Tag Archives: Victor Wembanyama

San Antonio Spurs vs. Thunder preview (Game 26 of 82, NBA Cup Semifinals)

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  • San Antonio Spurs (17-7, 5th in the West) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (24-1, 1st in the West)
  • When: Saturday, 13 December 2025 at 8:00pm CST
  • Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
  • TV: Prime Video
  • Offensive Rating: SAS: 118.6 (6th) / OKC: 120.5 (5th)
  • Defensive Rating: SAS: 114.4 (16th) / OKC: 103.3 (1st)
  • Net Rating: SAS: 4.2 (8th) / OKC: 17.2 (1st)
  • Current Streaks: SAS: Winners of 9 of their last 12 / OKC: Winners of 16 in a row

The Set-Up

The one thing missing from the Thunder’s trophy case last season was an NBA Cup title. It was the first test for the team that eventually became the champs and they were thoroughly out-physical’ed and outplayed. And it was probably the best thing for this team moving forward. It gave them a blueprint for what to expect heading into that postseason and what to expect moving forward as a championship contender. But this year, they know what to expect. They are the more physical team, usually. They know how to win in my ways: ugly, muddy, free-throw contest, physical, track meet, etc. The Thunder know how to win in any manner and that’s likely due to losing in the NBA Cup Final last season.

This is the first of five meetings this season between what many see as future championship-contending rivals. The rebuild hibernation seems to be over for the Spurs and they are now letting their young players spread their wings and see how far they can go. The Thunder went 2-1 last season against the Spurs, with their only loss being, ironically, in group play for  the NBA Cup. Of course, there were other factors in that one loss, namely being that OKC had no healthy big men in that game.

Betting Info, presented by FanDuel

  • Line: OKC -11
  • O/U: 231.5

Injury Report

OKC

  • Isaiah Joe – OUT (knee)
  • Thomas Sorber – OFS (knee/ACL)
  • Nikola Topic – OUT (cancer treatment)

SAS

  • Victor Wembanyama – Probable (calf)

Five Big Things

  1. Different Looking Teams – Each team is coming into this game looking a bit different than what they’ve looked like lately. The Thunder are finally starting to get as healthy as they have been all season, with Isaiah Joe being the only rotational piece that will be out for this Cup semifinal. For the first time all season, the usual starting line-up of SGA, Dort, Dub, Chet, and Hartenstein has a chance to see the court together. On the other side, Victor Wembanyama is due to return from a calf strain that has kept him out since Nov. 14th. Despite all the injury setbacks, both teams have flexed their roster depth and find themselves as two of the top teams in the West, if not the NBA.
  2. Chet vs. Wemby – God, I love a good head-to-head match-up. The NBA has been trying to build this rivalry up since Wembanyama first entered the league in 2023. Injuries and the two teams being on different timelines have kept the rivalry from flourishing. But now…now seems like the right time for this thing to bubble over. Chet and Wemby seem to have a mutual respect, but also, a mutual animosity for each other. It feels very much like a 90’s match-up where social media and cell phones didn’t really give players access to other players unless they crossed paths in the All-Star game, shared an agent, or shared a brand. And the great thing about today’s match-up is that there are stakes involved. Win or go home. And also, I’ll see you two more times in the next two weeks.
  3. Rock Fight – While OKC may be a historic defense, the Spurs haven’t been too far behind in many statistical defensive categories. Spurs coach Mitch Johnson has done a great job of developing a culture similar to the Thunder’s, where the defense is their foundation and players like Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox, and Stephon Castle are the offensive engines that score the points. Even with Wemby out, the Spurs have maintained their defensive principles and been great on that side of the ball. This could end up being a low-scoring affair.
  4. Creating Turnovers – The Spurs have three players that average over three turnovers per game. Stephon Castle (3.9), Wembanyama (3.6), and Fox (3.4) have the highest usage for the Spurs, but also the highest turnover rates. Dylan Harper averages 1.6 turnovers per game and will be facing probably the toughest he’s ever faced professionally. If the Thunder can generate their customary turnovers, it should fuel their transition offense and get them jump-started. In previous games against Wemby, the Thunder often swarm him and send doubles from different directions to keep him confused and create turnovers.
  5. Looking in the Mirror – The Spurs are coming into this game ready to prove themselves. Ready to show that they belong in the conversation for playoff contenders/championship contenders. They are in a position very similar to where the Thunder were last season. The Spurs will be hungry. Will the Thunder be hungrier? It’s the hunter vs. hunted mentality. The Thunder have played this season like they still have something to prove.

Thunder vs. Milwaukee Bucks preview (NBA Cup Final)

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  • Oklahoma City Thunder (20-5, 1st in the West) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (14-11, 5th in the East)
  • When: Tuesday, 17 December 2024 at 7:30pm CST
  • Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
  • Offensive Rating – MIL: 113.6 (11th) / OKC: 115.2 (8th)
  • Defensive Rating – MIL: 112.3 (13th) / OKC: 103.1 (1st)
  • Net Rating – MIL: 1.4 (15th) / OKC: 12.1 (1st)

The Set-Up

The Emirates NBA Cup has been fun. I don’t know if I’d be saying the same thing if the Oklahoma City Thunder weren’t in the NBA Cup Finals. But still, it has worked. We monitored those group-play games pretty intensely, especially the last day of group play. And then watched with playoff fervor for the quarterfinal and semifinal games. It’s been competitive. It’s been TV-worthy, It’s been what the NBA envisioned a mid-season, single-elimination tournament would look like. Except it features two small-market teams. As an article on NBA.com pointed out in a preview of the Thunder/Rockets semifinal game, this “may not have been the marquee NBA Cup semifinal the league was hoping for…” The NBA has really done a shit job of featuring their young talent, outside of force feeding everyone Victor Wembanyama.

For the Thunder, the NBA Cup has done exactly what the NBA refused to do for them this season: it’s allowed the national audience to see this team in the brightest of lights. The Thunder forced their way in the national spotlight. The NBA knows they messed up by not putting this team in the Christmas line-up. As consolidation, the NBA flexed the two Thunder v. Cavs match-ups in January to national TV. All the Thunder can do from here on out is force you to watch them.

This is the first, of now, three meetings this season between these two teams. They split their season series last year. Before that, though, Milwaukee had won 5 in a row, dating back to Feb. 2022.

Betting Info

  • Line: OKC -4.5
  • O/U: 214.5

Injury Report

OKC

  • Ousmane Dieng – OUT (finger)
  • Alex Ducas – OUT (back)
  • Adam Flagler – OUT (finger)
  • Chet Holmgren – OUT (hip)
  • Nikola Topic – OUT (knee)
  • Jaylin Williams – OUT (hamstring)

MIL

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo – Probable (knee)
  • Damian Lillard – Probable (calf)
  • Khris Middleton – Probable (illness)
  • Liam Robbins – Questionable (ankle)

Three Big Things

  1. Who guards SGA? – Defensively, the Milwaukee Bucks are not designed to cover someone like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They don’t have any serviceable big-wing defenders. Taurean Prince, Andre Jackson Jr, and Khris Middleton are either too slow, not big enough, or too injured to cover SGA. Damian Lillard, Gary Trent Jr., and AJ Green are barbecue chicken. Milwaukee is probably going to deploy an “everybody keep their eyes on Shai” defense and hope he passes it to someone else for a shot. Look for Jalen Williams to get loose a little in this game. 
  2. 3-point defense – Weirdly, the 3-point shot has been one of the best offensive engines for the Bucks this season. They are third in the NBA in 3-point percentage at 38.9% and feature two of the top-6 players this season in 3-point percentage (Prince at 51.6% on 3.6 attempts and Green at 47.6% on 5.2 attempts). And there’s always Dame, who can catch fire at any moment. The difficulty in guarding the Bucks is having to choose between team-guarding Giannis or hoping their 3-point shooters have an off-night. Knowing the Thunder, they will roll the dice (VEGAS PUN!) on hoping the Bucks have an off-night from the perimeter.
  3. High-pressure test – This is essentially a neutral site Game 7. Giannis and the Bucks have won a Game 7 in the Finals before. The Thunder are at the beginning of their pressure-filled journey .This will be a good test for them and will give Mark some data-points for future high pressure situations.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Thunder Preview (Game 4 of 82)

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San Antonio Spurs' Losing Streak Continues in Oklahoma City Thunder Blowout - Sports Illustrated Inside The Spurs, Analysis and More

  • San Antonio Spurs (1-2) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (3-0)
  • When: Wednesday, 30 October 2024 at 8:30pm CST
  • Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
  • Offensive Rating – SAS: 108.1 (24th) / OKC: 109.2 (18th)
  • Defensive Rating – SAS: 114.1 (16th) / OKC: 90.8 (1st)
  • Net Rating – SAS: -6.0 (22nd) / OKC: 18.4 (2nd)
  • TV: ESPN

The Set-Up

I don’t want to over-react, but what the Thunder is doing so far this season is historic. Their defense has been exceptionally great. The fact that it hasn’t really mattered that the offense has been average, at best, and they are still beating teams by an average of 19.3 points is amazing to me. The Thunder’s Guard Dawgs (Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace) have caused fits for perimeter players, while Chet Holmgren patrols the paint to the tune of 4 blocks per game (1st in the league) and 13 rebounds per game (3rd in the league). In addition, you have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams ball-hawking the passing lanes. If the Thunder’s offense ever jumps into the Top-10, this team could be looking at being historic for margin of victory also.

This is the first of three meetings this season between these two teams. The Thunder won the season series last year 3-1, with an average margin of victory of 33.3 points.

Betting Info

  • Line: OKC -12.5
  • O/U: 221.5

Injury Report

OKC

  • Isaiah Hartenstein – OUT (hand)
  • Nikola Topic – OUT (knee)
  • Jaylin Williams – OUT (hamstring)
  • Kenrich Williams – OUT (knee)

SAS

  • Tre Jones – OUT (ankle)
  • Devin Vassell – OUT (foot)

Three Big Things

  1. Chet vs. Wemby – One of the budding rivalries in the league. This had Christmas Day game written all over it. You dropped the ball on that one, Silver. Luckily, all three of the meetings this year are nationally televised games. These two players always get up for this match-up. And rightfully so. This rivalry has the possibility of being an all-timer when it is all said and done between these two. Many of their match-ups last season were cut short by the score of the game, but the one game where the Spurs won, it showed how intense this rivalry could get.
  2. Pace – The Thunder and Spurs find themselves on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to pace. Oklahoma City is 3rd in the league, while San Antonio is currently 28th. It’s no surprise when you look at the point guards for each team. That said, Chris Paul is still savvy enough to know how to control the pace and be efficient while doing it. But as long as the Thunder use their defense to jump-start their offense, there should be no reason why this game isn’t in the Thunder’s favor pace-wise.
  3. Jalen Williams – There’s a lot of buzz around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Holmgren…and deservedly so. J-Dub, the third part of that triumvirate, has yet to really catch his rhythm this season. As good as he is though, it’s only a matter of time. He showed signs of shaking off his preseason ankle injury in the last game and here’s hoping that continues moving forward.

Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs preview (Game 59 of 82)

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  • Oklahoma City Thunder (41-17, 2nd in the West) @ San Antonio Spurs (11-48, 15th in the West)
  • When: Thursday, 29 February 2024 at 7:30pm CST
  • Where: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
  • Offensive Rating – SAS: 109.0 (27th) / OKC: 119.4 (3rd)
  • Defensive Rating – SAS: 117.5 (24th) / OKC: 111.1 (4th)
  • Net Rating – SAS: -8.5 (27th) / OKC: 8.4 (2nd)

The Set-Up

It’s scary how quickly this team has gotten good. The previous iteration of the Thunder with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were great because those two players were top-5 players in the league and their combined talent overwhelmed most teams. Their major flaw was the scheme, both offensively and defensively, around them. As they got into the playoffs, elite coaches could scheme against the lack of options on the team once you got past those first two players.

What we are seeing with this new version of the good Thunder is that while the top 2-3 players on the team aren’t yet on par with prime level KD and Russ, the scheme around them allows more leeway, not only for the big 3, but also the supporting cast. While both teams fielded talented players, this team has great coaching on its side. And the scary part is Coach Daigneault is still learning.

This is the 3rd of four meetings this season between the Spurs and Thunder. Oklahoma City has won the previous two by 36 and 26 points, respectively. They meet for the final time in April.

Magic Numbers

  • To lock up the 10th seed (play-in guaranteed) – 15
  • To lock up the 6th seed (playoffs guaranteed) – 17

Betting Info

  • Line: OKC -11.5
  • O/U: 236.5

Injury Report

OKC

  • None

SAS

  • Marcus Morris Sr. (Not With Team) – OUT
  • Charles Bassey (knee) – OUT

Three Big Things

  1. Track Meet potential – Both of these teams are top-10 in Pace and in Fastbreak Points, which makes sense with both being two of the youngest teams in the league. The difference is on the defensive end where Oklahoma City is the 3rd best team at defending in transition, whereas San Antonio, is the 11th worst.
  2. The Chet vs. Wemby match-up – The first four minutes of the fourth quarter in their last game was a glimpse into what most fans want to see from these two. The battling, the shit-talking, the snarls, the passive-aggressiveness, the “calling for the ball”. But here’s the reality: that doesn’t happen if OKC isn’t up by 24 heading into the final quarter. The Thunder coaching staff wouldn’t have allowed it and Chet wouldn’t have allowed himself to get lured into a detrimental one on one match-up in the middle of a tight game. While both players are highly competitiveness, I think Chet has a slight leg up in the maturity department. With all that said, though, Chet has been on a tear since the All-Star break and it would be awesome to see him have a great statistical game against Wembanyama.
  3. Turn them over – The Spurs turn the ball over a ton and the Thunder create a ton of turnovers. Sounds like a match-up that will favor the Thunder.

Tag Team: How the Thunder get it done in the clutch

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It was 2020, and the Oklahoma City Thunder were playing the Houston Rockets in the bubble. The happiest place on Earth was suddenly a lot happier in a very sad time, because it meant the return of NBA basketball back into our lives.

It was a bittersweet series for Thunder fans going into it. We were facing our beloved “king of the prairie”, the Brodie, Russell Westbrook in the playoffs for the first time since he was traded. The Thunder were run off the floor in the first two games of the series. But, in spite of the rough start they had, they were able to fight back and make the series 3-3 to force a game 7.

The Thunder, unfortunately, fell short in a WILD game 7. Crazy things happened throughout the game. Lu Dort, a then 29% 3 pointer shooter, knocked down 6/12 3’s. James Harden, former Thunder legend and known lazy defender, decided to play defense very late in the game to block the aforementioned Dort’s go ahead 3 point attempt. And Chris Paul, the player acquired in the Russ trade, missed a crucial and absolute bunny of a shot to put the Thunder up 1 with under 45 seconds remaining.

As he missed the shot; we knew, and he knew, that was likely the game.

“I had a floater right there in the middle of the lane that would have put us up 1.” Chris Paul lamented postgame. “I said (to the team) ‘Just keep it close, and we’ll finish it.‘ That’s on me.”

Chris Paul was something else that season, man. Went from a guy that many thought was washed and silenced every doubter. Took a team with a .2% (still insane) chance at the postseason and carried them to a 5 seed. Was 5th in MVP voting and led the NBA in points in the clutch.

Just the game prior, he hit two huge 3’s late to put the Thunder in position to win game 6.

The issue was, as he alluded to after Game 7, that it was “on me.” And it was. It was ALL on him. Whether it was scoring, creating, or distributing in the clutch, the Thunder relied solely on the play of Chris Paul.

And when it mattered most, he couldn’t deliver.

This isn’t an indictment on CP3. As I mentioned, he was AWESOME on and off the court in 2020. But it makes you think, what it would have looked like if he had someone he could also rely on in those moments. Someone, possibly, on both sides of the court. What might that have looked like?

Well, it might just look like the #1 team in the Western Conference, currently.

Today, we see a Thunder team with a similar dominance late in the game. In the clutch this season, this team boasts the highest field goal percentage (53.7%), the highest offensive rating (129.6), and the 2nd highest net rating (23.4).

And unlike that team in 2020 that lived and died off the performance of Chris Paul, it’s 3 different guys, affecting the game in a variety of ways.

(All the upcoming stats are for players who have taken at least 10 shots in the clutch)

((Shoutout Aaron Wiggins though, who is the first name that comes up if you search FG% with no filter))

First, you have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The head of the snake on offense, a perennial MVP candidate, one of the most unguardable players in the entire league, widely regarded as one of the clutchest shot makers in the world. He is currently 10th in clutch points (70), and field goal percentage (61%), which is phenomenal in and of itself.

However, much like most of the discourse around Shai this year, the offense doesn’t tell you the whole story. Shai is also tied for 2nd in the league in steals made in the clutch (5). He clearly made his defense a point of emphasis over the offseason, currently leading the league in steals by a wide margin. And that clearly reflects in late game situations as well!

Then you have Chet Holmgren. A rookie who has defied every expectation, has provided an unprecedented impact to a team that was in the play-in game just last year, is the lead for Rookie of the year, a borderline All-Star, and is already one of the best rim protectors in the game. He, to a lesser but still impressive degree, is 29th in clutch FG% (53.6%) which is still great for a 3rd option on offense, and he’s already had a couple clutch moments on offense this year.

But much like Shai, it’s the defense where his impact is mostly felt. Chet is currently 4th in blocks per game (2.6) and 3rd in total blocks (111), and that has trickled into the clutch as well. Chet currently leads the league in clutch time blocks with 9 (!!) , that’s a full 2 blocks more than the 2nd highest, which, interestingly enough, is his rookie nemesis Victor Wembanyama who has 7. Late in the game, teams look for the best shots they can get, and there is no better look than at the rim… unless Chet is there and then you should probably look elsewhere.

Finally, you have arguably the most impressive stat in this article. Jalen Williams, known as JDub, Dub, or around the holidays he is affectionately referred to as Santa (real ones know what’s up). Dub is in his sophomore season, but he has been playing like a seasoned vet as of late.

In the game against the Magic on January 13th, he scored a quick flurry of points at the beginning of the 4th quarter and started tapping his wrist declaring that it’s “Dub time”! That’s the time when Shai is off the court to start the 4th quarter (and to a lesser extent the 2nd quarter). For about 6 to 7 minutes, it’s alllllllll Jalen Williams. Buckets, creation, defense, what have you; this is his time to cook, this is truly Dub time. It’s helped us cut into leads, hold leads, and extend leads. Dub time.

But what he does at the end of the 4th, is even more eye popping.

As of this writing, Jalen Williams leads the league in clutch FG% with 72.7% on 22 shots. Just last night against the Blazers, he had 3/4 shots go down (all in about the exact same spot), including what ended up being the game winner, in almost the exact same spot Shai called game against the Blazers the year prior.

What’s important about these shots? The Thunder used Shai as a screener for Dub, and then had him flare to the top of the three point line as a decoy, leaving Dub 1 on 1 against the diminutive Anfernee Simons.

Chet also had 3 of his 6 blocks in the 4th quarter. And despite Dub hitting the shot, it was Shai who stole the inbound alley-oop attempt as the clock expired to finally ice the game.

In its early conception, the Thunder relied on Kevin Durant. In 2016-17, the Thunder relied on Russell Westbrook. In 2020, the Thunder relied on Chris Paul. And in the years prior to this one, the Thunder relied solely on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

For the first time in forever, it’s not a one man band in OKC. It’s not Shai against the world. The Thunder have carefully hand picked, home grown, and developed three players at different positions, who have a killer mentality, buy in on both sides of the ball, are unselfish, and aren’t afraid of the moment.

The Thunder are no longer a one man show in the clutch. They are a tag team.

And no matter what area of the game they are effecting, no matter which one of them are tagged in, they’re coming for the belt.

They’re coming for the title.

Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs preview (Game 44 of 82)

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  • Oklahoma City Thunder (30-13, 1st in the West) @ San Antonio Spurs (8-35, 15th in the West)
  • When: Wednesday, 24 January 2024 at 8:30pm CST
  • Where: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
  • Offensive Rating – SAS: 109.3 (28th) / OKC: 119.6 (6th)
  • Defensive Rating – SAS: 118.2 (25th) / OKC: 111.6 (5th)
  • Net Rating – SAS: -8.8 (26th) / OKC: 8.0 (3rd)

The Set-Up

Now comes the hard part. It’s easy to be the hunter. It’s the position most teams in the league are. But when you are at the top, you become the hunted. And that’s an entirely different set of circumstances. In a perfect world, every team would be receiving another team’s best shot in every game. But we know motivation can be a hell of a weapon. Just look at last night’s game. The Thunder needed a last second game winner (and some controversy) to come away with a 2-point victory against a team OKC had beat the previous two times they’ve played by a combined 105 points. Now when teams look at OKC, they’ll see a metaphorical crown to snatch.

This is the second of four meetings this season between these two teams. The Thunder won the first game convincingly, 123-87, in Oklahoma City, in mid-November.

Betting Info

  • Line: OKC -7.5
  • O/U: 242.5

Injury Report

OKC

  • Olivier Sarr (hip) – Day to Day

SAS

  • Charles Bassey (knee) – OUT
  • Sidy Cissoko (ankle) – OUT
  • Tre Jones (ankle) – Questionable

Three Big Things

  1. Mental focus – There were times in the game against the Trailblazers where the Thunder weren’t necessarily playing like themselves. Going for steals which then set the back line defenders up for failure. Taking inefficient shots. Turning the ball over. It was classic “we’re better than this team and we know we can coast and still win”. And they did. It felt very 2015-2019’ish, when the Thunder would consistently play down to their opponents and need a monster comeback to win the game.
  2. The Chet vs. Wemby match-up we’ve been waiting for – The previous match-up between these two was a bit disappointing. Not necessarily disappointing because of the individual players. But disappointing because they hardly ever matched up against each other throughout the evening. San Antonio usually deploys Zach Collins to tackle the opposing center, while the Thunder look for match ups that keep Chet closest to the rim. Luckily for us, the Spurs have recently been using starting line-ups that feature only Wembanyama as the center.
  3. Pace Race – These two teams love to push the ball up the floor. They are top-7 in the league in both pace and fast-break points. Should make for a fun game for the national TV audience.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Thunder preview (Game 11 of 82 / In-Season Tournament Game #3)

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  • San Antonio Spurs (3-7) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (6-4)
  • When: Tuesday, 14 October 2023 at 6:30pm CST
  • Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
  • Offensive Rating – SA: 108.4 (26th) / OKC: 113.6 (8th)
  • Defensive Rating – SA: 119.8 (29th) / OKC: 112.0 (15th)
  • Net Rating – SA: -11.3 (30th) / OKC: 1.7 (12th)

The Set-Up

Some rivalries form naturally over time. Take for instance the rivalry between the Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies in the late 2000s to early 2010s. That was more of a clash of styles that turned in some highly entertaining playoff games and series. The Grit-N-Grind Grizz vs. the superstar-laden Thunder. Defense (Grizz) vs. Offensive (Thunder). It made for a good rivalry. Nothing necessarily great, but entertaining, nonetheless.

Some rivalries, though, you see them coming from a mile away. Chamberlain vs. Russell. Magic vs. Bird. Jordan vs. the Bad Boy Pistons. There’s a greatness component involved in all of this, but there’s also a sense of inevitability. Like, this was meant to happen. What we see tonight may be the next evolution of an expected rivalry. Chet vs. Wemby. The Spurs may not currently be good and the Thunder may just be beginning their rise, but it is almost the expectation that these two teams will be battling for Western Conference supremacy for the next decade. And the match-up at the forefront of all games will likely be focused in on the two 7-footers who play the game in a way that has never been seen from players that height. A lot of people will tell you this is part 3 in their rivalry (U19 and then the preseason this year). But no. This is part 1. The beginning. The genesis of what could be an intense rivalry. And to top it off, it’s occurring during an In-Season Tournament pool play game. Bring on the high-stakes play!

Injury Report

OKC

  • None

SA

  • Keldon Johnson (knee) – Questionable
  • Tre Jones (hamstring) – Questionable
  • Jeremy Sochan (groin) – Questionable

Three Big Things

  1. Spurs aren’t terrible – Despite what the record and stats show, the Spurs are not a terrible team. Now, will they finish with a bad record? Yes, likely. But, a lot like the Thunder in recent memory, the Spurs will hang with teams for most of the games. It’s the end of games that tend to trip the Spurs up. That experience in late-game situations is something they are severely lacking. If you allow them to stick around, though, they can be a problem. Just ask the Suns.
  2. Pace/Turnover Battle – This should be a barn-burner of a game. Both teams are top-10 in pace and they both like to get out in transition. Both teams average about 15 turnovers per game. It feels like the team that limits their turnovers will prevent the other team’s main offensive engine from getting started up.
  3. Play to your strengths – While the Spurs have good defensive players in Wembanyama and Jeremy Sochan, San Antonio, as a team, is probably the worst defensive outfit in the league. They give up a league-worst 124.2 points per game. Meanwhile, the Thunder are one of the more efficient offenses in the league, coming in at 4th in 3-point percentage (37.5%), 1st in free-throw percentage (85.8%), 5th in effective field-goal percentage (55.7%), and 3rd in true-shooting percentage (60.1%). If the Thunder play their brand of basketball, they should win.

Ranking the Thunder’s 1st Round Picks through 2027

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Oklahoma City General Manager Sam Presti (left) and Vice President of Basketball Operations Will Dawkins (right) meet with the media after the 2022 NBA Draft. (Credit: Alex Roig)

The Oklahoma City Thunder did something in this past draft that they haven’t done since they started this rebuild in 2019. Instead of acquiring more future first round picks, they consolidated a couple of picks from their asset chest in order to move up to take the prospect they wanted. In this case, the prospect was Ousmane Dieng. And the cost was three future first round picks. All three of the picks the Thunder gave up were heavily protected (lottery or more) for the 2023 NBA Draft, and those protections stretched out for the next 2-5 years. In essence, the Thunder traded the three worst first round assets they had for a player they really wanted.

In all, the Thunder have 13 possible first round picks over the next five drafts (2023-2027). Some of those picks will have value as draft picks and some of them will have value as trade bait. But every first round pick the Thunder have will have some sort of valuation, which is big to Thunder GM Sam Presti. When the Thunder traded the 16th pick in the 2021 NBA Draft to the Houston Rockets for two future firsts, many questioned if Presti was getting a little too asset-collection happy. After that draft, Presti was asked about trading what turned out to be Alperen Sengun for two future firsts. “It was just, it was a valuation of the asset and I think over time, we’ll be able to figure out different ways to utilize those. There’s really nothing more to it than that. It was just way above the line for the general value of that pick, and we’re going to probably make that decision most of the time.”

In this article, I wanted to look at the value of the 13 first round picks the Thunder have over the next five drafts. With that said, this is going to be perceived valuation based on the normal cycle teams go through in the NBA. I don’t have a crystal ball and can’t foresee things like injuries and future signings. These valuations are based on the current premise of the teams involved and the general evolution of what happens to teams in these positions. Without further ado, here are the values of the Thunder’s 13 future first round picks from least valuable to most valuable.

No. 13 – OKC’s 2027 first round pick

No. 12 – OKC’s 2026 first round pick

I put these two picks together because I think they hold the least amount of value to teams looking to deal with the Thunder. The Thunder will continue to add young talent to this team over the next few drafts. Also, as OKC gets better, they will likely add valuable veterans to the team via trade or (I can’t believe I’m saying this) free agency. As the collective talent on the team goes up, so will the wins. And as the wins increase, the draft position will also weaken. The Thunder will likely start to be good in 2024. But they will likely start to be great around 2026 or 2027. Hence, their draft picks will not be of much value to other teams.

No. 11 – Houston’s 2026 first round pick (Top-4 protected in ’26. Converts into a ’26 2nd rounder if it isn’t conveyed)

While Golden State, Boston, Milwaukee, and Los Angeles battle for league supremacy, OKC, Houston, Detroit, and Orlando are currently battling for draft position. Houston and OKC started their rebuilds around the same time. As Houston also continues to stack talent via the draft, their trajectory is likely to be very similar to OKC’s. For that reason, their 2026 pick is likely to be later in the first round than early in the first round.

No. 10 – Los Angeles Clippers’ 2024 first round pick (Unprotected)

If you think it’s crazy that an unprotected pick is only No. 10 on this list, I don’t blame you. Hell, I initially had this as the least valuable pick in the Thunder’s asset chest. But the pick being unprotected kind of forced me to move it down a couple spots. The reason I hesitate on giving this pick too much value is because the Clippers (sans injuries) are likely to be awesome over the next season or two. Like, “best record in the NBA” awesome. Like, “pick in the late 20’s or worse” awesome. Even with Kawhi Leonard out for the season and Paul George out for most of the season, the Clippers still found themselves in the midst of the play-in tournament. With those two back in tow and a point guard tandem of Reggie Jackson and Paul Wall, the Clippers could be real good when this pick is ready to convey.

No. 9 – Miami’s 2025 first round pick (Lottery protected for ’25. If not conveyed in ’25, it will be unprotected for ’26)

I really debated on where to put this pick due to the unprotected nature of it in it’s 2nd year. But Miami has three things going for it: two of their stars are young (Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro), they are a well run organization from top to bottom, and Miami is a prime free agent destination. Based on those three things, I don’t think the Heat will bottom out any time soon.

No. 8 – Philadelphia’s 2025 first round pick (Top-6 protected in ’25. Top-4 protected in ’26 & ’27. If not conveyed by ’27, it converts into a ’27 second rounder)

No. 7 – Utah’s 2024 first round pick (Top-10 protected in ’24 & ’25. Top-8 protected in ’26. If it doesn’t convey by ’26, OKC will receive $890K in cash)

I put these two picks together because these two teams a very close to being in turmoil over the next couple of seasons. For as great as Joel Embiid has been in his career, he’s never made it to a conference finals. Add to the mix, James Harden, who isn’t really known as a bastion of team chemistry, and the Sixers are a disappointing season or two away from being in complete flux. In addition, Embiid’s possible shelf life as a large human being who has had foot issues in the past could rear it’s ugly head in the near future.

The Utah Jazz seem to be the basketball version of the guy who peaked in high school. When the Jazz made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs in Donovan Mitchell’s rookie season, everyone thought that was just the beginning. Fast forward four seasons later and the Jazz still haven’t made it out of the 2nd round of the playoffs, their salary sheet is bloated, and their starting center shut down the world for two years (and now resides in Minnesota). Quin Snyder stepped down this offseason and Mitchell said aloud that he doesn’t know where he goes from here. The hope for Thunder fans is that the Jazz go the Portland route and try to use the picks they obtained in the Gobert deal to build around Mitchell for the next couple of seasons.

No. 6 – OKC’s 2025 first round pick

As mentioned in the explanation for OKC’s 2026 and 2027 picks, the Thunder could be well into their upward trajectory in 2025. They are likely to not be as good in 2025 as they are in ’26 and ’27, but they will likely be “playoff” good. This will be Josh Giddey and Tre Mann’s fourth season and Chet Holgrem, Jalen Williams, and Dieng’s third season. If the jump in their games were to happen, it would likely coincide with the 2024-25 season. But why would this pick be so valuable? The Thunder have the option to swap their pick with either the Clippers (unprotected) or the Rockets (Top-10 protected). If the Clippers hit an injury bug or if the Rockets aren’t progressing in their rebuild as quickly as the Thunder, the Thunder could end up with a better pick than their record suggests.

No. 5 – Denver’s 2027 first round pick (Top-5 protected for ’27 – ’29. Converts to a ’29 2nd rounder if it hasn’t conveyed by then)

Great teams usually have a shelf life of 3-5 years. Denver will be heading into Year 3 of their current situation. Injuries to Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. completely derailed last season, but Nikola Jokic still found ways to dominate on his way to his 2nd consecutive MVP award. But with their financial flexibility capped out and injury concerns for two of their three stars moving forward, this pick may be conveying around the time this team’s shelf life may be coming to end (if not already there by then).

No. 4 – OKC’s 2024 first round pick

No. 3 – Houston’s 2024 first round pick (Top-4 protected. If it isn’t conveyed, the Thunder would get Houston’s 2nd rounder in ’24 & ’25)

I lumped these two picks together because so much of their value is going to depend on what happens in the 2023 NBA Draft. If either of these teams lucks into Victor Wembanyama, their outlook changes immensely.

No. 2 – Los Angeles Clippers’ 2026 first round pick (Unprotected)

There’s a possibility the Clippers could still be good after the ’25-’26 season. But there’s also a high possibility that four more seasons of wear and tear will have had their effect on Leonard and George, along with the Clippers’ bloated cap sheet and lack of assets, to lead them into a slow decline that culminates in a great pick in this draft.

No. 1 – OKC’s 2023 first round pick

Wemby, y’all.