There is, of course, an obvious connection to the Play-In Tournament and the Oklahoma City Thunder. As the No.1 seed in the Western Conference, the Thunder will face the winner of the second Western Conference play-in game that will take place on Friday, April 17th. One of the Trailblazers, the Suns, the Clippers, or the Warriors will be the first step in the Thunder’s quest to be the first repeat champion in eight seasons. A collection of teams the Thunder went a combined 13-3 against.
But Oklahoma City may have ulterior motives in their viewership of the Play-In Tournament. Depending on how things shake out, OKC has the possibility of netting up to two lottery picks in what is considered by many to be a stacked 2026 NBA Draft. They own an unprotected Clippers’ first round pick from the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander deal. Yes, seven years later, that deal is still the gift that keeps on giving. They also own a top-4 protected first round pick from the Philadelphia 76ers. That pick came via the trade that sent Al Horford to Philly at the beginning of the Thunder’s rebuild in 2020. For a team that just finished with the best record in the league and is a championship contender, getting even one lottery pick in a draft like this is a nightmare for the rest of the association.
What’s even scarier, is that something like this already happened to the Thunder a couple of years ago. In the 2022 Play-In Tournament, the Clippers came into that as the 8th seed. In the 7/8 game, they went on the road and played the Minnesota Timberwolves. They ended up losing that game, 109-104, as Patrick Beverly celebrated in front of the Minnesota crowd like he had won the MVP, Finals, Finals MVP, and a billion dollar lottery all in one felled swoop. The loss didn’t eliminate the Clippers, though. In the second play-in game, the Clippers hosted the winners of the 9/10 game, the New Orleans Pelicans. Before the game though, Clippers star Paul George tested positive for Covid-19 and had to sit out that game. The Clippers, now missing both George and Kawhi Leonard, put up a spirited fight, even going up by 10 entering the fourth quarter, but ultimately lost the game down the stretch, 105-101. That loss knocked them out of the playoffs and into the lottery. It was already known that the Thunder would get the Clippers pick regardless of where it landed (remember, the gift that keeps on giving). But now, the Thunder had, not just one, but now two picks in the lottery of the 2022 Draft.
We all know what happened after that. The Thunder luckily jumped up in the lottery and got the 2nd pick. The Clippers’ pick landed at 12. Chet Holmgren was picked by the Thunder with the 2nd pick. And with the Clippers’ pick (WTTP, if you know, you know), the Thunder drafted a draft combine rising star from the University of Santa Clara by the name of Jalen Williams. And the rest, as we know, is history. Williams became an All-Star and All-NBA player by his third season and helped the Thunder win their first championship in Oklahoma City. All because a team lost twice in the Play-In Tournament.
Can it happen again? Maybe. Maybe not. Single game results can be so varied. Things like home-court advantage may not necessarily matter in this type of setting. But to have the opportunity to get, not just one, but two lottery picks in a draft like this is crazy. The Thunder brass will definitely be locked into the Play-In Tournament. Not just for the purposes of scouting their possible first round opponent, but also for the purposes of seeing where their picks are going to land. The way you keep a dynasty rolling is by resupplying with talent from the draft. Rookies are usually cheaper than more established players. With the Thunder definitely going head first into the tax and possibly into the second apron next season, having the ability to draft top-tier (cheaper) talent is tantamount to their ability to continue contending. OKC will need Philadelphia to lose twice and the Clippers to lose once. It’s happened once already. Is it in the cards to happen again? I don’t know, but we’ll definitely be watching.
Current Streaks: LAC: Winners of their last 2 and 5 of their last 7 previous to that / OKC: Winners of 6 in a row
Magic Number (to clinch the No. 1 seed throughout the playoffs): 1
The Tip-Off
There’s a narrative out there that the regular season doesn’t matter. But for the Thunder, this is what you work so hard in the regular season for. The Thunder don’t win the title last season if they don’t play two Game 7’s in the friendly confines of the Paycom Center. Securing home court advantage throughout the playoffs is of the utmost importance for a team that, for all intents and purposes, is still extremely young. This team has never experienced a Game 7 on the road. Getting that first game and the possibility of that 7th game of the series in Oklahoma City has to have such a calming effect on a team like OKC.
This is the third and final regular season meeting between the Thunder and Clippers. The Thunder have won the first two games by an average of 20 points.
Rebounding – There aren’t many nights where the Thunder can come into the game and expect rebounding superiority. The Clippers rank 29th in offensive rebounding, 24th in defensive rebounding, and 29 in total rebounding per game. But there may be a reason why their rebounding numbers are so low…
Perimeter Defense – The Clippers are one of those weird teams that are highly efficient in terms of shot-making, but rank near the bottom in shot attempts. They are 3rd in FG% at 50% per game, but rank last in FG attempts per game. It’s very similar from deep. They rank 7th in 3pt FG%, but rank 23rd in 3pt FG attempts per game. And it’s not like they are dominating in the paint, as they rank 17th in points in the paint per game. So what is the reason why the Clippers shoot so few attempts?
Pace – The reason they don’t shoot many attempts is because they are one of the slowest teams in the league in terms of pace. They rank 28th in Pace over the entire season and 22nd since the All-Star Break. I differentiated the two because it is expected with older stars like Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac, and James Harden, that the pace would be slower. But the pace hasn’t increased that much since they picked up Darius Garland and Benedict Mathurin during the trade deadline. If the Thunder can turn the Clippers over and play in transition, it would be more in line with the OKC’s style of play than LA’s.
It’s taken a while. But we can finally start to compare the effects of the trade that occurred in the wee hours of July 6th, 2019. The day most Thunder fans woke up to tons of text messages from their Thunder-obsessed friends and a Twitter timeline that was in shambles. For Thunder fans, we knew what awaited us. A complete and total rebuild. For the Clippers, it was redemption for all those years of being seen as the Lakers’ little brother. Fast forward four years later, and the seeds that were planted during that trade are now starting to bear fruit.
The Thunder find themselves in the 2nd spot in the West, with one of the brightest futures imaginable for a team. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has blossomed into a top-5 player in the league, Chet Holmgren has been an immediate-impact “rookie”, and Jalen Williams (acquired via a Clippers pick) has all the makings of a third star. Even though injuries have derailed the Clippers’ chances at a title the last three seasons, they are in prime position to make a run this season with the additions of James Harden and Russell Westbrook and the newfound health of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. As big of a trade as this was four years ago, it appears both teams are in position to succeed because of it…as of now. Remember, the Thunder still control the Clippers’ picks for the next four drafts and the Clippers will only get older from here.
This is the first of three meetings between the Thunder and Clippers. They also meet on January 16th, 2024 and February 22nd, 2024.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -4.5
O/U: 233.5
Injury Report
OKC
None
LAC
Paul George (illness) – Questionable
Kawhi Leonard (hip) – Questionable
Mason Plumlee (knee) – OUT
Three Big Things
SGA – There is definitely an “I’ll show you” feeling whenever SGA faces the Clippers. The star guard started his career with the Clips, playing his rookie season in Los Angeles. As we all know, he was shipped off to the Thunder with a bevy of picks for Paul George in the offseason. Since the trade, the Thunder are 5-7 against the Clippers, but have won four of their last 5. In those 12 games, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 24 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.3 assists on 51/46/98 shooting splits. This also includes a ridiculous game winner in 2021.
Streaking – Since December 1st, the Clippers are one of the top teams in the NBA per most metrics. They’ve won every game since the month turned and are 2nd in the NBA in Offensive Rating and Net Rating during that time. The chemistry between Harden, Leonard, and George is starting to coalesce and Leonard is starting to play like the Leonard of San Antonio and Toronto lore. In addition, since Russell Westbrook removed himself from the starting lineup, the Clippers have gone 13-3 and the bench has been more impactful.
Russ – Russell Westbrook is in the sun-setting phase of his career. He is 16 years in and considering how he plays, his body has performed admirably. But the signs are starting to show and energizer bunny that once was, only makes an appearance once every couple of games. That’s not to say he still isn’t a good player, but he isn’t the player that we remember. As he makes another visit to OKC, let us appreciate everything Westbrook has done for OKC hoops. He stuck with us in the toughest of times and helped bridge the gap between the last Thunder “dynasty” and this current iteration. So, here’s to Russell. Give him his flowers while he still has an NBA contract and is contributing to a good team.
Oklahoma City General Manager Sam Presti (left) and Vice President of Basketball Operations Will Dawkins (right) meet with the media after the 2022 NBA Draft. (Credit: Alex Roig)
The Oklahoma City Thunder did something in this past draft that they haven’t done since they started this rebuild in 2019. Instead of acquiring more future first round picks, they consolidated a couple of picks from their asset chest in order to move up to take the prospect they wanted. In this case, the prospect was Ousmane Dieng. And the cost was three future first round picks. All three of the picks the Thunder gave up were heavily protected (lottery or more) for the 2023 NBA Draft, and those protections stretched out for the next 2-5 years. In essence, the Thunder traded the three worst first round assets they had for a player they really wanted.
In all, the Thunder have 13 possible first round picks over the next five drafts (2023-2027). Some of those picks will have value as draft picks and some of them will have value as trade bait. But every first round pick the Thunder have will have some sort of valuation, which is big to Thunder GM Sam Presti. When the Thunder traded the 16th pick in the 2021 NBA Draft to the Houston Rockets for two future firsts, many questioned if Presti was getting a little too asset-collection happy. After that draft, Presti was asked about trading what turned out to be Alperen Sengun for two future firsts. “It was just, it was a valuation of the asset and I think over time, we’ll be able to figure out different ways to utilize those. There’s really nothing more to it than that. It was just way above the line for the general value of that pick, and we’re going to probably make that decision most of the time.”
In this article, I wanted to look at the value of the 13 first round picks the Thunder have over the next five drafts. With that said, this is going to be perceived valuation based on the normal cycle teams go through in the NBA. I don’t have a crystal ball and can’t foresee things like injuries and future signings. These valuations are based on the current premise of the teams involved and the general evolution of what happens to teams in these positions. Without further ado, here are the values of the Thunder’s 13 future first round picks from least valuable to most valuable.
No. 13 – OKC’s 2027 first round pick
No. 12 – OKC’s 2026 first round pick
I put these two picks together because I think they hold the least amount of value to teams looking to deal with the Thunder. The Thunder will continue to add young talent to this team over the next few drafts. Also, as OKC gets better, they will likely add valuable veterans to the team via trade or (I can’t believe I’m saying this) free agency. As the collective talent on the team goes up, so will the wins. And as the wins increase, the draft position will also weaken. The Thunder will likely start to be good in 2024. But they will likely start to be great around 2026 or 2027. Hence, their draft picks will not be of much value to other teams.
No. 11 – Houston’s 2026 first round pick (Top-4 protected in ’26. Converts into a ’26 2nd rounder if it isn’t conveyed)
While Golden State, Boston, Milwaukee, and Los Angeles battle for league supremacy, OKC, Houston, Detroit, and Orlando are currently battling for draft position. Houston and OKC started their rebuilds around the same time. As Houston also continues to stack talent via the draft, their trajectory is likely to be very similar to OKC’s. For that reason, their 2026 pick is likely to be later in the first round than early in the first round.
No. 10 – Los Angeles Clippers’ 2024 first round pick (Unprotected)
If you think it’s crazy that an unprotected pick is only No. 10 on this list, I don’t blame you. Hell, I initially had this as the least valuable pick in the Thunder’s asset chest. But the pick being unprotected kind of forced me to move it down a couple spots. The reason I hesitate on giving this pick too much value is because the Clippers (sans injuries) are likely to be awesome over the next season or two. Like, “best record in the NBA” awesome. Like, “pick in the late 20’s or worse” awesome. Even with Kawhi Leonard out for the season and Paul George out for most of the season, the Clippers still found themselves in the midst of the play-in tournament. With those two back in tow and a point guard tandem of Reggie Jackson and Paul Wall, the Clippers could be real good when this pick is ready to convey.
No. 9 – Miami’s 2025 first round pick (Lottery protected for ’25. If not conveyed in ’25, it will be unprotected for ’26)
I really debated on where to put this pick due to the unprotected nature of it in it’s 2nd year. But Miami has three things going for it: two of their stars are young (Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro), they are a well run organization from top to bottom, and Miami is a prime free agent destination. Based on those three things, I don’t think the Heat will bottom out any time soon.
No. 8 – Philadelphia’s 2025 first round pick (Top-6 protected in ’25. Top-4 protected in ’26 & ’27. If not conveyed by ’27, it converts into a ’27 second rounder)
No. 7 – Utah’s 2024 first round pick (Top-10 protected in ’24 & ’25. Top-8 protected in ’26. If it doesn’t convey by ’26, OKC will receive $890K in cash)
I put these two picks together because these two teams a very close to being in turmoil over the next couple of seasons. For as great as Joel Embiid has been in his career, he’s never made it to a conference finals. Add to the mix, James Harden, who isn’t really known as a bastion of team chemistry, and the Sixers are a disappointing season or two away from being in complete flux. In addition, Embiid’s possible shelf life as a large human being who has had foot issues in the past could rear it’s ugly head in the near future.
The Utah Jazz seem to be the basketball version of the guy who peaked in high school. When the Jazz made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs in Donovan Mitchell’s rookie season, everyone thought that was just the beginning. Fast forward four seasons later and the Jazz still haven’t made it out of the 2nd round of the playoffs, their salary sheet is bloated, and their starting center shut down the world for two years (and now resides in Minnesota). Quin Snyder stepped down this offseason and Mitchell said aloud that he doesn’t know where he goes from here. The hope for Thunder fans is that the Jazz go the Portland route and try to use the picks they obtained in the Gobert deal to build around Mitchell for the next couple of seasons.
No. 6 – OKC’s 2025 first round pick
As mentioned in the explanation for OKC’s 2026 and 2027 picks, the Thunder could be well into their upward trajectory in 2025. They are likely to not be as good in 2025 as they are in ’26 and ’27, but they will likely be “playoff” good. This will be Josh Giddey and Tre Mann’s fourth season and Chet Holgrem, Jalen Williams, and Dieng’s third season. If the jump in their games were to happen, it would likely coincide with the 2024-25 season. But why would this pick be so valuable? The Thunder have the option to swap their pick with either the Clippers (unprotected) or the Rockets (Top-10 protected). If the Clippers hit an injury bug or if the Rockets aren’t progressing in their rebuild as quickly as the Thunder, the Thunder could end up with a better pick than their record suggests.
No. 5 – Denver’s 2027 first round pick (Top-5 protected for ’27 – ’29. Converts to a ’29 2nd rounder if it hasn’t conveyed by then)
Great teams usually have a shelf life of 3-5 years. Denver will be heading into Year 3 of their current situation. Injuries to Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. completely derailed last season, but Nikola Jokic still found ways to dominate on his way to his 2nd consecutive MVP award. But with their financial flexibility capped out and injury concerns for two of their three stars moving forward, this pick may be conveying around the time this team’s shelf life may be coming to end (if not already there by then).
No. 4 – OKC’s 2024 first round pick
No. 3 – Houston’s 2024 first round pick (Top-4 protected. If it isn’t conveyed, the Thunder would get Houston’s 2nd rounder in ’24 & ’25)
I lumped these two picks together because so much of their value is going to depend on what happens in the 2023 NBA Draft. If either of these teams lucks into Victor Wembanyama, their outlook changes immensely.
No. 2 – Los Angeles Clippers’ 2026 first round pick (Unprotected)
There’s a possibility the Clippers could still be good after the ’25-’26 season. But there’s also a high possibility that four more seasons of wear and tear will have had their effect on Leonard and George, along with the Clippers’ bloated cap sheet and lack of assets, to lead them into a slow decline that culminates in a great pick in this draft.
Lawrence George (Thunderous Intentions) looks at three things Dennis Schröder brings to the Thunder: “However, the OKC Thunder have taken risks on restoring players reputations (insert Dion Waiters and Enes Kanter) before, thus Schroder certainly fits the mold. He’s had his fair share of off-court problems in Atlanta (clashing with coaching, fellow players and a pending court case) but Schroder holds tremendous value for the Thunder.”
On Episode 38 of the NTTB podcast, we discuss the following topics:
Carmelo Anthony trade for Dennis Schröder and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot
A thank you to Melo
Introduction to Dennis Schröder and Timothe Luwawu-Caborrot
Grading the trade
Dakari Johnson trade
A look at the Thunder roster and future moves
Kawhi Leonard trade
Untradeable Contracts
Intro/Outro music provided by OSC Productions
Thank you for listening. We will be doing a podcast once a week. If you have any Thunder or NBA related questions, make sure you hit us up on Twitter (@alexroig_NTTB or @Montero_A13).
We are on ITunes, Google Play, Stitcher, Spotify, and Tune In under the NTTB Podcast. Make sure you leave us a 5-star review if you can. As always, Thunder Up!
Tamberlyn Richardson (Thunderous Intentions) with some takeaways from the Melo trade: “Despite adding two players to the roster (arguably upgrades) OKC will also save $73 million. Additionally, OKC shave their luxury tax hit from $150 million to $88.8 million, a $62 million savings in 2018-19. This could be reduced even further dependent on whether OKC make additional moves. Of note, teams final luxury tax is calculated based on where the team resides with player salaries on last day of season.” Continue reading →
On Episode 37 of the NTTB podcast, we discuss the following topics:
The Carmelo Anthony saga continues
Teams with cap space are running out
Summer League Recap
W vs. Toronto and Orlando and L vs. Memphis
Looking at the summer league rotation
Abrines got married
NBA News
Intro/Outro music provided by OSC Productions
Thank you for listening. We will be doing a podcast once a week. If you have any Thunder or NBA related questions, make sure you hit us up on Twitter (@alexroig_NTTB or @Montero_A13).
We are on ITunes, Google Play, Stitcher, Spotify, and Tune In under the NTTB Podcast. Make sure you leave us a 5-star review if you can. As always, Thunder Up!
On Episode 33 of the NTTB podcast, we’re joined by friend of the pod, Ryan Rivera, to discuss the following topics:
The Aftermath of the Finals
LeBron vs. MJ
The Impact of JR Smith’s flub
Kawhi Leonard wants out of San Antonio
Where do the Thunder go if Paul George does not re-sign
Can you win with Westbrook as your No. 1
Some draft talk
Host Q and A’s
Intro/Outro music provided by OSC Productions
Thank you for listening. We will be doing a podcast once a week. If you have any Thunder or NBA related questions, make sure you hit us up on Twitter (@alexroig_NTTB or @Montero_A13).
We are on ITunes, Google Play, Stitcher, Spotify, and Tune In under the NTTB Podcast. Make sure you leave us a 5-star review if you can. As always, Thunder Up!
Nick Gallo (OKCThunder.com) on what needs to continue into Game 2: “One of the major bright spots for the Thunder on Sunday, and a development that needs to hold firm, was the play of Anthony on the defensive end and around the rim. After an early adjustment to drop the veteran forward into coverage on pick and rolls, Anthony was able to use his quickness and sleight of hand to make 3 steals and 2 blocks to go with 7 rebounds. On many occasions, Anthony was the last line of defense between the Jazz and a potential layup or a put back, and he held firm with toughness and veteran guile.”
Brad Rock (Desert News) on the Thunder being what the Jazz want to be one day: “So here we go with the country-speak: The Oklahoma City Thunder are what the Utah Jazz want to be when they’re all growed up. Trailing 1-0 in their best-of-seven series, the Jazz aren’t conceding anything. It’s just that OKC is what the Jazz want to be, i.e., a seriously strong team in a relatively underrated city.” Continue reading →
On Episode 38 of the NTTB podcast, we discuss the following topics:
On Episode 37 of the NTTB podcast, we discuss the following topics:
On Episode 33 of the NTTB podcast, we’re joined by friend of the pod, Ryan Rivera, to discuss the following topics: