Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs preview (Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals)

Posted on May 22, 2026 by Alex Roig

#1 Oklahoma City Thunder (9-1) @ #2 San Antonio Spurs (9-4)
When: Friday, 22 May 2026 at 7:30pm CST
Where: Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, TX
TV: NBC/Peacock
Playoff Offensive Rating (of the remaining 4 playoff teams): SAS: 114.4 (3rd) / OKC: 128.2 (1st)
Playoff Defensive Rating (of the remaining 4 playoff teams): SAS: 100.0 (1st) / OKC: 108.2 (3rd)
Playoff Net Rating (of the remaining 4 playoff teams): SAS: 14.4 (3rd) / OKC: 20.0 (2nd)
Series Record: Tied 1-1

The Tip-Off

Perspective can be a funny thing. Both of these teams are heading into Game 3 saying the same thing: “Damn, we could be up 2-0.” San Antonio had control for most of Game 1, but could never completely shut the door on OKC and required double overtime to secure a victory. And OKC was the aggressor in Game 2, but their lead never completely felt safe. A couple shots going in either way, and we have a completely different series on our hands. That’s how close this series has been, After two games, OKC is leading San Antonio in total points scored in the series, 237-235. When a series is tied 1-1, the winner of Game 3 wins the series 73.3% of the time. Last season, though, OKC bucked that trend in the Denver and Indiana series, losing Game 3 in both series, and coming back to win the series in 7 games.

Betting Info, presented by FanDuel

Line: OKC -1.5
O/U: 217.5

Injury Report

OKC

Thomas Sorber – OFS (knee/ACL)
Jalen Williams – Questionable (hamstring)

SAS

De’Aaron Fox – Questionable (ankle)
Dylan Harper – Questionable (adductor)

Three Big Things

The Officials – It sucks that this has to lead off my “3 Big Things”, but we all know there will ultimately be a game where the refs are going to swing the momentum either way. To their credit, the refs have been great in the first two games. This series is extremely physical both ways and the refs have done a great job of controlling the game, both from a physicality perspective and a foul-calling perspective. The more aggressive team has rightfully gotten the benefit of the calls in both games. But now that Isaiah Hartenstein has imposed his will on Victor Wembanyama, will Marc Davis and his crew try to course-correct the physicality or will it be a continuation of the first two games?
Injuries/Depth – This is why depth is king in today’s NBA. By this point in the season, teams are dealing with some sort of injury to key player(s). It is almost a given. New York has had to keep an eye on OG Anunoby’s hamstring. San Antonio with Fox and, now, Harper. OKC with Jalen Williams. Cleveland has probably been the healthiest, but also benefit from having a deep roster. If both Fox and Harper have to sit, it could bear itself pretty significantly if the Spurs have to play their 9th-10th guys. Jordan McLaughlin and Harrison Barnes got some action in Game 2 and McLaughlin was a -10 in his 7 minutes of action. OKC has basically played the entire season without Dub, but it still would have been beneficial to have him healthy throughout the playoffs.
Force Wemby to Work – As crazy as it may sound, they way to defeat Wembanyama is to make him work defensively. In Game 1, OKC was thinking too much on the offensive end and allowing Wemby to just roam and not tire himself out defensively. He played defense mentally, more than physically in Game 1. In Game 2, OKC continuously put him into actions and made him have to move around and make decisions. Many times, it was the correct decision, but OKC was able to catch more of a rhythm offensively because they forced Wemby to have to make a decision and then dictated terms from there. A secondary effect to this is tiring Wemby so he isn’t as effective on the offensive end for San Antonio.

Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers preview (Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals)

Posted on May 9, 2026 by Alex Roig

#1 Oklahoma City Thunder (6-0) at #4 Los Angeles Lakers (4-4)
When: Saturday, 09 May 2026 at 7:30pm CST
Where: crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA
TV: ABC
Playoff Offensive Rating: LAL: 106.5 (12th) / OKC: 125.5 (1st)
Playoff Defensive Rating: LAL: 109.4 (7th) / OKC: 107.5 (5th)
Playoff Net Rating: LAL: -2.9 (10th) / OKC: 18.0 (2nd)
Series Record: OKC leads 2-0

The Tip-Off

I guess we have to talk about it. The complaining by the losing team about the officiating has gotten to “bitching” levels as the playoffs have progressed. Like, I get it. The refs aren’t going to get every call, so let’s complain and hypermagnify the calls that don’t get called (or even the calls that do get called). But the Los Angeles Lakers didn’t lose Game 2 because of the officials. If anything, the refs basically threw LA a bone by having Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in foul trouble most of the evening and having him play the least amount of minutes in a playoff game since Game 1 of the Phoenix series when he sat out the fourth quarter. The Lakers lost the game because they had 20 turnovers and the shots that were falling in the first half, stopped falling in the 2nd half. Over 2 games, there have been 34 free throws attempted to OKC’s 38. Over those same 2 games, there have been 39 fouls called on LA to 35 called on OKC. The national narrative is not matching what the numbers are showing. And can we please, for the love of God, stop with the narrative that the NBA would somehow want OKC to move on more than the the Lakers. In no “Doctor Strange timeline” does that even make any sense.

Betting Info, presented by FanDuel

Line: OKC -8.5
O/U: 211.5

Injury Report

OKC

Thomas Sorber – OFS (knee/ACL)
Jalen Williams – OUT (hamstring)

LAL

Luka Doncic – OUT (hamstring)
Jarred Vanderbilt – Questionable (finger)

Three Big Things

Jared McCain – A late first and a couple of 2nds. That’s all it cost to pry McCain from Philadelphia. When OKC started accumulating their asset chest of draft picks, many people thought they would be used for star hunting. But since OKC did such a great job of assembling this team through the draft, trades, scrap-heap digging, and free agency, there hasn’t the need for star hunting. Instead, now that the roster is basically set, the team can focus on using those picks to get rotational needs. And one of the biggest needs this team had was continued 3-point shooting. But not just any shooting. We needed a shooter who could move around, relocate, get off a quick shot, and could play-make if necessary. We also needed someone who was an awesome person and, it wouldn’t hurt, if they were a social media guru also. The fit has been like a glove and his production in this series has been a door slammer. When he gets on a heater, the game completely flips towards OKC and the Lakers haven’t been able to answer.
Pace – One thing the Thunder haven’t been able to employ in this series has been increasing their pace, as compared to the much older Lakers. The two teams have been basically even in pace in the first two games of the series. LA has done a good job of stopping OKC’s first action (which is usually orchestrated by SGA) and that has caused OKC’s offense to become more “half-courty” and less transitional in nature. It would almost make more sense for Ajay Mitchell to bring the ball up and let SGA run off-ball to receive it when the defense is already in motion and not set. Or, they may just be saving that for the conference finals.
Weather the Storm – This definitely feels like a game where either the home team will be hyped early on or the officials will enter into the chat early in the game and make some questionable calls that will benefit the home team. I feel like this will be a Chet Holmgren foul-trouble game. Whatever the case, OKC will need to weather that storm and stay within striking distance.

Thunder @ Phoenix Suns preview (Game 3 of the Western Conference Quarterfinals)

Posted on April 25, 2026 by Alex Roig

#1 Oklahoma City Thunder (2-0) @ #8 Phoenix Suns (0-2)
When: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 2:30pm CST
Where: Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ
TV: NBC/Peacock
Series Record: OKC leads 2-0

The Tip-Off

The grabbing of the back of the leg and then the ginger walking. Two of the worst things you want to see from one of your best players when your team is in the postseason. The Lakers dealt with that a week before the playoffs started with Luka Doncic. Denver has been dealing with seemingly for the past year with Aaron Gordon’s hamstring and now Peyton Watson’s hamstring. And, of course, the Thunder this season with Jalen Williams. The major difference is that Oklahoma City has done a good job of weathering the storm in Dub’s absences. Discounting the last two games of the season, in which most of the top rotational players for OKC sat, the Thunder were 39-8 in games that Williams missed due to injury. That’s an 83% win percentage. I’m in no way saying that the Thunder can win a championship without Dub. But they are pretty well equipped to manage the loss until he can return and they have the experience from this past season to lean on.

Betting Info, presented by FanDuel

Line: OKC -8.5
O/U: 212.5

Injury Report

OKC

Isaiah Joe – OUT (personal)
Thomas Sorber – OFS (knee/ACL)
Jalen Williams – OUT (hamstring)

PHX

Grayson Allen – Questionable (hamstring)
Jordan Goodwin – Questionable (calf)
Mark Williams – OUT (foot)

Three Big Things

Adapt To The Officiating – Referees are humans. We’ve seen how they’ve changed how they ref SGA due to pressure from the narrative-driven outside world. Now, that usually normalizes itself, but peer pressure, even from people you don’t know, is truly a thing. With OKC’s depth taking a bit of a hit with Dub and Isaiah Joe being out, it would behoove OKC to play smart on defense and avoid getting into any foul trouble.
Control The Perimeter – For the playoffs, the Suns rank dead last in points in the paint. Part of that is that OKC is playing defense against them. But the majority of the reason for that is that Phoenix is just not a driving team. They don’t have a great play-maker, don’t have a great inside presence, and they generate most of their offense from the perimeter. Phoenix started hitting more shots in Game 2 and OKC needs to do their part to make sure Phoenix doesn’t stay comfortable shooting from outside.
Ajay Mitchell – With the loss of Jalen Williams, so much more of the offensive load will rest on Mitchell’s shoulders. Whether he starts or not, I can definitely see more time for Mitchell with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, especially if we see early on, that Phoenix is doubling or blitzing SGA every time he touches the ball.