Category Archives: Playoffs

Thunder @ Phoenix Suns preview (Game 4 of the Western Conference Quarterfinals)

Posted on by
Reply

  • #1 Oklahoma City Thunder (3-0) @ #8 Phoenix Suns (0-3)
  • When: Monday, 27 April 2026 at 8:30pm CST
  • Where: Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ
  • TV: Peacock
  • Series Record: OKC leads 3-0

The Tip-Off

The Slog. It’s what I like to call Game 4’s the Oklahoma City Thunder are involved in. Over the last two postseasons prior to this year’s, the Thunder have gone 6-0 in Game 4’s. But the average margin of victory in those games was just 4.7 points, with the largest margin of victory being 8 points. Two of those games were decided by just two points (against Memphis and Minnesota). In three of those series (against Dallas, Denver, and Indiana), the Thunder were facing a 2-1 series deficit and NEEDED Game 4 to even the series. The one constant in all of those games has been the performance of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. In the six Game 4’s from the last two postseasons, SGA has averaged 32.7 points on 47% shooting from the field, 6.8 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 2.5 steals, and 1 block.

Betting Info, presented by FanDuel

  • Line: OKC -11.5
  • O/U: 214.5

Injury Report

OKC

  • Thomas Sorber – OFS (knee/ACL)
  • Jalen Williams – OUT (hamstring)

PHX

  • Jordan Goodwin – Questionable (calf)
  • Mark Williams – OUT (foot)

Three Big Things

  1. Next Man Up – With Jalen Williams and Isaiah Joe both missing Game 3, the “next man up” mentality shifted over to Aaron Wiggins and Jared McCain both getting significant playoff minutes. And each played their role well. McCain came into the game and played that hybrid “Isaiah Joe/Ajay Mitchell” role and scored 7 quick points in the second quarter. Wiggins played 11 minutes, and while there was anything spectacular about his performance, he was a +8 in the game during that time. This is a testament to coach Mark Daigneault and his insistence on keeping players ready throughout the regular season.
  2. Chet Holmgren – Phoenix is still without Mark Williams, and while Oso Ighodaro had a good bounce-back game in Game 3, the center position is still a point of weakness in the Suns’ lineup. Holmgren struggled a little on offense in that game, especially with the absence of Dub, who opens up so many opportunities for Holmgren in the halfcourt. I think we a little more big to big action in this game to exploit Phoenix’s size deficiency.
  3. Just Get It Done – As we’ve seen in the early going of these playoffs, the postseason eventually turns into a war of attrition. Last postseason, we saw injuries to Jayson Tatum, Tyrese Haliburton, Damian Lillard, Aaron Gordon, and to a lesser extend, Dub and Chet, all have effects on their teams’ playoff performances. This postseason, we’ve seen Donte DiVencenzo and Anthony Edwards both go down with serious injuries within minutes of each other. Victor Wembanyama was concussed for a game and a half. Peyton Watson, Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves have yet to play a game in the playoffs. Kevin Durant has only played in one game. And Gordon and Dub are back dealing with soft tissue injuries. The less time you need to play, the less possibility you have of injuries occurring. As Daigneault has been known to say, “We can only control what we can control,” and winning Game 4 is definitely something they can control.

Thunder @ Phoenix Suns preview (Game 3 of the Western Conference Quarterfinals)

Posted on by
Reply

  • #1 Oklahoma City Thunder (2-0) @ #8 Phoenix Suns (0-2)
  • When: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 2:30pm CST
  • Where: Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ
  • TV: NBC/Peacock
  • Series Record: OKC leads 2-0

The Tip-Off

The grabbing of the back of the leg and then the ginger walking. Two of the worst things you want to see from one of your best players when your team is in the postseason. The Lakers dealt with that a week before the playoffs started with Luka Doncic. Denver has been dealing with seemingly for the past year with Aaron Gordon’s hamstring and now Peyton Watson’s hamstring. And, of course, the Thunder this season with Jalen Williams. The major difference is that Oklahoma City has done a good job of weathering the storm in Dub’s absences. Discounting the last two games of the season, in which most of the top rotational players for OKC sat, the Thunder were 39-8 in games that Williams missed due to injury. That’s an 83% win percentage. I’m in no way saying that the Thunder can win a championship without Dub. But they are pretty well equipped to manage the loss until he can return and they have the experience from this past season to lean on.

Betting Info, presented by FanDuel

  • Line: OKC -8.5
  • O/U: 212.5

Injury Report

OKC

  • Isaiah Joe – OUT (personal)
  • Thomas Sorber – OFS (knee/ACL)
  • Jalen Williams – OUT (hamstring)

PHX

  • Grayson Allen – Questionable (hamstring)
  • Jordan Goodwin – Questionable (calf)
  • Mark Williams – OUT (foot)

Three Big Things

  1. Adapt To The Officiating – Referees are humans. We’ve seen how they’ve changed how they ref SGA due to pressure from the narrative-driven outside world. Now, that usually normalizes itself, but peer pressure, even from people you don’t know, is truly a thing. With OKC’s depth taking a bit of a hit with Dub and Isaiah Joe being out, it would behoove OKC to play smart on defense and avoid getting into any foul trouble.
  2. Control The Perimeter – For the playoffs, the Suns rank dead last in points in the paint. Part of that is that OKC is playing defense against them. But the majority of the reason for that is that Phoenix is just not a driving team. They don’t have a great play-maker, don’t have a great inside presence, and they generate most of their offense from the perimeter. Phoenix started hitting more shots in Game 2 and OKC needs to do their part to make sure Phoenix doesn’t stay comfortable shooting from outside.
  3. Ajay Mitchell – With the loss of Jalen Williams, so much more of the offensive load will rest on Mitchell’s shoulders. Whether he starts or not, I can definitely see more time for Mitchell with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, especially if we see early on, that Phoenix is doubling or blitzing SGA every time he touches the ball.

Jalen Williams out with a Grade-1 hamstring strain

Posted on by
Reply

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams has been diagnosed with a Grade-1 left hamstring strain and will be evaluated on a week by week basis. The injury occurred in the third quarter of Game 2 of OKC’s Western Conference Quarterfinals matchup against the Phoenix Suns. Williams drove hard to the basket on a fast break and Devin Booker’s contest caused Williams to land a bit awkwardly. He immediately grimaced and grabbed at his left hamstring. Dub stayed in the game for about two more possessions and then intentionally fouled Booker and went to the bench. After a couple of minutes on the bench, Williams headed back to the locker room for the rest of the game.


In what has been an injury-wracked season for Williams, it is the right hamstring that has bothered him season. On January 17th, Williams initially injured his right hamstring against Miami. After sitting out 10 games, he came back and played two games before reinjuring that same hamstring on February 11th, in a game against the Suns. That reinjury caused Williams to be sidelined for about 6 weeks before he came back on March 23rd. In the offseason, Williams had surgery due to a ligament tear in his wrist, that caused him to miss the first 19 games of the season. Williams had started to look like his explosive self before this current injury occurred.

Phoenix Suns vs. Thunder preview (Game 2 of the Western Conference Quarterfinals)

Posted on by
Reply

  • #8 Phoenix Suns (0-1) vs. #1 Oklahoma City Thunder (1-0)
  • When: Wednesday, 22 April 2026 at 8:30pm CST
  • Where: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK
  • TV: ESPN
  • Series Record: OKC leads 1-0

The Tip-Off

With 8:05 left in the first quarter, Phoenix held a 12-9 lead and had a little momentum in the early going of the game. The jump shots were falling on their end and the Thunder were missing on the other end. If the Suns were going to steal a game, this is the recipe that would need to be used.

Then Jalen Williams happened.

An open three off a Shai Gilgeous-Alexander kickout. Then an immediate steal and transition dunk off a Jalen Green turnover and the Thunder held their first lead of the game. A lead, they would never relinquish. A couple possessions later, Dillon Brooks tried to physically back Dub down, but was met with equal physicality and lost the ball, which popped up right into the waiting arms of Chet Holmgren. And, as Brooks is prone to do, he swiped in the direction of the ball, but caught Holmgren’s face. The ref reviewed it, hit Brooks with a Flagrant-1, and Holmgren hit four free throws (two from the flagrant and then two on a subsequent foul on the offensive possession). By the end of the first quarter, OKC held a 15-point lead.

If you are going to come back on OKC, though, the time to do it is when SGA is sitting on the bench. And that usually occurs in the first six minutes of the 2nd quarter and first six minutes of the fourth quarter (if the game is close enough (wink!)). So there was a little ray of hope for Phoenix (see what I did there?) heading into the 2nd quarter.

Then Jaylin Williams happened.

The Thunder led 37-23 when Jaylin Williams checked into the game for Isaiah Hartenstein. For the next 4.5 minutes, J-Will put on a defensive clinic, the likes we’ve never seen from Williams. In that time span, J-Will had 4 rebounds, 2 steals, an assist, and 2 points. That 14-point lead ballooned up to 23 by the time Williams sat back down with 6:01 left in the quarter. It was pretty much game after that…all on the back of two guys with the initials J. Williams.

Betting Info, presented by FanDuel

  • Line: OKC -17.5
  • O/U: 215.5

Injury Report

OKC

  • Thomas Sorber – OUT (knee/ACL)

PHX

  • Grayson Allen – Questionable (hamstring)
  • Jordan Goodwin – Questionable (calf)
  • Mark Williams – Questionable (foot)

Three Big Things

  1. 0-0 Mentality – I know this is the Thunder’s mantra. And they seem to be living by it 100% of the time. But we also know that human nature is real. And the possibility of letting up after demolishing a team while your best player has a subpar game is there. We kind of saw that in the Memphis series last postseason. OKC won the first game by 51 points and then won the second game by 19. But in Game 3, Memphis came out like an injured animal with their back against the wall and had the Thunder down by 29 points before Ja Morant left the game with an injured hip. It took a historic comeback in the second half for OKC to escape with a narrow victory in that game. By Game 4, Memphis kind of started to figure out the Thunder’s Rubik’s cube, even without Morant, and gave the Thunder a helluva game, losing by only two in the series clincher for OKC. There are many lessons that can be gleaned from last year’s postseason run, and these may be two of the most important ones: Sometimes your toughest opponent is complacency and you can’t take your margin of victory from the last game Linto the next game.
  2. SGA – OKC won by 35 despite SGA having shooting splits of 28/0/88. We used to make fun of Kyle Singler for having a shooting split total under 100, and SGA nearly did that in this game. With all that said, Phoenix was being physical with him and was sending doubles at various points in the game. But the evolution of SGA’s game is that he also had 7 assists and 0 turnovers. If “the others” are making enough shots and the defense is up to the Thunder standard, there may not be a necessity for a hyper-efficient SGA game.
  3. Take Care of Business – While the series on the other side of the bracket are both tied at 1 game apiece, the Lakers are taking care of business against the Rockets on OKC’s side of the bracket. The hope was that the 4/5 matchup would be a 6 or 7 game series, but the reality is this Kevin Durant-led team appears to be heading down the path most Durant-led teams have gone, and that’s implosion. A Lakers sweep would give them time to rest, heal up, and be ready for the second round. Not that it worries me that much, but making sure that OKC gets the same amount of time to rest up would be beneficial.

Phoenix Suns vs. Thunder preview (Game 1 of the Western Conference Quarterfinals)

Posted on by
Reply

  • #8 Phoenix Suns (0-0) vs. #1 Oklahoma City Thunder (0-0)
  • When: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 2:30pm CST
  • Where: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK
  • TV: ABC
  • Series Record: 0-0

The Tip-Off

We’re finally here. October 21st, 2025, aka Ring Night, truly feels like it was years ago. The Thunder hoisting up the Larry O’Brien trophy on June 22nd, 2025, might as well have been a decade ago. The regular season this year didn’t feel like a statement it was the last two previous season. Instead, it felt like a slog. Like you were walking in wet cement as it begins to solidify. When you accomplish the ultimate goal in team sports, have a shortened offseason, and bring back basically the same roster, the regular season can, at times, feel like it takes on less meaning. Add to that, the list of walking wounded the Thunder trotted in night in and night out and the unspoken human nature component of “why try ridiculously hard every evening, if the ultimate prize lays at the end of a rainbow where you have to arrive as healthy as possible,” and now you see why the regular season felt a bit more joyless this year. And yet, with all that, as true Oklahomans can attest, they weathered the storm. Their fortitude and commitment to the job allowed them to finish with the best record in the league for the second straight season. That means home-court advantage for every Game 1 and Game 7* (if necessary). And as we saw last season, having home-court in Game 7, was a lot more important than having it in Game 1.

The Season Series

  • Game 1 – November 28th, 2025 – The first meeting between OKC and Phoenix was notable, not only because it was one of their NBA Cup Group Play games, but also because it was the return of Jalen Williams back into OKC’s lineup after missing the first 19 games of the season recovering from offseason wrist surgery. Oklahoma City won 123-119, in a game that saw them lead by as many as 15 points early in the fourth quarter, only to squander that lead away and have it be a one-point game with 2 minutes left in the game. Some shot-making and play-making late in the fourth from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander helped close the door on the Suns. OKC was led by SGA (37 points and 8 assists) and Chet Holmgren (23 points and 8 rebounds).
  • Game 2 – December 10th, 2025 – Both of these teams met again in the NBA Cup Quarterfinals, and this time, the result was never in question. Phoenix was without Devin Booker and OKC’s defense took full advantage of Phoenix missing their main offensive engine, winning 138-89. The only other notable thing in this game was Grayson Allen getting ejected in the 3rd quarter due to a Flagrant-2 on Chet Holmgren.
  • Game 3 – January 4th, 2026 – This was during the time in the season where OKC looked like their confidence was waining a bit after the losses to San Antonio in December. OKC appeared to have control for most of the game, but Phoenix kept it close and finally overtook the Thunder in the end on a Booker game-winning three with 0.7 seconds left in the game, winning 108-105. Phoenix completely destroyed OKC on the boards in this game, grabbing 10 more offensive rebounds and 20 more rebounds total.
  • Game 4 – February 11th, 2026 – Probably the most definitive J-Dub game of the season, as OKC won 136-109. He led the way, scoring 28 points on 11/12 shooting from the field, before exiting the game in the third quarter with a reaggravation of his hamstring strain. Up to that point, it felt like his wrist issues were behind him and he could start to put some games together. But, alas, it wasn’t in the cards at that time. Six other players scored in double figures for the Thunder, in a game that lacked both SGA and Booker.
  • Game 5 – April 12th,2026 – The G-League Suns beat the G-League Thunder, 135-103. Branden Carlson led the way for OKC with 26 points and 10 boards and Payton Sandfort pumped in a career-high 23 points on 5/9 shooting from deep.

Betting Info, presented by FanDuel

  • Line: OKC -14.5
  • O/U: 215.5

Injury Report

OKC

  • Thomas Sorber – OFS (knee/ACL)

PHX

  • Grayson Allen – Questionable (hamstring)
  • Mark Williams – Questionable (foot)

Three Big Things

  1. Jalen Green – One player the Thunder haven’t had to account for in their previous meetings this season was Jalen Green. The mercurial shooting guard was absent from all 5 of the regular season games due to various injuries. But he has shown up for Phoenix in the last two play-in games, scoring a total of 71 points on 10/21 shooting from deep. If Green is getting hot at the right time, it could be an added weapon Phoenix could throw at OKC. One of the ways that Phoenix can beat OKC is in shot-making variance and Green can add to that.
  2. Size – Despite having Mark Williams and Oso Ighodaro on their roster, Phoenix has seemingly fallen in love with their small-ball lineup that features Ryan Dunn and Royce O’Neal as their bigs. It’ll be interesting to see the lineups that Suns coach Jordan Ott deploys. Regardless, OKC’s platoon of big men (Chet, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Jaylin Williams) should fare very well on the interior against the Suns.
  3. Ajay Mitchell and Isaiah Joe – Probably the biggest X-factors for the Thunder outside of the performance of their Big-3. Joe has been on a consistent tear here over the past couple of months, shooting over 41% from deep since the new year. In addition, his defense and overall offensive game have allowed him to stay on the floor and be less of a liability as an overall rotational piece. And Mitchell has been a revelation this season as a play-maker, ball handler, and offensive engine with or without SGA or Dub in the lineup with him. If those two can continue into the playoffs what they’ve been doing in the regular season, it could spell big trouble for the rest of the teams left in the playoffs.

The Thunder and the Play-In Tournament

Posted on by
Reply

There is, of course, an obvious connection to the Play-In Tournament and the Oklahoma City Thunder. As the No.1 seed in the Western Conference, the Thunder will face the winner of the second Western Conference play-in game that will take place on Friday, April 17th. One of the Trailblazers, the Suns, the Clippers, or the Warriors will be the first step in the Thunder’s quest to be the first repeat champion in eight seasons. A collection of teams the Thunder went a combined 13-3 against.

But Oklahoma City may have ulterior motives in their viewership of the Play-In Tournament. Depending on how things shake out, OKC has the possibility of netting up to two lottery picks in what is considered by many to be a stacked 2026 NBA Draft. They own an unprotected Clippers’ first round pick from the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander deal. Yes, seven years later, that deal is still the gift that keeps on giving. They also own a top-4 protected first round pick from the Philadelphia 76ers. That pick came via the trade that sent Al Horford to Philly at the beginning of the Thunder’s rebuild in 2020. For a team that just finished with the best record in the league and is a championship contender, getting even one lottery pick in a draft like this is a nightmare for the rest of the association.

What’s even scarier, is that something like this already happened to the Thunder a couple of years ago. In the 2022 Play-In Tournament, the Clippers came into that as the 8th seed. In the 7/8 game, they went on the road and played the Minnesota Timberwolves. They ended up losing that game, 109-104, as Patrick Beverly celebrated in front of the Minnesota crowd like he had won the MVP, Finals, Finals MVP, and a billion dollar lottery all in one felled swoop. The loss didn’t eliminate the Clippers, though. In the second play-in game, the Clippers hosted the winners of the 9/10 game, the New Orleans Pelicans. Before the game though, Clippers star Paul George tested positive for Covid-19 and had to sit out that game. The Clippers, now missing both George and Kawhi Leonard, put up a spirited fight, even going up by 10 entering the fourth quarter, but ultimately lost the game down the stretch, 105-101. That loss knocked them out of the playoffs and into the lottery. It was already known that the Thunder would get the Clippers pick regardless of where it landed (remember, the gift that keeps on giving). But now, the Thunder had, not just one, but now two picks in the lottery of the 2022 Draft.

We all know what happened after that. The Thunder luckily jumped up in the lottery and got the 2nd pick. The Clippers’ pick landed at 12. Chet Holmgren was picked by the Thunder with the 2nd pick. And with the Clippers’ pick (WTTP, if you know, you know), the Thunder drafted a draft combine rising star from the University of Santa Clara by the name of Jalen Williams. And the rest, as we know, is history. Williams became an All-Star and All-NBA player by his third season and helped the Thunder win their first championship in Oklahoma City. All because a team lost twice in the Play-In Tournament.

Can it happen again? Maybe. Maybe not. Single game results can be so varied. Things like home-court advantage may not necessarily matter in this type of setting. But to have the opportunity to get, not just one, but two lottery picks in a draft like this is crazy. The Thunder brass will definitely be locked into the Play-In Tournament. Not just for the purposes of scouting their possible first round opponent, but also for the purposes of seeing where their picks are going to land. The way you keep a dynasty rolling is by resupplying with talent from the draft. Rookies are usually cheaper than more established players. With the Thunder definitely going head first into the tax and possibly into the second apron next season, having the ability to draft top-tier (cheaper) talent is tantamount to their ability to continue contending. OKC will need Philadelphia to lose twice and the Clippers to lose once. It’s happened once already. Is it in the cards to happen again? I don’t know, but we’ll definitely be watching.

Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers preview (Game 79 of 82)

Posted on by
Reply

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (62-16, 1st in the West) @ Los Angeles Lakers (50-28, 4th in the West)
  • When: Tuesday, 07 April 2026 at 9:30pm CST
  • Where: Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA
  • TV: FDSN-OK
  • Offensive Rating: LAL: 117.1 (9th) / OKC: 117.6 (7th)
  • Defensive Rating: LAL: 116.0 (20th) / OKC: 106.0 (1st)
  • Net Rating: LAL: 1.2 (16th) / OKC: 11.6 (1st)
  • Current Streaks: LAL: Losers of 2 straight, but had won 13 of their previous 14 games / OKC: Winners of 5 straight
  • Magic Number (to clinch the No. 1 seed throughout the playoffs): 2

The Tip-Off

In my honest opinion, this is the most dangerous time in the season for a contending team. The thin line between resting players and keeping them sharp by playing in sometimes meaningless games leads to the possibility of fatigue and, worst of all, injuries. The Lakers experienced that twice in one game, with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves being knocked of the Thunder game (and the rest of the regular season and likely part or all of the postseason) with soft-tissue injuries. San Antonio saw Victor Wembanyama go down in their last game with a rib injury. Regardless of the severity of the injury, rib injuries have a tendency to creep back up, especially with the increased physicality of playoff games. This is why wrapping up your playoff positioning as early as possible is so important.

This is the fourth and final meeting of the regular season between the Thunder and Lakers. The Thunder have won the first three meetings this season by an average of 27 points.

Betting Info, presented by FanDuel

  • Line: OKC -18.5
  • O/U: 220.5

Injury Report

OKC

  • Thomas Sorber – OFS (knee/ACL)
  • Jalen Williams – OUT (hamstring injury management)

LAL

  • Luka Doncic – OUT (hamstring)
  • LeBron James – OUT (foot)
  • Austin Reaves – OUT (oblique)
  • Marcus Smart – OUT (ankle)

Three Big Things

  1. Take Care of Business – With a magic number of 2, the Thunder could go ahead and wrap up home-court advantage for the playoffs by the end of the day on Wednesday. But the games still need to be played and the Thunder face a Lakers team that is very depleted, but very desperate. The Lakers will likely come out like a wounded animal, looking to not only seek some revenge on the Thunder, but also regain their grip on the 3rd seed in the West. The Thunder will need to come out early, play their game, and not give LA any form of hope.
  2. Depth – The Thunder have it. The Lakers currently do not. This is where the game can go from a deficit to a blow-out for the Lakers. Los Angeles will have to contend with one of the best starting line-ups in the league, and then will have to match that against one of the best/deepest benches in the league.
  3. Attack the Paint – The key to the blowout victory on April 2nd wasn’t the three-pointers or the injuries to Reaves and Doncic. It was OKC’s ability to get into the paint and then cause havoc once there by either scoring or spraying the ball out to open shooters. The Thunder scored 64 points in the paint. Their season average for points in the paint is 49.5 (good for 17th in the league). With the lack of rim protection and with Marcus Smart still being out, this may be another paint-touch mastery class in the making.

Thunder @ Indiana Pacers Preview (Game 3 – NBA Finals)

Posted on by
Reply

Where We Currently Stand

  • Game 1 – 111-110 Pacers – Indiana led for 0.3 seconds of the game. Thunder led throughout, but played “not to lose” late in the game which resulted in Indiana mounting a comeback and having the last meaningful possession of the game, which resulted in a go-ahead midrange jumper from Tyrese Haliburton. Series: 1-0 IND
  • Game 2 – 123-107 OKC – Thunder use a 19-2 run in the 2nd quarter to build up a 18-point halftime lead that Indiana could not overcome this time. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was masterful in this game, putting together a 34 point, 8 assist, 5 rebound, 4 steal, and 1 block stat line. Series: Tied 1-1
  • Game 3 – June 11th, 2025 at 7:30pm CST in Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN.
  • Gambler’s Corner
  • Line: OKC -5.5
  • O/U: 227.5

Game 3 Adjustments

1. More Aggressive Haliburton – Tyrese Haliburton is inherently an unselfish player. He would much rather prefer a democratic offensive system, instead of a totalitarian one where he’s the focal point. But that doesn’t mean that he can’t be that guy. In the fourth quarter of Game 2, Haliburton asserted himself a bit more and scored 12 of his 17 points on 5/6 shooting. Another surprising stat is that Haliburton hasn’t attempted a free throw in the Finals yet. While he’ll never be mistaken for a free throw merchant (3 attempts per game during the regular season), his lack of aggressiveness in the Finals has hurt the Pacers. I see that changing in Game 3.

2. Defending SGA – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 34 points on 11-21 shooting and it didn’t even look like he was trying too hard. Whether it was splitting weak double teams or just going at his primary defender (usually his country-mates Andrew Nembhard and Bennedict Mathurin), SGA was in an offensive zone that only great scorers get into. The Thunder scheme was to try to get SGA loose and moving downhill early in the set, sometimes up to 7 feet outside the 3-point line. If Indiana is going to try to play tighter and more physically on SGA, you could see a game where he becomes more of a distributor. But it could also backfire on Indiana and we could see SGA get to the free throw line at Dwayne Wade-levels in this game.

3. The Others – Whether it’s Indiana’s Others or Oklahoma City’s Others, the Others will decide who wins Game 3. Will we see a big Pascal Siakim game? Will Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren have a defining game in this series? Will Indiana’s shooting get hot playing in front of their home crowd? Can OKC’s bench travel with them to Gainbridge?

4. Game 3’s – This is going to be the immovable object versus the unstoppable force. Oklahoma City has lost their last two Game 3’s and was down by 29 points at one point in Game 3 against Memphis before coming back to win that game. Indiana has lost all three of their Game 3’s in these playoffs by an average of 14.7 points. Something’s got to give in this Game 3.

5. Dominant OKC – While the series is tied 1-1, Oklahoma City has clearly been the better team in this series. They’ve led for 94 of the 96 minutes so far and have been able to mount double-digit leads with ease throughout the series. Now to see if they can continue doing that on the road.

Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Series Preview – NBA Finals

Posted on by
1

Schedule

  • Game 1 – June 5th, 2025 @ 7:30pm CST at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK
  • Game 2 – June 8th, 2025 @ 7:00pm CST at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK
  • Game 3 – June 11th, 2025 @ 7:30pm CST at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN
  • Game 4 – June 13th, 2025 @ 7:30pm CST at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN
  • *Game 5 – June 16th, 2025 @ 7:30pm CST at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK
  • *Game 6 – June 19th, 2025 @ 7:30pm CST at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN
  • *Game 7 – June 22nd, 2025 @ 7:00pm CST at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK* – * * – If necessary

Quick Stats (Playoffs)

  • Offensive Rating – IND: 117.7 (2nd) / OKC: 115.9 (3rd)
  • Defensive Rating – IND: 113.6 (9th) / OKC: 104.7 (1st)
  • Net Rating – IND: 4.1 (4th) / OKC: 11.2 (2nd)

The Set-Up

Let’s be honest: if you marked this Finals match-up down in October 2024, then your phone number probably either starts with a 405 area code or a 317 area code. I’m sure a lot of people will tell you that an NBA Finals without LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Nikola Jokic, or Steph Curry will be bad for the league. I’m sure they’ll wax poetic about superteams and dynasties of yore. They may even try to convince that these Finals will be the least watched finals ever. But don’t listen to them.

Every crop of superstars has to eventually meet it’s end. That LeBron and Curry have pushed their reigns out so far has been nothing short of impressive. Kudos to them for showing a new crop of stars how to take care of their bodies and push the bounds of longevity. But one era has to finish for another one to begin. And that is what these Finals may be representing. One, not necessarily built by superteams, but by team depth. One, not necessarily focused on the heliocentricity of one player, but on the ability to have five players on the court be 5-tool players. One, where the most important guy in the organization may not be the league MVP, but the league’s Executive of the Year.

Teams are being built differently now, and this may be the first view of how the NBA will look like under the new CBA. And there will be moans and groans about how great things were in the past. But, yet, somehow, someway, the league continues to grow. The social media hits continue to climb. The game crosses more and more boundaries as it continues to battle futbol (no, not football) as a truly global game. Soccer remains king throughout the world, but basketball continues to lie in wait as the prince that was promised. As the NBA landscape changes, these two teams, the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder, are the teams that will usher basketball into this new era. You may be watching the next great dynasty unfold before your eyes.

Regular Season Series

Game 1 – Dec. 26th, 2024 – Thunder win 120-114 in Indianapolis, IN – SGA scores a then career-high 45 points as Lu Dort and the Thunder defense holds Tyrese Haliburton to 4 points on 6 FG attempts. Isaiah Hartenstein pitched in with an 11 point, 13 rebound double-double and Jalen Williams added in 20 points.

Game 2 – Mar. 29th, 2024 – Thunder win 132-111 in Oklahoma City, OK – OKC outscores the Pacers by 20 points combined in the 2nd and 3rd quarters and uses that cushion to cruise to victory. SGA scores 33 points and get big time contributions from Luguentz Dort (22 points on 6/7 shooting from deep) and Isaiah Joe (19 points on 5/7 shooting from deep).

Three Big Things

1. Twins? – These two teams are definitely not identical twins. But they could be classified as fraternal twins with how similar they are. Here are just a few stats that show how similar these two teams are: After January 1st, 2025, the Pacers (33) and Thunder (41) had the most wins in the league during that time. They both have a 12-4 record in the playoffs heading into the Finals. They are No. 2 and 3 in points per game in the playoffs, being separated by only 0.3 of a point. They are No. 1 and 2 in pace in the playoffs. They are 1 and 2 in points off turnovers. They are No. 1 and 3 in fastbreak points. They both get back on defense, being No. 1 and 2 on both Opponent Points off Turnovers and Opponent Fastbreak Points. It’s scary how similar these teams are, statistically.

2. SGA – The biggest difference is that one team boasts the league MVP and the other doesn’t. SGA has been playing some of his best basketball these last few weeks. While he may have started off slow in the first few games of the playoffs, he has picked it up when it has mattered most, scoring 30 or more points in 11 of his last 14 games. Teams have used various schemes to try to stop SGA, but it has been all for naught. In the two regular season games this season, SGA has averaged 39 against Indiana.

3. Living in the Corner – Indiana’s offense in these playoffs has not just been predicated on Haliburton’s floor generalship, but also on the shooters making corner 3’s. Indiana has shot an amazing 46.9% on 9.2 attempts these playoffs. That is up from 40.6% during the regular season. A 16-game sample size is big enough to assume that it can continue for the Pacers in the finals. But if they revert back to their regular season norms, the Pacers could be in trouble.

Thunder @ Denver Nuggets Preview (Game 6 – 2nd Round)

Posted on by
Reply
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (7-2) @ Denver Nuggets (6-6)
  • When: Thursday, 15 May 2025 at 7:30pm CST
  • Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
  • Series: OKC leads 3-2
  • TV: ESPN
  • Playoff Offensive Rating – DEN: 110.3 (9th) / OKC: 115.2 (5th)
  • Playoff Defensive Rating – DEN: 114.8 (10th) / OKC: 101.1 (1st)
  • Playoff Net Rating – DEN: -4.5 (11th) / OKC: 14.1 (1st)

The Set-Up

Rewind back to Game 5 against the Dallas Mavericks last year. The Thunder were coming off a hard-fought, comeback victory in Game 4 on the road to tie that series at 2 games. The momentum was definitely in OKC’s favor. Heading back home for Game 5. This is what teams fight all regular season for: that home court advantage. And it started off good. OKC up 8-2 two minutes into that game. It quickly went downhill from there. Dallas was up by 12 entering the 4th quarter and went up by as much as 15 points. OKC fought back as best they could, cutting the deficit to 7, but ultimately couldn’t get over that hump as Dallas won the game 104-92.

When you juxtapose that to this series, it was nearly identical. The Thunder won a hard-fought, comeback victory in Game 4 on the road to tie the series at 2 games apiece. Momentum firmly on OKC’s side. And the Thunder started Game 5 off like they were trying to replicate the buzzsaw performance that was Game 2. OKC was up 12-2 with 7:58 left in the first quarter when Denver took their first timeout of the game. And then the fun stopped. Nikola Jokic went into MVP form, Jamal Murray remembered that he usually performs well in the playoffs, and the Thunder’s shooting dried up. Heading into the fourth quarter, the Thunder found themselves down by 8 points. Denver tacked on one more point to the lead with 10 minutes left in the game.

And then it happened. The Thunder weren’t going to let the demons from last season haunt them. The Thunder found their will. And that will’s name was Lu Dort. Three straight threes from Dort brought the Thunder within two with 6 minutes left to play. That momentum shift affected the whole team, but probably, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander the most. From that point, he was the Shai we’ve seen all season. The MVP. The defense locked in and the offense opened up. An Isaiah Hartenstein alley-oop dunk. A Chet Holmgren layup. A Jalen Williams 3. Some SGA middies. And SGA 3 (finally!). What was a 9-point deficit with 8:25 left in the game turned into a 7-point victory. This wasn’t going to be a repeat of last year. On to Game 6…with a 3-2 series lead.

Betting Info

  • Line: OKC -4.5
  • O/U: 216.5

Injury Report

OKC
Nikola Topic – OUT (knee)

DEN
DaRon Holmes – OUT (Achilles)
Hunter Tyson – OUT (ankle)

Three Big Things

1. Decisiveness on Offense – While we’ve seen Shai Gilgeous-Alexander be Superman this season, we’ve also seen his possible kryptonite in this series against the Nuggets. When Denver forces SGA to think, even if it’s just for a second, it throws off his rhythm just enough for them to send one or two extra defenders his way and either get the ball out of his hands or force him into a live grenade situation. SGA has been most successful when he’s allowed to make a quick decision and play his natural game. This usually occurs when he’s off-ball, receives the ball on the move, and is usually accompanied by a high screen from Isaiah Hartenstein that allows him that sliver of space he needs to do what he likes. We’ve seen this late in the game in Games 4 and 5. It’s a possibility that by that point in the game he’s figured out the defense. It’s also a possibility that by that point, Denver is too exhausted to keep up with him and he takes advantage of them being a step slower. Whatever it is, he needs to do is earlier and more consistently throughout the game.

2. Desperation Jokic – If you guys thought Nikola Jokic was insufferable in Game 5 with all the foul-baiting and what not, you haven’t seen nothing yet. Jokic is a shark and when Denver gets into the bonus, it’s like he smells blood. It’s what great scorers do. SGA has 43 free throws in this series and Jokic has 41. But Jokic’s style of play and position lend him to hunt and seek contact more than SGA. If you thought the arm-locking and flailing was bad in Game 5, prepare yourself.

3. Close It Out! – Don’t put yourself in a position for a winner take all game. Too many variables can occur in those games that can negate home court advantage. An ankle sprain here, foul trouble there. If you are in the driver’s seat, go ahead and close it out. Will it be easy? Of course not. But the alternative is even more nerve-wracking.