Thunder @ Sacramento Kings preview (Game 72 of 82)

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (59-12) at Sacramento Kings (35-36)
  • When: Tuesday, 25 March 2025 at 9:00PM CST
  • Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
  • Offensive Rating – SAC: 115.7 (7th) / OKC: 118.9 (4th)
  • Defensive Rating – SAC: 115.1 (20th) / OKC: 106.2 (1st)
  • Net Rating – SAC: 0.6 (15th) / OKC: 12.7 (1st)

The Set-Up

To understand how dominant the Thunder have been this season, you have to look at things from the perspective of player advanced metrics. When you look at Player Impact Estimate (PIE) and filter it for players who play at least 24 minutes a game, the Thunder have 3 players on that list (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Jalen Williams). They are the only team to have three players in the top 35. As far as Offensive Rating, the Thunder have eight players in the top 50 of players who have averaged over 20 minutes a game (SGA, Chet Holmgren, Aaron Wiggins, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Hartenstein, Cason Wallace, and Dub). Defensively, though, is where they shine. The Thunder have eight players in the top 16 for Defensive Rating for players who have played at least 20 minutes per game. For Net Rating, that number goes 8 players in the top 15. It would almost be an understatement to say this team has been historically good this season.

This is the third meeting of the season between these two teams. The Thunder have won the first two meetings in convincing fashion, once in Sacramento and once in Oklahoma City. The average margin of victory for the Thunder in those two games was 27.5.

Betting Info

  • Line: OKC -9.5
  • O/U: 231.5

Injury Report

OKC

  • Ousmane Dieng – OUT (calf)
  • Alex Ducas – OUT (quad)
  • Chet Holmgren – Questionable (hip)
  • Ajay Mitchell – OUT (toe)
  • Nikola Topic – OUT (knee)
  • Cason Wallace – Questionable (knee)
  • Aaron Wiggins – Questionable (Achilles)
  • Jalen Williams – Questionable (hip)

SAC

  • Devin Carter – Questionable (illness)
  • Doug McDermott – Questionable (elbow)
  • Malik Monk – Questionable (illness)

Three Big Things

  1. Double Big – If Chet Holmgren returns tonight, this will be a good test for the double big lineup. Isaiah Hartenstein should be the Domantas Sabonis assignment, while Holmgren will have to stick onto Keegan Murray. In addition, the Kings can also trot Jonas Valanciunas out there to compete with the Thunder’s size. But as we’ve seen in the past, the Thunder would likely welcome the Valanciunas minutes with open arms.
  2. Perimeter Defense – The Kings are a mid-range oriented team. They score 60.7% of their points from 2-point range (8th in the league) and just 29.3% of their points from 3-point range (23rd in the league). For comparison, the Thunder are league average at 58% of their points coming from 2 and 42% coming from 3. That’s to be expected when two of your main offensive engines are Sabonis and mid-range king DeMar DeRozan. In addition, if Malik Monk plays, he always seems to give the Thunder fits as a microwave scorer.
  3. First to 60 – The Thunder are one of three teams in the league that still have a chance to hit the 60-win mark (Cleveland and Boston are the others). A win tonight gives them the first place ribbon in that race.

Thunder vs. Milwaukee Bucks preview (NBA Cup Final)

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (20-5, 1st in the West) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (14-11, 5th in the East)
  • When: Tuesday, 17 December 2024 at 7:30pm CST
  • Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
  • Offensive Rating – MIL: 113.6 (11th) / OKC: 115.2 (8th)
  • Defensive Rating – MIL: 112.3 (13th) / OKC: 103.1 (1st)
  • Net Rating – MIL: 1.4 (15th) / OKC: 12.1 (1st)

The Set-Up

The Emirates NBA Cup has been fun. I don’t know if I’d be saying the same thing if the Oklahoma City Thunder weren’t in the NBA Cup Finals. But still, it has worked. We monitored those group-play games pretty intensely, especially the last day of group play. And then watched with playoff fervor for the quarterfinal and semifinal games. It’s been competitive. It’s been TV-worthy, It’s been what the NBA envisioned a mid-season, single-elimination tournament would look like. Except it features two small-market teams. As an article on NBA.com pointed out in a preview of the Thunder/Rockets semifinal game, this “may not have been the marquee NBA Cup semifinal the league was hoping for…” The NBA has really done a shit job of featuring their young talent, outside of force feeding everyone Victor Wembanyama.

For the Thunder, the NBA Cup has done exactly what the NBA refused to do for them this season: it’s allowed the national audience to see this team in the brightest of lights. The Thunder forced their way in the national spotlight. The NBA knows they messed up by not putting this team in the Christmas line-up. As consolidation, the NBA flexed the two Thunder v. Cavs match-ups in January to national TV. All the Thunder can do from here on out is force you to watch them.

This is the first, of now, three meetings this season between these two teams. They split their season series last year. Before that, though, Milwaukee had won 5 in a row, dating back to Feb. 2022.

Betting Info

  • Line: OKC -4.5
  • O/U: 214.5

Injury Report

OKC

  • Ousmane Dieng – OUT (finger)
  • Alex Ducas – OUT (back)
  • Adam Flagler – OUT (finger)
  • Chet Holmgren – OUT (hip)
  • Nikola Topic – OUT (knee)
  • Jaylin Williams – OUT (hamstring)

MIL

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo – Probable (knee)
  • Damian Lillard – Probable (calf)
  • Khris Middleton – Probable (illness)
  • Liam Robbins – Questionable (ankle)

Three Big Things

  1. Who guards SGA? – Defensively, the Milwaukee Bucks are not designed to cover someone like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They don’t have any serviceable big-wing defenders. Taurean Prince, Andre Jackson Jr, and Khris Middleton are either too slow, not big enough, or too injured to cover SGA. Damian Lillard, Gary Trent Jr., and AJ Green are barbecue chicken. Milwaukee is probably going to deploy an “everybody keep their eyes on Shai” defense and hope he passes it to someone else for a shot. Look for Jalen Williams to get loose a little in this game. 
  2. 3-point defense – Weirdly, the 3-point shot has been one of the best offensive engines for the Bucks this season. They are third in the NBA in 3-point percentage at 38.9% and feature two of the top-6 players this season in 3-point percentage (Prince at 51.6% on 3.6 attempts and Green at 47.6% on 5.2 attempts). And there’s always Dame, who can catch fire at any moment. The difficulty in guarding the Bucks is having to choose between team-guarding Giannis or hoping their 3-point shooters have an off-night. Knowing the Thunder, they will roll the dice (VEGAS PUN!) on hoping the Bucks have an off-night from the perimeter.
  3. High-pressure test – This is essentially a neutral site Game 7. Giannis and the Bucks have won a Game 7 in the Finals before. The Thunder are at the beginning of their pressure-filled journey .This will be a good test for them and will give Mark some data-points for future high pressure situations.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Thunder preview (Game 8 of 82)

  • Cleveland Cavaliers (3-4) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (4-3)
  • When: Wednesday, 08 November 2023 at 7:00pm CST
  • Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
  • Offensive Rating – CLE: 107.0 (27th) / OKC: 114.0 (11th)
  • Defensive Rating – CLE: 109.9 (11th) / OKC: 113.6 (20th)
  • Net Rating – CLE: -2.9 (18th) / OKC: 0.4 (15th)

The Set-Up

The NBA is crazy sometimes. You could play a team twice in a span of two weeks and see a completely different team on the floor each time you play them. On October 27th, the Thunder played a Cavs team in Cleveland that was missing both Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen. Oklahoma City had to launch an amazing comeback in the last 2 minutes of that game to overcome a 10-point deficit in what was probably their most exciting game of the year.

Conventional wisdom would tell you the Cavs probably stand a better chance today because of the addition of the two starters that were injured in the previous game. But, Cleveland has weirdly not played well this season on the offensive end. They are 27th in offensive rating and have a negative net rating. The twin tower experiment seems to be languishing a bit and spacing for the guard duo of Donovan Mitchell and Garland is severely lacking. That could be something or it could be nothing. Seven games is an extremely small sample size and the Cavs rode this same line-up last season to a 51-31 record. OKC is also getting over an injury bug and may be a little different than the team Cleveland faced with the addition of Jaylin Williams to the rotation.

Injury Report

OKC

  • Ousmane Dieng (wrist) – Questionable
  • Luguentz Dort (hip) – Questionable
  • Kenrich Williams (back) – Out

CLE

  • Ty Jerome (ankle) – Out
  • Sam Merrill (illness) – Out
  • Isaac Okoro (knee) – Out
  • Ricky Rubio (personal) – Out

Three Big Things

  1. Rebounding and the size problem – In the previous game against Cleveland, Evan Mobley and Chet Holmgren essentially negated each other because of their similar size and positionality. But with the addition of Jarrett Allen to the line-up, the Thunder may find themselves staring up at another behemoth in the paint. I love Jalen Williams at the 4, but these are the nights where the height disparity could rear it’s ugly head on the boards. It’ll be interesting to see if coach Daigneault plays bigger line-ups involving Holmgren and Jaylin (J-Will) Williams.
  2. Giddey redemption game – With Isaac Okoro likely being out with a knee injury, there may be a mismatch on the floor for Josh Giddey to take advantage of. He struggled in the previous game against the Hawks, as he never found his rhythm and missed a lot of shots that he normally makes. He was visibly frustrated throughout the night, especially with how great he performed in the 4th quarter of the Warriors game. I could see him taking either of Cleveland’s smaller guards into the post or driving by someone like Max Strus.
  3. The immovable object vs. the unstoppable force – Cleveland’s defense has been great this season. They are 11th in defensive rating and first in scoring. The Thunder have been pretty good on offense this season. They are 11th in offensive rating, first in free throw percentage, 6th in 3pt percentage, and 5th in FG percentage. Cleveland is 20th in pace, while the Thunder are 5th. Whoever exerts their will on their end of the floor will likely win this game.

Never Say Die

The Oklahoma City Thunder might well be “America’s Team”. It’s a moniker that is mostly referred to the Dallas Cowboys in the NFL. Back in the 70’s, the Cowboys were on TV so much that people recognized them as much as movie stars and US Presidents. So they were nicknamed “America’s Team”. The Thunder, sadly, are not on TV enough this NBA season to earn that title, but you can still feel that this team holds a special spot in the hearts of not only the United States, but the world.

Going back to the offseason, as Presti seemingly nailed yet another draft, our stars represented in FIBA competition, and the return of our own 7 foot unicorn, and the buzz around the team was deafening. Guys like Kevin O’Conner, Adrian Wojnorowski, JJ Reddick, and even former world renowned Thunder/Sam Presti hater Bill freaking Simmons were buying what the Thunder was selling and was letting the world know about it with seemingly preposterous claims. Top 4 seed in the West. 4 future All-Stars. 50 wins. Each proclamation making them sound more homer-y than any other Thunder fan. Granted, I myself predicted 51 wins and the 3 seed, but I admit I am an optimist in most aspects of life. However, 2 games into the season; we might be onto something.

The Thunder have played 2 games this season, one against the Chicago Bulls and one against the Cleveland Cavaliers. They couldn’t have been more different games. The 1st game the Thunder kept close throughout the 1st half, then asserted dominance throughout the 2nd half. The 2nd game the Thunder took the lead early on, and let the Cavs back in it.

The Cavs led by 10 with 2:37 left in the game, after back to back jumpers from infamous Thunder killer, Donovan Mitchell. Those 2 buckets gave him 40 on the night and it was seemingly all she wrote for the Thunder. But over the years the Thunder have developed much more than a winning and selfless culture, much more than skilled and intelligent players across each position, and so much more than a mentality of “we sell our soul for draft picks”.

They have developed a “Never Say Die” mentality.

Over the last 3 seasons we have seen it done time and time again, whether it’s 5 points, 10 points, 15 points, sometimes even 20 points, the players on the Thunder never roll over and quit. They always keep fighting and more likely than not, they close the deficit, if not win the game. And last night was no different.

Thunder @ Cleveland Cavaliers preview (Game 2 of 82)

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (1-0) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (1-0)
  • When: Friday, 27 October 2023 @ 6:30pm CST
  • Where: Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland, OH

The Set-Up

When you are a rebuilding team, you tend to latch yourself onto a couple teams in order to track your progress. When this rebuild first started, we usually kept track of teams like the Houston Rockets, Orlando Magic, and Detroit Pistons. Those were the teams that were on par with us in terms of where they were in their rebuild. But we also kept track of teams that were seemingly just getting out of their rebuild and looked to them as a sort of the mechanical rabbit in a greyhound race. Those teams, for the Thunder, were the Memphis Grizzlies and Cleveland Cavaliers.

The game tonight against the Cavaliers can feel like a bit of a measuring stick for this young Thunder squad looking to learn how to win consistently. The Cavs win totals over the past 5 seasons look very familiar for Thunder fans (19, 19, 22, 44, 51). It truly feels like the Thunder are a year behind the Cavs, in terms of development, and are looking to achieve a similar amount of success this season as the Cavs did last season.

Injury Report

OKC

  • Jaylin Williams (hamstring)
  • Kenrich Williams (back)

Cleveland

  • Jarrett Allen (ankle)
  • Ricky Rubio (not with team)

Three Big Things

  1. Fun match-ups – Both these teams are chock full of great young talent. Names that will likely be featured on All-NBA teams, All-Star teams, and All-Defense teams for the next decade. With Jarrett Allen being out, the Evan Mobley vs. Chet Holmgren match-up likely becomes a reality. And the SGA, Giddey, and Jalen Williams vs. Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell match-up is always an extremely fun one.
  2. Perimeter Defense – A lot like the Thunder has done over the past few seasons with the additions of Isaiah Joe, Davis Bertans, Lindy Waters III, etc, the Cavaliers have added a plethora of shooting to their team in the form of Max Strus, Georges Niang, and, former Thunder legend, Ty Jerome. Their offense is a lot of drive and kick, so the Thunder have to aware of how far they dip into the middle to help defend. The Cavaliers attempted 43 three-pointers in their last game and that trend likely won’t change.
  3. Giddey – Josh Giddey should be in line for a good game. He has shown a knack for taking advantage of smaller guards in the post and Cleveland boasts two of the them who aren’t very good defensively. Look for the Thunder for hunt for these match-ups throughout the game.

The Monster We Created

As I was sitting there watching Kevin Durant writhe in pain on the ScotiaBank Arena floor, I couldn’t help but wonder if part of the reason he was on the floor at all was because of the boogeyman we had all created. Why did Durant feel compelled to be on the floor, when it was apparent he wasn’t ready to be there at all? I couldn’t help but feel like his decision on June 10th, 2019 was still tied to his decision on July 4th, 2016.

I still feel a sense of disdain for the decision Durant made in the summer of 2016. The Oklahoma City Thunder had just lost a grueling seven game series to the Golden State Warriors. A series in which they led three games to one. This match-up had all the makings of a future epic rivalry. The upstart Warriors and the “on the cusp” Thunder. And while Durant had a decision to make that offseason, there was no way he would skip town now. Not when the team showed what it could do against this juggernaut. This was KD….the same guy that criticized LeBron James for making superteams…the same guy that lauded guys like Dirk Nowitzki and Kobe Bryant for being loyal to their teams through thick and thin.

But we all know what happened. The Warriors eventually lost to LeBron and the Cleveland Cavaliers in an epic Finals series, that saw the Warriors, themselves, blow a 3-1 lead. And then came the decision. It still sticks in my craw that Durant made that choice. He could have chosen any other team (literally, any other team because they all had a ton of money to spend that offseason). But to choose the team that had just beat you to make them become an almost unbeatable super-juggernaut was unfathomable in the minds of most Thunder fans in relation to the man we thought Durant was.

Continue reading

Thunder At A Glance – 08 November 2018

img_4063Topic: Thunder gives you a recap, in podcast form, of last night’s victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Maddie Lee (NewsOK) on why the Thunder wanted Russell Westbrook to join them on this road trip: “He’s a leader,” Thunder coach Billy Donovan said. “It gives him an opportunity here to get treatment while he’s on the road. I think he can help those guys from the bench and locker room, talking to them, spending time with them. I’ve always said this about him: People see him play, but they don’t see a lot of the things he does behind closed doors.” Continue reading

Thunder @ Cavaliers Preview (Game 10 of 82)

okc logo at cavs

  • When: Wednesday, 07 November 2018 at 6:00 pm CST
  • Where: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH
  • TV: FSOK
  • Radio: WWLS The Sports Animal (98.1 FM, 640 AM, 930 AM (Spanish))
  • Line: OKC -6.5 | O/U: 218
  • Off Rating: OKC – 107.3 (18th) | CLE – 106.4 (20th)
  • Def Rating: OKC – 105.4 (5th) | CLE – 117.2 (30th)

Adversity is a word that has become synonymous with the Oklahoma City Thunder this season. Whether it’s Andre Roberson needing an extra two months of rehab due to a stitch. Or Russell Westbrook missing all of the training camp and the first two games of the season. Or Paul George having to deal with another weird injury (numb forearm last season, numb foot this year). Or Westbrook going down with a sprained ankle after the Thunder were on their current roll of five wins in a row.  Continue reading

NTTB Rumblings (Valentine’s Day Edition) – 14 February 2018

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To all my readers: I thunderyou!

Royce Young (ESPN) on Cleveland’s new bunch getting the best of the Thunder this time: “It’s one of James’ many remarkable traits that a roster halfway turned over just a week ago can show up and play cohesively, moving the ball to open players and generating connected offense. James is so adaptable, and carries a gravity that forces teammates to fit, that the Cavs can remodel their team on the fly, whereas it took the Thunder three months and 30 games to start to figure it out.”

Heather Koontz (Thunderous Intentions) with some hilarious Thunder-related Valentine’s Day cards.  Continue reading

Cavs vs. Thunder preview (Game 58 of 82)

cavsvsokc logo

  • When: Tuesday, 13 February at 7:00 pm CST
  • Where: Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, OK
  • TV: TNT/FSOK
  • Radio: WWLS The Sports Animal (98.1 FM, 640 AM, 930 AM (Spanish))
  • Line: OKC -1.5 | O/U – 221.5

The Set-Up: The last time the Oklahoma City Thunder faced the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Thunder were in the midst of an 8-game win streak, while the Cavs were looking more like a lottery team instead of a title-contending team.  Continue reading