question as the Thunder continue on in a season where the expectation is no longer just the play-in or the playoffs. The expectation is now high seed and playoff advancement. That question will become a lot louder because playoff teams will try their hardest to make the Thunder do the things that make them the most uncomfortable. Last night, the Lakers allowed players like Josh Giddey, Lu Dort, Jaylin Williams, and Cason Wallace to have open looks from deep. Combined, those four players shot 9/26 overall (34.6%) and 7/20 from deep (35%). The 3-point shooting was not terribly bad from that collective, but every shot that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Isaiah Joe don’t take, is a win for the defense.

This is the second of three meetings this season between these two teams. On December 21st, the Thunder beat the Clippers 134-115 in Oklahoma City, on a night where the Clippers were coming into town riding a 9-game win streak.

Betting Info

Line: LAC -5.5
O/U: 237.5

Injury Report

OKC

None

LAC

Moussa Diabate (hand) – OUT
Ivica Zubac (calf) – OUT

Three Big Things

Make Shots – Simple as that. Last night’s game turns out very differently if the guys just shoot their averages. The other team’s defense gets a little more comfortable camping out around the lane when the shots aren’t falling. Softening that by making shots will make life a little bit easier for SGA and Jalen Williams.
Chet – Holmgren is still figuring out the Rubix cube that is a couple of centers around the league (namely Anthony Davis and Domantas Sabonis). But tonight, with Ivica Zubac out, Chet will be facing the two-headed monster of Daniel Theis and Mason Plumlee. I, hopefully, only say that in jest. He should be due for a big game tonight.
Fire extinguisher – The Thunder once again face the Clippers as they come into this contest as one of the hottest teams in the league. Los Angeles has won 8 of their last 10 and is quickly moving up the standings in the West. As a team that the Thunder want to keep at bay, it will be interesting to see how the Thunder bounce back from yesterday’s loss.
Bonus – Just want to say “hi” to Russell Westbrook.

Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers preview (Game 39 of 82)

Posted on January 15, 2024 by Alex Roig

Oklahoma City Thunder (27-11, 2nd in the West) @ Los Angeles Lakers (19-21, 11th in the West)
When: Monday, 15 January 2024 at 9:30pm CST
Where: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
Offensive Rating – LAL: 112.2 (24th) / OKC: 120.2 (4th)
Defensive Rating – LAL: 114.0 (14th) / OKC: 111.0 (3rd)
Net Rating – LAL: -1.8 (21st) / OKC: 9.2 (2nd)

The Set-Up

Listen, I’m still reeling from Saturday. The love you guys showed us on Saturday was amazing. Getting to meet many of you guys at The Parlor and then hanging out at the game was a frickin’ movie. Thank you for the motivation to continue showing up and putting together this page and this podcast. We could not do it without you guys. Here’s to many more years of love and success. Now, before I get too sappy, there is a game tonight.

This is the third of four meetings this season between these two games. The Thunder won the first meeting, 133-110, back on November 30th. The Lakers returned the favor on December 23rd, winning in OKC, 129-120. Their final game of the season is on March 4th, 2024.

Betting Info

Line: OKC -3.5
O/U: 237.5

Injury Report

OKC

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (knee) – Questionable

LAL

Anthony Davis (ankle) – Questionable
LeBron James (ankle) – Probable
Cam Reddish (knee) – OUT
D’Angelo Russell (illness) – Questionable
Gabe Vincent (knee) – OUT

Three Big Things

SGA – When the day first started, the Lakes were favored. But as the day progressed, the line shifted towards favoring the Thunder. Which likely means, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be available to play tonight. If he is, watch out, because SGA loves to play under the bright lights in LA.
Physicality – One of the biggest issues the Thunder face when battling the Lakers, is their size up front. Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Jarred Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura, Jaxson Hayes, and Christian Woods are just large individuals. And when they play against the Thunder, who start a “still thin” Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, they do struggle, at times, to match the size and strength of other teams. Expect Jaylin Williams and Kenrich Williams to play some minutes in this game.
Defending Without Fouling – The Lakers attempt the 7th most amount of free throws in the league at 24.4 attempts per game. The Thunder, on the other hand, foul the 10th most in the league. Players like James and Davis are foul-magnets and the Thunder have a tendency to be hyper-aggressive defensively, which can lead to dumb fouls and an unbalanced free throw count between the two teams. The Thunder have to play their game defensively, but play it intelligently.

Topic: Thunder Podcast: Antonio Daniels Interview

Posted on February 20, 2019 by Alex Roig

Topic Thunder The Topic: Thunder podcast sat down with Fox Sports (and Oklahoma City Thunder) analyst Antonio Daniels to discuss the following:

Markieff Morris’ fit with the Thunder
The importance of stability for Oklahoma City
The Anthony Davis saga in New Orleans
The best (worst?) match-up for Golden State
Voicemail questions from our listeners
And so much more…

Thank you for listening to our podcast. You can catch the post-game recaps on the 2018-19 Schedule page on this site. You can listen to us anywhere you get your podcasts. Please leave us a 5-star review on Itunes if you would like. That really helps with our ranking on Itunes. You can follow us and interact with us on Twitter (@OKCTopicThunder). Thank you for listening, and as always, Thunder Up!

Pelicans vs. Thunder Primer (Preseason Game 2)

Posted on October 6, 2017 by Alex Roig

pelicans vs.

When: Friday, 06 October 2017 at 7:00 pm CST
Where: Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, OK
TV: okcthunder.com or the OKC Thunder app (stream)
Radio: WWLS The Sports Animal (98.1 FM, 640 AM, 930 AM (Spanish))

One preseason game down. Oklahoma City Thunder fans finally got to see what Paul George and Carmelo Anthony will look like in Thunder uniforms. It didn’t always flow smoothly, but the set-up for something bigger was there. The two of the Big 3 who played put their vast array of skills on display. George showed his overall ability (offense and defense) and Anthony showed his shot-making ability.

Were there hiccups? Of course. George and Anthony overpassed a little, leading to a couple turnovers. In addition, they seemed a little lost on how to use Steven Adams. The chemistry developed between Russell Westbrook and Adams took about two seasons to actually produce fruit. It would be foolish to think the new players on the team would have immediate chemistry with the old players on the team. Continue reading →

Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans preview (game 49 of 82)

Posted on February 4, 2015 by Alex Roig

When: Wednesday, 04 February 2015 at 7:00 PM CST
Where: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA

I believe this season comes down to the 12 games in February. Do anything less than 9-3, and it becomes harder and harder for the Thunder to catch up to the Pelicans and Suns. Here’s the catch, though. Those 3 losses cannot come against the Pelicans and Suns (2 games against New Orleans and 1 game against Phoenix this month). If the Thunder lose any of the two remaining games against the Pelicans, they lose the season series and essentially fall a game behind New Orleans if both teams finish with the same record. Conversely, they’ve won both games against the Suns and need one more victory to clinch the season series (and catch up to them in the standings). It’s go time. The excuse that the Thunder have plenty of time to catch up is quickly evaporating with every game.

This is the third of four games between these two teams. New Orleans has won the first two games of the series. In the first game, the Thunder’s rhythm was thrown off by the return of Kevin Durant to the line-up and they lost 104-112. In the second game, with Durant out with an ankle injury, the Thunder battled hard until late in the 4th quarter. But critical miscues by Russell Westbrook in that final quarter led to the team losing 99-101. Kevin Durant will be out for this one with a sprained left big toe.

The Opponent

The Pelicans come into the game with a 26-22 record, currently good for 9th in the Western Conference. In their last game, the Pelicans defeated the Atlanta Hawks to bring the Hawk’s 19-game win streak to an end. New Orleans features a balanced team with interior scoring and perimeter shooters. They are middle of the pack in most statistical categories, but find ways to win close games, as evidenced by their small margin of victory (+1.4). They usually led by Jrue Holiday, but he has been out for the past 2 weeks with a stress reaction in his ankle. In his stead, New Orleans has used a combination of Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon in the backcourt. Gordon has remained relatively healthy since coming back from a shoulder injury that caused him to miss 21 games. Dante Cunningham has slid into the starting SF position and has put up 5.9 points and 4.2 rebounds in his last 10 games. Up front, Anthony Davis continues to play at an MVP-like pace and Omer Asik is still big. The bench features 6th Man of the Year candidate Ryan Anderson, sharpshooter Quincy Pondexter, and big man Alexis Ajinca.

Probable Starting Line-ups

New Orleans Pelicans

PG – Tyreke Evans
SG – Eric Gordon
SF – Dante Cunningham
PF – Anthony Davis
C – Omer Asik

Oklahoma City Thunder

PG – Russell Westbrook
SG – Dion Waiters
SF – Andre Roberson
PF – Serge Ibaka
C – Steven Adams

3 Keys to the Game

1. Anthony Davis and Tyreke Evans – In two games this season, Davis has absolutely dominated Serge Ibaka. He’s averaged 31.5 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, 3.5 blocks, and 3 steals per game in those two meetings. Davis has gone the Brow equivalent of Slim Reaper on the Thunder this season. For the team to have a chance with Durant, they are going to have to limit Davis somehow. Whether that’s by double teaming (something the Thunder never do) or by Ibaka just playing better man to man defense, something has to be done to prevent Davis from getting video game stat lines against us. Conversely, Evans has shredded the Thunder defense by getting into the paint at will. Whether its Westbrook, Roberson, or Waiters defending, they’ll have to do a better job of staying in front of Evans.

2. Rebounding – The Pelicans are the fourth best offensive rebounding team in the league at 12.2 a game. Where they are most dangerous is when those extra opportunities lead to 3-point shots from Anderson, Gordon, or Pondexter while the defense is left scrambling. And it’s not just Davis and Asik. Tyreke Evans does a good job rebounding from the wing and Anderson and Ajinca do a good job of offensive rebounding off the bench. It’ll be very important for Ibaka, Adams, and Perkins to box out and not allow the Pelicans any more opportunities than necessary.

3. Dion Waiters – The “Dion Waiters as a starter” experiment got off to a rousing start in the last game. He scored 24 on 9-15 shooting and had a big part in Westbrook’s triple double in that game. He added a dimension to the starting line-up that is usually only seen when both Westbrook and Durant are healthy. He’ll likely have to have a similar game tonight for the Thunder to win.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans preview (Game 28 of 82)

Posted on December 21, 2014 by Alex Roig

When: Sunday, 21 December 2014 at 6:00 PM CST
Where: Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, OK

The Oklahoma City Thunder stand on the precipice of reaching the summit of the mountain that looked a lot more daunting at the beginning of the month than it does now. Staring at a 5-12 record on December 1st, and looking up in the standings, the Thunder found themselves in an unfamiliar position. After finally getting healthy, the Thunder have gone on to win 8 of their first 10 games in December, to push themselves within a half game of the 8th position in the Western Conference. This would be the first step in them climbing themselves out of the hole the injuries in the beginning of the season created.

This is the 2nd of 4 meetings between the Thunder and Pelicans. The Pelican won the first meeting of the year 112-104. That game was the first one to feature both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in the same line-up. A horrible 2nd quarter doomed the Thunder in that game and they could never fully recover.

The Opponent

The New Orleans Pelicans are the classic “team growing into itself” team. They do great against lesser competition, but don’t have the experience yet to win the close games against the better teams. That’s the main reason for their 13-13 record. The teams they have victories against have a combined winning percentage of .390. In their losses, the victors are boasting a combined winning percentage of .706. Looking at that, it’s easy to say that the Pelicans are improving, but nowhere close to being elite yet. They have a top 5 offense according to offensive rating, but have the 25th ranked defense in terms of defensive rating. One step forward, one step back equals a .500 record. They are led by point guard Jrue Holiday, who is having a good season averaging nearly 16 points and 7 assists per game. Tyreke Evans and Luke Babbitt fill the wings and give defenders a contrasting look. While Evans is more of the slasher, Babbitt has made a career of being a good 3-point shooter (49.1% on 2.6 attempts per game). Up front, Anthony Davis has regressed a bit from supernova earlier this season down to superstar, but he is still a match-up nightmare on both ends of the court for the Thunder. Omer Asik has increased his rebounding and is currently grabbing 10.7 boards per game (3.8 of those offensive rebounds). Off the bench, Austin Rivers has been playing some of the most consistent basketball of his career, Ryan Anderson is shooting 34.7% from deep on 6.8 attempts per game and Dante Cunningham has been providing a spark since he joined the team 10 games ago.

Probable Starting Line-ups

New Orleans Pelicans

PG – Jrue Holiday
SG – Tyreke Evans*
SF – Luke Babbitt
PF – Anthony Davis
C – Omer Asik

* – Tyreke Evans is dealing with a knee bruise and is on the 2nd game of a back to back. May be a candidate to sit out.

Oklahoma City Thunder

PG – Russell Westbrook
SG – Andre Roberson
SF – Perry Jones*
PF – Serge Ibaka
C – Steven Adams

* – Kevin Durant will be a game-time decision with a sprained ankle.

COTN: oboy – here for #COTN

3 Keys to the Game

1. Rebounding – Anthony Davis and Omer Asik are averaging 21 rebounds per game between them and can turn a game with their offensive rebounding (6.6 per game). Even their wing players, Evans and Anderson average 5.3 boards per game each. Serge Ibaka, Steven Adams, and Nick Collison need to do their best to box out the Pelican big men and not give them extra opportunities.

2. Perimeter Defense – While the Pelicans aren’t necessarily known as a great 3-point shooting team, they have certain players (Anderson, Babbitt, Holiday) that can get hot and turn a game. In the last game, the score was tied at 43 midway through the 2nd quarter, before Luke Babbitt opened the flood gates with 2 consecutive 3-pointers. The Pelicans caught fire the rest of the first half and didn’t look back from there.

3. Team you need to beat – If injuries (hopefully small) are going to resurface throughout the season, then the Thunder may be in play for positions 6-10 in Western Conference. If this is the case, the Thunder need to beat those teams that they are battling against for those spots. Tie-breakers can be extremely important when you are battling for positioning at the end of the season. The Pelicans are already one up on the Thunder and would love nothing more than to force a split against them for the season series.

Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans preview (Game 18 of 82)

Posted on December 2, 2014 by Alex Roig

When: Tuesday, 02 December 2014 at 7:00 PM CST
Where: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA

Now, the rest of the season begins. I used to make fun of teams that had high expectations at the beginning of the season, only to see their season crumple under a calamity of issues. The most recent example I can think of is the 2012-13 Los Angeles Lakers. That was the first year of the Kobe Bryant-Steve Nash-Dwight Howard triumvirate that was supposed to bring a title back to LA. Of course, as we know, injuries and chemistry issues completely derailed that season. What was comical though, was every time the Lakers put a win streak together, the general theme in the postgame interviews was, “the season starts now.” Well, the Thunder are in that same boat now. Is it still early in the season? Yes. But in the extremely competitive Western Conference, you can’t fall too far behind, no matter when in the season it is.

The Thunder have a collection of teams that they need to target in order to get into the playoff race. The Grizzlies, Spurs, Rockets, Trailblazers, and Warriors are probably too far ahead of the Thunder for them to worry about them at this point. It’s the team in the 6th – 11th positions, the Kings, Nuggets, Pelicans, Suns, Clippers, and Mavericks, that the Thunder need to chase. Every game against those teams from here on out is basically a must-win game.

This is the first of 4 meetings between the Thunder and the Pelicans this season. The Thunder won 2 of 3 meetings last season, with each team winning by at least 10 points.

The Opponent

The Pelicans currently find themselves at 7-8, riding a three game losing streak coming into this game. The got off to a 7-5 start, but feasted mainly on bottom tier teams. Their record against teams with a record of .500 or above is 2-8. They are middle of the road in most categories and are just now starting to find out who they really are. They have a bonafide superstar and MVP candidate in Anthony Davis and are starting to tailor a team around his strengths. Leading that charge is point guard Jrue Holiday, who is coming off an injury-plagued first season in New Orleans. He has bounced back well, averaging 15.5 points, 6.2 assists, and 1.2 steals per game this season. The wing positions have always been a source of trouble for these Pelicans. Eric Gordon is always hurt, Austin Rivers is not that good, and Tyreke Evans has bouts of inconsistency. Up front, the Pelicans have one of the more dynamic front courts in the league. In Davis, they have a 5-tool player who is top-10 in five of the six major statistical categories (points, rebounds, FG%, blocks, and steals) and leads the league in PER (33.4). Omer Asik’s biggest contribution to the team may be the fact that he allows Davis to play most of his minutes at PF, where he is most comfortable playing. Asik does a good job of being a big body and grabbing offensive rebounds. Off the bench, the Pelicans are a bit thin, even with Ryan Anderson being a 6th Man of the Year candidate.

Probable Starting Line-Ups

New Orleans Pelicans

PG – Jrue Holiday
SG – Austin Rivers
SF – Tyreke Evans
PF – Anthony Davis
C – Omer Asik

Oklahoma City Thunder

PG – Russell Westbrook
SG – Andre Roberson
SF – Kevin Durant
PF – Serge Ibaka
C – Steven Adams

5 Keys to the Game

1. Kevin Durant – Scott Brooks said Durant will start and will play about 30 minutes. As I said in the previous preview with Westbrook’s return: Welcome back. Now let’s napalm the league, sir.

2. Pack the Paint – If the Thunder have to pick their poison with this team, the best bet is to pack the paint. New Orleans doesn’t have any reliable 3-point shooters, outside of Ryan Anderson. Most of the offense is generated through Davis inside, Anderson shooting, and on Holiday and Evans dribble drives. While Evans, Holiday, and Rivers are capable shooters (all above 30% from 3-point territory), they are nowhere near as reliable as Anderson. Luckily, the Thunder’s specialty is defending the paint…..and unfortunately, leaving 3-point shooters open.

3. Protect the ball – The Pelicans are the best ball protectors in the league. They only average 10.7 turnovers per game. In their wins, the difference in turnover has been a +5.6, in favor of the Pelicans. In their losses, the turnover difference has been in the Pelicans favor by only +1.8. New Orleans is going to take care of the ball. What you can’t do is allow them extra possessions because of your miscues.

4. The Returns of Lance Thomas and Anthony Morrow to New Orleans – Morrow and Thomas return back to the site where they played last season. One of the things that Durant’s return negates is Thomas’s “look at me now, New Orleans” moment as he is introduced in the opposing team’s starting line-up. Oh, what could’ve been. Enjoy the gumbo and beignets, gentlemen.

5. Never forget – Ahhh, look at Morrow being a good teammate.

House of (Lottery) Cards – The Thunder and the NBA Draft Reform

Posted on October 21, 2014 by Alex Roig

On Wednesday, the NBA Board of Governors will be voting on whether to change the format of the NBA Draft Lottery process. In the reform, the 14 non-playoff teams will still vie for lottery positioning in a lottery style system. What does change are the percentages to vie for the top 3 picks. In the current system, the team with the worst record has the highest chance (25%) of getting the number 1 pick, while the lottery team with the best record has the lowest chance (0.5%) of getting the number 1 pick. The basic gist of the current system is, the worser your record, the better your chances of obtaining a top 3 pick. In the proposed new system, the 4 teams with the worst records each have a 12% chance of getting the first pick, with the 5th worst team garnering an 11.5% chance, and the 6th worst team garnering a 10% chance, and on down the line. Even worse, in the new system, teams aren’t as protected as they are in the current system from free falling to a lower spot in the draft. Under the current system, the team with the worst record can not fall lower than the 4th pick. In the new proposed system, the team with the worst record has the possibility of falling all the way down to the 7th pick.

Free agency is to big market teams as the draft is to small market teams. Big market teams are at an advantage because they can not only build during free agency, but also in the draft if they are lucky enough. Unfortunately, small market teams can usually only build through the draft. For as great as Oklahoma City, Salt Lake City, Charlotte, New Orleans, and Milwaukee are as metropolises, they pale in comparison to the global cultural centers that are New York, Chicago, Miami, and Los Angeles.

The Thunder experienced this with Pau Gasol this offseason. While not necessarily a top 10 player, Gasol would have instantly made the Thunder the favorites to win the title in 2014-15. But when push came to shove, Gasol, having just completed a 7-year run with the Los Angeles Lakers, decided to go with the Chicago Bulls. One of the factors in his decision was the lack of cultural diversity in OKC. Whatever that is, when you compare OKC to Chicago, you kind of see what he is talking about. I don’t know when was the last time a small market team signed a marquee free agent (and by marquee, I mean a Top-20 player at the time of his free agency). The last one was probably when Peja Stojakovic signed with the New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets in the 2006 offseason. At the time, Stojakovic was a fringe top 20-30 player in the league, but was beginning to show the signs of being injury-prone. The Hornets, of course, overpaid, and injuries were a major theme of Stojakovic’s term with the Hornets.

With this new draft reform, the NBA is essentially decreasing the life blood of talent to small market teams. The cycle of success to rebuild and back to success occurs a lot more regularly for small market teams than it does for big market teams. Small market teams have to rebuild when times get rough, and hope that they don’t make a big mistake. Big market teams can simply reload when the well runs dry. Is it always successful? No. But if the same mismanagement of funds that occurred with the New York Knicks from 2005-2012 would’ve happened to occur in Milwaukee, you can rest assured that Milwaukee would either be under new ownership or would be playing in a different city. The draft is the harbinger of hope for small market teams. And this new draft reform would lessen the opportunity for small market teams to nab a franchise talent like Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, or Anthony Davis.

The ironic part of all this is that the team at the center of this change is a big market team. The visual tank job that has been the Philadelphia 76ers in the past season and a half is at the root of all the draft reform discussion. In the past 18 months, the 76ers have sent away any veteran asset they had for draft picks and cap space. And in the last two drafts, the Sixers have taken 3 players in the lottery that were either injured (Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid) or not intending to come to the NBA for at least two season (Dario Saric). Strategic tanking has always been a part of the rebuilding process. A rebuilding team wants to shed salary and obtain assets, while at the same time putting a “competitive” product on the floor. But Philadelphia has completely eschewed the competitive part of the equation, and has blatantly put a subpar product on the floor in order to build for the future. It is no different than other tank jobs, with the exception of the blatantness of it all.

With all this on the table, it would almost seem to be a given that at least 8 teams would be against this draft reform. Philadelphia, for sure, would be at the forefront. But stepping up to the podium has been Thunder GM Sam Presti. Surprisingly, Presti, of the championship contending Thunder, has been leading the charge against draft reform. You see, Presti knows what’s at stake. Under the current system, a couple seasons of drought can lead to gold if you draft well and spend your money wisely. But under the proposed system, those couple of seasons of drought can lead to gold or they can lead to iron pyrite. And while draft position is never an exact science, a lot more superstars are drafted in the top 5 picks than anywhere else in the draft. Presti is always looking ahead and knows that there will come a time when Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka will no longer be donning Thunder uniforms. It could be in the next 2-3 seasons, just like it could be in the next 10 seasons. But when that day comes, the Thunder will likely look to the draft to rebuild.

According to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo!Sports, Presti is struggling to come up with the six extra votes to block the 3/4 majority needed to pass the draft reform. Which is absolutely asinine to me. If those small market teams would realize how much more difficult it will be for them to land franchise talent with this change, it would seem like an easy decision for them to make. If anything, this is an opportunity for small market teams to flex a little muscle. Like Frank Underwood of House of Cards says, “There is no solace above or below. Only us – small, solitary, striving, battling one another. I pray to myself, for myself.” I can definitely see Presti working the back channels tonight like Underwood in trying to get those necessary 6 votes. And after he gets the votes, I can see Presti going to his hotel, opening up his balcony window, and cooly smoking one lonely cigarette while staring into the night.