The Oklahoma City Thunder did something in this past draft that they haven’t done since they started this rebuild in 2019. Instead of acquiring more future first round picks, they consolidated a couple of picks from their asset chest in order to move up to take the prospect they wanted. In this case, the prospect was Ousmane Dieng. And the cost was three future first round picks. All three of the picks the Thunder gave up were heavily protected (lottery or more) for the 2023 NBA Draft, and those protections stretched out for the next 2-5 years. In essence, the Thunder traded the three worst first round assets they had for a player they really wanted.
In all, the Thunder have 13 possible first round picks over the next five drafts (2023-2027). Some of those picks will have value as draft picks and some of them will have value as trade bait. But every first round pick the Thunder have will have some sort of valuation, which is big to Thunder GM Sam Presti. When the Thunder traded the 16th pick in the 2021 NBA Draft to the Houston Rockets for two future firsts, many questioned if Presti was getting a little too asset-collection happy. After that draft, Presti was asked about trading what turned out to be Alperen Sengun for two future firsts. “It was just, it was a valuation of the asset and I think over time, we’ll be able to figure out different ways to utilize those. There’s really nothing more to it than that. It was just way above the line for the general value of that pick, and we’re going to probably make that decision most of the time.”
In this article, I wanted to look at the value of the 13 first round picks the Thunder have over the next five drafts. With that said, this is going to be perceived valuation based on the normal cycle teams go through in the NBA. I don’t have a crystal ball and can’t foresee things like injuries and future signings. These valuations are based on the current premise of the teams involved and the general evolution of what happens to teams in these positions. Without further ado, here are the values of the Thunder’s 13 future first round picks from least valuable to most valuable.
No. 13 – OKC’s 2027 first round pick
No. 12 – OKC’s 2026 first round pick
I put these two picks together because I think they hold the least amount of value to teams looking to deal with the Thunder. The Thunder will continue to add young talent to this team over the next few drafts. Also, as OKC gets better, they will likely add valuable veterans to the team via trade or (I can’t believe I’m saying this) free agency. As the collective talent on the team goes up, so will the wins. And as the wins increase, the draft position will also weaken. The Thunder will likely start to be good in 2024. But they will likely start to be great around 2026 or 2027. Hence, their draft picks will not be of much value to other teams.
No. 11 – Houston’s 2026 first round pick (Top-4 protected in ’26. Converts into a ’26 2nd rounder if it isn’t conveyed)
While Golden State, Boston, Milwaukee, and Los Angeles battle for league supremacy, OKC, Houston, Detroit, and Orlando are currently battling for draft position. Houston and OKC started their rebuilds around the same time. As Houston also continues to stack talent via the draft, their trajectory is likely to be very similar to OKC’s. For that reason, their 2026 pick is likely to be later in the first round than early in the first round.
No. 10 – Los Angeles Clippers’ 2024 first round pick (Unprotected)
If you think it’s crazy that an unprotected pick is only No. 10 on this list, I don’t blame you. Hell, I initially had this as the least valuable pick in the Thunder’s asset chest. But the pick being unprotected kind of forced me to move it down a couple spots. The reason I hesitate on giving this pick too much value is because the Clippers (sans injuries) are likely to be awesome over the next season or two. Like, “best record in the NBA” awesome. Like, “pick in the late 20’s or worse” awesome. Even with Kawhi Leonard out for the season and Paul George out for most of the season, the Clippers still found themselves in the midst of the play-in tournament. With those two back in tow and a point guard tandem of Reggie Jackson and Paul Wall, the Clippers could be real good when this pick is ready to convey.
No. 9 – Miami’s 2025 first round pick (Lottery protected for ’25. If not conveyed in ’25, it will be unprotected for ’26)
I really debated on where to put this pick due to the unprotected nature of it in it’s 2nd year. But Miami has three things going for it: two of their stars are young (Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro), they are a well run organization from top to bottom, and Miami is a prime free agent destination. Based on those three things, I don’t think the Heat will bottom out any time soon.
No. 8 – Philadelphia’s 2025 first round pick (Top-6 protected in ’25. Top-4 protected in ’26 & ’27. If not conveyed by ’27, it converts into a ’27 second rounder)
No. 7 – Utah’s 2024 first round pick (Top-10 protected in ’24 & ’25. Top-8 protected in ’26. If it doesn’t convey by ’26, OKC will receive $890K in cash)
I put these two picks together because these two teams a very close to being in turmoil over the next couple of seasons. For as great as Joel Embiid has been in his career, he’s never made it to a conference finals. Add to the mix, James Harden, who isn’t really known as a bastion of team chemistry, and the Sixers are a disappointing season or two away from being in complete flux. In addition, Embiid’s possible shelf life as a large human being who has had foot issues in the past could rear it’s ugly head in the near future.
The Utah Jazz seem to be the basketball version of the guy who peaked in high school. When the Jazz made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs in Donovan Mitchell’s rookie season, everyone thought that was just the beginning. Fast forward four seasons later and the Jazz still haven’t made it out of the 2nd round of the playoffs, their salary sheet is bloated, and their starting center shut down the world for two years (and now resides in Minnesota). Quin Snyder stepped down this offseason and Mitchell said aloud that he doesn’t know where he goes from here. The hope for Thunder fans is that the Jazz go the Portland route and try to use the picks they obtained in the Gobert deal to build around Mitchell for the next couple of seasons.
No. 6 – OKC’s 2025 first round pick
As mentioned in the explanation for OKC’s 2026 and 2027 picks, the Thunder could be well into their upward trajectory in 2025. They are likely to not be as good in 2025 as they are in ’26 and ’27, but they will likely be “playoff” good. This will be Josh Giddey and Tre Mann’s fourth season and Chet Holgrem, Jalen Williams, and Dieng’s third season. If the jump in their games were to happen, it would likely coincide with the 2024-25 season. But why would this pick be so valuable? The Thunder have the option to swap their pick with either the Clippers (unprotected) or the Rockets (Top-10 protected). If the Clippers hit an injury bug or if the Rockets aren’t progressing in their rebuild as quickly as the Thunder, the Thunder could end up with a better pick than their record suggests.
No. 5 – Denver’s 2027 first round pick (Top-5 protected for ’27 – ’29. Converts to a ’29 2nd rounder if it hasn’t conveyed by then)
Great teams usually have a shelf life of 3-5 years. Denver will be heading into Year 3 of their current situation. Injuries to Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. completely derailed last season, but Nikola Jokic still found ways to dominate on his way to his 2nd consecutive MVP award. But with their financial flexibility capped out and injury concerns for two of their three stars moving forward, this pick may be conveying around the time this team’s shelf life may be coming to end (if not already there by then).
No. 4 – OKC’s 2024 first round pick
No. 3 – Houston’s 2024 first round pick (Top-4 protected. If it isn’t conveyed, the Thunder would get Houston’s 2nd rounder in ’24 & ’25)
I lumped these two picks together because so much of their value is going to depend on what happens in the 2023 NBA Draft. If either of these teams lucks into Victor Wembanyama, their outlook changes immensely.
No. 2 – Los Angeles Clippers’ 2026 first round pick (Unprotected)
There’s a possibility the Clippers could still be good after the ’25-’26 season. But there’s also a high possibility that four more seasons of wear and tear will have had their effect on Leonard and George, along with the Clippers’ bloated cap sheet and lack of assets, to lead them into a slow decline that culminates in a great pick in this draft.
No. 1 – OKC’s 2023 first round pick
Wemby, y’all.