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Thunder @ Sacramento Kings preview (Game 72 of 82)

Posted on March 25, 2025 by Alex Roig

Oklahoma City Thunder (59-12) at Sacramento Kings (35-36)
When: Tuesday, 25 March 2025 at 9:00PM CST
Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
Offensive Rating – SAC: 115.7 (7th) / OKC: 118.9 (4th)
Defensive Rating – SAC: 115.1 (20th) / OKC: 106.2 (1st)
Net Rating – SAC: 0.6 (15th) / OKC: 12.7 (1st)

The Set-Up

To understand how dominant the Thunder have been this season, you have to look at things from the perspective of player advanced metrics. When you look at Player Impact Estimate (PIE) and filter it for players who play at least 24 minutes a game, the Thunder have 3 players on that list (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Jalen Williams). They are the only team to have three players in the top 35. As far as Offensive Rating, the Thunder have eight players in the top 50 of players who have averaged over 20 minutes a game (SGA, Chet Holmgren, Aaron Wiggins, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Hartenstein, Cason Wallace, and Dub). Defensively, though, is where they shine. The Thunder have eight players in the top 16 for Defensive Rating for players who have played at least 20 minutes per game. For Net Rating, that number goes 8 players in the top 15. It would almost be an understatement to say this team has been historically good this season.

This is the third meeting of the season between these two teams. The Thunder have won the first two meetings in convincing fashion, once in Sacramento and once in Oklahoma City. The average margin of victory for the Thunder in those two games was 27.5.

Betting Info

Line: OKC -9.5
O/U: 231.5

Injury Report

OKC

Ousmane Dieng – OUT (calf)
Alex Ducas – OUT (quad)
Chet Holmgren – Questionable (hip)
Ajay Mitchell – OUT (toe)
Nikola Topic – OUT (knee)
Cason Wallace – Questionable (knee)
Aaron Wiggins – Questionable (Achilles)
Jalen Williams – Questionable (hip)

SAC

Devin Carter – Questionable (illness)
Doug McDermott – Questionable (elbow)
Malik Monk – Questionable (illness)

Three Big Things

Double Big – If Chet Holmgren returns tonight, this will be a good test for the double big lineup. Isaiah Hartenstein should be the Domantas Sabonis assignment, while Holmgren will have to stick onto Keegan Murray. In addition, the Kings can also trot Jonas Valanciunas out there to compete with the Thunder’s size. But as we’ve seen in the past, the Thunder would likely welcome the Valanciunas minutes with open arms.
Perimeter Defense – The Kings are a mid-range oriented team. They score 60.7% of their points from 2-point range (8th in the league) and just 29.3% of their points from 3-point range (23rd in the league). For comparison, the Thunder are league average at 58% of their points coming from 2 and 42% coming from 3. That’s to be expected when two of your main offensive engines are Sabonis and mid-range king DeMar DeRozan. In addition, if Malik Monk plays, he always seems to give the Thunder fits as a microwave scorer.
First to 60 – The Thunder are one of three teams in the league that still have a chance to hit the 60-win mark (Cleveland and Boston are the others). A win tonight gives them the first place ribbon in that race.

Thunder @ New Orleans Pelicans preview (Game 71 of 82)

Posted on March 26, 2024 by Alex Roig

Oklahoma City Thunder (49-21, 2nd in the West) @ New Orleans Pelicans (44-27, 4th in the West)
When: Tuesday, 26 March 2024 at 7:00pm CST
Where: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
Offensive Rating – NO: 117.0 (10th) / OKC: 118.6 (5th)
Defensive Rating – NO: 111.4 (6th) / OKC: 111.4 (5th)
Net Rating – NO: 5.6 (4th) / OKC: 7.3 (2nd)

The Set-Up

For months, the big four in the Western Conference has been the Thunder, the Nuggets, the Timberwolves, and the Clippers. It was almost a forgone conclusion that those would be the top-4 seeds in the West. But lo and behold, a challenger has arisen from the Gulf Coast. For much of the first half of the season, New Orleans’ season was viewed as a disappointment. Injuries to key contributors like Trey Murphy III and Jose Alvarado had sapped a lot of the depth the Pelicans had. Zion Williamson was once again fighting the battle of the bulge…and losing. The turning point in the season for Zion (and for the Pelicans) was an embarrassing 133-89 loss to the Lakers in the In-Season Tournament semifinals that saw Zion get outscored, outworked, and outclassed by LeBron James.

Since then, New Orleans has gone 32-16 and Zion has reworked his game and his body to become his most optimal self. Williamson is noticeably slimmer than he was earlier in the season and his game has transformed itself into more of a point-Zion trajectory. He handles the ball more off boards and is second on the team in assists per game. The lost weight has allowed Zion to look more like Duke Zion and has made him a force to be reckoned with anytime he is remotely close to the basket.

This is the third and final meeting of the season between these two teams. On November 1st, Oklahoma City squandered an early 22-point lead in the first game to end up on the losing end of things, 106-110. The Thunder returned the favor in late January, handling the Pelicans easily in New Orleans, 107-83.

Magic Numbers

To lock up the 10th seed (play-in guaranteed) – 0 (Locked In)
To lock up the 6th seed (playoffs guaranteed) – 5

Betting Info

Line: OKC -1.5
O/U: 223.5

Injury Report

OKC

None

Dyson Daniels (knee) – OUT
Brandon Ingram (knee) – OUT

Three Keys Things

Rebounding – I know, I know. The Thunder have gotten better at rebounding in the 2nd half of the season. And, yes, the Thunder have slowly proven that if they can beat you at nearly every other aspect of the game, the rebounding becomes a moot point. But against a team like New Orleans, those 2nd chance points can tilt the game in their favor. The Pelicans are a top-10 team in 2nd chance scoring and the Thunder, of course, are still one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Jonas Valanciunas has always terrorized the Thunder on the boards and tonight should be no different. It’s making sure that the Pelicans don’t make the Thunder pay on those 2nd chance opportunities.
SGA – Ever since the MVP discussion has gotten louder, SGA’s game has, unfortunately, petered off. Be it fatigue, wear & tear, injury, how teams are defending him, or all of the above, SGA just doesn’t feel like he has the same gear as he did pre-ASB. Hopefully it’s just a slump and he can work himself out of it. Many people forget that Jokic went through an early season slump that had many asking if he was out of shape from the celebratory off-season. Every player goes through periods like this. It just so happens that it’s louder for SGA because of where we’re at in the season.
Prime-time Match-Up – Despite New Orleans’ slow start to the season, they’ve been one of the best teams in the league over the past 2 months. And the Thunder have been about as consistent as they come. As we head into the playoffs, these are the types of match-ups that can serve as “canaries in the coal mine” to see where the Thunder are mentally heading into their first postseason as a collective.

Thunder @ New Orleans Pelicans preview (Game 45 of 82)

Posted on January 26, 2024 by Alex Roig

Oklahoma City Thunder (31-13, 2nd in the West) @ New Orleans Pelicans (26-18, 6th in the West)
When: Friday, 26 January 2024 at 7:00pm CST
Where: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
Offensive Rating – NO: 117.9 (8th) / OKC: 119.9 (4th)
Defensive Rating – NO: 112.7 (8th) / OKC: 111.6 (4th)
Net Rating – NO: 5.2 (7th) / OKC: 8.3 (2nd)

The Set-Up

If you follow me on Twitter at all, you know the disdain I have for Bally Sports. Their parent company, Sinclair, bought Fox Sports after the Disney merger for an exorbitant amount and then thought that they could bully the various cable networks and streaming services into paying a high dollar amount to show sports on their various platforms. It blew up in their face and eventually they filed for bankruptcy. But my issue is that watching games on the TV allowed many Oklahomans to fall in love with the first iteration of the Thunder. Not everyone can afford to go to games. Not everyone lives close to OKC. So the TV was their way to connect with the team.

In sports, generations are measured in 3-5 year bursts. Take a snapshot of your team now and see how it looks in 3-5 years. More than likely, it is completely different. Because of all the Bally-caused blackouts, there are a lot of people in Oklahoma, of all ages, that haven’t been able to “grow” with this new iteration of the Thunder since the rebuild started. To me, I’ll always have a sore spot for Bally for preventing a “generation” of fans from not being able to connect with this team from it’s inception.

But fast forward to the news that has been coming out over the last couple of weeks. First, Bally Sports is belly-up and only covering regional sports for the rest of this season. Secondly, Amazon seems to be making a play to somehow show the games on their platform (that is still being worked out). And, thirdly, the team, itself, came to an agreement with Bally to show all the rest of the Friday games on local cable TV throughout the state (and neighboring states). Tonight is the first game for that arrangement. The Friday games will only be shown on local TV. They will not be shown on Bally. For information regarding what channels will be showing these games, please visit: https://www.nba.com/thunder/watchlocal

This is the 2nd of three meetings this season between these two teams. The Pelicans won the first meeting early in the season, 110-106.

Betting Info

Line: NO -1.5
O/U: 239.5

Injury Report

OKC

Olivier Sarr (hip) – OUT

Zion Williamson (foot) – Questionable

Three Big Things

Combating Size – The New Orleans Pelicans are a big team. Their front court rotation of Jonas Valanciunas, Zion Williamson, Cody Zeller, and Larry Nance Jr. are all big and beefy and their wings (Brandon Ingram, Herbert Jones, and Trey Murphy III) would all be power forwards if this was the 90’s. The Thunder struggled with New Orleans’ size as the game wore on the last time they played. It’ll be interesting to see how the Thunder will combat that. They may need to use the blueprint that was used against the Minnesota Timberwolves the last couple times the team has played them. Also, this is Chet’s second time playing against Valanciunas and Chet usually does a good job of adjusting once he has a scouting report on someone.
Defending the 3-point line – When you think of the Pelicans, you think of Zion’s inside prowess and Ingram’s mid-range game. But what makes New Orleans dangerous is their 3-point shooting. On the season, the Pels are shooting 38.6% from the 3-point line, which is 4th best in the league. While 3-pointers don’t account for a huge part of their offense, if they are hitting them, it makes them almost unguardable.
Jalen Williams – SGA will be preoccupied a lot of the evening with Jones and Murphy. While SGA does okay against the Pels, it’s usually an inefficient night by his standards. This may be a game where Jalen Williams can go to work against a 2nd-rate defender instead of Pels main big wings.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Toronto Raptors preview (Game 5 of 82)

Posted on November 4, 2014 by Alex Roig

When: Tuesday, 04 November 2014 at 6:30 PM CST
Where: Air Canada Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Four games in and the Oklahoma City Thunder sit at a record they haven’t seen since their inaugural season in 2008. That much was to be expected with the rash of injuries the team has faced. What wasn’t expected was the effort with which the team has exhibited. In the first two games of the season, against top flight teams in the Western Conference, the Thunder were in the game well into the 4th quarter. On Saturday, against a Denver Nuggets team that was looking to rebound from a disappointing, injury-plagued season last year, the Thunder executed almost perfectly throughout the game to get their first victory of the season. The return of Reggie Jackson from an ankle injury was supposed to provide the team with the playmaker they had been missing since Russell Westbrook went out early in the 2nd game of the season. Instead, Jackson’s return brought the team back to its iso-ball ways and they were blown out by the Brooklyn Nets.

It’ll be interesting to see how Scott Brooks adjusts to this. On the one hand, you now have a ball-handler that can threaten a defense (Jackson). But on the other hand, your best bet to win with this lineup is to completely muddy up the game by slowing it down and hope that it becomes a defensive battle.

The Thunder and the Toronto Raptors split their two meetings from last season, each winning on the other’s home court. Each game went down to the 4th quarter, with the average margin of victory being 3.5 points.

The Opponent

The Raptors come into the game with a 2-1 record. Last year, they won the Atlantic Divison, and made their first trip to the postseason since the 2007-08 season. They battled their division rival, the Brooklyn Nets, and lost in 7 games. But the spark had been lit and the fan resurgence in Toronto was reminiscent of the Vince Carter days. The team is led by one of the better backcourts in the league, with PG Kyle Lowry and SG DeMar DeRozan. The duo is averaging nearly 42 points and 5 steals a game. The other wing, Terrence Ross, is averaging almost 10 points a game, but has the ability to go off for big numbers, as evidenced by his 51 point explosion last season against the Clippers. Up front, Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas make up one of the more athletic and versatile front courts in the league. Off the bench, the Raptors are a mix of young veterans like Greivis Vasquez, Patrick Patterson, Lou Williams, and James Johnson.

Probable Starting Line-up

Toronto Raptors

PG – Kyle Lowry
SG – Terrence Ross
SF – DeMar DeRozan
PF – Amir Johnson (Game-time decision due to ankle)
C – Jonas Valanciunas

Oklahoma City Thunder

PG – Sebastian Telfair
SG – Reggie Jackson
SF – Perry Jones
PF – Serge Ibaka
C – Steven Adams

3 Keys to the Game

1. Perimeter Depth and Fouls – Lowry and DeRozan are personal foul magnets. You look at them and you might get called for a foul. Between the both of them, they are averaging 21 free attempts per game. That’s on some Durant/Westbrook levels right there. With only 2 guards on the entire roster (Andre Roberson is out with a sprained foot) look for the Raptors’ wings to attack Jackson and Telfair.

2. Shut Down the Lane – The Thunder have been employing an effective zone lately. If there was ever a team to trot that out on, it would be the Raptors. Collectively, they only shoot 42.5% from the field and 25.4% from deep.

3. Ugly it Up – The biggest mistake that can be taken from the Nets’ game was trying to keep up with them. The reason the Thunder’s first 3 games were close was because we slowed the game down and slogged it out. With Jackson back in the fold, we relaxed defensively and tried to run offensively, which back-fired on us.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Toronto Raptors preview (Game 69 of 82)

Posted on March 21, 2014 by Alex Roig

When: Friday, 21 March 2014 at 6:00 PM CST
Where: Air Canada Centre, Toronto, Ontario

Rewind back to this point last season when we were not only keeping track of the Thunder’s record, but also keeping track of the Raptor’s record. Because of the James Harden trade at the beginning of last season, the Thunder held the Raptors first round pick, which was Top 3 and 15-30 protected. At this point last season, it was known that the Raptors weren’t making the playoffs. The only question was where the Raptors would be picking in the 2013 NBA Draft. Well, the Thunder ended up with the 12th pick and they selected Steven Adams with that pick. Fast forward to this season, and the Raptors are the No. 3 seed in the East. If that pick would have somehow been moved to this season, the Thunder would have had to wait another season for a possible lottery pick. Thank goodness Rudy Gay happened to the Raptors last season.

This will be the 2nd and final meeting of the season between these two teams. The Raptors beat the Thunder on Dec. 22nd, 104-98. In that game, the Raptors used a 15 point advantage in the 4th quarter to turn a 9-point deficit into a 6-point victory. The Raptors had 5 players that scored at least 13 points, while, for the Thunder, only Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook scored in double figures.

The Opponent

The Raptors’ season could be broken down into two phases: With Rudy Gay and Post Rudy Gay. In the first 19 games of the season, the Raptors were 7-12 and looking like a lottery bound team. Then they traded Rudy Gay to the Sacramento Kings. Since then, they are 31-17 and one of the top defensive teams in the league. They allow only 97.5 points per game, good for 5th in the league. They are led by Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Lowry has become one of the better offensive point guards in the league and DeRozan has become a much better scorer in Gay’s absence. Terrence Ross is hot and cold, but if he gets hot, he has the ability to score many points in a short time. Up front, Amir Johnson is a double double waiting to happen, and Jonas Valanciunas is just now tapping into his potential. The Rudy Gay trade provided the team with much of their fire power off the bench and leads to a much balanced team.

Probable Starting Line-Up

Toronto Raptors

PG – Kyle Lowry
SG – Terrence Ross
SF – DeMar DeRozan
PF – Amir Johnson
C – Jonas Valanciunas

Oklahoma City Thunder

PG – Russell Westbrook
SG – Andre Roberson
SF – Kevin Durant
PF – Serge Ibaka
C – Steven Adams

3 Keys to the Game

1. Pick and Roll Defense – Kyle Lowry does a great job of penetrating in the lane and using his strength to score in the paint or rack up fouls on the opposing team. His PnR with Amir Johnson is one of the better ones in the league. And if the defense collapses, Terrance Ross (who shoots over 40% from 3-point territory) and DeMar DeRozan are waiting on the wing. A lot like the Lakers game, this may be a game where Roberson’s perimeter defense helps the Thunder out.

2. Rebounding – The Raptors aren’t necessarily a great rebounding team, but their big wings and active interior players can get their hands on a lot of loose balls.

3. Last Team Standing – The Raptors are the only team the Thunder have not beat this season. True, they only play them twice due to the Raptors being an Eastern Conference team. But, beating every team in the league at least once is a feather in the cap in my books.

Toronto Raptors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder preview (Game 27 of 82)

Posted on December 22, 2013 by Alex Roig

When: Sunday, 22 December 2013 at 6:00 PM CST
Where: Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, OK

There was once a time when Oklahoma City Thunder fans really cared about the Toronto Raptors’ record. Not only would we scour the box scores for our games, but we’d also look at the Raptors’ games. Reason being, of course, because we owned the Raptors’ pick in the 2013 draft as part of the James Harden trade. The restriction was that the pick had to be between selections 4-14. Luckily the Raptors missed the playoffs and with that pick, the Thunder selected Steven Adams. Fast forward to this season, and we could really care less about Toronto’s record. The Thunder have beat the Raptors 3 straight times spanning the last two seasons.

The Opponent

The Raptors are team that you could term, “in flux”. The hired Masai Ujiri as general manager to take this middle of the road franchise, blow it up, and quickly rebuild it, like he did with the Denver Nuggets. His latest big move was to trade Rudy Gay and his $17.9 million dollar price tag (and possibly $19.3 million dollar next season if he opts in) to the Sacramento Kings for bit parts, most of whom are expiring after this season. That clearing of cap space will come in handy next season and beyond. But in the now, the Raptors are a bad team. Their back court is led by PG Kyle Lowry and wings Terrence Ross and Demar Derozan. All three players are talented, but are inefficient and need a high volume of shots to get to their averages. The front court is one of more promising ones this side of Detroit in the Eastern Conference. Jonas Valanciunas and Amir Johnson are threats for a double double every time they step on the court. The bench play is a lot like the team itself, which is to say, not very good.

Probable Starting Line-Ups

Toronto Raptors

PG – Kyle Lowry
SG – Terrence Ross
SF – DeMar DeRozan
PF – Amir Johnson
C – Jonas Valanciunas

Oklahoma City Thunder

PG – Russell Westbrook
SG – Thabo Sefolosha
SF – Kevin Durant
PF – Serge Ibaka
C – Kendrick Perkins

3 Keys to the Game

1. Rebounding – Toronto is a terribly inefficient team from the perimeter. Their wing players who average at least 10 minutes per game combine to shoot 39.9% from the field. Lots of misses means lots of rebounds. Valanciunas and Johnson are adept at grabbing rebounds, especially offensive rebounds (grabbing 5.3 offensive rebounds per game between them).

2. Bench play – Toronto’s bench is veteran laden, but really lacking when it comes to anything offensive. This may be a time to take over the game as the Thunder’s bench has been humming lately.

3. Complacency/Trap Game – This game has all the makings of a trap game. Playing at home, against an inferior opponent, having just played the rival Spurs, and not playing again until the prime time tilt against the Knicks on Christmas. All a bad team needs is hope. It’s Christmas season, but let’s not be in a giving mood tonight.