Current Streaks: LAL: Losers of 2 straight, but had won 13 of their previous 14 games / OKC: Winners of 5 straight
Magic Number (to clinch the No. 1 seed throughout the playoffs): 2
The Tip-Off
In my honest opinion, this is the most dangerous time in the season for a contending team. The thin line between resting players and keeping them sharp by playing in sometimes meaningless games leads to the possibility of fatigue and, worst of all, injuries. The Lakers experienced that twice in one game, with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves being knocked of the Thunder game (and the rest of the regular season and likely part or all of the postseason) with soft-tissue injuries. San Antonio saw Victor Wembanyama go down in their last game with a rib injury. Regardless of the severity of the injury, rib injuries have a tendency to creep back up, especially with the increased physicality of playoff games. This is why wrapping up your playoff positioning as early as possible is so important.
This is the fourth and final meeting of the regular season between the Thunder and Lakers. The Thunder have won the first three meetings this season by an average of 27 points.
Jalen Williams – OUT (hamstring injury management)
LAL
Luka Doncic – OUT (hamstring)
LeBron James – OUT (foot)
Austin Reaves – OUT (oblique)
Marcus Smart – OUT (ankle)
Three Big Things
Take Care of Business – With a magic number of 2, the Thunder could go ahead and wrap up home-court advantage for the playoffs by the end of the day on Wednesday. But the games still need to be played and the Thunder face a Lakers team that is very depleted, but very desperate. The Lakers will likely come out like a wounded animal, looking to not only seek some revenge on the Thunder, but also regain their grip on the 3rd seed in the West. The Thunder will need to come out early, play their game, and not give LA any form of hope.
Depth – The Thunder have it. The Lakers currently do not. This is where the game can go from a deficit to a blow-out for the Lakers. Los Angeles will have to contend with one of the best starting line-ups in the league, and then will have to match that against one of the best/deepest benches in the league.
Attack the Paint – The key to the blowout victory on April 2nd wasn’t the three-pointers or the injuries to Reaves and Doncic. It was OKC’s ability to get into the paint and then cause havoc once there by either scoring or spraying the ball out to open shooters. The Thunder scored 64 points in the paint. Their season average for points in the paint is 49.5 (good for 17th in the league). With the lack of rim protection and with Marcus Smart still being out, this may be another paint-touch mastery class in the making.
Current Streaks: LAL: Winners of 4 in a row and 13 of their last 14 games / OKC: Winners of 3 in a row and 15 of their last 16
Magic Number (to clinch the No. 1 seed throughout the playoffs): 5
The Tip-Off
The cream is really rising to the top here in the Western Conference. The top four teams are all currently riding the following 10-game runs: OKC: 9-1, SA: 10-0, LAL: 9-1, and DEN: 8-2. In addition, OKC, LA, and DEN are all at the healthiest they’ve been all season. Hopefully this run of health continues, as the West playoffs are going to be historic if everyone plays at full strength.
This is the 3rd of 4 meetings this season between the Thunder and Lakers. OKC blew the Lakers out in their first meeting in Los Angeles, 121-92, in a game that saw Cason Wallace completely dominate defensively and saw Shai Gilgeous-Alexander go for 30 points and 9 assists. Their second meeting was a more tightly contested game that OKC won 119-110. OKC was without SGA in that game (and LA was without Luka Doncic) and seven players scored in double digits, led by Jalen Williams with 23 points.
Defend, While Not Fouling – Interesting find when looking at stats: Los Angeles DOESN’T lead the league in free throw attempts. That honor belongs to (wait for it…) the Orlando Magic (????). The Lakers are that team that features three offensive engines in Luka, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves that each kind of play the same way where if a play is breaking down, they can drive to the basket and create contact to initiate a foul call or two….or twenty. I don’t necessarily subscribe to the idea that this overtly benefits them because the Thunder have a player or two that play the same way. With that said, it’s my hope that the officials tonight call the game evenly and don’t subscribe to any “agenda-based” narratives.
Attack The Paint – The Lakers aren’t necessarily known for their stellar interior defense. They are 20th in the league in Opponent Points in the Paint, allowing 51.7 points per game and 22nd in blocks, at only 4.3 per game. SGA, Dub, and Ajay Mitchell should be hunting the favorable match-ups on the perimeter, especially with Marcus Smart being out, and getting automatic paint touches throughout the game. Isaiah Joe has had a big impact in the previous two Lakers games and that should be a recurring theme in this game, if those paint touches yield open threes.
MVP Matchup – While Doncic has seemingly fallen out of the race for the MVP, there is still going to be a very loud minority that yells for him to be MVP. And in most seasons, they would have a case. But this year, with SGA’s consistent excellence throughout the year and Victor Wembanyama’s emergence, Luka’s defensive struggles early in the season have pushed him behind the pace car. But that doesn’t mean that tonight’s game won’t be a fun matchup. Luka vs. the Thunder’s perimeter defender is always a chess match. And SGA looking to solidify his hold on the MVP after Wemby had another amazing night last night. In recent years, the schedule for April has rarely yielded any games of consequence. But this year, every game has been important, not just for seeding purposes, but also for MVP debate purposes.
Current Streaks: NYK: Lost their last game, winners of 7 straight before that / OKC: Won their last game, went 15-2 in their previous 17.
Magic Number (to clinch the No. 1 seed in the West): 7
The Tip-Off
OKC has the hardest remaining schedule in the league, per Tankathon.com. Seven of their last 8 games are against current post-season qualified teams, with five of those games coming against teams that in the top-4 of their conferences. Now, as this is the end of the season, the rosters may not always play out in full strength, but the possibility is still there. In addition, the Thunder are being chased by San Antonio, who has a much easier schedule to finish out the year. If you are a fan of games of consequence in April, this is the year for you. Enjoy the last 8 games of the season…not just in OKC, but throughout the NBA. There’s an air of vulnerability with the Thunder and teams are trying their hardest for positioning and opportunity.
This is the second and final meeting of the regular season between the Thunder and Knicks. The Thunder won the first meeting 103-100 in Madison Square Garden in a game that saw the Knicks get two opportunities to tie the game in the finals seconds only to miss the shots. In that game, Chet Holmgren led the Thunder with 28 points and 8 rebounds.
Betting Info, presented by FanDuel
Line: OKC -8.5
O/U: 223.5
Injury Report
OKC
Brooks Barnhizer – Day to Day
Thomas Sorber – OFS (knee/ACL)
NYK
Kevin McCullar Jr. – OUT (calf)
Deuce McBride – OUT (pelvis)
Landry Shamet – OUT (knee)
Three Big Things
Perimeter Defense – The Knicks are 7th in 3-pointers made, 11th in 3-pointers attempted, and 4th in 3-point percentage per game. The dribble and drive game of Jalen Brunson facilitates the open looks for Karl-Anthony Towns and New York’s plethora of 3-and-D wings. The point of attack defense on Brunson will be crucial to limiting this aspect of New York’s offense. Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, and Alex Caruso will need to be on their defensive game today.
Jalen Williams – New York struggles a little on offense against the Thunder because of Jalen Williams’ ability to guard KAT one on one. Dub wasn’t available for the last game between these two, but having a fully healthy Williams to matchup against KAT can open up rotational options for the Thunder.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – It’s been a while since SGA has had a defining game. I know, I know…how can you average 30+ points per game, lead the best team in the league, and be in the midst of a record (20 points scored per game) and still need defining games? But we were spoiled to a stretch there where OKC was winning games of consequence and SGA was hitting game-winner after game-winner that essentially shut-down the MVP at that time. But then NBA twitter and the talking heads got bored with that and in entered Victor Wembanyama into the MVP chat. So SGA has about 5 more games left this season (I doubt he plays the remaining games this year) to make a statement and let people who may have forgotten know “the MVP still resides in Oklahoma City”.
Current Streaks: SAS: 2-3 in their last 5 / OKC: Winners of 3 in a row and 7-2 in their last 9
The Set-Up
The next great rivalry. Two organizations that are foundationally very similar, appear to be on a path to establishing a rivalry that will likely lead us well into the 2030s. Two small market teams cut from the same cloth. One has already gotten the grand prize. The other appears to be a year behind, but on the same upward trajectory. Add to that, you have superstars, All-Stars, MVPs, All-NBA team members, All-Defense team members, DPOY candidates, 6MOY candidates on both rosters. It’s percolating and the NBA is hoping the eruption will occur later this season in the playoffs. The old guard may be starting to retire, but the NBA’s near future is in good hands
This is the fourth of five meetings this season between the Thunder and Spurs. The Spurs have won the first 3 meetings this season, with one of the those meetings being a 2-point difference (the Cup semifinal) and the other two being decided by an average of 17.5 points.
Dribble Penetration – One of the biggest failings in the first 3 games of the season against San Antonio has been our perimeter defense and the lack of penetration denial. De’Aaron Fox, Steph Castle, and Dylan Harper were able to get past the Thunder’s first line of defense pretty easily and get into the paint to cause havoc from there. Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, etc. were a step slow most times during those games and it put the onus squarely on Chet Holmgren’s shoulders to not only defend the dribble penetration but also keep an eye on the Spurs’ bigs.
Get your get back – Oklahoma City may present themselves as a “0-0 mentality, this is just 1 of 82, the next game is the most important game” type bunch. And for the most part, it’s true. But don’t believe for a second that they didn’t have this game circled on their calendars once they lost on Christmas day. They want this game and they want it in blowout fashion. They hear what the basketball zeitgeist is saying. They know that they shit the bed the last couple times they’ve played the Spurs. And they are here to right some wrongs.
Chet Holmgren – Speaking of getting your get back, Holmgren needs to step his game up and get over the mental block he has when facing off against Victor Wembanyama. The ironic thing is that for most of the time Holmgren has been on the floor, he’s been facing off against Luke Kornet, due to San Antonio starting Kornet in all three meetings and limiting Wembanyama to 23 minutes per game in the games against OKC. In the three games this season against San Antonio, Holmgren is averaging 11.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 1 block on 41/25/71 shooting splits. That’s a far cry from his season averages of 18 points, 8 rebounds, and nearly 2 blocks on 57/37/77 shooting splits. In the previous meetings, Holmgren may have been dealing with back issues and illness, but he should be his healthiest in this meeting. Will the real Chet Holmgren please stand up!
Normal Shooting – Can we please get a game where the shot making is normal? I mean, even for the Thunder. I’d like to see a game where shooting variance doesn’t rear it’s ugly head. Both teams shoot about 35% from deep. Let’s keep it there. No outliers, please (unless it’s OKC shooting the lights out ;-)
Ajay Mitchell – One of the biggest things missing from the two blowout losses the Thunder suffered against the Spurs was the absence of Ajay Mitchell. With Mitchell out, the Thunder had only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the lone ball-handler/shot-creator on the team. Jalen Williams would normally fill that role, but his continued recovery from wrist surgery has hampered that part of his game. Mitchell adds another wrinkle to the Thunder’s offense (and defense) that could unlock parts of the game that were missing in the last two meetings between these two teams.
Current Streaks: SAS: Winners of 9 of their last 12 / OKC: Winners of 16 in a row
The Set-Up
The one thing missing from the Thunder’s trophy case last season was an NBA Cup title. It was the first test for the team that eventually became the champs and they were thoroughly out-physical’ed and outplayed. And it was probably the best thing for this team moving forward. It gave them a blueprint for what to expect heading into that postseason and what to expect moving forward as a championship contender. But this year, they know what to expect. They are the more physical team, usually. They know how to win in my ways: ugly, muddy, free-throw contest, physical, track meet, etc. The Thunder know how to win in any manner and that’s likely due to losing in the NBA Cup Final last season.
This is the first of five meetings this season between what many see as future championship-contending rivals. The rebuild hibernation seems to be over for the Spurs and they are now letting their young players spread their wings and see how far they can go. The Thunder went 2-1 last season against the Spurs, with their only loss being, ironically, in group play for the NBA Cup. Of course, there were other factors in that one loss, namely being that OKC had no healthy big men in that game.
Different Looking Teams – Each team is coming into this game looking a bit different than what they’ve looked like lately. The Thunder are finally starting to get as healthy as they have been all season, with Isaiah Joe being the only rotational piece that will be out for this Cup semifinal. For the first time all season, the usual starting line-up of SGA, Dort, Dub, Chet, and Hartenstein has a chance to see the court together. On the other side, Victor Wembanyama is due to return from a calf strain that has kept him out since Nov. 14th. Despite all the injury setbacks, both teams have flexed their roster depth and find themselves as two of the top teams in the West, if not the NBA.
Chet vs. Wemby – God, I love a good head-to-head match-up. The NBA has been trying to build this rivalry up since Wembanyama first entered the league in 2023. Injuries and the two teams being on different timelines have kept the rivalry from flourishing. But now…now seems like the right time for this thing to bubble over. Chet and Wemby seem to have a mutual respect, but also, a mutual animosity for each other. It feels very much like a 90’s match-up where social media and cell phones didn’t really give players access to other players unless they crossed paths in the All-Star game, shared an agent, or shared a brand. And the great thing about today’s match-up is that there are stakes involved. Win or go home. And also, I’ll see you two more times in the next two weeks.
Rock Fight – While OKC may be a historic defense, the Spurs haven’t been too far behind in many statistical defensive categories. Spurs coach Mitch Johnson has done a great job of developing a culture similar to the Thunder’s, where the defense is their foundation and players like Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox, and Stephon Castle are the offensive engines that score the points. Even with Wemby out, the Spurs have maintained their defensive principles and been great on that side of the ball. This could end up being a low-scoring affair.
Creating Turnovers – The Spurs have three players that average over three turnovers per game. Stephon Castle (3.9), Wembanyama (3.6), and Fox (3.4) have the highest usage for the Spurs, but also the highest turnover rates. Dylan Harper averages 1.6 turnovers per game and will be facing probably the toughest he’s ever faced professionally. If the Thunder can generate their customary turnovers, it should fuel their transition offense and get them jump-started. In previous games against Wemby, the Thunder often swarm him and send doubles from different directions to keep him confused and create turnovers.
Looking in the Mirror – The Spurs are coming into this game ready to prove themselves. Ready to show that they belong in the conversation for playoff contenders/championship contenders. They are in a position very similar to where the Thunder were last season. The Spurs will be hungry. Will the Thunder be hungrier? It’s the hunter vs. hunted mentality. The Thunder have played this season like they still have something to prove.
The Emirates NBA Cup has been fun. I don’t know if I’d be saying the same thing if the Oklahoma City Thunder weren’t in the NBA Cup Finals. But still, it has worked. We monitored those group-play games pretty intensely, especially the last day of group play. And then watched with playoff fervor for the quarterfinal and semifinal games. It’s been competitive. It’s been TV-worthy, It’s been what the NBA envisioned a mid-season, single-elimination tournament would look like. Except it features two small-market teams. As an article on NBA.com pointed out in a preview of the Thunder/Rockets semifinal game, this “may not have been the marquee NBA Cup semifinal the league was hoping for…” The NBA has really done a shit job of featuring their young talent, outside of force feeding everyone Victor Wembanyama.
For the Thunder, the NBA Cup has done exactly what the NBA refused to do for them this season: it’s allowed the national audience to see this team in the brightest of lights. The Thunder forced their way in the national spotlight. The NBA knows they messed up by not putting this team in the Christmas line-up. As consolidation, the NBA flexed the two Thunder v. Cavs match-ups in January to national TV. All the Thunder can do from here on out is force you to watch them.
This is the first, of now, three meetings this season between these two teams. They split their season series last year. Before that, though, Milwaukee had won 5 in a row, dating back to Feb. 2022.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -4.5
O/U: 214.5
Injury Report
OKC
Ousmane Dieng – OUT (finger)
Alex Ducas – OUT (back)
Adam Flagler – OUT (finger)
Chet Holmgren – OUT (hip)
Nikola Topic – OUT (knee)
Jaylin Williams – OUT (hamstring)
MIL
Giannis Antetokounmpo – Probable (knee)
Damian Lillard – Probable (calf)
Khris Middleton – Probable (illness)
Liam Robbins – Questionable (ankle)
Three Big Things
Who guards SGA? – Defensively, the Milwaukee Bucks are not designed to cover someone like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They don’t have any serviceable big-wing defenders. Taurean Prince, Andre Jackson Jr, and Khris Middleton are either too slow, not big enough, or too injured to cover SGA. Damian Lillard, Gary Trent Jr., and AJ Green are barbecue chicken. Milwaukee is probably going to deploy an “everybody keep their eyes on Shai” defense and hope he passes it to someone else for a shot. Look for Jalen Williams to get loose a little in this game.
3-point defense – Weirdly, the 3-point shot has been one of the best offensive engines for the Bucks this season. They are third in the NBA in 3-point percentage at 38.9% and feature two of the top-6 players this season in 3-point percentage (Prince at 51.6% on 3.6 attempts and Green at 47.6% on 5.2 attempts). And there’s always Dame, who can catch fire at any moment. The difficulty in guarding the Bucks is having to choose between team-guarding Giannis or hoping their 3-point shooters have an off-night. Knowing the Thunder, they will roll the dice (VEGAS PUN!) on hoping the Bucks have an off-night from the perimeter.
High-pressure test – This is essentially a neutral site Game 7. Giannis and the Bucks have won a Game 7 in the Finals before. The Thunder are at the beginning of their pressure-filled journey .This will be a good test for them and will give Mark some data-points for future high pressure situations.
I don’t want to over-react, but what the Thunder is doing so far this season is historic. Their defense has been exceptionally great. The fact that it hasn’t really mattered that the offense has been average, at best, and they are still beating teams by an average of 19.3 points is amazing to me. The Thunder’s Guard Dawgs (Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace) have caused fits for perimeter players, while Chet Holmgren patrols the paint to the tune of 4 blocks per game (1st in the league) and 13 rebounds per game (3rd in the league). In addition, you have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams ball-hawking the passing lanes. If the Thunder’s offense ever jumps into the Top-10, this team could be looking at being historic for margin of victory also.
This is the first of three meetings this season between these two teams. The Thunder won the season series last year 3-1, with an average margin of victory of 33.3 points.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -12.5
O/U: 221.5
Injury Report
OKC
Isaiah Hartenstein – OUT (hand)
Nikola Topic – OUT (knee)
Jaylin Williams – OUT (hamstring)
Kenrich Williams – OUT (knee)
SAS
Tre Jones – OUT (ankle)
Devin Vassell – OUT (foot)
Three Big Things
Chet vs. Wemby – One of the budding rivalries in the league. This had Christmas Day game written all over it. You dropped the ball on that one, Silver. Luckily, all three of the meetings this year are nationally televised games. These two players always get up for this match-up. And rightfully so. This rivalry has the possibility of being an all-timer when it is all said and done between these two. Many of their match-ups last season were cut short by the score of the game, but the one game where the Spurs won, it showed how intense this rivalry could get.
Pace – The Thunder and Spurs find themselves on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to pace. Oklahoma City is 3rd in the league, while San Antonio is currently 28th. It’s no surprise when you look at the point guards for each team. That said, Chris Paul is still savvy enough to know how to control the pace and be efficient while doing it. But as long as the Thunder use their defense to jump-start their offense, there should be no reason why this game isn’t in the Thunder’s favor pace-wise.
Jalen Williams – There’s a lot of buzz around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Holmgren…and deservedly so. J-Dub, the third part of that triumvirate, has yet to really catch his rhythm this season. As good as he is though, it’s only a matter of time. He showed signs of shaking off his preseason ankle injury in the last game and here’s hoping that continues moving forward.
It’s scary how quickly this team has gotten good. The previous iteration of the Thunder with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were great because those two players were top-5 players in the league and their combined talent overwhelmed most teams. Their major flaw was the scheme, both offensively and defensively, around them. As they got into the playoffs, elite coaches could scheme against the lack of options on the team once you got past those first two players.
What we are seeing with this new version of the good Thunder is that while the top 2-3 players on the team aren’t yet on par with prime level KD and Russ, the scheme around them allows more leeway, not only for the big 3, but also the supporting cast. While both teams fielded talented players, this team has great coaching on its side. And the scary part is Coach Daigneault is still learning.
This is the 3rd of four meetings this season between the Spurs and Thunder. Oklahoma City has won the previous two by 36 and 26 points, respectively. They meet for the final time in April.
Magic Numbers
To lock up the 10th seed (play-in guaranteed) – 15
To lock up the 6th seed (playoffs guaranteed) – 17
Betting Info
Line: OKC -11.5
O/U: 236.5
Injury Report
OKC
None
SAS
Marcus Morris Sr. (Not With Team) – OUT
Charles Bassey (knee) – OUT
Three Big Things
Track Meet potential – Both of these teams are top-10 in Pace and in Fastbreak Points, which makes sense with both being two of the youngest teams in the league. The difference is on the defensive end where Oklahoma City is the 3rd best team at defending in transition, whereas San Antonio, is the 11th worst.
The Chet vs. Wemby match-up – The first four minutes of the fourth quarter in their last game was a glimpse into what most fans want to see from these two. The battling, the shit-talking, the snarls, the passive-aggressiveness, the “calling for the ball”. But here’s the reality: that doesn’t happen if OKC isn’t up by 24 heading into the final quarter. The Thunder coaching staff wouldn’t have allowed it and Chet wouldn’t have allowed himself to get lured into a detrimental one on one match-up in the middle of a tight game. While both players are highly competitiveness, I think Chet has a slight leg up in the maturity department. With all that said, though, Chet has been on a tear since the All-Star break and it would be awesome to see him have a great statistical game against Wembanyama.
Turn them over – The Spurs turn the ball over a ton and the Thunder create a ton of turnovers. Sounds like a match-up that will favor the Thunder.
It was 2020, and the Oklahoma City Thunder were playing the Houston Rockets in the bubble. The happiest place on Earth was suddenly a lot happier in a very sad time, because it meant the return of NBA basketball back into our lives.
It was a bittersweet series for Thunder fans going into it. We were facing our beloved “king of the prairie”, the Brodie, Russell Westbrook in the playoffs for the first time since he was traded. The Thunder were run off the floor in the first two games of the series. But, in spite of the rough start they had, they were able to fight back and make the series 3-3 to force a game 7.
The Thunder, unfortunately, fell short in a WILD game 7. Crazy things happened throughout the game. Lu Dort, a then 29% 3 pointer shooter, knocked down 6/12 3’s. James Harden, former Thunder legend and known lazy defender, decided to play defense very late in the game to block the aforementioned Dort’s go ahead 3 point attempt. And Chris Paul, the player acquired in the Russ trade, missed a crucial and absolute bunny of a shot to put the Thunder up 1 with under 45 seconds remaining.
As he missed the shot; we knew, and he knew, that was likely the game.
“I had a floater right there in the middle of the lane that would have put us up 1.” Chris Paul lamented postgame. “I said (to the team) ‘Just keep it close, and we’ll finish it.‘ That’s on me.”
Chris Paul was something else that season, man. Went from a guy that many thought was washed and silenced every doubter. Took a team with a .2% (still insane) chance at the postseason and carried them to a 5 seed. Was 5th in MVP voting and led the NBA in points in the clutch.
Just the game prior, he hit two huge 3’s late to put the Thunder in position to win game 6.
The issue was, as he alluded to after Game 7, that it was “on me.” And it was. It was ALL on him. Whether it was scoring, creating, or distributing in the clutch, the Thunder relied solely on the play of Chris Paul.
And when it mattered most, he couldn’t deliver.
This isn’t an indictment on CP3. As I mentioned, he was AWESOME on and off the court in 2020. But it makes you think, what it would have looked like if he had someone he could also rely on in those moments. Someone, possibly, on both sides of the court. What might that have looked like?
Well, it might just look like the #1 team in the Western Conference, currently.
Today, we see a Thunder team with a similar dominance late in the game. In the clutch this season, this team boasts the highest field goal percentage (53.7%), the highest offensive rating (129.6), and the 2nd highest net rating (23.4).
And unlike that team in 2020 that lived and died off the performance of Chris Paul, it’s 3 different guys, affecting the game in a variety of ways.
(All the upcoming stats are for players who have taken at least 10 shots in the clutch)
((Shoutout Aaron Wiggins though, who is the first name that comes up if you search FG% with no filter))
First, you have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The head of the snake on offense, a perennial MVP candidate, one of the most unguardable players in the entire league, widely regarded as one of the clutchest shot makers in the world. He is currently 10th in clutch points (70), and field goal percentage (61%), which is phenomenal in and of itself.
However, much like most of the discourse around Shai this year, the offense doesn’t tell you the whole story. Shai is also tied for 2nd in the league in steals made in the clutch (5). He clearly made his defense a point of emphasis over the offseason, currently leading the league in steals by a wide margin. And that clearly reflects in late game situations as well!
Then you have Chet Holmgren. A rookie who has defied every expectation, has provided an unprecedented impact to a team that was in the play-in game just last year, is the lead for Rookie of the year, a borderline All-Star, and is already one of the best rim protectors in the game. He, to a lesser but still impressive degree, is 29th in clutch FG% (53.6%) which is still great for a 3rd option on offense, and he’s already had a couple clutch moments on offense this year.
But much like Shai, it’s the defense where his impact is mostly felt. Chet is currently 4th in blocks per game (2.6) and 3rd in total blocks (111), and that has trickled into the clutch as well. Chet currently leads the league in clutch time blocks with 9 (!!) , that’s a full 2 blocks more than the 2nd highest, which, interestingly enough, is his rookie nemesis Victor Wembanyama who has 7. Late in the game, teams look for the best shots they can get, and there is no better look than at the rim… unless Chet is there and then you should probably look elsewhere.
Finally, you have arguably the most impressive stat in this article. Jalen Williams, known as JDub, Dub, or around the holidays he is affectionately referred to as Santa (real ones know what’s up). Dub is in his sophomore season, but he has been playing like a seasoned vet as of late.
In the game against the Magic on January 13th, he scored a quick flurry of points at the beginning of the 4th quarter and started tapping his wrist declaring that it’s “Dub time”! That’s the time when Shai is off the court to start the 4th quarter (and to a lesser extent the 2nd quarter). For about 6 to 7 minutes, it’s alllllllll Jalen Williams. Buckets, creation, defense, what have you; this is his time to cook, this is truly Dub time. It’s helped us cut into leads, hold leads, and extend leads. Dub time.
But what he does at the end of the 4th, is even more eye popping.
As of this writing, Jalen Williams leads the league in clutch FG% with 72.7% on 22 shots. Just last night against the Blazers, he had 3/4 shots go down (all in about the exact same spot), including what ended up being the game winner, in almost the exact same spot Shai called game against the Blazers the year prior.
What’s important about these shots? The Thunder used Shai as a screener for Dub, and then had him flare to the top of the three point line as a decoy, leaving Dub 1 on 1 against the diminutive Anfernee Simons.
Chet also had 3 of his 6 blocks in the 4th quarter. And despite Dub hitting the shot, it was Shai who stole the inbound alley-oop attempt as the clock expired to finally ice the game.
In its early conception, the Thunder relied on Kevin Durant. In 2016-17, the Thunder relied on Russell Westbrook. In 2020, the Thunder relied on Chris Paul. And in the years prior to this one, the Thunder relied solely on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
For the first time in forever, it’s not a one man band in OKC. It’s not Shai against the world. The Thunder have carefully hand picked, home grown, and developed three players at different positions, who have a killer mentality, buy in on both sides of the ball, are unselfish, and aren’t afraid of the moment.
The Thunder are no longer a one man show in the clutch. They are a tag team.
And no matter what area of the game they are effecting, no matter which one of them are tagged in, they’re coming for the belt.
Now comes the hard part. It’s easy to be the hunter. It’s the position most teams in the league are. But when you are at the top, you become the hunted. And that’s an entirely different set of circumstances. In a perfect world, every team would be receiving another team’s best shot in every game. But we know motivation can be a hell of a weapon. Just look at last night’s game. The Thunder needed a last second game winner (and some controversy) to come away with a 2-point victory against a team OKC had beat the previous two times they’ve played by a combined 105 points. Now when teams look at OKC, they’ll see a metaphorical crown to snatch.
This is the second of four meetings this season between these two teams. The Thunder won the first game convincingly, 123-87, in Oklahoma City, in mid-November.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -7.5
O/U: 242.5
Injury Report
OKC
Olivier Sarr (hip) – Day to Day
SAS
Charles Bassey (knee) – OUT
Sidy Cissoko (ankle) – OUT
Tre Jones (ankle) – Questionable
Three Big Things
Mental focus – There were times in the game against the Trailblazers where the Thunder weren’t necessarily playing like themselves. Going for steals which then set the back line defenders up for failure. Taking inefficient shots. Turning the ball over. It was classic “we’re better than this team and we know we can coast and still win”. And they did. It felt very 2015-2019’ish, when the Thunder would consistently play down to their opponents and need a monster comeback to win the game.
The Chet vs. Wemby match-up we’ve been waiting for – The previous match-up between these two was a bit disappointing. Not necessarily disappointing because of the individual players. But disappointing because they hardly ever matched up against each other throughout the evening. San Antonio usually deploys Zach Collins to tackle the opposing center, while the Thunder look for match ups that keep Chet closest to the rim. Luckily for us, the Spurs have recently been using starting line-ups that feature only Wembanyama as the center.
Pace Race – These two teams love to push the ball up the floor. They are top-7 in the league in both pace and fast-break points. Should make for a fun game for the national TV audience.
