Current Streaks: CHI: Winner of 1, loser of 11 straight prior to that / OKC: Winners of 2 straight, 5-1 since the All-Star break
The Tip-Off
Funny how you get an MVP back in the line-up and all the struggles from the previous 3 weeks are forgotten. When healthy, the Thunder are still the team to beat in the NBA. While this season has been mired by the “potholes in the road” by injuries, they are still arguably the best team in the NBA, by a significant margin. Friday night showed that. Denver gave it their best shot with Nikola Jokic having a monster triple-double and Jamal Murray pitching in 39 points. And yet, even with a chance to win it in overtime with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sitting, the Nuggets looked like they were the team that was suffering from the altitude in OKC. SGA’s time off the floor may have unlocked different aspects of the team that could yield positive returns come playoff time. Isaiah Joe, Jared McCain, and Cason Wallace each were significant contributors to the Thunder beating the Nuggets in OT.
This is the first of two meetings this season between the Thunder and Bulls. OKC has now won 6 straight games against Chicago, dating back to the 2022-23 season, with an average margin of victory of 16.5 points.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – OUT (abdominal strain / injury management)
Isaiah Hartenstein – OUT (calf strain / injury management)
Ajay Mitchell – OUT (abdominal strain / ankle)
Thomas Sorber – OFS (knee/ACL)
Jalen Williams – OUT (hamstring)
CHI
Zach Collins – OFS (toe)
Noa Essengue – OFS (shoulder)
Jaden Ivey – OUT (knee)
Anfernee Simons – OUT (wrist)
Jalen Smith – OUT (calf)
Patrick Williams – OUT (quad)
Three Big Things
Defending a Hodge-podge – The Bulls currently are just a cobbled up gaggle of undersized point guards, Josh Giddey, Matas Buzelis, and non-center centers. The unusualness of their current line-ups is where they can trip opponents up. The Thunder are made to defend the line-ups of today’s basketball. But if there is no Jokic, Doncic, or Ant Edwards to hyperfocus on, this team’s defense can sometimes be left scrambling, especially against guard heavy line-ups (see Charlotte and Utah).
Josh Giddey revenge game? – We just saw Ousmane Dieng have one of the best games of his career in his return to OKC right before the All-Star break. There were, of course, plenty of variables at play that could have contributed to such a performance, such as not having any play-makers available and the team having a “1-2-3 Cancun!” mentality after a roller-coaster first half of the season. But coming into tonight, there are similar variables at play: No play-makers available to them and the team possibly looking forward to the game on Wednesday in New York. There is trap game potential in this game and it could be spearheaded by Giddey.
Cason Wallace – With SGA, Mitchell, and Dub being out for tonight, the team will likely look to Cason to be their de-facto play-maker. And he’s been great since the All-Star break, averaging 6.5 assists per game, while boasting a 3:1 assist to turnover ratio. In that same span, he’s also averaging 15.3 points on 45/50/90 shooting splits.
Current Streaks: MEM: 1-5 in their last 6 / OKC: 5-2 in their last 7
The Set-Up
A win is a win, right? While the way it played out may not have been what we wanted, the Thunder eventually outlasted the Jazz in overtime and won a close game. It was almost like you didn’t know how to feel about the win. Like, yeah, you won. But it was almost foreign. Jalen Williams said it best, after the Jazz game: “This is going to sound cocky, but the last 3 years we won so much that when we have a normal human stretch of losing a game or 2 that we shouldnβt have, the world freaks out.β That’s probably one of the best ways to frame it. The bar has been set so high by the Thunder that when they lose to inferior opponents or when they win a close game to a “tanking team”, the entire fanbase loses their collective shit. In addition, the team is dealing with variables that they haven’t dealt with in the past. A shortened offseason, constant injuries to key rotation pieces, a crappy schedule (again), and dealing with being every team’s SuperBowl every night. That takes a toll and I think we are seeing it now. But like any great team, it’s on OKC to weather the storm and come out prepared for those games of consequence in April, May, and hopefully, June.
This is the third and final meeting of the season between the Thunder and Grizzlies. OKC has won the first two meetings this season by an average of 15 points. Dating back to December 2022, the Thunder have won 15 straight meetings against the Grizzlies, to include the playoffs.
Rebounding – With Isaiah Hartenstein missing the last few weeks, rebounding has been a big issue with the Thunder. Chet Holmgren tries to do what he can, as he has been averaging 8.8 rebounds since Dec. 18th, but the lack of size and physicality on the front line has put the Thunder in precarious positions in close games. The Grizzlies come into this game as one of the best rebounding teams in the league, ranking No. 3 in total rebounds (46.3 per game) and No. 7 in Rebound Percentage. The Grizzlies may be without Zach Edey in this game, but Jaren Jackson Jr, Santi Aldama, and Jock Landale all average above or close to 6 rebounds a game, with Landale racking up nearly 3 rebounds on the offensive end.
Powering through injuries – With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren both being out for the Thunder, the onus of scoring will likely fall on Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell. But whether we win or lose may rest upon the so-called “others”. Part of the reason why we were able to sustain and win during this stretch last season was because Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe got hot for about a 1-2 month stretch (from January to March). A performance like that will likely be necessary for the Thunder to win a game like this one.
Cam Spencer – Yes, Cam frickin’ Spencer. I can’t believe one of my points of emphasis is Cam Spencer. For some reason, we always get cooked by shorter, seemingly unathletic, point guards. Guys like, oh, I don’t know, Pat Spencer, TJ McConnell, Jose Alvarado, etc. But there always comes a point in the game, especially if it’s close, where the Thunder clamped down, don’t bite on the cute little fakes, and eventually make players like that a liability for the opponent. But if you are missing the bulk of your good defensive players and your interior defensive anchor is out, then this may be a game where a guy like Spencer could show out.
Current Streak: UTA: Lost 4 straight, 2-8 in their last 10 / OKC: Lost 2 straight, 6-6 in their last 12
The Set-Up
Sam Presti on April 20th, 2023:
βThe sky falls on every NBA team at least two times a yearβ¦ You may play horrible for weeks, it may be a month. You donβt want to have several monthsβ¦ The teams that have a sophisticated competitiveness to them understand that while youβreβ¦ pic.twitter.com/0hWvl6DpW2
Sam Presti, 20 April 2023. We’re going to be okay, guys.
This is the third of four meetings this season between these Northwest Division rivals. The Thunder have won the first two meetings this season by an average of 31 points.
Offensive Mojo – If there is a team to get your offensive mojo back, it’s definitely against the Utah Jazz. The Jazz are the worst defensive team in the league by a good margin. They are 25th in steals and 30th in blocks. To further help the Thunder’s cause, the Jazz rank 28th in Opponent Points off Turnovers. If the Thunder are going to get their get-back offensively, this is just the team to do it against. And this goes for whether Shai Gilgeous-Alexander plays in this game or not. The one game SGA missed this season was against Utah, and Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren took care of business in a 30-point victory.
Dynamic Duo – While the Jazz may be bad defensively, they’ve definitely surprised some teams with what they do on the offensive end. Lauri Markkanen (nearly 28 points and 7 rebounds per game) and Keyonte George (24 points and nearly 7 assists per game) have quietly formed a formidable duo in Utah…albeit on the offensive end. Utah’s next evolution may be in finding defensive-minded players that fit around their two offensive stars. With OKC’s propensity for letting offensive-minded players get hot early and stay hot in games lately, it would behoove the Thunder to get back to their brand of defense and make it a difficult night for these two players.
Ajay Mitchell – In their last game against the Jazz, Mitchell only scored 7 points and dished out 4 assists, but was a team-high +32. His ability to break down the defense and get into the paint at will is such a weapon. If the Thunder can get their 3-point shooting groove back, it would make Mitchell that much more effective as a floor general/play-maker.
Current Streaks: PHX: 2-1 in their last 3, 6-4 in their last 10 / OKC: 15 W’s in a row
The Set-Up
Chasing history. With a win tonight, the Oklahoma City Thunder will match the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors for the best start in NBA history at 24-1. While the records would be the same, the method in which they’ve arrived have been completely different. The Warriors changed the way the game was played offensively with their dominant pace and space style. The Thunder, on the other hand, are doing this with their other-worldly defense. The similarities are pretty loud also. Stephen Curry and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have similar impacts on their teams, while the supporting cast would be stars and starters on other teams. In addition, the coaching on both teams was top-notch and very player-driven. Now, OKC just has to go out there and do it.
This is the 2nd of (now) 5 meetings this season between the Suns and Thunder. Oklahoma City won the first meeting, which was also an NBA Cup game, by a score of 123-119. It was one of the few close games the Thunder have played recently. In that game, Jalen Williams returned to the lineup after missing the first 19 games of the season recovering from wrist surgery. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 37 points, Chet Holmgren pitched in with 23 points and 8 rebounds, and the Thunder were able to hold off a late push from Collin Gillespie and the surprising Suns.
SGA is back – After a one-game absence, SGA is back in the lineup. While it does seem like SGA is dealing with something with his elbow, as evidenced by the tapework he usually has on it most games, it was also a great time in the schedule to buy Shai a game of rest. Playing against the directionless Utah Jazz allowed the team to give the reins to the other two members of their core 3, and they did what they were supposed to do. SGA may not be playing major minutes when compared to other high-usage players, but getting him a game of rest here and there is tantamount to the success of this team moving forward.
2nd Chance Points – Phoenix comes into this game as the 4th best offensive rebounding team in terms of OReb%, the 6th best offensive rebounding team in terms of raw stats (nearly 13 a game), and 9th in 2nd chance points at 16 Second Chance Points per game. With Isaiah Hartenstein being out, the onus will fall on Chet Holmgren and Jaylin Williams to secure defensive rebounds and prevent those 2nd chance points. In their last meeting, Phoenix’s near 4th quarter comeback was spurred by 7 offensive rebounds and 9 second chance points in the final quarter.
Track Meet – Both of these teams like to create turnovers and get out in transition. The Thunder and Suns are #1 and 2, respectively, in points off turnovers. Where they differ completely is in how they defend turnovers. OKC is the #1 team in defending points off turnovers, while Phoenix is 28th in that same category. If OKC can play their game, they can win the turnover battle and the points off turnover battle.
Cup Night! It’s weird, but this little experiment seems to be working. Players seem to be getting up for these games and the optics of the court and the jerseys make it something to look forward to. In addition, teams know that point differential matters, so they are staying on the gas for the full 48 minutes. Teams know they only get one game against each of the teams in their group, so the competitiveness of the games is ratcheted up. Anything can happen in a one-game series. And that’s the beauty of the Cup.
This is the first of four meetings this season between these Northwest Division rivals. OKC swept the season series last year, winning the four games by an average of 23.3 points.
Home-Cooking – The Utah Jazz are the OKC Thunder of home teams. In their seven home games (four of which have been wins), the Jazz rank 1st in points per game (134.0 ppg), 1st in free throws attempted (32.3 per game), 1st in free throws made (27 per game), 1st in rebounds per game (50.4 per game), 1st in assists per game (33 per game), 2nd in offensive rating, 3rd in 3-point FGs made, and 6th in True Shooting %. Lauri Markkanen is averaging 9 more points per game at home than on the road and shooting nearly 18% higher on threes in the friendly confines of the Delta Center. This team is just different when they play at home.
Controlling the glass – Utah is one of the top rebounding teams in the league. Even with Walker Kessler being out the last nine games (and out of the season), Utah has still ranked 5th in offensive rebounds per game, 4th in total rebounds per game, and 7th in rebound percentage. This, in turn, fuels the 2nd chance opportunities to the tune of 18.1 points per game. There aren’t many things that fuel young teams at home than 2nd chance opportunities.
Turn them over – While strong on the glass, the Jazz suffer from the ailment that pains many young teams: their inability to limit turnovers. Utah nearly dead last in turnovers and does a bad job of limiting points off of turnovers. OKC, on the other hand, leads the league in causing turnovers and in points off of turnovers.
The balance that is rest vs. rust. In their last game against the Phoenix Suns, the Thunder sat about half of their main rotation for rest. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren showed why they are future superstars in the league and handled the Suns pretty easily. Tonight, the Thunder are stretching even further into the “rest” pool, only playing about 30% of their main 10-11 man rotation. The ultimate goal is no injuries heading into the playoffs, but with the Thunder being the No. 1 seed and having about a week off between the end of the regular season and the beginning of the playoffs, you also don’t want rust to set in. It’s a puzzle, but it’s a good puzzle to have to solve.
This is the 4th and final meeting of the season between the Thunder and Jazz. The Thunder have won the previous 3 meetings, with two of those victories being by 27 points and the third one being by 9 points.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -9.5
O/U: 234.5
Injury Report
OKC
Alex Caruso – OUT (ankle)
Ousmane Dieng – OUT (calf)
Lu Dort – OUT (knee)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – OUT (shin)
Isaiah Hartenstein – OUT (Achilles)
Chet Holmgren – OUT (back)
Nikola Topic – OUT (knee)
Cason Wallace – OUT (shoulder)
Jalen Williams – OUT (hip)
UTA
Jordan Clarkson – OUT (foot – plantar fasciitis)
Isaiah Collier – Questionable (hamstring)
John Collins – OUT (ankle)
Elijah Harkless – OUT (groin)
Taylor Hendricks – OUT (leg)
Walker Kessler – OUT (concussion)
KJ Martin – OUT (illness)
Lauri Markkanen – OUT (knee)
Cody Williams – OUT (illness – mono)
Three Big Things
1. Ajay Mitchell’s return – After being out for three months, Ajay Mitchell returns back to the Thunder’s line-up in time for the playoffs. The turf toe and subsequent surgery caused Mitchell to miss 46 games in what was looking to be an All-Rookie campaign. The Thunder now have the final two games to see what Mitchell can provide out on the floor and game-plan to see if he will be in the rotation for the playoffs.
2. Perimeter Defense – The Thunder will arguably be without their top-7 defenders tonight. They may especially miss the perimeter defense of Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace. Due to Utah’s rash of injuries, most of their offense is being run through their trio of young guards in Keyonte George, Collin Sexton, and Isaiah Collier. Do the Thunder have enough defense to make life difficult for those three players?
3. Jaylin Williams – triple double? – The last two times the Thunder have had a “tank war” game, Jaylin Williams has ended up with a triple double. The back-up big man known for his passing usually shines when the majority of the offense is run through him in these types of games. Should we just put another triple double in the column for J-Will?
The top-4 teams in the Western Conference are separated by half a game. HALF A GAME! A rough night at the office and a team could tumble from 1st to 4th pretty quickly. The Thunder have gone from hardly playing any games of consequence over the last three seasons to playing a game of consequence almost nightly. The Thunder and Timberwolves have seemingly been tit for tat for the better part of the new year. The Clippers are the hottest team in the league right now and the Nuggets likely haven’t even started playing their best brand of basketball yet.
With all that said, I’ve been very impressed by Oklahoma City’s poise and maturity throughout the season. The start the season as the “hunters” and still have the same hunger and focus once they became the “hunted”, takes a perspective way beyond the age of most of the players of the roster. Once they win the games, though, you see this team’s age in their post-game interviews. Here’s to continuing to win while young.
This is the third meeting of the season between these two division rivals. The Thunder have won the previous two, 134-120 in December and 134-129 in January. Their fourth and final meeting of the season is on March 20th.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -3.5
O/U: 240.5
Injury Report
OKC
Davis Bertans (knee) – Questionable
Ousmane Dieng (hip) – Questionable
Isaiah Joe (chest) – OUT
Vasilije Micic (ankle) – Questionable
Cason Wallace (shoulder) – Questionable
Lindy Waters III (ankle) – Questionable
Jalen Williams (ankle) – Questionable
Jaylin Williams (Achilles) – Questionable
UTA
Ochai Agbaji (illness) – Questionable
Three Big Things
Trade Deadline Shenanigans – The game before the trade deadline and the game after the trade deadline always have the possibilities of being weird, roster-wise. The Thunder haven’t had an injury report that looked like that all season long. And now, the game before the trade deadline, half the roster is on the injury report. It may mean something. It may mean nothing. But it’s always shenanigans.
Turn them over – The Utah Jazz are the most turnover-prone team in the league. They don’t have any real “floor-general” type players. All their point guards are undersized combo guards that aren’t great at playmaking. This plays immensely into what the Thunder do best defensively and what they like to do offensively (transition).
Rebounding – Conversely, where the Jazz are great, the Thunder struggle. If the Thunder can’t turn the Jazz over and this turns into a half-court affair, the Thunder will need all-hands on deck in the rebounding department. Between Walker Kessler, John Collins, and Lauri Markkanen, the Jazz boast three guys that average 7.4 rebounds or more per game. The Thunder have only one in Chet Holmgren (7.5 rebounds per game).
It’s a bit crazy to play against a team and covet so many of their players. Teams like Brooklyn and Utah are loaded with veterans that would instantly make the Thunder an even better team. Both teams are in some sort of weird transition (either between rebuilding or putting together a playoff team) and have coveted vets from the aftermaths of major trades they made in the past. I can name five players on Brooklyn and three players on Utah who would look good in Thunder blue. And many of those players would not cost a ton for the Thunder to acquire. As the Thunder play Brooklyn tonight, just pay attention to some of the players on the Nets, as they made end up in OKC in due time.
This is the 2nd and final meeting of the season between these two teams. The Thunder beat the Nets 124-106 on New Year’s Eve in Oklahoma City.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -5.5
O/U: 234.5
Injury Report
OKC
None
BKN
Ben Simmons (back) – OUT
Dennis Smith Jr. (back) – Probable
Lonnie Walker IV (hamstring) – Probable
Three Big Things
Another Desperate Team – The Atlanta Hawks had come into Wednesday’s game having lost four of their last five and looking at a season that was quickly spiraling into disappointment. The Brooklyn Nets are in that same boat. Having lost 10 of their last 12, and currently riding a 5-game losing streak, the Nets are looking to get back on the right track. These two teams played each other less than a week ago and the Nets had a great first quarter in that game, before they seemingly forgot how to shoot and ended up losing by 16.
Cam Thomas – The definition of a microwave scorer. Just this season alone, in 26 games, Thomas has had two 40-point games, four 30-point games, and nine 20-point games. He looked like he was well on his way to another 40-point night on New Year’s Eve in OKC, starting that game shooting 4-4 for 10 points in 6 minutes of game action in the first quarter. He shot 3-14 the rest of the game and missed 4 free throws along the way. He still finished with 20, but could’ve had so much more.
Controlled Defensive Aggressiveness – The Nets do a great job of protecting the ball. They are the 4th best at protecting the ball, averaging just 12.6 turnovers a game. Against the Thunder last Sunday, the Nets only had seven turnovers. It was an over-aggressive defense in the first quarter of that game that allowed the Nets to get so many open looks. Oklahoma City corrected as the game went on, but it was a lesson to be learned.
That signature win at home. That win that made the Paycom feel like it was the Chesapeake Energy Arena. Where the thunderous drum guided the chants of defense and the crowd chanted “O…K…C!” when the team was on offense. We finally got that with the game against the Warriors. That feeling like we’re finally back. Walking back to my car that evening, the crowd was still in a fervor, chanting “OKC” as we crossed the underpass on Reno. It felt like the good ol’ days. Hopefully more of those days are forthcoming, because it was a great feeling.
As we head to a vote on Tuesday, December 12th, to determine if the city will continue the $0.01 cent tax in order to pay for a new, state of the art arena, remember that feeling. Remember what it feels like to have Oklahomans cheering for the same team, not divided by crimson and orange. Remember what it’s like to have Oklahomans coming together to enjoy something like the Thunder, instead of coming together in tragedy. This is what the MAPS program has created. And this is what can continue if the vote is YES on Tuesday, December 12th. Go vote! and vote YES!
This is the first of four meetings this season between these Northwest Division rivals.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -12.5
O/U: 234.5
Injury Report
OKC
Lu Dort (ankle) – OUT
UTA
John Collins (illness) – Questionable
Walker Kessler (foot) – OUT
Lauri Markkanen (hamstring) – OUT
Three Big Things
Rebounding – Utah is one of the best rebounding teams in the league, especially on the offensive end. While I know that two of their bigs are out, rebounding is still that much of an issue for OKC that I feel it needs to be addressed. Utah is down two of their best players in Kessler and Markkanen. They don’t need any motivation/incentive to remain in striking distance in this game. Offensive rebounding could give them that.
Turning them over – The Jazz are the fumbliest team in the league, leading the NBA in total turnovers and turnover percentage. Consequently, the Thunder are one of the best defenses and can turn defense to offense on a dime. It’s not that difficult. If both teams play their games, the Thunder will be more advantageous.
Trap game potential – Great win at home the previous game. Some players a little banged up (SGA, Dort). Utah kinda sucks. This has trap-game written all over it.
Oklahoma City General Manager Sam Presti (left) and Vice President of Basketball Operations Will Dawkins (right) meet with the media after the 2022 NBA Draft. (Credit: Alex Roig)
The Oklahoma City Thunder did something in this past draft that they haven’t done since they started this rebuild in 2019. Instead of acquiring more future first round picks, they consolidated a couple of picks from their asset chest in order to move up to take the prospect they wanted. In this case, the prospect was Ousmane Dieng. And the cost was three future first round picks. All three of the picks the Thunder gave up were heavily protected (lottery or more) for the 2023 NBA Draft, and those protections stretched out for the next 2-5 years. In essence, the Thunder traded the three worst first round assets they had for a player they really wanted.
In all, the Thunder have 13 possible first round picks over the next five drafts (2023-2027). Some of those picks will have value as draft picks and some of them will have value as trade bait. But every first round pick the Thunder have will have some sort of valuation, which is big to Thunder GM Sam Presti. When the Thunder traded the 16th pick in the 2021 NBA Draft to the Houston Rockets for two future firsts, many questioned if Presti was getting a little too asset-collection happy. After that draft, Presti was asked about trading what turned out to be Alperen Sengun for two future firsts. “It was just, it was a valuation of the asset and I think over time, weβll be able to figure out different ways to utilize those. Thereβs really nothing more to it than that. It was just way above the line for the general value of that pick, and weβre going to probably make that decision most of the time.β
In this article, I wanted to look at the value of the 13 first round picks the Thunder have over the next five drafts. With that said, this is going to be perceived valuation based on the normal cycle teams go through in the NBA. I don’t have a crystal ball and can’t foresee things like injuries and future signings. These valuations are based on the current premise of the teams involved and the general evolution of what happens to teams in these positions. Without further ado, here are the values of the Thunder’s 13 future first round picks from least valuable to most valuable.
No. 13 – OKC’s 2027 first round pick
No. 12 – OKC’s 2026 first round pick
I put these two picks together because I think they hold the least amount of value to teams looking to deal with the Thunder. The Thunder will continue to add young talent to this team over the next few drafts. Also, as OKC gets better, they will likely add valuable veterans to the team via trade or (I can’t believe I’m saying this) free agency. As the collective talent on the team goes up, so will the wins. And as the wins increase, the draft position will also weaken. The Thunder will likely start to be good in 2024. But they will likely start to be great around 2026 or 2027. Hence, their draft picks will not be of much value to other teams.
No. 11 – Houston’s 2026 first round pick (Top-4 protected in ’26. Converts into a ’26 2nd rounder if it isn’t conveyed)
While Golden State, Boston, Milwaukee, and Los Angeles battle for league supremacy, OKC, Houston, Detroit, and Orlando are currently battling for draft position. Houston and OKC started their rebuilds around the same time. As Houston also continues to stack talent via the draft, their trajectory is likely to be very similar to OKC’s. For that reason, their 2026 pick is likely to be later in the first round than early in the first round.
No. 10 – Los Angeles Clippers’ 2024 first round pick (Unprotected)
If you think it’s crazy that an unprotected pick is only No. 10 on this list, I don’t blame you. Hell, I initially had this as the least valuable pick in the Thunder’s asset chest. But the pick being unprotected kind of forced me to move it down a couple spots. The reason I hesitate on giving this pick too much value is because the Clippers (sans injuries) are likely to be awesome over the next season or two. Like, “best record in the NBA” awesome. Like, “pick in the late 20’s or worse” awesome. Even with Kawhi Leonard out for the season and Paul George out for most of the season, the Clippers still found themselves in the midst of the play-in tournament. With those two back in tow and a point guard tandem of Reggie Jackson and Paul Wall, the Clippers could be real good when this pick is ready to convey.
No. 9 – Miami’s 2025 first round pick (Lottery protected for ’25. If not conveyed in ’25, it will be unprotected for ’26)
I really debated on where to put this pick due to the unprotected nature of it in it’s 2nd year. But Miami has three things going for it: two of their stars are young (Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro), they are a well run organization from top to bottom, and Miami is a prime free agent destination. Based on those three things, I don’t think the Heat will bottom out any time soon.
No. 8 – Philadelphia’s 2025 first round pick (Top-6 protected in ’25. Top-4 protected in ’26 & ’27. If not conveyed by ’27, it converts into a ’27 second rounder)
No. 7 – Utah’s 2024 first round pick (Top-10 protected in ’24 & ’25. Top-8 protected in ’26. If it doesn’t convey by ’26, OKC will receive $890K in cash)
I put these two picks together because these two teams a very close to being in turmoil over the next couple of seasons. For as great as Joel Embiid has been in his career, he’s never made it to a conference finals. Add to the mix, James Harden, who isn’t really known as a bastion of team chemistry, and the Sixers are a disappointing season or two away from being in complete flux. In addition, Embiid’s possible shelf life as a large human being who has had foot issues in the past could rear it’s ugly head in the near future.
The Utah Jazz seem to be the basketball version of the guy who peaked in high school. When the Jazz made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs in Donovan Mitchell’s rookie season, everyone thought that was just the beginning. Fast forward four seasons later and the Jazz still haven’t made it out of the 2nd round of the playoffs, their salary sheet is bloated, and their starting center shut down the world for two years (and now resides in Minnesota). Quin Snyder stepped down this offseason and Mitchell said aloud that he doesn’t know where he goes from here. The hope for Thunder fans is that the Jazz go the Portland route and try to use the picks they obtained in the Gobert deal to build around Mitchell for the next couple of seasons.
No. 6 – OKC’s 2025 first round pick
As mentioned in the explanation for OKC’s 2026 and 2027 picks, the Thunder could be well into their upward trajectory in 2025. They are likely to not be as good in 2025 as they are in ’26 and ’27, but they will likely be “playoff” good. This will be Josh Giddey and Tre Mann’s fourth season and Chet Holgrem, Jalen Williams, and Dieng’s third season. If the jump in their games were to happen, it would likely coincide with the 2024-25 season. But why would this pick be so valuable? The Thunder have the option to swap their pick with either the Clippers (unprotected) or the Rockets (Top-10 protected). If the Clippers hit an injury bug or if the Rockets aren’t progressing in their rebuild as quickly as the Thunder, the Thunder could end up with a better pick than their record suggests.
No. 5 – Denver’s 2027 first round pick (Top-5 protected for ’27 – ’29. Converts to a ’29 2nd rounder if it hasn’t conveyed by then)
Great teams usually have a shelf life of 3-5 years. Denver will be heading into Year 3 of their current situation. Injuries to Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. completely derailed last season, but Nikola Jokic still found ways to dominate on his way to his 2nd consecutive MVP award. But with their financial flexibility capped out and injury concerns for two of their three stars moving forward, this pick may be conveying around the time this team’s shelf life may be coming to end (if not already there by then).
No. 4 – OKC’s 2024 first round pick
No. 3 – Houston’s 2024 first round pick (Top-4 protected. If it isn’t conveyed, the Thunder would get Houston’s 2nd rounder in ’24 & ’25)
I lumped these two picks together because so much of their value is going to depend on what happens in the 2023 NBA Draft. If either of these teams lucks into Victor Wembanyama, their outlook changes immensely.
No. 2 – Los Angeles Clippers’ 2026 first round pick (Unprotected)
There’s a possibility the Clippers could still be good after the ’25-’26 season. But there’s also a high possibility that four more seasons of wear and tear will have had their effect on Leonard and George, along with the Clippers’ bloated cap sheet and lack of assets, to lead them into a slow decline that culminates in a great pick in this draft.
