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The Oklahoma City Thunder tank conundrum: The difference between 14 and 18

Posted on April 9, 2015 by Alex Roig

With Tuesday’s loss to the San Antonio Spurs (and New Orleans’ subsequent defeat of the Golden State Warriors), the Oklahoma City Thunder found themselves in a position they hadn’t been for the past month: outside the top 8 in the Western Conference. With only four games left and with New Orleans holding the tie-breaker between themselves and OKC, the likelihood of the Thunder missing the playoffs has become a very real possibility.

The 8th spot in the Western Conference is almost guaranteed to get the 18th pick in the draft, while the 9th spot in the Western Conference is slotted to be the 14th pick in the lottery, as they would hold the best record of all the non-playoff teams. The 14th worst team in the league has a 0.5% of getting the 1st pick, a 0.6% chance of getting the 2nd pick, and a 0.7% chance of getting the 3rd pick. The team that picks in the 14th spot has never won the draft lottery a.k.a the Number 1 pick. In 1993, the Orlando Magic won the draft lottery with a 1.52% chance of winning it. They had the best record of all the lottery teams and remain the team with the worst odds to ever garner the Number 1 pick. Since then, three more teams have been added to the NBA, so the odds are even lower now.

The possibility of Oklahoma City getting the top pick is damn near slim to none. Same goes for them getting the 2nd or 3rd pick. The question then becomes what’s more important for a championship contending team that has been saddled with bad luck: a higher draft pick or postseason experience for their playoff neophytes? More simply, is there a discernible difference between the 14th pick and the 18th pick?

Looking back at the last five drafts, those five draft spots are extremely important for getting good role players, with the possibility of getting a lower tier superstar. The top three players that have been chosen in those spots in the past 5 yeas have been Kawhi Leonard, Eric Bledsoe, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Other players of high value include Nikola Vucevic, Dennis Schroder, Terrance Jones, Marcus Morris, and Jusuf Nurkic. Of all those players, only Marcus Morris was chosen with the 14th pick. Meanwhile, Terrance Jones and Eric Bledsoe were both chosen with the 18th pick.

From the numbers, there are no discernible differences between the 14th pick and the 18th pick. Without all the injuries, the Thunder are a championship contending team. If the team is able to keep Enes Kanter in the offseason, their needs will be peripheral at best. If the team is able to draft the mythical creature known as a 2-way shooting guard, then great. We’ve all seen grainy videos of two-way shooting guards that can shoot from the perimeter and defend their position well. According to lore, they still exist. Another need that could be addressed in the draft is another good shooter. Other than those two things, health is probably the only thing the Thunder need for next season.

Well, health and more playoff experience. Some of the remaining Thunder players that have survived the triage-apocalypse that has been this season, have never been featured players on playoff teams. Dion Waiters, Kyle Singler, and Mitch McGary have never been to the postseason, and Enes Kanter made it to the playoffs in his rookie season with the Utah Jazz, but didn’t play many meaningful minutes as the San Antonio Spurs swept the Jazz in what was a lopsided first round series. The experience earned, even at the hands of a sweep by the Golden State Warriors, will be irreplaceable come this time next season.

Think back to when the Thunder first played the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers in the 2010 postseason. Oklahoma City lost the series in 6 games, but the experience earned in that series fueled their next four postseason runs. The Thunder have a new set of players that have replaced some seasoned vets the Thunder had in their previous postseason runs (Kendrick Perkins, Reggie Jackson, Derek Fisher). Those new players need to experience what playoff basketball, at its highest, it like. I’d rather they earn that experience now, than have to earn it next season when the Thunder hopefully are chasing a title and the stakes are a lot higher.

The Thunder are in a position to get the best of both worlds: a solid first round pick and playoff experience. Is there risk for injury if the Thunder make the playoffs? Of course. But there’s a risk of injury any time any of these players gets on a basketball court, whether its in an NBA game or an offseason workout. Missing the playoffs on purpose makes no sense whatsoever, especially when there is only a 0.18% chance of obtaining a top-3 pick. Plus, there’s no way Russell Westbrook will ever stand by and allow the team to lose on purpose. The Thunder will try their hardest in these last four games, and will allow the chips to fall wherever they may fall.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder preview (Game 78 of 82)

Posted on April 7, 2015 by Alex Roig

When: Tuesday, 07 April 2015 at 7:00 PM CST
Where: Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, OK

It’s never a do or die game until you are certainly facing elimination with a loss. But this game certainly has the feeling of being a ‘win or go home’ type scenario. After holding a 2.5 game lead over the New Orleans Pelicans just over two weeks ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder have gone on to lose 5 of their last 6 games. Luckily for the Thunder, the Pelicans had their own bad stretch heading into these last two weeks and still find themselves a half game out with a murderer’s row of opponents coming up (Golden State – chasing history, Houston and Memphis – chasing the 2 seed, Phoenix – likely hellbent on being a playoff spoiler). After tonight’s game, three of the Thunder’s last four opponents are all under .500. A win tonight, and the Thunder will likely find themselves 1.5 games up on the Pelicans with four to play.

This is the third and final meeting of the season between these two rivals. The previous two games were played in San Antonio, with the Thunder taking the Christmas match-up, and the Spurs throttling the Thunder nearly two weeks ago. These teams are used to battling it out for Western Conference supremacy, but now find themselves near the bottom of the playoff rankings this season. Nevertheless, this game is fraught with narratives and will have an impact on the playoff picture moving forward.

The Opponent

The San Antonio Spurs are currently 51-26, sitting in the 6th spot in the Western Conference. They sit just 2 games back of the Houston Rockets who currently have the No. 2 seed in the West. I’ve learned that there are three guarantees in life: death, taxes, and game of ‘possum the Spurs play every regular season where it seems like they may finally be running out of steam, only to have them Lazarus their season after the All Star break. On February 25th, after a loss to the Portland Trailblazers, the Spurs found themselves at 34-23. Since then, the Spurs have gone 17-3 and the machine appears to be well-oiled once again. The Spurs attack is fueled by the rejuvenated Tony Parker, who appears to be back to his normal self after struggling with injuries and inconsistencies in the first half of the season. Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard are back to being one of the most dangerous sets of wings in the league. Up front, Tim Duncan is still a double/double threat and does of great job of positioning himself in the correct spot most times down the floor. Tiago Splitter will sit this game out with an injured calf, so look for Boris Diaw or Matt Bonner to get the nod at “center”. Off the bench, Manu Ginobili, Patty Mills, Marco Belinelli, Aron Baynes, and Cory Joseph are all seasoned vets who have played in big moments in the past few seasons.

Probable Starting Line-Ups

San Antonio Spurs

PG – Tony Parker
SG – Danny Green
SF – Kawhi Leonard
PF – Matt Bonner
C – Tim Duncan

Oklahoma City Thunder

PG – Russell Westbrook
SG – Dion Waiters
SF – Kyle Singler
PF – Enes Kanter
C – Steven Adams

Andre Roberson went through parts of practice on Monday, and may be available for this game.

Three Things

1. Small Ball – With Splitter out, the Spurs will definitely be featuring either Bonner or Diaw as a stretch 4, to negate the Thunder’s size inside. The good thing is the Thunder can counter with a very efficient small ball line-up of their own, with Morrow and Singler playing the forward spots.

2. Steven Adams – Adams has got to stay away from getting into the foul trouble. With the Thunder lack of big man depth, Adams has to find a way to stop picking up ticky-tack fouls. I understand when he’s trying to stop someone from getting a basket on their way to the rim. But Adams has to get at least 2-3 loose ball fouls a game on rebound attempts. Cut those in half, and the foul trouble goes away.

3. Late game execution – The Thunder’s last four losses have been by a grand total of 15 points, combined. That’s an average margin of defeat of 3.75 points per game. You make an extra 3-pointer and an extra free throw, and that’s a victory in some of those games. These games are coming down to the decisions in the final few minutes of the game. Without Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, and Nick Collison in the closing line-up, the Thunder are having to depend on players that may not be used to the pressures associated with playoff-intensity type basketball. With the onus squarely on the chiseled shoulders of Westbrook, the inexperience of the other players in these situations is started to manifest itself in the form of close losses. Moral victories are still losses in the standings.

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs preview (Game 72 of 82)

Posted on March 25, 2015 by Alex Roig

When: Wednesday, 25 March 2015 at 8:30 PM CST
Where: AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX

This has usually been the case in the past four seasons. As the Oklahoma City Thunder approach the end of the season, they usually look up in the standings and see the San Antonio Spurs. And, usually, the NBA is gracious enough to schedule about two OKC vs San Antonio games in the last three weeks of the season. The big difference this season as compared to previous seasons is that the Thunder are the 8th seed and are looking up at the Spurs, who are currently the 6th seed, but only by virtue of percentage points over the Dallas Mavericks. The Spurs have one of the tougher finishing schedules in the league and stand 3.5 games ahead of the Thunder. The 7th and 8th seed in the West may be in contention by these two familiar rivals that are used to battling atop the Western Conference standings.

This is the 2nd of 3 meetings this season between these two teams. The Thunder beat the Spurs in their only previous meeting on Christmas day, 114-106. In that game, the Thunder outscored the Spurs by 9 points in the 4th quarter, as Russell Westbrook led the team with 34 points and 11 assists.

The Opponent

The San Antonio Spurs come into the game with a 44-26 record, good for 6th in the Western Conference. As is usually the case every season, the Spurs seem to be getting healthy at the right time. Kawhi Leonard, Patty Mills, Tiago Splitter, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Boris Diaw have all had their injury issues throughout this season. But they are all relatively healthy and rearing up for their yearly playoff run. The Spurs are pretty consistent in their stats, ranking 11th in team scoring (102.4 ppg), 5th in assists (24.2 per game), and 9th in opponent scoring per game (97.9 ppg). The offense is, of course, led by Tony Parker, who has looked a lot more like himself in the past month after struggling with injuries previous to that. On the wing, Danny Green is tied for 7th in the league with 2.4 makes per game on almost 41% shooting from deep. And Kawhi Leonard, a lot like Parker, has started to round into form after struggling with injuries for much of the first half of the season. Up front, Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter continue to be one of the more consistent big men tandems in the league. Off the bench, Patty Mills, Boris Diaw, Marco Belinelli, and Manu Ginobili continue to give the Spurs one of the better benches in the league.

Probable Starting Line-Ups

San Antonio Spurs

PG – Tony Parker
SG – Danny Green
SF – Kawhi Leonard
PF – Tim Duncan
C – Tiago Splitter

Oklahoma City Thunder

PG – Russell Westbrook
SG – Dion Waiters
SF – Kyle Singler
PF – Enes Kanter
C – Steven Adams

Three Things

1. Line-up shuffling – With the Thunder’s new Bruise Bros big man tandem, Spurs’ coach Gregg Popovich may look to exploit the lack of mobility of the big men on the perimeter by inserting Diaw or Matt Bonner into the starting line-up. If Popovich sticks with his regular line-up, this may likely be an advantage for the Thunder.

2. Contain penetration – The biggest facilitator of the Spurs’ offense is the penetrating ability of Tony Parker (insert joke here), Manu Ginobili, and Kawhi Leonard. The havoc those three create from getting into the paint leads to the Spurs’ 3-point shooters getting clean looks and to their big men getting open looks as the defending big men have to slide over to stop the dribble penetration. It will be incredibly important for the Thunder defenders to stay in front of these three players throughout the game.

3. 6th or 7th seed up for grabs – The Thunder’s goals this entire season have been to get healthy and make it to the playoffs. While they are still working on the getting healthy part, they hold the playoff positioning part in their hands. Yes, they will need some help, but the 6th seed is a possibility, which is saying something considering how this season started.

2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Southwest Division

Posted on September 21, 2014 by Alex Roig

Southwest Divison

1. San Antonio Spurs

Last season: 62-20 (1st in the Southwest Division, 1st in the Western Conference)

Season ended: Hoisting the Larry O’Brien trophy after Game 5 of the NBA Finals against the Miami Heat

Key Additions:

Kyle Anderson – Draft (No. 30 in the 2014 NBA Draft)

Key Departures:

Aron Baynes – Unsigned

Season Preview – Everyone keeps waiting for the Spurs to age, but every year, they come back wiser and better. The reigning NBA champs come back with the entire team basically intact. While chemistry won’t be an issue, a couple of the main players are coming back from injury. Manu Ginobili spent most of the offseason nursing a stress fracture in his leg and Patty Mills had rotator cuff surgery that will keep him out half the season. But as is the Spurs, they will turn that into a positive as Mills will be very well rested when the playoffs start next April.

2014-15 will be successful if: The Spurs repeat as champions

Projected 2014-15 Record: 59-23

2. Memphis Grizzlies

Last season: 50-32 (3rd in the Southwest Division, 7th in the Western Conference)

Season ended: Game 7 of the first round of the Western Conference playoffs against the Oklahoma City Thunder

Key Additions:

Jordan Adams – Draft (No. 22 in the 2014 NBA Draft)
Vince Carter – Free agent signing
Jarnell Stokes – Draft (No. 35 in the 2014 NBA Draft)

Key Departures:

Jamaal Franklin – Waived
Ed Davis – Signed with the Los Angeles Lakers
Mike Miller – Signed with the Chicago Bulls
James Johnson – Signed with the Toronto Raptors

Season Preview – The Grizzlies have slowly put together a balanced team that doesn’t entirely depend on the post play of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. The additions of Jordan Adams and Vince Carter, and the return of Quincy Pondexter from injury should help spread the floor for the big man duo to operate a little easier in the interior. Mike Conley remains one of the more underrated floor generals in the league and Tony Allen is still a premier defensive menace, as we saw in last season’s playoff series against Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

2014-15 will be successful if: The Grizzlies make it to the Western Conference Finals

Projected 2014-15 Record: 54-28

3. Dallas Mavericks

Last season: 49-33 (4th in the Southwest Division, 8th in the Western Conference)

Season ended: Game 7 of the first round of the Western Conference playoffs against the San Antonio Spurs

Key Additions:

Al Farouq Aminu – Signed free agent
Tyson Chandler – Obtained in a trade with the New York Knicks
Raymond Felton – Obtained in a trade with the New York Knicks
Richard Jefferson – Signed free agent
Ivan Johnson – Signed free agent
Jameer Nelson – Signed free agent
Chandler Parsons – Signed free agent
Greg Smith – Obtained in a trade with the Chicago Bulls

Key Departures:

Jose Calderon – Traded to the New York Knicks
Shane Larkin – Traded to the New York Knicks
Shawn Marion – Signed with the Cleveland Cavaliers
Samuel Dalembert – Traded to the New York Knicks
Vince Carter – Signed with the Memphis Grizzlies
DeJuan Blair – Sign and traded to the Washington Wizards

Season Preview – Other than the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Mavericks probably had the most player movement of any team in the leauge. The team that took the eventual champs to 7 games in the first round, got their defensive stopper in the lane (Chandler), and got an up-and-coming star in Chandler Parsons. The Mavs should be a little better balanced defensively, but that all depends on the health of Chandler. If he misses a big chunk of the season (15-20+ games), the Mavericks could be in trouble defensively. The point guard position is also a question mark, as each of the three possibilities (Felton, Nelson, and Devin Harris) have been starters in the past, but also have glaring weaknesses.

2014-15 will be successful if: The Mavs make it to the Western Conference Finals

Projected 2014-15 Record: 53-29

4. Houston Rockets

Last season: 54-28 (2nd in the Southwest Division, 4th in the Western Conference)

Season ended: Game 6 of the first round of the Western Conference playoffs against the Portland Trailblazers

Key Additions:

Jeff Adrien – Free agent signing
Trevor Ariza – Free agent signing
Clint Capela – Draft (No. 25 in the 2014 NBA Draft)
Jason Terry – Obtained in a trade with the Sacramento Kings
Joey Dorsey – Free agent signing
Ish Smith – Free agent signing

Key Departures:

Jeremy Lin – Traded to the Los Angeles Lakers
Omer Asik – Traded to the New Orleans Pelicans
Chandler Parsons – Signed with the Dallas Mavericks
Jordan Hamilton – Signed with the Toronto Raptors

Season Preview – After striking gold in the last two offseasons, Rockets GM Daryl Morey hit a rough patch this offseason. He traded away 2 of this team’s top 5 players (Asik and Lin) for basically nothing, and failed to resign Parsons, even though the Rockets held his Bird Rights. The reasons they made these moves was an “all in” attempt at either Carmelo Anthony or Chris Bosh. By the time those two players had re-signed with their respective teams, the damage had already been done to the Rockets’ roster. The Rockets salvaged a little life this offseason by signing Trevor Ariza. The Rockets will still win games due to the talent of James Harden and Dwight Howard. But depth will be an issue, and any injury to any of the major players on the Rockets will be a huge blow to the team’s playoff chances.

2014-15 will be successful if: The Rockets make it to the 2nd round of the playoffs

Projected 2014-15 Record: 47-35

5. New Orleans Pelicans

Last season: 34-48 (5th in the Southwest Division, 12th in the Western Conference)

Season ended: Last day of the regular season

Key Additions:

Omer Asik – Obtained in a trade with the Houston Rockets
Jimmer Fredette – Free agent signing
John Salmons – Free agent signing
Russ Smith – Draft (No. 47 in the 2014 NBA Draft)
Patric Young – Rookie free agent signing (Undrafted)

Key Departures:

Al-Farouq Aminu – Signed with the Dallas Mavericks
Greg Stiemsma – Signed with the Toronto Raptors
Jason Smith – Signed with the New York Knicks
Anthony Morrow – Signed with the Oklahoma City Thunder
Brian Roberts – Signed with the Charlotte Hornets

Season Preview – After a great showing in the FIBA World Cup, Anthony Davis is ready to finally take his team to another level. The acquisition of Asik will allow Davis to play his natural position of power forward. On the outside, Ryan Anderson returns from neck surgery and should help space the floor for Davis and Jrue Holiday to operate. The depth of this team is worrisome, and if the injury bug hits again, they could once again struggle to stay above water.

2014-15 will be succesful if: The Pelican make the playoffs

Projected 2014-15 Record: 42-40

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Western Conference Finals preview

Posted on May 19, 2014 by Alex Roig

A running theme for me these playoffs has been fate. It was fate for us to face the Grizzlies in the first round to exorcise the demons from last season. It was fate for us to face the Clippers in the second round, as they have players that are interwoven into Oklahoma’s history. And again, I believe it is fate for the Thunder to meet the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals.

The Spurs are the model by which the Thunder are built. A sort of big brother, if you will. Many of the main components on the Thunder come from the Spurs organization, from the owner to the GM. Over the past three seasons, the Thunder and Spurs have been the best two teams in the conference and this is something of a rubber match.

Unfortunately, Serge Ibaka won’t be participating in this series. A Grade 2 calf strain will cause the power forward to miss the rest of this postseason. While both teams won’t be at full strength, this has never stopped this series from being competitive and fun.

Regular Season Series

Even since the Thunder did a gentlemen’s sweep of the Spurs in the 2012 Western Conference Finals, the Thunder have dominated the Spurs in the regular season. They’ve won 6 of their last 8 meetings, including all four this season.

In the first meeting of the season, the Thunder ended an 11 game winning streak by the Spurs, upending them 94-88, behind a big third quarter (25-15). In that game, Ibaka (sad face) dominated inside with 17 points, 11 rebounds, and 5 blocks. In the second game, the Thunder used a big game from Russell Westbrook (31 points and 8 assists) and a big 2nd quarter (40-29) to defeat the Spurs 113-100. In the 3rd meeting of the season, the Thunder won 111-105 behind monster games from Kevin Durant (33 pts, 7 rebs, 5 asts) and Reggie Jackson (27 pts and 8 asts). The 4th meeting of the year, also known as the annual “if we win this game we might catch the Spurs in the standings” game, saw good performances by the Thunder’s top 4 players, leading to a 106-94 victory.

Series Schedule

Game 1 – Monday, 19 May 2014 at 8:00 PM CST (AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX)
Game 2 – Wednesday, 21 May 2014 at 8:00 PM CST (AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX)
Game 3 – Sunday, 25 May 2014 at 7:30 PM CST (Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, OK)
Game 4 – Tuesday, 27 May 2014 at 8:00 PM CST (Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, OK)
Game 5 – Thursday, 29 May 2014 at 8:00 PM CST (AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX)*
Game 6 – Saturday, 31 May 2014 at 7:30 PM CST (Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, OK)*
Game 7 – Monday, 02 June 2014 at 8:00 PM CST (AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX)*

* If Necessary

Probable Starting Line-Up

San Antonio Spurs

PG – Tony Parker
SG – Danny Green
SF – Kawhi Leonard
PF – Tim Duncan
C – Tiago Splitter

Bench Depth – Boris Diaw, Patty Mills, Manu Ginobili, Marco Belinelli

Oklahoma City Thunder

PG – Russell Westbrook
SG – Thabo Sefolosha
SF – Kevin Durant
PF – Perry Jones
C – Kendrick Perkins

Bench Depth – Reggie Jackson, Steven Adams, Nick Collison, Caron Butler, Derek Fisher

3 Keys to the Series

1. 75/30 – With Ibaka out, the scoring onus continues to fall on Durant, Westbrook, and Jackson. Ibaka is probably the most consistent scorer in the leauge, always scoring between 13-17 points. To make up for that, the big 3 for the Thunder will probably have to average about 75 points per game, while the other players will have to somehow come up with 30 points. Can it be done? Of course. But the margin of error will go down with the loss of Ibaka.

2. Perimeter Defense – The Spurs have 6 players that are shooting at least 38% from 3-point land in the playoffs, with noted Thunder-killer Ginobili pitching in 31% from deep. The Thunder have had measured success in the defending the 3-point line because they have been able to keep Parker in front of them and out of the lane. Unfortunately, when Parker does get into the lane now, Ibaka will not be there to erase any of the Thunder’s perimeter mistakes.

3. Bench – If ever there was a series for Butler, Fisher, and Jackson to consistently hit shots, this would be it. The Spurs bench is leading the remaining playoff teams in scoring at 41.3 points per game. The Thunder bench averages just under 29 points per game in the playoffs. While the Thunder is top heavy, with 2 of the top 5 scorers in the playoffs, they will still need their bench to spell them during games.

X-factors

For the Spurs – Rebounding – With Ibaka out, the Spurs, not known for their rebounding, will have more opportunity to grab offensive rebounds and get more scoring opportunities. On the other end, the Spurs have the opportunity to limit the Thunder to just one shot.

Another X-factor for the Spurs is the health of Parker’s hamstring. He was taken out of Game 5 of the Portland series and has not practiced with the team. Maybe something to watch as he tries to defend Westbrook throughout the series.

For the Thunder – Transition opportunities – The Thunder do a good job of forcing the Spurs into turnovers. That may be a bit muted now with Ibaka out in the series. Without the shot blocker in the paint, the Thunder have less leeway to gamble on steal opportunities.

Prediction

Spurs in 6

I love my team, but the loss of Ibaka may be too difficult to get over in this series. Ibaka puts a lot of pressure on opposing offenses that live on dribble penetration. The Spurs’ guards would have second thoughts of taking the ball inside with Ibaka patrolling the paint. Now, the defense will have to help out more and that may open up the 3-point shooting for the Spurs. Can the Thunder win it? Of course. But they have to play close to perfect basketball on the defensive end for the full 48 minutes. Unfortunately, that has never been their greatest strength.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder preview (Game 74 of 82)

Posted on April 3, 2014 by Alex Roig

When: Thursday, 03 April 2014 at 7:00 PM CST
Where: Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, OK

Here’s a list of things that have happened since the Thunder last took the court:

The baseball season started and most teams have played at least 3 games.
Chile has been hit by two earthquakes that have measured over 7.5 on the Richter scale.
There was another shooting on Fort Hood.
HIMYM ended.
The Malaysian flight still hasn’t been found.
And the Spurs still haven’t lost a game in over a month.

As the Thunder head into the stretch run of the season, I think they sit pretty comfortably where they currently are. Would they like the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference? Of course. But the Thunder/Spurs dynamic is weird because the Spurs give everyone else fits (yes, even Miami), but we’re just about the team that gives the Spurs fits. It’s almost like we unlocked a cheat code when we beat them four straight games in the 2012 Western Conference Finals. Since that series, the Thunder have won 5 of 7 in the last two seasons, to include going 3 of 3 this season.

The Opponent

The Spurs currently find themselves at 59-16, atop the entire league in terms of record. They haven’t lost a game since February 21st (19 straight) and have been beating opponents by an average of 16.8 ppg during the streak. The streak has coincided with the Spurs getting healthier as the season has progressed. After losing Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, and Tiago Splitter for parts of the season, the Spurs have regrouped and this streak has been the result. The constants this season, as has been the case every season for the past decade have been Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and head coach Gregg Popovich. The Spurs system is predicated on the defense collapsing on penetrators (Parker or Ginobili) or post players (Duncan) and kicking the ball out to a bevy of shooters who all shoot over 37.5% from 3-point territory. The bench is one of the stronger ones in the league with vets like Boris Diaw, Marco Belinelli, Ginobili, and Patty Mills all contributing starter minutes.

Probable Starting Line-Ups

San Antonio Spurs

PG – Tony Parker
SG – Danny Green
SF – Kawhi Leonard
PF – Tim Duncan
C – Tiago Splitter

Oklahoma City Thunder

PG – Russell Westbrook
SG – Andre Roberson
SF – Kevin Durant
PF – Serge Ibaka
C – Steven Adams

3 Keys to the Game

1. Preparedness – There’s a reason the Starting Line-ups section of this preview comes with the word Probable in front of it. When it comes to the regular season, you never know what Gregg Popovich is going to do. Mentally, you have to be prepared for anything. Many teams make the mistake of easing off the gas pedal when they see that Pop is resting a couple starters. The Spurs’ bench players are great in spurts and can make a team pay if they don’t bring their A game.

2. Perimeter defense – The Spurs have 7 players that average at least 18.5 minutes per game and shoot at least 34.3% from the 3-point line. As a team, they shoot nearly 40% (39.9) from the arc. To say the 3-point shot is a big part of San Antonio’s offense, would be a gross understatement. It will be interesting to see who starts out on Parker defensively. It’s usually Thabo Sefolosha, but with him out, will Westbrook remain disciplined and stay in front of Parker the entire game?

3. Reggie Jackson – Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook will give you what they usually give you. But the Spurs killer of late has been Jackson. If he can take charge of the game when the bench is in the game, he could be the difference in the game.

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs preview (Game 26 of 82)

Posted on December 21, 2013 by Alex Roig

When: Saturday, 21 December 2013 at 7:30 PM CST
Where: AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX

On any given night in the NBA, the most important focus is on the game itself. There’s rarely any future implications on games, especially in December. Then there are those teams that know, barring injury, that they are good enough to be at or near the top of their conference when the season ends. Those handful of teams know that not only do they have to build a resume of winning basketball, but they also have to beat the teams they are battling for seeding. This is where the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs find themselves.

To most, this is just a game in December. But to these two team, they know this game may have further reaching implications for late May and into June. The Thunder won the first meeting between these two team 94-88. This will be the 2nd of 4 meetings between the two teams. In the first meeting, the Thunder outscored the Spurs by 10 in the 3rd quarter to turn a halftime deficit into a lead heading into the 4th quarter, and never looked back. Kevin Durant and Reggie Jackson led the way, with 24 and 23 points, respectively, while the Spurs had more of a balanced attack with 8 players scoring at least 6 points.

The Opponent

The Spurs come into the game 1/2 a game behind the Thunder with a 21-5 record. As is usually the case with this team, they are at or near the top of the league in points per game, assists per game, and opponent’s points per game. They run one of the better systems in the league and have the right players for that system. The offense is led by PG Tony Parker, who is day to day with a shin injury. Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard are dangerous at the wings, as Green is a 3-point specialist and Leonard is great at slashing to the basket. Up front, Tim Duncan may be showing signs of aging, but still requires attention from opponents. The bench is one of the more veteran-laden in the league led by Manu Ginobili, Boris Diaw, Marco Bellineli, and Patty Mills.

Probable Starting Line-ups

San Antonio Spurs

PG – Tony Parker
SG – Danny Green
SF – Marco Belinelli
PF – Tim Duncan
C – Tiago Splitter

Oklahoma City Thunder

PG – Russell Westbrook
SG – Thabo Sefolosha
SF – Kevin Durant
PF – Serge Ibaka
C – Kendrick Perkins

3 Keys to the Game

1. Pace – In the last 2 seasons, the Thunder have shown the ability to “out-athleticize” the Spurs. With Westbrook and Jackson pushing the tempo throughout the game, the Spurs have no answers for the speed that the Thunder play with.

2. Kevin Durant – With Kawhi Leonard out due to a dental procedure, the task of guarding Durant will fall on Belinelli and Ginobili. Durant’s eyes and smile just got bigger.

3. Remember May and June – With one already in the bag, securing another victory over a top Western Conference contender will do wonders for the team moving forward. If the Thunder are able to win the season series versus the top teams in the West, that will only help them in hopefully securing home court advantage throughout the playoffs.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder preview (Game 13 of 82)

Posted on November 27, 2013 by Alex Roig

When: Wednesday, 27 November 2013 at 7:00 PM CST
Where: Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, OK

The San Antonio Spurs have been the Oklahoma City Thunder’s chief rivals for the Western Conference crown for the past 2 seasons and that does not appear to be changing any time soon. After battling it out in a great 6-game series in the 2012 Western Conference Finals, and going toe to toe for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference last season, these two teams seem to be on the same collision course this season. Yes, there are a couple other teams, like the Los Angeles Clippers, Houston Rockets, and Golden State Warrior, that are trying to throw their hats into the fray. But the teams they are trying to catch are still the Spurs and the Thunder.

This is the first of four meeting this season between these two rivals. The team split the season series 2-2 last season, as the Thunder won the last game between them to eventually get the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference heading into the playoffs. The Spurs come into the game having won 11 in a row, while the Thunder have reeled off 4 straight. Each of these games are usually highly competitive affairs that almost always come down to a couple of possessions at the end of the game.

The Opponent

Every year we keep wondering when the Spurs will finally act their age (old) and every year we are met with defiance from Gregg Popovich’s team. While the Indiana Pacers are running away with the media-driven “best record in the NBA” talk, the Spurs, as usual, find themselves tied with the Pacers (13-1), but with much less fanfare. The Spurs are 10^th in the league in scoring at 102.1 points per game, but only give up 90.1 points per game on defense (good for 2^nd in the league). They are a lot like the Thunder in that they have a consistent core of players and then have specialists around that core. The Spurs’ attack, which consists of a lot of penetration and 3-point shooting, is spear-headed by point guard Tony Parker. The Spurs have 7 players that average at least 10 minutes per game and shoot over 35.7% from 3-point land. Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard man the wings and are 2 of the 7 players who are very adept at shooting the 3. Even though his numbers are down across the board, Tim Duncan still commands a modicum of respect, while Tiago Splitter is grabbing rebounds at a career high clip of 7.2 a game. The Spurs aren’t afraid to use anyone and everyone off of their bench, but the mainstays are Manu Ginobili, Boris Diaw, Marco Belinelli, and Patty Mills. Continue reading →

5 for 5: The Longest Shortest Season

Posted on September 3, 2013 by Alex Roig

5 for 5: Tragedies, Courtrooms, and Beginnings | 5 for 5: The Rivalries | 5 for 5: The Run | 5 for 5: The Thunder’s Godfather

This past season, the Oklahoma City Thunder completed their 5^th season in the state of Oklahoma. In a world dominated by round numbers, getting to the midway point is always a cause for celebration. In any relationship, you look back at key moments that made it possible to arrive at certain anniversary marks. In the next few weeks heading into training camp, I’ll be looking at 5 defining moments that made it possible for the Thunder to not only roar into the Plains, but also to do it in winning fashion.

The first part of this series focused on the beginnings of the Thunder organization in Oklahoma City. For the second part of the series, I want to focus on what was the apex for these first five years of Thunder basketball, the 2012 NBA Finals. For a little comparative perspective, there are 9 NBA teams (in their current city/team format) that have never reached the NBA Finals. The Toronto Raptors, Atlanta Hawks, Sacramento Kings, Memphis Grizzlies, Charlotte Bobcats, Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Clippers, Denver Nuggets, and New Orleans Hornets/Pelicans have never tasted the fine champagne of a conference championship. I’m excluding the Brooklyn Nets from the list because they’ve only been in Brooklyn for one season and went to the Finals as the New Jersey Nets twice. The proximity of Brooklyn, NY to Newark, NJ (about 15 miles apart) negates a huge change of fan base because of distance. I’m also excluding the Washington Wizards because they made it to the Finals as the Bullets, but decided to change the team’s name in 1997 due to the negative connotation between actual bullets and WashingtonDC being mentioned in the 90’s as the murder capital of the US.

The road to the Finals that season was like the Grateful Dead’s greatest hits album; that is to say a long, strange trip. To begin with, it was a season that almost never was. Although this lockout never reached the DEFCON 4 levels the ’98-‘99 lockout did, it was still nerve-wracking to watch every labor meeting end with the two sides having separate press conferences to disparage the other side. It was like watching your parents, after a nasty divorce, arguing over your custody.

When you are a fan of a team that is drastically improving and just entering the prime of its championship window, the last thing you want is a work stoppage. Anything that cuts into a year of your team’s development when you are close to becoming a perennial contender is the ultimate of detriments. The chemistry built from the previous seasons basically gets thrown out the window if players are allowed to sit for 15-18 months with no access to team coaches or trainers. Not to mention, the veteran players would be a year older and there would be a ton of questions regarding roster moves.

But alas, on November 26^th, 2011, after months of hearing about BRI, luxury tax, hard caps, and mid-level exceptions, cooler heads prevailed and an agreement was reached between the NBA and the players’ union. Instead of playing an entire 82 game schedule, the regular season would be trimmed to 66 games with the first day of the season beginning on Christmas. If seeing your team in the NBA Finals is Christmas in June, then seeing the NBA come back from a lockout was, literally, Christmas on Christmas. Continue reading →

2013 OKC Thunder Draft: A Postscript

Posted on July 5, 2013 by Alex Roig

The NBA draft to me is a time of hope. Whether your team has the first pick or the last pick in the draft, there’s always a sense of optimism that the guy your team drafted is destined for great things. And that’s why I’ve always enjoyed the draft. When the Thunder started becoming one of the better teams in the league, their position on the draft board started rising into the late first round. Their draft position from the last 5 seasons went as followed: 4^th (still as the Seattle Supersonics), 3^rd, 18^th, 24^th, and 28^th. Even with those high draft numbers though, we’ve been able to get good players late in the draft, namely Reggie Jackson and Perry Jones III.

Flash back to October 28^th, 2012. As soon as the details of the James Harden trade came out, and I saw that we got a first round pick from what was almost guaranteed to be a lottery team (Toronto) and a 2^nd round pick, which was almost guaranteed to be in the lower to mid 30’s (Charlotte), I started paying more attention than usual to the 2013 NBA draft. I would visit sites dedicated specifically to the draft (NBADraft.net and DraftExpress.com) and would study up on the prospects. I knew how to spell Giannis Adetokunbo before he Greek-a-nized his last name to Antetokounmpo.

For a team that was on the cusp of a championship the season before, the lottery pick could have been the final piece in the championship puzzle. While it is true that the Thunder gave up a big piece in Harden, having a possible lottery pick may have made finding his replacement a bit easier. Also, the possibility of drafting a good player on a rookie salary for, at least, 4 seasons is like manna from heaven for a team teetering on the luxury tax line.

Needless to say, when the Thunder were eliminated in the 2^nd round of the playoffs, my focus quickly switched to the NBA draft. With two picks in the first round, No. 12 and 29, and one early pick in the second round, No. 32, in what was deemed to be a weak draft, my expectations were that we weren’t going to be using all the picks. By most accounts, the teams in the top 5 weren’t necessarily exalting the selection of prospects at the top of the board. I thought the Thunder were going to do something big (i.e. trade up or trade for good veteran player).

It’s a funny thing about expectations, though. They can sometimes cloud your vision. When the picks started coming in, and guys that I thought were high on the Thunder’s draft board (Alex Len, Nerlens Noel, Ben McLemore, and CJ McCollum) started dropping, I thought it was prime time to make a trade and move up. But as those players started getting drafted, and every “We have a trade,” from David Stern yielded nothing for the Thunder, I started to feel disappointment.

As the draft went along and we only made minor moves, I literally had a feeling of utter dejection about this draft. I mean, this was the “Harden redemption” draft. We were supposed to get ourselves a blue chip prospect to join with Jeremy Lamb in order to have a feeling of success when it came to the James Harden trade. And it didn’t necessarily have anything to do with the players we drafted. It just felt like we let a golden opportunity go by without even trying to do anything.

But, alas, a little bit of sleep and a little bit of retrospect usually puts things into perspective. The more I thought about the players we got in this draft, the more I liked it. First off, this was not your draft if you are into instant gratification. This was a developmental draft, just like the last two drafts for the Thunder have been developmental drafts (Jackson, Lamb, and Jones III). As I analyzed this draft, I saw that we obtained players that will greatly help us in the future.

No. 12 – Steven Adams – C, University of Pittsburgh

The Thunder don’t necessarily have a good track record with it comes to centers. Since they’ve arrived in Oklahoma City, the Thunder have drafted two flame-outs and one Eurostash: Byron Mullens, Cole Aldrich, and Tibor Pleiss. The carryovers from the Seattle days (Mouhamed Sene, Robert Swift, and Johan Petro) were 21 feet of nothingness, and the current placeholder, Kendrick Perkins, just posted a negative PER in the playoffs. To say that the center position is a position of need is an understatement.

The 7 footer from New Zealand is a late bloomer, but has the tools to be successful in the NBA. He’s an athletic big man with quick feet known for his defense. He won’t be asked to contribute immediately and may spend a good deal of his rookie season in Tulsa playing for the Tulsa 66ers. With two of the top 10 players in the NBA in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, the Thunder don’t necessarily need an offensive savant in the middle. What they do need is someone that can move around, play defense, grab rebounds, catch a pass, and finish when they are within 5 feet of the basket. I have no doubt that Adams will be able to do that.

No. 26 – Andre Roberson – SF-PF, University of Colorado

This pick was a bit of head-scratcher to me. Not necessarily the pick itself, but the fact that the Thunder moved up 3 spots (albeit just for cash) to make the selection. Roberson was creeping up on every mock drafts, but wasn’t in line to be picked in the first round. Every mock draft had him falling to the beginning of the second round. Why the Thunder felt the need to move up to grab him? We may never know. Being that he is a Kawhi Leonard-like player, maybe the Thunder caught wind that the San Antonio Spurs were looking to draft him with the 28^th pick.

Roberson is a bit of an enigma. He’s 6’7, but has a 6’11 wingspan and was second in the NCAA in rebounding at 11.2 per game. Also, he’s one of the premier defenders in college. Those traits usually translate very well to the pro game. His offensive game is a different story. He struggles for consistency on the perimeter, but excels if he gets close to basket on dribble drives, cuts, and offensive put back. Because of this, he is often compared to Hall of Famer Dennis Rodman.

In a system and on a team that values players that can guard multiple positions, Roberson should eventually find a spot in the rotation as a defender. It wouldn’t surprise me if Roberson saw the most minutes with the Thunder of all the Thunder rookies.

No. 32 – Alex Abrines – SG-SF, FC Barcelona (Spanish ACB League)

Abrines is a stash pick that will probably stay in Europe for 1-2 more seasons. He asked teams not to drat him late in the first round, as the guaranteed money would be less and he would probably have to fit some of the bill for his buyout. The Thunder took a chance and drafted him with the second pick of the second round. He is a smooth shooting wing player with a flair for the dramatic that many have compared to Rudy Fernandez and Drazen Petrovic.

At 19 years of age, Abrines will have to improve his game and strengthen his body before he’ll be able to compete in the NBA. The only negative for the Thunder is that Abrines is young enough to improve to the point where going the NBA would not make financial sense, causing him to stay in Europe for the rest of his professional career.

No. 40 – Grant Jerrett – PF, University of Arizona (selected by Portland, traded to Oklahoma City for cash considerations)

Just when I thought there was no way we would draft three rookies to actually play on the team this upcoming season, the team goes and acquires a shooting big man in the 2^nd round. At 6’10, Jerrett showed great potential as a shooter and as a stretch 4 in the NBA. At this point though, perimeter shooting is his only noticeable strength. Jerrett has a tool the team needs, but will need to put in a lot of work to make the opening day roster. He may be a Ryan Anderson-type player, but he may have benefited from another season in college. If his strengths don’t outweigh his weaknesses in Summer League and during the preseason, Jarrett, as a second rounder, is a good candidate to not make the team.

Surprisingly, this draft said more about the players already on the team than those that were drafted. The team’s unwillingness to part with Jackson, Lamb, or Jones III to move up showed the confidence the team has in the young guys, and shows how the team values cohesiveness and development. With three rookies on the roster, look for the team to try to sign one or two veteran free agents to even out the youth on the bench.