Current Streaks: CHI: Winner of 1, loser of 11 straight prior to that / OKC: Winners of 2 straight, 5-1 since the All-Star break
The Tip-Off
Funny how you get an MVP back in the line-up and all the struggles from the previous 3 weeks are forgotten. When healthy, the Thunder are still the team to beat in the NBA. While this season has been mired by the “potholes in the road” by injuries, they are still arguably the best team in the NBA, by a significant margin. Friday night showed that. Denver gave it their best shot with Nikola Jokic having a monster triple-double and Jamal Murray pitching in 39 points. And yet, even with a chance to win it in overtime with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sitting, the Nuggets looked like they were the team that was suffering from the altitude in OKC. SGA’s time off the floor may have unlocked different aspects of the team that could yield positive returns come playoff time. Isaiah Joe, Jared McCain, and Cason Wallace each were significant contributors to the Thunder beating the Nuggets in OT.
This is the first of two meetings this season between the Thunder and Bulls. OKC has now won 6 straight games against Chicago, dating back to the 2022-23 season, with an average margin of victory of 16.5 points.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – OUT (abdominal strain / injury management)
Isaiah Hartenstein – OUT (calf strain / injury management)
Ajay Mitchell – OUT (abdominal strain / ankle)
Thomas Sorber – OFS (knee/ACL)
Jalen Williams – OUT (hamstring)
CHI
Zach Collins – OFS (toe)
Noa Essengue – OFS (shoulder)
Jaden Ivey – OUT (knee)
Anfernee Simons – OUT (wrist)
Jalen Smith – OUT (calf)
Patrick Williams – OUT (quad)
Three Big Things
Defending a Hodge-podge – The Bulls currently are just a cobbled up gaggle of undersized point guards, Josh Giddey, Matas Buzelis, and non-center centers. The unusualness of their current line-ups is where they can trip opponents up. The Thunder are made to defend the line-ups of today’s basketball. But if there is no Jokic, Doncic, or Ant Edwards to hyperfocus on, this team’s defense can sometimes be left scrambling, especially against guard heavy line-ups (see Charlotte and Utah).
Josh Giddey revenge game? – We just saw Ousmane Dieng have one of the best games of his career in his return to OKC right before the All-Star break. There were, of course, plenty of variables at play that could have contributed to such a performance, such as not having any play-makers available and the team having a “1-2-3 Cancun!” mentality after a roller-coaster first half of the season. But coming into tonight, there are similar variables at play: No play-makers available to them and the team possibly looking forward to the game on Wednesday in New York. There is trap game potential in this game and it could be spearheaded by Giddey.
Cason Wallace – With SGA, Mitchell, and Dub being out for tonight, the team will likely look to Cason to be their de-facto play-maker. And he’s been great since the All-Star break, averaging 6.5 assists per game, while boasting a 3:1 assist to turnover ratio. In that same span, he’s also averaging 15.3 points on 45/50/90 shooting splits.
Current Streaks: MIL: Winners of 4 of their last 5 / OKC: Winners of 4 of their last 6
The Tip-Off
Dang it! You write about the man in the last gameday preview. He puts together his best game of the season. And then the Injury Monster rears it’s ugly head again. This has been a miserable season, health-wise, for Jalen Williams. Against the Suns, Dub was out there looking like All-Star Dub for the entirety of the game, putting on a clinic in the 3rd quarter. But on his single miss of the game, a fast-break lay-up attempt where he had to reach for the ball in full stride, he jogged back to the other side of the court and pointed to the bench while grabbing his hamstring. Timeout, Thunder. Dub heads back to the locker room, never to be seen again. Here’s hoping the All-Star break can help heal some of the Thunder’s walking wounded.
This is the second and final meeting of the season between these two bitter rivals (that’s the joke – they were matched up on rivalry week…for why? I don’t know). The Thunder won the first meeting 122-102, in a game where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 40 points, while Ajay Mitchell and Kenrich Williams each contributed 18 points apiece.
Hot-shooting Team – Both teams come into this game on shooting hot streaks over the past 10 days. Since Feb. 2nd, Milwaukee is 4th in FG% and 1st in 3pt FG%. During that same timespan, OKC is 11th in FG% and 4th in 3pt FG%. Granted, three of the teams that Milwaukee played in that timeframe are in the bottom 10 of defensive rating, but sometimes the opponent doesn’t really matter if you are riding a hot wave.
1…2…3…Cancun! – The game before the All-Star break has the possibility of being a weird game. Milwaukee comes into the game on a hot streak, with young players that want to prove themselves not only to the Bucks, but also to Giannis Antetokounmpo. Guys like Cam Thomas and Thunder legend Ousmane Dieng are getting the green light to put all their skills on display and it’s resulted in some spirited wins here lately. Meanwhile, the Thunder likely just want to get through this game unscathed, so their guys can get a week’s worth of rest.
Nikola Topic – It’s been a long road, but Nikola Topic will make his professional debut tonight. After rehabbing an ACL injury the entirety of his rookie season to battling testicular cancer in the first half of this season, Topic has traveled a journey that would break many. He made his G-League debut earlier this week and immediately looked like he belonged. He scored 7 points and dished out 7 assists in his first game with the Blue. The next night, he scored 22 points and handed out 4 assists. In the absence of SGA, Mitchell, and now, Dub, having Topic out there to facilitate and play-make will be a gift.
Current Streaks: SAS: 3-3 in their last 6 games (alternating W’s and L’s) / OKC: 3-3 in their last 6 games, but have won 2 in a row
The Tip-Off
You know, I used to get pissed off when teams used to sit their stars (or even starters) for nationally televised games. Like, why the hell would I tune in to watch your 12th guy off the bench get starter minutes. But now, I kind of get it. Teams that have deep playoff runs don’t have the same restful offseason as those that don’t make the playoffs or exit early. The Thunder played two more months of basketball than most teams in the Association. And they came into this season with the idea that they would play their same brand of basketball. It worked for the first two months of the season. But their brand of basketball and their insistence to win began to take it’s toll on them. And so, the Thunder are now in a position to try and find respites of rest in the schedule whenever possible, while having it be as legit as possible. Those injuries start to pile on and the best recipe is to find rest. And so now, I get it.
This is the fifth and final meeting of the regular season between these two teams. San Antonio won the first three meetings of the season in December that sent Thunder fandom into a deep, dark depression. The Thunder returned the favor in January, winning 119-98.
Betting Info, presented by FanDuel
Line: OKC +8.5
O/U: 217.5
Injury Report
OKC
Alex Caruso – OUT (adductor)
Ousmane Dieng – OUT (Not With Team)
Lu Dort – OUT (knee)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – OUT (abdominal strain)
Isaiah Hartenstein – OUT (eye)
Chet Holmgren – OUT (back)
Ajay Mitchell – OUT (abdominal strain)
Thomas Sorber – OFS (knee/ACL)
Nikola Topic – OUT (cancer treatment)
Jalen Williams – OUT (hamstring)
SAS
Stephon Castle – Questionable (thigh)
Dylan Harper – Questionable (ankle)
Kelly Olynyk – Questionable (foot)
Jeremy Sochan – OUT (quad)
Lindy Waters III – OUT (knee)
Three Big Things
Injury Bug – While OKC has been dealing with injuries the entire season, the injury bug finally hit Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who will miss the next five games before the All-Star break and will also miss the All-Star game with an abdominal strain. The defending MVP has carried a heavy load this season, leading the Thunder to the best record in the league, while having to navigate consistent roster changes and injuries on a night to night basis. While it stinks to not have SGA out there, it is a good opportunity to get 2+ weeks of rest while only missing 5 games.
Good Opportunity – Here I thought the Orlando game was going to be the sacrificial game. Turns out, it’s the Spurs game. I get it. Guys need rest, SGA is injured, and you’ve already played the Spurs four times this season. There’s not much to glean from another battle against a potential 2nd or 3rd round playoff opponent. But it is a good opportunity for guys like Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins to expand their games and try new things. Remember when J-Will got all his triple-doubles last season late in the season when most of the starters were resting. Remember when it was almost guaranteed that Wiggins would get 25+ points when the starters sat late last season. Maybe this can be the Chris Youngblood “5 3-pointers made” game. Maybe Brooks Barnhizer will actually take an outside shot. Lots of opportunity for development.
Welcome, Jared McCain – The Thunder didn’t wait until Thursday to strike on a trade. They made a couple moves that netted them Jared McCain from the Philadelphia 76ers in exchange for a 2026 Houston first round pick and three future second round picks. In a lateral move, Ousmane Dieng and a 2029 2nd round pick were moved to Charlotte in exchange for Mason Plumlee, who was subsequently waived to create a roster spot for McCain. Dieng was then moved from Charlotte to Chicago in a separate trade. The idea of Dieng was always more hopeful than the actual production. Every time it seemed like Dieng was starting to carve out a role, an injury usually happened. By the time Dieng looked up, the team was on it’s way to contention and the developmental train had transformed into a hard-charging championship-contending train. But, hey, he got a championship ring out of it and was a Finals MVP for a G-League championship.
Current Streaks: ORL: 2-5 in their last 7 games / OKC: 2-3 in their last 5 games
The Set-Up
The days prior to the trade deadline are always filled with equal parts angst, curiosity, and hope. The Oklahoma City Thunder find themselves in a position where they have multiple options. Their most tradeable piece is Ousmane Dieng and his $6.7 million dollar expiring deal. While Lu Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Kenrich Williams also have possible expiring contracts, their importance to this team makes trading them in-season kind of difficult. But this could also be the Thunder’s last opportunity to acquire anything of value before any big deal would need to possibly involve one of the core three. Buckle up…we have two games and a trade deadline in the next three days. Could be fun…or nerve-wracking…or quizzical…or boring.
This is the first of two meetings this season between the Thunder and Magic. Oklahoma City has won that last 4 meetings against Orlando dating back to the 2023-24 season.
Orlando’s lack of shooting – While the Desmond Bane trade went a long way to provide Orlando with a reliable three-point threat, the Magic, as a collective, still lack consistent outside shooting. They rank 25th in 3-point attempts and 3-point makes and rank 27th in 3-point percentage at 34.3%. In addition, they are also bottom 10 in the same categories for total FG’s made, attempted, and percentage. This plays into the Thunder’s defensive ethos of protecting the paint and running out to shooters on the perimeter.
Sacrificial Game – This may be a sacrificial game for the Thunder. It’s the first night of a home/road back to back. The players who have played most of the season are likely tired and suffering from general soreness (shoutout Jimmy Butler). And the players who have come back from injury recently, such as Isaiah Hartenstein, likely can only play in one of the two back to back games. With that said, the Thunder are 2-0 in games in which Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sits out this season.
Win the turnover battle – Both OKC and Orlando do a good job of, not only protecting the ball (#2 and #7, respectively), but also, getting back on defense when they turn the ball over (OKC is 2nd and ORL is 4th in Opponent Points off Turnovers). Whoever wins the turnover battle, likely has an advantage in how this game goes.
Oklahoma City Thunder (0-0) @ Denver Nuggets (0-0)
When: Thursday, 24 October 2024 at 8:00pm CST
Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
TV: TNT
The Set-Up
There hasn’t been a more anticipated season for the Thunder than this upcoming season. You can maybe argue the 2012-13 season where the Thunder were coming off a Finals appearance. Or maybe the 2015-16 season where the team was stacked with talent, but also a ticking timebomb. But for some reason, this season feels different. Maybe it’s the wide-open nature of the league, where a new champ has been crowned the last 6 seasons. Maybe it’s the fact that this feels like the most cohesive and deepest team in Thunder history. Maybe it’s the fact that youth is still on our side and we still have one of the most, if not the most, coveted asset chest in the league. Whatever it is, the vibes are still immaculate, the calendar is starting on a new season, and hope is springing eternal. It’s the first step in the journey. Game 1. Thunder Up!
This is the first of 4 meetings this season between these two division, conference, and possibly, championship-contending rivals. The Thunder won the season series last year 3-1, winning the last three games of the series after getting trounced in their home-opener.
All-Star Weekend is in the rear view. And all in all, it was a fun weekend for Thunder fans.
Cason Wallace helped bring Team Pau back from its early deficit to Team Detlef, and was then scapegoated for not being able to carry a team of top 3 picks back from the early hole it dug itself.
Chet Holmgren contributed to Team Jalen’s ultimate victory in a variety of ways. Layups, blocks, windmills. Just not lobs. Maybe just catch those for now, Chettar Bob.
Jalen Williams showed he is a 2-way demon, knocking down middies, 3-balls, spreading the ball around, being an on-ball pest, and off-ball menace. All in route to knocking down the game winning 3-pointer, showing the world what “Dub Time” is. Dub, indeed.
Then of course, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put on a show in his first (hopefully of many) starts in the All-Star game. The antithesis of his game was on full display. Instead of acrobatic finishes through contact and an assault of mid-range jumpers, it was an uncharacteristically scorching hot 7/10 shooting from the 3 point line and an array of high flying dunks, including a self alley-oop off the glass… IN TRAFFIC!
Yes, All-Star Weekend couldn’t have gone better for Thunder fans, sans Isaiah Joe being in the 3-point contest. And the weekend’s series of events is enough to get the fans excited for the return from All-Star break on Thursday against our rivals, the Los Angeles Clippers. But through the excitement of the break, people have forgotten that the Thunder may or may not have added the piece that takes this team from young and fun overachievers, to bonafide contenders in the Western Conference.
Last week, the Thunder…
SIGNED BISMACK BIYOMBO!
That’s right! We are getting Bizzy with it! With our big Biyombro, we will be standing on Bizness for 48 minutes. *angry emoji with smoke coming out of nose*
As excited as I am for Biyombo, because of his ability to fill a role and his ability to raise the overall vibes for any locker room, it’s another move that this article is based around.
The trade that sent Tre Mann, Vasilije Micic, and Davis Bertans to Charlotte in exchange for none other than Gordon Hayward.
This trade is already a sore subject for Thunder fans. Tre had become a fan favorite, from his highlight reel dunks and stepback, to his fun and vibey personality on the bench and online. There were many (yours, truly included) that were sad to see him go. He has done well in his opportunities with the Hornets since then, making it hurt just a little more.
Micic, while he hasn’t been as consistent, has flashed many moments that have Thunder fans envying the former Euroleague MVP for the playoff run. And then you have Bertans, who has been fine, I guess.
On the Thunder side, we haven’t as much seen Hayward in a Thunder jersey. But I’ve been watching some film on him from this season. Not as a Celtic or during the Obama administration in Utah. No, from the 2023-24 NBA season, just to clear things up. While the name isn’t as big, flashy, or coveted as some of the other names around the league, his tape tells me Hayward is going to fit this team seamlessly.
Playmaker:
Not including his rookie year, Gordo (gotta find a nickname for this guy, let me live) hasn’t averaged less than 3 assists per game. This season, before he got hurt, he was averaging 4.6 assists per game. Which would be 2nd highest in his career (and .1 more than Josh Giddey has…).
There’s not much flashy about Gorgon’s passing. He doesn’t really bring the ball up the court and he doesn’t try to pretend to be Steve Nash. While he doesn’t always make jaw dropping, high level reads, he is constantly moving the ball and often times creating scoring opportunities for his teammates as the secondary, or even, tertiary creator.
While he isn’t necessarily a maestro with the basketball, Hayward can more than hold his own as a playmaker.
He gets it done in a variety of ways. Off the drive, off the catch, touch passes, in transition, dump offs, entry passes, the whole shebang.
Despite what the video above would lead you to believe, Hayward’s passes don’t lead to buckets 100% of the time, I’m sorry to deceive you.
But what’s important, and why he fits with the Thunder in this regard is, the ball doesn’t stick with him. There is no record scratch. He isn’t a ball stopper. He simply gets the ball, he drives it, he shoots it, or he quickly makes a pass.
Based on the tape above he’s going to create a lot of easy looks for Chet, Dub, Ous, Wiggs, and Boom (Jaylin Williams for those uninitiated). But he’s also going to be able to put Shai, Giddey, and Dub in scoring, and playmaking scenarios just with his willingness and participation of moving the ball around.
Shut up and drive:
When you watch a guy like Shai or Jalen Williams, you always hear the commentators talk about how relentless they are with their straight line drives to the basket. Shai has led the league in total drives going on 4 seasons, and even in his first season with the team, he still ranked 10th in the league. Dub, has a bit more variety to his game with the willingness to shoot a higher volume from deep, but particularly in late game situations, the gearshift is on D for him as well.
If you watch Gordon Bombay (yeah, that one felt wrong) you can tell he’s cut from that same cloth. While he can’t even smell the exhaust from Shai’s tailpipe at 23.9 drives per game, he is not far behind from Dub (12.6) with 10.8 drives per game.
While he adds some variety to his game in post work, catch and shoot, etc., a lot of his playmaking, as evidenced by the video in the playmaking section, is dependent of his drives.
Even at age 33, Hayward is a strong driver to the basket.
It’s no wonder he is constantly driving, as the Warden (I saw it on Twitter/X, I’m not married to it) is shooting an impressive 69.3% at the rim this year. To put that into perspective, Shai is shooting 66.5%. Dub is shooting 66.3%. Chet is shooting 71.7%. And the finishing god squad of Cason, Ous, and Joe are shooting 72.8, 73.9, 76.5 respectively. And since you keep bugging me, Giddey is shooting 55.2%.
Cut to the chase:
Wiggs made his early career off of knowing how to cut to the basket. OKC has plenty other really good cutters. Dub, Cason, Kenny, and even Giddey have shown some juice as cutters this year.
He’s no Edward Scissorshands, but my Hayward son (you see it) is a stealthy good cutter, and sneaky effective at it. Snake eyes (yeah this is bad, just having fun with the last sentence) averages 1.47 points per possession, while shooting 75%, on cuts but only at a frequency of 4.5%. For perspective, Shai is averaging 1.67 PPP on 80.8% shooting on 2% frequency. The aforementioned Aaron Wiggins is shockingly averaging only 1.3 PPP on 64.7% shooting, but on a team leading 15.6% frequency.
Hayward is literally playing Fruit Ninja with NBA defenses.
LaMelo Ball is a phenomenal playmaker. But he is one man. The Thunder’s entire roster has some playmaking juice. Pair that with his basketball IQ and understanding of space, and you have a smart and opportune cutter to add to the death by 1000 basket cuts.
There are a lot of things to like about Hayward. His shooting, while percentages are a tad down at 36.1%, he is shooting 40.8% on catch and shoot 3’s, 41.2% from the corners, and 42.4% on open 3-point jumpers.
He is averaging almost 5 rebounds per game, which will help a bit with that side of things. As well as averaging 1.1 steals per game. With guys like Dort and Dub at the point of attack and Chet as the back line, Hayward should be able to generate a number of steals for this already stingy defense.
Overall, the fit is very nice. And the price for the trade, with the flexibility to possibly re-sign him moving forward, makes the deal a no brainer.
Gordon Hayward is the type of player that can add one more punch to the Thunder’s push to the finals.
And if all I’ve said above comes to fruition, that punch may just end up being a Haymaker.
Hmmm, Haymaker.
I LIKE IT.
Special shoutout to @derthun_ and @homahoops for showing me the ways of the force and video editing. Be sure to follow them for great Thunder content. As well as me @ThunderChats, and my podcast @OKCTopicThunder. Thunder up.
Oklahoma City Thunder (0-0) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (0-0)
When: Wednesday, October 19th, 2022 at 7:00 PM CST
Where: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
And so it begins. Another season of Oklahoma City Thunder basketball. This is the time of year where hope springs eternal. Can the Thunder make it to the play-in tournament? Sure. Could Shai Gilgeous-Alexander be an All-Star this year? Sure. Will Jalen Williams make some noise in the rookie class? Hell yeah. And for you tank aficionados, can the Thunder lose enough games to get the highest odds for a certain generational Frenchman? In the words of former Thunder legend Russell Westbrook, why not?
To kick things off, the Thunder open up the season on the road against one of the off-season’s mystery teams: the Minnesota Timberwolves. The all-in trade for Rudy Gobert this offseason catapulted the Timberwolves into the “contender or pretender” narrative for this season. Will Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns be a harmonious twin tower combination or will one of them eventually get played off the floor in meaningful games?
Injury Report
OKC – Chet Holmgren – OUT (R foot – Lisfranc surgery recovery)
MIN – Eric Paschall – OUT (L ankle/Achilles tendinosis)
Three Big Things
Starting Line-ups – Thunder coach Mark Daigneault has made a point this season to be more secretive about his starting line-ups leading into games. Minnesota’s front court may force Daigneault to get a little creative with his starting line-up today. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is likely the starter from the center position. But the options for who starts at the PF position may be a mystery. Does Daigneault want Aleksej Pokusevski going up against Gobert or Towns on the defensive end? Or does Daigneault want to exploit Towns’ issues on the defensive end and go with a small-ball line-up with Jalen Williams starting at the 4? Or maybe we go completely bonkers and start Ousmane Dieng at the 4 to compete with Minnesota’s size up front. Many options and many questions.
SGA – The preseason was nullified for Gilgeous-Alexander due to an MCL sprain. Thankfully, the injury will not keep SGA out for any regular season time. Coach Daigneault at practice yesterday confirmed SGA is a full go and has no minutes restrictions heading into tonight’s game. The All-Star campaign for SGA starts tonight. It will be interesting to see how quickly SGA meshes with all the new parts on the team this season.
Surging Sophomores – The quartet of 2nd year players for the Thunder (Josh Giddey, Tre Mann, JRE, and Aaron Wiggins) have all come into this year with high expectations. Giddey appears to be straddling the line of superstardom with his ability to break defenses down and get into the paint at will. Mann seems well on his way to being one of the premier scoring guards off the bench this season. And JRE and Wiggins have glue guy/key role player written all over them.
Prediction: Minnesota wins a close one 111-104 as their size proves to be the deciding factor late in the game.
Oklahoma City General Manager Sam Presti (left) and Vice President of Basketball Operations Will Dawkins (right) meet with the media after the 2022 NBA Draft. (Credit: Alex Roig)
The Oklahoma City Thunder did something in this past draft that they haven’t done since they started this rebuild in 2019. Instead of acquiring more future first round picks, they consolidated a couple of picks from their asset chest in order to move up to take the prospect they wanted. In this case, the prospect was Ousmane Dieng. And the cost was three future first round picks. All three of the picks the Thunder gave up were heavily protected (lottery or more) for the 2023 NBA Draft, and those protections stretched out for the next 2-5 years. In essence, the Thunder traded the three worst first round assets they had for a player they really wanted.
In all, the Thunder have 13 possible first round picks over the next five drafts (2023-2027). Some of those picks will have value as draft picks and some of them will have value as trade bait. But every first round pick the Thunder have will have some sort of valuation, which is big to Thunder GM Sam Presti. When the Thunder traded the 16th pick in the 2021 NBA Draft to the Houston Rockets for two future firsts, many questioned if Presti was getting a little too asset-collection happy. After that draft, Presti was asked about trading what turned out to be Alperen Sengun for two future firsts. “It was just, it was a valuation of the asset and I think over time, we’ll be able to figure out different ways to utilize those. There’s really nothing more to it than that. It was just way above the line for the general value of that pick, and we’re going to probably make that decision most of the time.”
In this article, I wanted to look at the value of the 13 first round picks the Thunder have over the next five drafts. With that said, this is going to be perceived valuation based on the normal cycle teams go through in the NBA. I don’t have a crystal ball and can’t foresee things like injuries and future signings. These valuations are based on the current premise of the teams involved and the general evolution of what happens to teams in these positions. Without further ado, here are the values of the Thunder’s 13 future first round picks from least valuable to most valuable.
No. 13 – OKC’s 2027 first round pick
No. 12 – OKC’s 2026 first round pick
I put these two picks together because I think they hold the least amount of value to teams looking to deal with the Thunder. The Thunder will continue to add young talent to this team over the next few drafts. Also, as OKC gets better, they will likely add valuable veterans to the team via trade or (I can’t believe I’m saying this) free agency. As the collective talent on the team goes up, so will the wins. And as the wins increase, the draft position will also weaken. The Thunder will likely start to be good in 2024. But they will likely start to be great around 2026 or 2027. Hence, their draft picks will not be of much value to other teams.
No. 11 – Houston’s 2026 first round pick (Top-4 protected in ’26. Converts into a ’26 2nd rounder if it isn’t conveyed)
While Golden State, Boston, Milwaukee, and Los Angeles battle for league supremacy, OKC, Houston, Detroit, and Orlando are currently battling for draft position. Houston and OKC started their rebuilds around the same time. As Houston also continues to stack talent via the draft, their trajectory is likely to be very similar to OKC’s. For that reason, their 2026 pick is likely to be later in the first round than early in the first round.
No. 10 – Los Angeles Clippers’ 2024 first round pick (Unprotected)
If you think it’s crazy that an unprotected pick is only No. 10 on this list, I don’t blame you. Hell, I initially had this as the least valuable pick in the Thunder’s asset chest. But the pick being unprotected kind of forced me to move it down a couple spots. The reason I hesitate on giving this pick too much value is because the Clippers (sans injuries) are likely to be awesome over the next season or two. Like, “best record in the NBA” awesome. Like, “pick in the late 20’s or worse” awesome. Even with Kawhi Leonard out for the season and Paul George out for most of the season, the Clippers still found themselves in the midst of the play-in tournament. With those two back in tow and a point guard tandem of Reggie Jackson and Paul Wall, the Clippers could be real good when this pick is ready to convey.
No. 9 – Miami’s 2025 first round pick (Lottery protected for ’25. If not conveyed in ’25, it will be unprotected for ’26)
I really debated on where to put this pick due to the unprotected nature of it in it’s 2nd year. But Miami has three things going for it: two of their stars are young (Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro), they are a well run organization from top to bottom, and Miami is a prime free agent destination. Based on those three things, I don’t think the Heat will bottom out any time soon.
No. 8 – Philadelphia’s 2025 first round pick (Top-6 protected in ’25. Top-4 protected in ’26 & ’27. If not conveyed by ’27, it converts into a ’27 second rounder)
No. 7 – Utah’s 2024 first round pick (Top-10 protected in ’24 & ’25. Top-8 protected in ’26. If it doesn’t convey by ’26, OKC will receive $890K in cash)
I put these two picks together because these two teams a very close to being in turmoil over the next couple of seasons. For as great as Joel Embiid has been in his career, he’s never made it to a conference finals. Add to the mix, James Harden, who isn’t really known as a bastion of team chemistry, and the Sixers are a disappointing season or two away from being in complete flux. In addition, Embiid’s possible shelf life as a large human being who has had foot issues in the past could rear it’s ugly head in the near future.
The Utah Jazz seem to be the basketball version of the guy who peaked in high school. When the Jazz made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs in Donovan Mitchell’s rookie season, everyone thought that was just the beginning. Fast forward four seasons later and the Jazz still haven’t made it out of the 2nd round of the playoffs, their salary sheet is bloated, and their starting center shut down the world for two years (and now resides in Minnesota). Quin Snyder stepped down this offseason and Mitchell said aloud that he doesn’t know where he goes from here. The hope for Thunder fans is that the Jazz go the Portland route and try to use the picks they obtained in the Gobert deal to build around Mitchell for the next couple of seasons.
No. 6 – OKC’s 2025 first round pick
As mentioned in the explanation for OKC’s 2026 and 2027 picks, the Thunder could be well into their upward trajectory in 2025. They are likely to not be as good in 2025 as they are in ’26 and ’27, but they will likely be “playoff” good. This will be Josh Giddey and Tre Mann’s fourth season and Chet Holgrem, Jalen Williams, and Dieng’s third season. If the jump in their games were to happen, it would likely coincide with the 2024-25 season. But why would this pick be so valuable? The Thunder have the option to swap their pick with either the Clippers (unprotected) or the Rockets (Top-10 protected). If the Clippers hit an injury bug or if the Rockets aren’t progressing in their rebuild as quickly as the Thunder, the Thunder could end up with a better pick than their record suggests.
No. 5 – Denver’s 2027 first round pick (Top-5 protected for ’27 – ’29. Converts to a ’29 2nd rounder if it hasn’t conveyed by then)
Great teams usually have a shelf life of 3-5 years. Denver will be heading into Year 3 of their current situation. Injuries to Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. completely derailed last season, but Nikola Jokic still found ways to dominate on his way to his 2nd consecutive MVP award. But with their financial flexibility capped out and injury concerns for two of their three stars moving forward, this pick may be conveying around the time this team’s shelf life may be coming to end (if not already there by then).
No. 4 – OKC’s 2024 first round pick
No. 3 – Houston’s 2024 first round pick (Top-4 protected. If it isn’t conveyed, the Thunder would get Houston’s 2nd rounder in ’24 & ’25)
I lumped these two picks together because so much of their value is going to depend on what happens in the 2023 NBA Draft. If either of these teams lucks into Victor Wembanyama, their outlook changes immensely.
No. 2 – Los Angeles Clippers’ 2026 first round pick (Unprotected)
There’s a possibility the Clippers could still be good after the ’25-’26 season. But there’s also a high possibility that four more seasons of wear and tear will have had their effect on Leonard and George, along with the Clippers’ bloated cap sheet and lack of assets, to lead them into a slow decline that culminates in a great pick in this draft.
