Game 1 – 111-110 Pacers – Indiana led for 0.3 seconds of the game. Thunder led throughout, but played “not to lose” late in the game which resulted in Indiana mounting a comeback and having the last meaningful possession of the game, which resulted in a go-ahead midrange jumper from Tyrese Haliburton. Series: 1-0 IND
Game 2 – 123-107 OKC – Thunder use a 19-2 run in the 2nd quarter to build up a 18-point halftime lead that Indiana could not overcome this time. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was masterful in this game, putting together a 34 point, 8 assist, 5 rebound, 4 steal, and 1 block stat line. Series: Tied 1-1
Game 3 – June 11th, 2025 at 7:30pm CST in Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN.
Gambler’s Corner
Line: OKC -5.5
O/U: 227.5
Game 3 Adjustments
1. More Aggressive Haliburton – Tyrese Haliburton is inherently an unselfish player. He would much rather prefer a democratic offensive system, instead of a totalitarian one where he’s the focal point. But that doesn’t mean that he can’t be that guy. In the fourth quarter of Game 2, Haliburton asserted himself a bit more and scored 12 of his 17 points on 5/6 shooting. Another surprising stat is that Haliburton hasn’t attempted a free throw in the Finals yet. While he’ll never be mistaken for a free throw merchant (3 attempts per game during the regular season), his lack of aggressiveness in the Finals has hurt the Pacers. I see that changing in Game 3.
2. Defending SGA – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 34 points on 11-21 shooting and it didn’t even look like he was trying too hard. Whether it was splitting weak double teams or just going at his primary defender (usually his country-mates Andrew Nembhard and Bennedict Mathurin), SGA was in an offensive zone that only great scorers get into. The Thunder scheme was to try to get SGA loose and moving downhill early in the set, sometimes up to 7 feet outside the 3-point line. If Indiana is going to try to play tighter and more physically on SGA, you could see a game where he becomes more of a distributor. But it could also backfire on Indiana and we could see SGA get to the free throw line at Dwayne Wade-levels in this game.
3. The Others – Whether it’s Indiana’s Others or Oklahoma City’s Others, the Others will decide who wins Game 3. Will we see a big Pascal Siakim game? Will Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren have a defining game in this series? Will Indiana’s shooting get hot playing in front of their home crowd? Can OKC’s bench travel with them to Gainbridge?
4. Game 3’s – This is going to be the immovable object versus the unstoppable force. Oklahoma City has lost their last two Game 3’s and was down by 29 points at one point in Game 3 against Memphis before coming back to win that game. Indiana has lost all three of their Game 3’s in these playoffs by an average of 14.7 points. Something’s got to give in this Game 3.
5. Dominant OKC – While the series is tied 1-1, Oklahoma City has clearly been the better team in this series. They’ve led for 94 of the 96 minutes so far and have been able to mount double-digit leads with ease throughout the series. Now to see if they can continue doing that on the road.
Let’s be honest: if you marked this Finals match-up down in October 2024, then your phone number probably either starts with a 405 area code or a 317 area code. I’m sure a lot of people will tell you that an NBA Finals without LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Nikola Jokic, or Steph Curry will be bad for the league. I’m sure they’ll wax poetic about superteams and dynasties of yore. They may even try to convince that these Finals will be the least watched finals ever. But don’t listen to them.
Every crop of superstars has to eventually meet it’s end. That LeBron and Curry have pushed their reigns out so far has been nothing short of impressive. Kudos to them for showing a new crop of stars how to take care of their bodies and push the bounds of longevity. But one era has to finish for another one to begin. And that is what these Finals may be representing. One, not necessarily built by superteams, but by team depth. One, not necessarily focused on the heliocentricity of one player, but on the ability to have five players on the court be 5-tool players. One, where the most important guy in the organization may not be the league MVP, but the league’s Executive of the Year.
Teams are being built differently now, and this may be the first view of how the NBA will look like under the new CBA. And there will be moans and groans about how great things were in the past. But, yet, somehow, someway, the league continues to grow. The social media hits continue to climb. The game crosses more and more boundaries as it continues to battle futbol (no, not football) as a truly global game. Soccer remains king throughout the world, but basketball continues to lie in wait as the prince that was promised. As the NBA landscape changes, these two teams, the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder, are the teams that will usher basketball into this new era. You may be watching the next great dynasty unfold before your eyes.
Regular Season Series
Game 1 – Dec. 26th, 2024 – Thunder win 120-114 in Indianapolis, IN – SGA scores a then career-high 45 points as Lu Dort and the Thunder defense holds Tyrese Haliburton to 4 points on 6 FG attempts. Isaiah Hartenstein pitched in with an 11 point, 13 rebound double-double and Jalen Williams added in 20 points.
Game 2 – Mar. 29th, 2024 – Thunder win 132-111 in Oklahoma City, OK – OKC outscores the Pacers by 20 points combined in the 2nd and 3rd quarters and uses that cushion to cruise to victory. SGA scores 33 points and get big time contributions from Luguentz Dort (22 points on 6/7 shooting from deep) and Isaiah Joe (19 points on 5/7 shooting from deep).
Three Big Things
1. Twins? – These two teams are definitely not identical twins. But they could be classified as fraternal twins with how similar they are. Here are just a few stats that show how similar these two teams are: After January 1st, 2025, the Pacers (33) and Thunder (41) had the most wins in the league during that time. They both have a 12-4 record in the playoffs heading into the Finals. They are No. 2 and 3 in points per game in the playoffs, being separated by only 0.3 of a point. They are No. 1 and 2 in pace in the playoffs. They are 1 and 2 in points off turnovers. They are No. 1 and 3 in fastbreak points. They both get back on defense, being No. 1 and 2 on both Opponent Points off Turnovers and Opponent Fastbreak Points. It’s scary how similar these teams are, statistically.
2. SGA – The biggest difference is that one team boasts the league MVP and the other doesn’t. SGA has been playing some of his best basketball these last few weeks. While he may have started off slow in the first few games of the playoffs, he has picked it up when it has mattered most, scoring 30 or more points in 11 of his last 14 games. Teams have used various schemes to try to stop SGA, but it has been all for naught. In the two regular season games this season, SGA has averaged 39 against Indiana.
3. Living in the Corner – Indiana’s offense in these playoffs has not just been predicated on Haliburton’s floor generalship, but also on the shooters making corner 3’s. Indiana has shot an amazing 46.9% on 9.2 attempts these playoffs. That is up from 40.6% during the regular season. A 16-game sample size is big enough to assume that it can continue for the Pacers in the finals. But if they revert back to their regular season norms, the Pacers could be in trouble.
Rewind back to Game 5 against the Dallas Mavericks last year. The Thunder were coming off a hard-fought, comeback victory in Game 4 on the road to tie that series at 2 games. The momentum was definitely in OKC’s favor. Heading back home for Game 5. This is what teams fight all regular season for: that home court advantage. And it started off good. OKC up 8-2 two minutes into that game. It quickly went downhill from there. Dallas was up by 12 entering the 4th quarter and went up by as much as 15 points. OKC fought back as best they could, cutting the deficit to 7, but ultimately couldn’t get over that hump as Dallas won the game 104-92.
When you juxtapose that to this series, it was nearly identical. The Thunder won a hard-fought, comeback victory in Game 4 on the road to tie the series at 2 games apiece. Momentum firmly on OKC’s side. And the Thunder started Game 5 off like they were trying to replicate the buzzsaw performance that was Game 2. OKC was up 12-2 with 7:58 left in the first quarter when Denver took their first timeout of the game. And then the fun stopped. Nikola Jokic went into MVP form, Jamal Murray remembered that he usually performs well in the playoffs, and the Thunder’s shooting dried up. Heading into the fourth quarter, the Thunder found themselves down by 8 points. Denver tacked on one more point to the lead with 10 minutes left in the game.
And then it happened. The Thunder weren’t going to let the demons from last season haunt them. The Thunder found their will. And that will’s name was Lu Dort. Three straight threes from Dort brought the Thunder within two with 6 minutes left to play. That momentum shift affected the whole team, but probably, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander the most. From that point, he was the Shai we’ve seen all season. The MVP. The defense locked in and the offense opened up. An Isaiah Hartenstein alley-oop dunk. A Chet Holmgren layup. A Jalen Williams 3. Some SGA middies. And SGA 3 (finally!). What was a 9-point deficit with 8:25 left in the game turned into a 7-point victory. This wasn’t going to be a repeat of last year. On to Game 6…with a 3-2 series lead.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -4.5
O/U: 216.5
Injury Report
OKC Nikola Topic – OUT (knee)
DEN DaRon Holmes – OUT (Achilles) Hunter Tyson – OUT (ankle)
Three Big Things
1. Decisiveness on Offense – While we’ve seen Shai Gilgeous-Alexander be Superman this season, we’ve also seen his possible kryptonite in this series against the Nuggets. When Denver forces SGA to think, even if it’s just for a second, it throws off his rhythm just enough for them to send one or two extra defenders his way and either get the ball out of his hands or force him into a live grenade situation. SGA has been most successful when he’s allowed to make a quick decision and play his natural game. This usually occurs when he’s off-ball, receives the ball on the move, and is usually accompanied by a high screen from Isaiah Hartenstein that allows him that sliver of space he needs to do what he likes. We’ve seen this late in the game in Games 4 and 5. It’s a possibility that by that point in the game he’s figured out the defense. It’s also a possibility that by that point, Denver is too exhausted to keep up with him and he takes advantage of them being a step slower. Whatever it is, he needs to do is earlier and more consistently throughout the game.
2. Desperation Jokic – If you guys thought Nikola Jokic was insufferable in Game 5 with all the foul-baiting and what not, you haven’t seen nothing yet. Jokic is a shark and when Denver gets into the bonus, it’s like he smells blood. It’s what great scorers do. SGA has 43 free throws in this series and Jokic has 41. But Jokic’s style of play and position lend him to hunt and seek contact more than SGA. If you thought the arm-locking and flailing was bad in Game 5, prepare yourself.
3. Close It Out! – Don’t put yourself in a position for a winner take all game. Too many variables can occur in those games that can negate home court advantage. An ankle sprain here, foul trouble there. If you are in the driver’s seat, go ahead and close it out. Will it be easy? Of course not. But the alternative is even more nerve-wracking.
I know, last year we were here too, but it just feels different this year.
Yes, we were the 1-seed last year too. But this year we werenβt fighting until the literal final game of the season to try to secure it.
The arrival is here, and if the first 2 games of the Thunderβs round 1 series against the Grizzlies are any indication, itβs going to be here for quite some time.
It really feels like this could be our year.
And you just got to tip your cap to Sam Presti, man.
You have the front runner for the MVP.
You have 3rd year player who is an All-Star.
You have another 3rd year player who was playing like an All-Star.
You have one of (if not) the best perimeter defenders in basketball.
You have a behemoth in the paint to fix every weakness that doomed us the year prior, in addition to being a playmaking maestro.
Then you have the deepest bench in basketball.
From the marksmanβs ability of Isaiah Joe, the offensive versatility (and the saving of basketball) of Aaron Wiggins, the hustle and toughness from Kenrich Williams, the steady play from Jaylin Williams, all the way down to 2nd round rookie Ajay Mitchell being able to play in the playoffs in his first year and actually have success.
Thatβs all well and good, and a big reason why the Thunder are favored to finally bring home the title. That glorious Larry OβB. Mm mm mm.
But I want to highlight the pieces off the bench that I believe are the most critical to the Thunder achieving the goal, and are as equally responsible for the dominant play we have seen in games 1 and 2 as anyone else of the roster.
Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso.
We at the Topic: Thunder podcast started calling Cason Wallace βThe Cookie Monsterβ early in the season, in reference to A: he always seemingly had his hand in the cookie jar. And B: he was one of the league leader in steals (steals = cookies for the uninitiated).
As the season went on, and we started getting healthier through a season of turmoil and adversity, Cason and Caruso got to play together more. Which was a pure joy for Thunder fans, and absolute nightmare fuel for opposing teams.
Thats when we took the name and morphed it into βCookies and Creamβ. The whole cookie thing is still relevant, but you got Cason doing these rim rattling dunks in transition (like one would dunk a cookie into milkβ¦ anyone???) and Caruso is picking peoples pockets, tipping passes, challenging the post, blocking shots, diving on the floor. And heβs an old(er) white guy, so of course heβs the cream. Cream of the crop when it comes to the games most disruptive defenders.
Now you know why we call them that, but what we saw last night was them in action like we havenβt seen before.
Entering the 4th, the duo had had a solid showing so far. Cason had 3 points, 1 rebound, and 1 assist, while Caruso had 8 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals.
The Grizzlies had just cut the lead to 11, and had a bit of momentum to try to trim away further.
Then Alex Caruso hit a 3.
A couple possessions later he forced a jump ball with Jaren Jackson Jr.
Immediately after, the Grizzlies get the jump ball, and Scottie Pippen Jr. is blocked by Cason.
On the other end of the floor, Cason blows by Zach Edey on a close out and finishes with a THUNDEROUS (see what I did there) flush.
A couple possessions later, Ja Morant drives to the right baseline to try to put up a shot over Isaiah Hartenstein, and ALEX CARUSO OUT OF NOWHERE comes to send his shot to the nether realm.
On the other end of the floor, Caruso crosses up JJJ, drives left shows the ball on a shot fake with his right hand, pivots and finishes the impressive floater.
A few possessions later, Caruso dives onto the floor to tip the ball out of Jaβs hand (MID CROSSOVER BY THE WAY?!?!) into Casonβs hands, who then outlets to Jalen Williams for the lay.
Alex Caruso checks out.
Thunder are now back up to a 20 point lead.
Thatβs just one example of the game wrecking abilities that Caso and AC have.
And as my oldest child who is now seemingly obsessed with the Mighty Ducks, it reminds me of another dynamic, game wrecking duo, that fed off the energy of the crowd.
Fulton Reed and Dean Portman.
Better known as the Bash Brothers.
When the Mighty Ducks were getting beat up, and run out of the rink, they looked to the Bash Brothers to tilt the game on its head. Their physicality and energy were contagious through the crowd and the rest of the Ducks, and it ended up being the spark that won them the game.
The Thunder havenβt yet needed Cason and Caruso in a win/lose playoff scenario, but the comparison is still on point.
When they come into the game, the defense steps up all across the floor.
In game 2 the tandem had a defensive rating of 88.2.
In game 1 they had a defensive rating of 65 (!!).
They just come in and do nothing but wreck the game, tear it to pieces. And whether itβs cutting into a lead or blowing it wide open, when they check in, they make things happen.
Call them Cookies and Cream, call them Allstate, call them Bash Brothers, I donβt care.
Whatever you call them, they are absolute game wreckers.
And they are going to be a huge reason the Oklahoma City Thunder will finally get that elusive Larry OβBrien trophy.
And who knows, maybe weβll celebrate with some Cookies and Cream.
Memphis Grizzlies (0-1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (1-0)
When: Tuesday, 22 April 2025 at 6:30pm CST
Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Series: OKC leads 1-0
TV: TNT/truTV/Max/FanDuelTV
The Set-Up
Utter dominance. This is what the Thunder did to Memphis in Game 1. In the first half, the Thunder scored as many points in the 2nd quarter as the Grizzlies did for the entire half. In the 2nd half, the Thunder scored as many points in the 3rd quarter as the Grizzlies did for the entire 2nd half. For the game, the Thunder had shooting splits of 50/35/93, while the Grizzlies managed a paltry 34/17/83. Memphis was the 2nd in total rebounds and 3rd in rebound% for the season. The Thunder outrebounded them by 11 in Game 1. The Thunder had 36 assists on 50 made baskets. The Grizzlies got turned over 24 times to the tune of 24 points off turnovers. They outscored Memphis 27-5 in fast-break points. It was a thrashing of monumental proportions. After the game, Grizzlies’ star Ja Morant had to reiterate, “We will never play that bad again.” Unfortunately for Morant, even if the Grizzlies get significantly better, it just may not be enough against the buzzsaw that is the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -14.5 O/U: 228.5
Injury Report
OKC Ousmane Dieng – OUT (calf) Nikola Topic – OUT (knee)
MEM Brandon Clarke – OUT (knee) Zyon Pullin – OUT (knee) Jaylen Wells – OUT (wrist)
Five Big Things
1. SGA – About the only thing the Thunder can improve upon in this game is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing better. He shot 4-13 overall and 1-7 from 3. While the Thunder didn’t necessarily need him to be the offensive engine that he is, if he plays a normal SGA game, it’ll open up the offense that much more. Which, for Memphis, has to be a terrifying thought.
2. Aaron Wiggins – If this is the Aaron Wiggins the Thunder are getting for the playoffs, start measuring the diameter of the Thunder players’ ring fingers. Wiggins didn’t even step foot on the court in the first 12 minutes of action. But as soon as he stepped on that court, a 3-pointer went in. After 21 minutes of action, he had registered 21 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists on 53/57/100 shooting splits.
3. Depth – The depth of the Thunder really showed in Game 1. It was just wave after wave of rotational NBA talent. Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, and Jaylin Williams would all be starters on a number of NBA teams. In Game 1, it was Wiggins that got the bench player of the game award. In Game 2, it could be Joe shooting the grip off the ball. In Game 3, it could be Kenrich Williams coming in and hitting some key 3’s in a tight road game. This team has been built brick by brick for this moment.
4. Quicker Pick & Roll Action – For Memphis, about the only thing that I could see working for them is quicker PnR action for Ja Morant. The PnR in the middle of the floor worked a lot better for Memphis than the action on the wings. This may mean benching Zach Edey and starting Marvin Bagley, who’s a little quicker on his feet. Giving Ja a roll man that is a little quicker than Edey may play more into Morant’s preference of pace, especially against the Thunder’s defense.
5. Dub – One of the biggest questions for the Thunder heading into Game 1 was how would Jalen Williams open up these playoffs. The expectations being heaped upon this third year player have been astronomical, but Dub came out in Game 1 and completely dominated to the tune of 20 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals and a block. He was the head of the snake in the run during the first 8 minutes of the 2nd quarter that basically put the game to bed. If this is the confidence Dub will be playing with throughout these playoffs, watch out now!
New Orleans was held to 28.1% shooting from deep, while OKC registered 47.2% from distance.
Lu Dort and Josh Giddey tied for the most 3-points made on either team with 4 each.
The Thunder forced 20 turnovers.
Game 4 Adjustments
Close-out Game – This is always the hardest game from a mental standpoint. Take into account that this is the Thunder’s first close-out game under this recent iteration. The only players on the team that have any sort of experience in close-out games are Mike Muscala, Bismack Biyombo, and Gordon Hayward. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Lu Dort were part of a Game 7 against Houston in the 2020 Bubble, but lost that game in close fashion. Psychologically, the Thunder have to be tougher than ever in order to avoid a let-down due to being up 3-0 in mostly dominant fashion. As we’ve seen in these playoffs, you don’t want to leave anything up to chance. If you can avoid playing games and avoid injuries, you do that if at all possible.
Continue playing your game – There hasn’t been any over the top performances by the Thunder players in this postseason. It’s been a hard-hat and lunch pail approach in these first three games. Force turnovers. Hunt the best shot. Focus defensively on the opponent’s top guys. Block another Trey Murphy III dunk attempt. Listen to the Coach of the Year. Rinse and repeat. Oklahoma City had a plan heading into this series and are executing it flawlessly. Any deviation from this norm could prove to be detrimental.
Watch out for shenanigans – The Pelicans will be in desperation mode. The refs, in an effort to see this series extended, may either allow more than usual contact or may have a quick whistle. Either way, the Thunder will have to be smart about how they defend and will need to keep their cool, which will eventually be tested.
Congratulations to the Coach of the Year, Mark Daigneault. – MVP next???
The Ultimate Disrespect – If you are wondering why the Thunder shunned Allie LaForce on the TNT post-game interview after Game 3 in favor of Nick Gallo, look no further than to what is happening tonight. The game tonight will be televised on NBATV….only if you have NBATV and only if you live outside of the OKC and New Orleans viewing area. Unfortunately, if you live in the OKC and NO viewing area and have NBATV, you will be blacked out from watching the game unless you have Bally Sports. If you are blacked out and chose not to get Bally Sports (such as myself), you will have to either illegally stream the game or watch it on a gamecast. This is so wrong, on so many levels. But, hey, we’ll remember that the next time you want to interview the guys and Nick Gallo is standing there waiting.
The Thunder’s starting line-up outscored the entire Pelicans team, 108-92, in Game 2.
Thunder forced 17 turnovers, while only coughing it up 8 times in Game 2.
Pelicans are shooting 26.7% from three in the series, so far. OKC is shooting 39.3% from three.
Game 3 Adjustments
Prepare for the zone – There was a point in the 2nd quarter of Game 2 where the Pelicans were looking for something to get them back in the game and deployed a zone. The zone has given the Thunder fits all season and it allowed the Pelicans to cut an 18-point lead to single digits. The Thunder adjusted by putting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at the top of the key and allowing him to hunt for avenues to get into the teeth of the defense. After a couple successful trips down the floor, the Pelicans reverted back to their more traditional defense and the zone wasn’t deployed again. With that said, you can bet the Pelicans will look at film and try to explore ways to successfully deploy the zone again.
Survive the initial onslaught – First road game for this team in the playoffs. There are bound to be nerves. It is almost inevitable that the Pelicans will get out to a quick start in either one or both of these next two games. Lucky for the Thunder, they’ve done the whole “get down early and eventually come back” thing throughout the entire season.
Adjust to the referees – The refs shouldn’t be affected by what players and coaches say after games. But refs are humans and they do watch games and replays after games. Did the Thunder flop on every one of the 8 offensive fouls that were called on the Pelicans in Game 2? No. Did they flop on some? (Kevin James with hands in pocket meme) I would bet my house the Pelicans don’t get called for 8 offensive fouls in a game the rest of the series. I would also bet something of value, but not as much as my house, that OKC will get hit with a flopping call sometime in these next couple of games.
Trey Murphy III – They say the 3-point shot is the great equalizer in basketball. For the Pelicans to have any chance in this series, they are going to have to find a way to get Murphy III more clean looks from three. That is what the Thunder have to prevent in New Orleans. Game 1 showed that New Orleans could “hang” with the Thunder if Murphy is being a threat. But in game 2, with Murphy completed muted, the Thunder were able to play a lot more freely defensively and blow the Pelicans out.
Pelicans shot 1/15 on corner 3’s, Thunder shot 3/10 from the same area.
Pelicans beat the Thunder 24-11 on 2nd chance points
Thunder beat the Pelicans 20-7 on fast break points.
Game 2 Adjustments
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – SGA had an okay game, by his standards. He scored 28 points, but was inefficient, shooting 46% from the field and 0 of 3 from deep. For the first three quarters of the game, SGA had 0 turnovers. In the fourth quarter, he had 3 HUGE turnovers. Additionally, three of SGA’s shots were blocked. Maybe it was nerves. Maybe it was the fact that the Pelicans’ defense was focused almost entirely on Shai. Maybe (hopefully) it was just a one-off. For game 2, I would like to see a more decisive Shai. Instead of stopping 8 feet from the basket to pump-fake and pivot in order to get Herb Jones or Trey Murphy III in the air, keep driving to the basket and force the refs to blow the whistle. More pick and roll action may be needed to get certain match-ups that are more geared towards SGA’s liking. When Jose Alvarado is in the game, that is the match-up that needs to be hunted. Same with CJ McCollum.
Trey Murphy – The Thunder cannot allow Murphy III to shoot that many threes. He almost single-handedly kept the Pelicans in the game when the Thunder made their runs. Murphy has the possibility of being the Pelicans’ best player in this series. The Thunder need to treat him as such.
Progress to the mean – Game 1 is entirely different if either team shoots closer to their regular season averages. I have more faith that Oklahoma City can reach those number when compared to New Orleans. Not only was the corner shooting atrocious for both teams, but the points in the paint were inefficient also. It’s a make or miss league, so hopefully making more tonight will lead to a Thunder victory.
Stop being loud on Thunder player free throws (BONUS) – Listen, I get it. SGA is our MVP and we want him to know how much we appreciate him. But, if we are loudly chanting “MVP” on first quarter free throws, I think it can throw anyone off their rhythm a bit. No one wants to miss the free throws where people are chanting “MVP” for them. Let’s wait until we are up by 8 with 22 seconds left to chant “MVP” then. Our guys will get enough distractions on their free throws when they hit the road.
Against all odds, against every expectation, prediction, and assumption: The Thunder are once again the #1 seed in the Western Conference.
And yet, it doesn’t really feel like it.
Sure, for us Thunder fans, it was a celebration (clap, clap, bravo) like we haven’t had in a long time. From the hilarious nature of seeding watch day, to the harrowing decimation of the Dallas Mavericks in the regular season finale, Thunder fans had/have a lot to celebrate. This is the same team after all, that was going through seeding watch day last year as well; for the 10 seed.
All year long the Thunder have faced and conquered seemingly every challenge that came their way.
But it still doesn’t seem like its enough… for some people.
Bill Simmons on his podcast could barely mention and congratulate OKC for making the 1 seed before he fell victim to an old habit of Thunder hatred, saying to his co-host Ryen Russillo definitively “OKC cannot beat the Lakers.”.
He’s not the only one who thinks that.
ESPN’s Mike Greenberg suggested on Get Up that the Lakers “should not play Lebron James, should not play Anthony Davis, they should tank the 7/8 game, they should take their chances Friday night, one and done, at home against Golden State or Sacramento and go in and play OKC (instead of playing Denver) in round one…” and as wild as that statement and ideology is, its actually began to hit an echochamber amongst the talking heads.
To Greeny’s credit, he did start the statment by saying “Give them all the credit in the world, its going to sound like I’m disrespecting them…” which kinda feels like whenever someone says “No offense, but….”
Well guess what Greeny? Offense taken. You do sound like you’re disrespecting them, because you are disrespecting them. And he’s not alone. It doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes or Nancy Drew to find someone that is picking the Thunder to not only lose in the playoffs, but to lose in round one… again.
It feels like people look at this team, they notice a couple things, and that’s what they make their assessment on. They see Shai’s (out of context, early in his career, in a different role) playoff stats, they see youth (combined age of 23.4 [youngest 1 seed in NBA history]), they see the size (or lack thereof).
I recoginize that I am not the most objective person, but I do have to objectively say that they couldn’t be further from the truth.
In fact, not only would I say that the Thunder have what it takes to make it out of the first round, regardless of who makes it out of the Play-in tournament. This team, dare I say, has all the makings of a team that could win the whole freaking thing.
In a West that’s as wide open as its ever been, the Thunder could have potentially broken the franchise record of 60 wins, if not for late season injuries to their two star players, I want you to ruminate on a question throughout the remainder of this article.
“Why not us?”
Lets dive in, shall we?
Numbers
You know the saying. Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t. And the numbers speak very highly of this young Thunder team.
3rd in Points per game: 120.1 3rd in Field goal percentage: 49.9% 1st in Three point percentage: 38.9% 4th in Free throw percentage: 82.5% (AND ONLY 17TH IN ATTEMPTS, WHERE IS THE FOUL MERCHANTRY IN THAT) 2nd in True shooting percentage: 60.8% 3rd in Effective field goal percentage: 57.3% 7th in (fewest) Turnovers per game: 12.7 1st in Steals per game: 8.5 1st in Blocks per game: 6.6 3rd in Offensive rating: 118.3 4th in Defensive rating: 111.0 2nd in Net Rating: 7.3 5th in Pace: 100.85 7th in Fastbreak points per game: 15.8 3rd in Fastbreak points (allowed) per game: 12.5 1st in Points off turnovers per game: 20.5 3rd in (fewest) Points off turnovers per game: 14.8 7th in Points in the paint per game: 52.5 7th in Points in the paint (allowed) per game: 47 2nd in Halfcourt offensive rating: 106.3 3rd in Halfcourt defensive rating: 97.3
I realize I threw a bunch of numbers and stats at you, and some of them may be confusing and out of context, but let me summarize this in three words: Them dudes good.
Allow me to elaborate.
VARIETY
One of the most dangerous things about this team is the many different areas that it excels in.
You need buckets? They are top 5 in scoring.
Opposing defenses building a wall to stop the drives? We are the best three point shooting team in the league.
Is the pace slow and possessions limited to the halfcourt due to the slowed down nature of playoffs? We’re top 5 in both halfcourt offensive and defensive rating.
Teams want to get up and down the floor? We are top 5 in pace, scoring fastbreak points, and limiting fastbreak points. Not to mention tops at steals AND blocks, so we will turn you over. Oh, and we are the best in the league at converting those turnovers into points.
You see what I’m getting at here? The Thunder excel at every single aspect of modern basketball.
So much so that what is considered one of our biggest weaknesses (rebounding) has DRASTICALLY improved. On the season we are 29th in offensive rebounds, 12th in defensive rebounds, and 27th in rebounds overall; post all-star break however things have changed. 24th in offensive rebounds, 8th in defensive rebounds, and 15th overall.
They still aren’t great numbers, but they have improved throughout the year, and prove to keep up those numbers going into the playoffs.
Shooters everywhere
Whenever the Thunder brought in renowned shooting coach Chip Engelland, all Thunder fans were worried about was the shooting improvements for Josh Giddey. Little did they know, that the entire team was about to become deadly from deep.
12 players on this Thunder squad are shooting at least 37% from 3. 10 players are shooting over 39%. 8 are shooting over 40%. 2 of them (Aaron Wiggins and Gordan Hayward) are shooting around 50%.
To put this into perspective, lets look at the 2022-2023 Thunder.
7 players shot over 37%. 6 players shot over 39%. 3 players shot over 40%. Only 1 player shot 50%, but sadly, Jared Butler only appeared in 6 games, so we do not count his contributions.
For years, Thunder fans have clamored (BEGGED!) the front office to go and acquire shooting, and at long last, they have.
They show up when it matters most:
This can be true in two different ways.
First: Clutch.
The Thunder have played in 38 games in the clutch. In those 38 games they are 24-14 for a winning percentage of 63.2%, which places them 5th in that category. All the things they do well as a team on a game to game basis, are also done well in the clutch. They score efficiently, they shoot the piss out of the ball, and they create turnovers. In a word, they are still a well oiled machine.
Part of this is because they have not one, not two, but three of the most efficient clutch performers. Of players who have taken 40 shots in the clutch (58 eligible players) Jalen Williams ranks #1 with 68.3%, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ranks #4 with 58.1%, and Chet Holmgren ranks 9th with 52.5%. That is quite literally ABSURD.
Second: They rise to the occasion
Down the stretch of the season, you saw some juggernauts, or at least seemingly superior teams, get shocked and beaten by the bottom feeders of the league. But from the time Shai and Dub returned from their injuries, this team did not play with their food, winning their last 3 games by a combined 105 points.
Not convinced? How about this stat then: The Thunder had the highest point differential in the Western conference and 2nd highest in the league at +7.4. Against the other teams in the top 10, the Thunder has the best record against teams in the top 10 going 19-8.
There is one more reason, however.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Yes, Shai has had a special season. He is the first player to do things that only Michael Jordan and Steph Curry have done in an NBA season. He leads the league in 30 point games. He lost the steals title in the final hour of the regular season. He has the efficiency of a wing player as a guard. He is still just 25 years old. His previous playoff experience was a mixed bag, first as a rookie playing against the dynasty Warriors and then as a 3rd option on a makeshift Thunder playoff team. All these things can be true, and they are. But so is this.
No matter who we are playing, we will have the best player on the floor.
Alright except for Jokic, maybe Luka. But we know Shai’s work ethic is maniacal. We know how much he likes to prove people wrong, put narratives to rest, silence his critics. I think Shai is going to come into these playoffs and just absolute dominate at every stage of the game.
He’s already been doing it all year, against whatever defender the opposing team wants to throw at him. He’s dropped 30, he’s dropped 40, he’s dropped defenders, he’s dropped game winning buckets, he has set up this expectation for us. This is his coming out party, this is the stage he needs to announce himself not only a star, or an up and coming player. Nah, bump that. This dude is a superstar, a transcendent talent, a skillset that is unique, a demeanor that does not waver. This is going to be a statement, an announcement, a coronation, an alert, and final notice that Shai is here at the top of the league, and he isn’t going anywhere. He has arrived.
And just like Shai’s arrival, so shall it be the Oklahoma City Thunder’s.
This team is built for the postseason. This roster is built for competition. This squad thrives in adversity.
They have every excuse not to win it all. They’re too young. They overachieved. They needed this loss. But all season long, this team has flipped the script on every excuse given to them.
Chet could have sat games, but he played all 82. Cason could’ve developed in the G league, like most rookies do. Instead, he also played rotational minutes in all 82 games. Isaiah Joe could have been just a 3 point shooter, but he’s also top-10 in charges taken. Jaylin Williams could have sulked in the fact he didn’t get much playing time early on, but, instead, he stayed with it and became one of the Thunder’s most impactful players post all-star break. Josh Giddey could’ve let his off court drama, and his ego get the best of him when things were at their worst. Instead, he changed his mentality and play style, and now, and he and the team are thriving. Aaron Wiggins could have let the fact that he was the 55th pick, or the fact that he was still catching DNP’s early this season affect his game, but he stepped up every minute he’s on the court and is now widely considered one of the most underrated players in basketball.
This team doesn’t care how many MVP’s are in the way. This team doesn’t care about how many games they have or haven’t played in the playoffs. This team doesn’t care about how young they are. This team doesn’t care about the haters, the expectations, the predictions, or the assumptions about them. This team doesn’t need your excuses.
They have what they need, and they’re ready to rise to the occasion once more in the quest for 16 wins.
And with every pass, dribble, three pointer, dunk, crossover, block, steal, and scream at the raucous crowd of Loud City, they will play the game like they belong here. They will play the game with dominance and defiance.
Last season, the play-in tournament had huge significance for the Oklahoma City Thunder because they were in it. The 40-42 Thunder went into the play-in as the 10th seed, facing the New Orleans Pelicans in the 9/10 match-up. The good guys won a close game, 123-118, as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and Lu Dort combined to score 90 points. Next up, they faced the loser of the 7/8 match-up, the Minnesota Timberwolves. The size of Minnesota overwhelmed the Thunder and they bowed out of the tournament after a 120-95 loss.
Fast forward nearly a year later, and the play-in tournament this season still has huge significance for the Thunder…but for different reasons. Instead of being participants, the Thunder are now at the top of the West, waiting to see who they will face in the first round. Here’s a look at the two play-in games and how the teams in them match-up against themselves.
Game 1 (7/8 match-up) – Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
When: Tuesday, 16 April 2024 at 6:30pm CST
Where: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
Season Series: Lakers won the season series 3-1
Dec. 7th – 133-89 (Los Angeles)
Dec. 31st – 129-109 (New Orleans)
Feb. 9th – 139-122 (Los Angeles)
Apr. 14th – 124-118 (Los Angeles)
The Set-Up
It may not seem like it, but this match-up has been brewing for a while now. If you remember back to the In-Season Tournament semi-finals in December, LeBron James and the Lakers completely embarrassed Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans. The reactions after this game were peak “does Zion even care?” and “does Zion want to play in New Orleans?”. Since that game, though, Williamson has taken it upon himself to get into better shape and to add more wrinkles to his game (point Zion). The Pelicans put together a good run in the second half of the season, but fell apart a little at the end due to Brandon Ingram’s injury. Ingram returned for the season finale against the Lakers, but the Pelicans lost and they plummeted to the 7th seed behind Phoenix.
Game 2 (9/10 match-up) – Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
When: Tuesday, 16 April 2024 at 9:00pm CST
Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
Season Series: Series tied 2-2, but Sacramento won the tie-breaker due to a better division record
Oct. 27th – 122-114 (Golden State)
Nov. 1st – 102-101 (Golden State)
Nov. 28th – 124-123 (Sacramento)
Jan. 25th – 134-133 (Sacramento)
The Set-Up
The NBA has to be salivating with these West play-in games. Not only did the Warriors and Kings match-up in one of the more memorable series in last season’s playoffs, but they’ve also had 3 consecutive meetings this year decided by one point. This game is literally “win or go home”. Does this game put the final nail in the Warriors’ coffin? Or does Sacramento go into an offseason with a plethora of questions after seemingly being on the path to contention? Whatever the result, it definitely makes for must-see TV. You can bet the Thunder will be watching.
