Yesterday, I was busy. So busy, in fact, that I didn’t have time to do my favorite “work, but not work” activity, which is to scroll through my Twitter timeline. When I did finally have some time to myself, I went to my adult pacifier and opened up my Twitter app. And, my word, was it a shit show. Listen, I get it. Sometimes a passionate fanbase can lend itself to hyperbolic statements from time to time. But, in the words of the youths: Bruh…stahp!. It was one bad game. Yes, it was against Houston. The team we’ve formulated this weird Twitter rivalry against ever since the James Harden trade. The team that probably killed the Thunder’s best chance at winning a championship (I’m looking at you, Pat Bev). But it was, honestly, just a weird vibes game. The Thunder had no energy from the start and Houston had a player that went supernova (Aaron Holiday). In an 82-game season, it’s going to happen from time to time.
The picture of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looking disappointed on the bench was turned into a call for the GM’s job, the coach’s job, and the trading of every player not named SGA. Building a contender takes time (years). The Thunder are 2-3 over their last 5 games. They lost to the No. 1 seed in the West by three points, the No. 4 seed in the East by 4, and then to Houston. In the process, they beat the In-Season tournament finalist Lakers by 23 and the Mavs in Dallas by 6. This team is honestly ahead of schedule and progressing just fine. Patience in a virtue, not just in life, but also in fandom. Woo-sah, people.
This is the fourth and final meeting this season between the Thunder and Warriors. The Warriors won the first meeting in Oklahoma City, while the Thunder won that last two in the Bay Area.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -2.5
O/U: 236.5
Injury Report
OKC
None
GSW
Gary Payton II (calf) – OUT
Three Big Things
Rebounding – The ugly rebounding monster is rearing it’s ugly head again. After a couple of weeks of improved rebounding, the Thunder fell off the wagon, losing the rebounding battle 30-53 on Wednesday. Every attempt for OKC to come back in that game was thwarted by a back-breaking offensive rebound by Houston and by Super Saiyan Aaron Holiday. The Warriors are one of the better rebounding teams in the league, so the Thunder will need to be hyper-focused on making sure the rebounding battle isn’t too unbalanced.
Tre Mann – I’d be remiss if I didn’t talk about the minutes Mann gave the Thunder on Wednesday. Thought to be lost to the abyss that is lack of developmental minutes, Mann came in and performed extremely well on both sides of the court. If teams are going to completely slack off of Josh Giddey, this may be the opportunity for the Thunder to try a new look at times in the game with Mann in as the de facto point guard. Orrrrrr, he could go back to the bench and play “victor cigar/blowout loss” minutes. It’ll be interesting to see how Coach Daigneault moves forward in this situation.
Chris Paul – As we head towards an important arena vote on December 12th, I just want to give my flowers to the man who was OKC’s first professional superstar…even as a rookie. Paul’s rookie and sophomore seasons were played in OKC as a member of the OKC/NO Hornets and his passion for the game spilled over into the fan base pretty quickly. We’ve all had a love/hate relationship with CP3 over the years, but there’s no doubt the importance he’s had on Oklahoma hoops.
The come-up has been something to marvel for these teams that were bottom feeders just a few seasons ago. The Minnesota Timberwolves, Orlando Magic, and Oklahoma City Thunder were bottom 5 in the league just a couple of seasons ago. Now, all three of the teams listed are either at the top of their conference or in second place. In addition, teams like Houston and Indiana have become extremely competitive and have the possibility of moving up in the standings as the season progresses. The cycle of change in the NBA is as consistent as the four seasons. Teams at the top now will inevitably be at the bottom in a couple of seasons. And visa versa. So here’s to the upcoming era of these teams for the next couple of seasons.
Season Series: This is the first of four meetings between the Rockets and Thunder this season.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -2.5
O/U: 226.5
Injury Report
OKC
Ousmane Dieng (G-League assignment) – Not Available
HOU
Jock Londale (illness) – Questionable
Victor Oladipo (knee) – OUT
Amen Thompson (G-League assignment) – Not Available
Cam Whitmore (G-League assignment) – Not Available
Three Big Things
Giddey – Our point guard is averaging 1 assist per game over the last 3 games. He played a season low 16 minutes in the Thunder’s last game and seems to be struggling with his confidence. I know he has a lot going on in his personal life, but he has to play better. While the team has been successful despite Giddey’s erratic play, a normal Giddey type game could boost this team up even more. Maybe Mark Daigneault will find a line-up that can fit more to Giddey’s strengths when SGA goes to the bench. Maybe something like Giddey, Chet, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins/Kenrich Williams. Shooters and defenders around Giddey.
Pace – Houston is one of the slower paced teams in the league, while OKC is one of the higher paced teams. Both teams also do a good job of limiting turnovers. That said, if OKC can play their brand of basketball and cause Houston to turn the ball over, it should help facilitate their transition opportunities and shift the game towards their style of play.
Big man battle – The match-up we’ve all been waiting for. Chet vs. Sengun. On Twitter, Houston and OKC fans can be a bit contentious towards each other, and one of the main sticking points is Alperen Sengun. Houston fans love to point out the fact that OKC gave Sengun up in a draft day deal and that he is going to be one of their core pieces moving forward. OKC loves to point out the fact that Sengen is a traffic cone on defense and the Thunder still own the Rockets’ future for the next few seasons. The reality, as always, is somewhere in the middle. Sengun has been great this season, leading the Rockets in scoring (21 ppg) and rebounding (9.2), while being on a team that is 5th in defensive rating. But the Thunder have a better record, are further along in their rebuild, and still have a ton of assets (to include multiple first and second round picks from Houston). In addition, while channeling my inner Iron Man from the first Avengers movie, “We have a Chet”.
Expectations. The curse of becoming good. The “rebuilding team” narrative that plagued OKC for the past three seasons is now being replaced by the complaining culture when a team isn’t winning every game that it plays. “Josh Giddey doesn’t fit with this team.” “Mark Daigneault doesn’t know how to coach in close games.” “Is Lu Dort an anchor on the offense when he isn’t hitting his 3-point shot?” Et cetera. Et cetera.
But this is the natural progression in the NBA. If you are building through the draft, the progression is usually a couple of seasons of bad basketball, which gives you the young players you need to build off of. Then you have a couple of seasons of figuring out how to win consistently in the regular season (This is where we’re currently at). Then you hopefully have a couple of seasons of playoff experience. Then, if you’re lucky, you become a contender. It’s a process. People look at the finished product that is the Denver Nuggets, but forget that Aaron Gordon is in his 10th season, Nikola Jokic is in his 9th, and Jamal Murray is in his 8th. It takes time and it takes patience.
Season Series: This is the first of four meetings between the Lakers and Thunder this season
Betting Info
Line: OKC -5.5
Spread: O/U 233.5
Injury Report
OKC
None
LAL
Rui Hachimura (nose) – OUT
Jaxson Hayes (elbow) – Questionable
Jarred Vanderbilt (heel) – OUT
Gabe Vincent (knee) – OUT
Three Big Things
Protect the paint – The Lakers are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league. They are dead last in 3-point attempts and 3-pointers made and are 28th in 3-point percentage. They get most of their points in the paint (49.4%, which is 2nd in the league). This will be a game where Chet Holmgren’s defense may have a huge impact in how the Thunder do.
SGA – The lights normally shine brightest when the Lakers are playing and that’s when SGA shines. Even when the Thunder were rebuilding, the Thunder (and SGA) would usually have great games against the purple and gold.
LeBron – We rarely get to see LeBron in OKC. Over the past few seasons, he’s either been hurt or he’s been “hurt” when the Lakers make their trip to OKC. I’m glad the Thunder are now relevant enough to the King to grace us his presence in OKC.
The NBA is crazy sometimes. You could play a team twice in a span of two weeks and see a completely different team on the floor each time you play them. On October 27th, the Thunder played a Cavs team in Cleveland that was missing both Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen. Oklahoma City had to launch an amazing comeback in the last 2 minutes of that game to overcome a 10-point deficit in what was probably their most exciting game of the year.
Conventional wisdom would tell you the Cavs probably stand a better chance today because of the addition of the two starters that were injured in the previous game. But, Cleveland has weirdly not played well this season on the offensive end. They are 27th in offensive rating and have a negative net rating. The twin tower experiment seems to be languishing a bit and spacing for the guard duo of Donovan Mitchell and Garland is severely lacking. That could be something or it could be nothing. Seven games is an extremely small sample size and the Cavs rode this same line-up last season to a 51-31 record. OKC is also getting over an injury bug and may be a little different than the team Cleveland faced with the addition of Jaylin Williams to the rotation.
Injury Report
OKC
Ousmane Dieng (wrist) – Questionable
Luguentz Dort (hip) – Questionable
Kenrich Williams (back) – Out
CLE
Ty Jerome (ankle) – Out
Sam Merrill (illness) – Out
Isaac Okoro (knee) – Out
Ricky Rubio (personal) – Out
Three Big Things
Rebounding and the size problem – In the previous game against Cleveland, Evan Mobley and Chet Holmgren essentially negated each other because of their similar size and positionality. But with the addition of Jarrett Allen to the line-up, the Thunder may find themselves staring up at another behemoth in the paint. I love Jalen Williams at the 4, but these are the nights where the height disparity could rear it’s ugly head on the boards. It’ll be interesting to see if coach Daigneault plays bigger line-ups involving Holmgren and Jaylin (J-Will) Williams.
Giddey redemption game – With Isaac Okoro likely being out with a knee injury, there may be a mismatch on the floor for Josh Giddey to take advantage of. He struggled in the previous game against the Hawks, as he never found his rhythm and missed a lot of shots that he normally makes. He was visibly frustrated throughout the night, especially with how great he performed in the 4th quarter of the Warriors game. I could see him taking either of Cleveland’s smaller guards into the post or driving by someone like Max Strus.
The immovable object vs. the unstoppable force – Cleveland’s defense has been great this season. They are 11th in defensive rating and first in scoring. The Thunder have been pretty good on offense this season. They are 11th in offensive rating, first in free throw percentage, 6th in 3pt percentage, and 5th in FG percentage. Cleveland is 20th in pace, while the Thunder are 5th. Whoever exerts their will on their end of the floor will likely win this game.
Oklahoma City Thunder (1-0) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (1-0)
When: Friday, 27 October 2023 @ 6:30pm CST
Where: Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland, OH
The Set-Up
When you are a rebuilding team, you tend to latch yourself onto a couple teams in order to track your progress. When this rebuild first started, we usually kept track of teams like the Houston Rockets, Orlando Magic, and Detroit Pistons. Those were the teams that were on par with us in terms of where they were in their rebuild. But we also kept track of teams that were seemingly just getting out of their rebuild and looked to them as a sort of the mechanical rabbit in a greyhound race. Those teams, for the Thunder, were the Memphis Grizzlies and Cleveland Cavaliers.
The game tonight against the Cavaliers can feel like a bit of a measuring stick for this young Thunder squad looking to learn how to win consistently. The Cavs win totals over the past 5 seasons look very familiar for Thunder fans (19, 19, 22, 44, 51). It truly feels like the Thunder are a year behind the Cavs, in terms of development, and are looking to achieve a similar amount of success this season as the Cavs did last season.
Injury Report
OKC
Jaylin Williams (hamstring)
Kenrich Williams (back)
Cleveland
Jarrett Allen (ankle)
Ricky Rubio (not with team)
Three Big Things
Fun match-ups – Both these teams are chock full of great young talent. Names that will likely be featured on All-NBA teams, All-Star teams, and All-Defense teams for the next decade. With Jarrett Allen being out, the Evan Mobley vs. Chet Holmgren match-up likely becomes a reality. And the SGA, Giddey, and Jalen Williams vs. Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell match-up is always an extremely fun one.
Perimeter Defense – A lot like the Thunder has done over the past few seasons with the additions of Isaiah Joe, Davis Bertans, Lindy Waters III, etc, the Cavaliers have added a plethora of shooting to their team in the form of Max Strus, Georges Niang, and, former Thunder legend, Ty Jerome. Their offense is a lot of drive and kick, so the Thunder have to aware of how far they dip into the middle to help defend. The Cavaliers attempted 43 three-pointers in their last game and that trend likely won’t change.
Giddey – Josh Giddey should be in line for a good game. He has shown a knack for taking advantage of smaller guards in the post and Cleveland boasts two of the them who aren’t very good defensively. Look for the Thunder for hunt for these match-ups throughout the game.
Oklahoma City Thunder (0-0) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (0-0)
When: Wednesday, October 19th, 2022 at 7:00 PM CST
Where: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
And so it begins. Another season of Oklahoma City Thunder basketball. This is the time of year where hope springs eternal. Can the Thunder make it to the play-in tournament? Sure. Could Shai Gilgeous-Alexander be an All-Star this year? Sure. Will Jalen Williams make some noise in the rookie class? Hell yeah. And for you tank aficionados, can the Thunder lose enough games to get the highest odds for a certain generational Frenchman? In the words of former Thunder legend Russell Westbrook, why not?
To kick things off, the Thunder open up the season on the road against one of the off-season’s mystery teams: the Minnesota Timberwolves. The all-in trade for Rudy Gobert this offseason catapulted the Timberwolves into the “contender or pretender” narrative for this season. Will Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns be a harmonious twin tower combination or will one of them eventually get played off the floor in meaningful games?
Injury Report
OKC – Chet Holmgren – OUT (R foot – Lisfranc surgery recovery)
MIN – Eric Paschall – OUT (L ankle/Achilles tendinosis)
Three Big Things
Starting Line-ups – Thunder coach Mark Daigneault has made a point this season to be more secretive about his starting line-ups leading into games. Minnesota’s front court may force Daigneault to get a little creative with his starting line-up today. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is likely the starter from the center position. But the options for who starts at the PF position may be a mystery. Does Daigneault want Aleksej Pokusevski going up against Gobert or Towns on the defensive end? Or does Daigneault want to exploit Towns’ issues on the defensive end and go with a small-ball line-up with Jalen Williams starting at the 4? Or maybe we go completely bonkers and start Ousmane Dieng at the 4 to compete with Minnesota’s size up front. Many options and many questions.
SGA – The preseason was nullified for Gilgeous-Alexander due to an MCL sprain. Thankfully, the injury will not keep SGA out for any regular season time. Coach Daigneault at practice yesterday confirmed SGA is a full go and has no minutes restrictions heading into tonight’s game. The All-Star campaign for SGA starts tonight. It will be interesting to see how quickly SGA meshes with all the new parts on the team this season.
Surging Sophomores – The quartet of 2nd year players for the Thunder (Josh Giddey, Tre Mann, JRE, and Aaron Wiggins) have all come into this year with high expectations. Giddey appears to be straddling the line of superstardom with his ability to break defenses down and get into the paint at will. Mann seems well on his way to being one of the premier scoring guards off the bench this season. And JRE and Wiggins have glue guy/key role player written all over them.
Prediction: Minnesota wins a close one 111-104 as their size proves to be the deciding factor late in the game.
Oklahoma City General Manager Sam Presti (left) and Vice President of Basketball Operations Will Dawkins (right) meet with the media after the 2022 NBA Draft. (Credit: Alex Roig)
The Oklahoma City Thunder did something in this past draft that they haven’t done since they started this rebuild in 2019. Instead of acquiring more future first round picks, they consolidated a couple of picks from their asset chest in order to move up to take the prospect they wanted. In this case, the prospect was Ousmane Dieng. And the cost was three future first round picks. All three of the picks the Thunder gave up were heavily protected (lottery or more) for the 2023 NBA Draft, and those protections stretched out for the next 2-5 years. In essence, the Thunder traded the three worst first round assets they had for a player they really wanted.
In all, the Thunder have 13 possible first round picks over the next five drafts (2023-2027). Some of those picks will have value as draft picks and some of them will have value as trade bait. But every first round pick the Thunder have will have some sort of valuation, which is big to Thunder GM Sam Presti. When the Thunder traded the 16th pick in the 2021 NBA Draft to the Houston Rockets for two future firsts, many questioned if Presti was getting a little too asset-collection happy. After that draft, Presti was asked about trading what turned out to be Alperen Sengun for two future firsts. “It was just, it was a valuation of the asset and I think over time, we’ll be able to figure out different ways to utilize those. There’s really nothing more to it than that. It was just way above the line for the general value of that pick, and we’re going to probably make that decision most of the time.”
In this article, I wanted to look at the value of the 13 first round picks the Thunder have over the next five drafts. With that said, this is going to be perceived valuation based on the normal cycle teams go through in the NBA. I don’t have a crystal ball and can’t foresee things like injuries and future signings. These valuations are based on the current premise of the teams involved and the general evolution of what happens to teams in these positions. Without further ado, here are the values of the Thunder’s 13 future first round picks from least valuable to most valuable.
No. 13 – OKC’s 2027 first round pick
No. 12 – OKC’s 2026 first round pick
I put these two picks together because I think they hold the least amount of value to teams looking to deal with the Thunder. The Thunder will continue to add young talent to this team over the next few drafts. Also, as OKC gets better, they will likely add valuable veterans to the team via trade or (I can’t believe I’m saying this) free agency. As the collective talent on the team goes up, so will the wins. And as the wins increase, the draft position will also weaken. The Thunder will likely start to be good in 2024. But they will likely start to be great around 2026 or 2027. Hence, their draft picks will not be of much value to other teams.
No. 11 – Houston’s 2026 first round pick (Top-4 protected in ’26. Converts into a ’26 2nd rounder if it isn’t conveyed)
While Golden State, Boston, Milwaukee, and Los Angeles battle for league supremacy, OKC, Houston, Detroit, and Orlando are currently battling for draft position. Houston and OKC started their rebuilds around the same time. As Houston also continues to stack talent via the draft, their trajectory is likely to be very similar to OKC’s. For that reason, their 2026 pick is likely to be later in the first round than early in the first round.
No. 10 – Los Angeles Clippers’ 2024 first round pick (Unprotected)
If you think it’s crazy that an unprotected pick is only No. 10 on this list, I don’t blame you. Hell, I initially had this as the least valuable pick in the Thunder’s asset chest. But the pick being unprotected kind of forced me to move it down a couple spots. The reason I hesitate on giving this pick too much value is because the Clippers (sans injuries) are likely to be awesome over the next season or two. Like, “best record in the NBA” awesome. Like, “pick in the late 20’s or worse” awesome. Even with Kawhi Leonard out for the season and Paul George out for most of the season, the Clippers still found themselves in the midst of the play-in tournament. With those two back in tow and a point guard tandem of Reggie Jackson and Paul Wall, the Clippers could be real good when this pick is ready to convey.
No. 9 – Miami’s 2025 first round pick (Lottery protected for ’25. If not conveyed in ’25, it will be unprotected for ’26)
I really debated on where to put this pick due to the unprotected nature of it in it’s 2nd year. But Miami has three things going for it: two of their stars are young (Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro), they are a well run organization from top to bottom, and Miami is a prime free agent destination. Based on those three things, I don’t think the Heat will bottom out any time soon.
No. 8 – Philadelphia’s 2025 first round pick (Top-6 protected in ’25. Top-4 protected in ’26 & ’27. If not conveyed by ’27, it converts into a ’27 second rounder)
No. 7 – Utah’s 2024 first round pick (Top-10 protected in ’24 & ’25. Top-8 protected in ’26. If it doesn’t convey by ’26, OKC will receive $890K in cash)
I put these two picks together because these two teams a very close to being in turmoil over the next couple of seasons. For as great as Joel Embiid has been in his career, he’s never made it to a conference finals. Add to the mix, James Harden, who isn’t really known as a bastion of team chemistry, and the Sixers are a disappointing season or two away from being in complete flux. In addition, Embiid’s possible shelf life as a large human being who has had foot issues in the past could rear it’s ugly head in the near future.
The Utah Jazz seem to be the basketball version of the guy who peaked in high school. When the Jazz made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs in Donovan Mitchell’s rookie season, everyone thought that was just the beginning. Fast forward four seasons later and the Jazz still haven’t made it out of the 2nd round of the playoffs, their salary sheet is bloated, and their starting center shut down the world for two years (and now resides in Minnesota). Quin Snyder stepped down this offseason and Mitchell said aloud that he doesn’t know where he goes from here. The hope for Thunder fans is that the Jazz go the Portland route and try to use the picks they obtained in the Gobert deal to build around Mitchell for the next couple of seasons.
No. 6 – OKC’s 2025 first round pick
As mentioned in the explanation for OKC’s 2026 and 2027 picks, the Thunder could be well into their upward trajectory in 2025. They are likely to not be as good in 2025 as they are in ’26 and ’27, but they will likely be “playoff” good. This will be Josh Giddey and Tre Mann’s fourth season and Chet Holgrem, Jalen Williams, and Dieng’s third season. If the jump in their games were to happen, it would likely coincide with the 2024-25 season. But why would this pick be so valuable? The Thunder have the option to swap their pick with either the Clippers (unprotected) or the Rockets (Top-10 protected). If the Clippers hit an injury bug or if the Rockets aren’t progressing in their rebuild as quickly as the Thunder, the Thunder could end up with a better pick than their record suggests.
No. 5 – Denver’s 2027 first round pick (Top-5 protected for ’27 – ’29. Converts to a ’29 2nd rounder if it hasn’t conveyed by then)
Great teams usually have a shelf life of 3-5 years. Denver will be heading into Year 3 of their current situation. Injuries to Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. completely derailed last season, but Nikola Jokic still found ways to dominate on his way to his 2nd consecutive MVP award. But with their financial flexibility capped out and injury concerns for two of their three stars moving forward, this pick may be conveying around the time this team’s shelf life may be coming to end (if not already there by then).
No. 4 – OKC’s 2024 first round pick
No. 3 – Houston’s 2024 first round pick (Top-4 protected. If it isn’t conveyed, the Thunder would get Houston’s 2nd rounder in ’24 & ’25)
I lumped these two picks together because so much of their value is going to depend on what happens in the 2023 NBA Draft. If either of these teams lucks into Victor Wembanyama, their outlook changes immensely.
No. 2 – Los Angeles Clippers’ 2026 first round pick (Unprotected)
There’s a possibility the Clippers could still be good after the ’25-’26 season. But there’s also a high possibility that four more seasons of wear and tear will have had their effect on Leonard and George, along with the Clippers’ bloated cap sheet and lack of assets, to lead them into a slow decline that culminates in a great pick in this draft.
