Current Streaks: CHA: 3-3 in their last 6 / OKC: 4-1 in their last 5
The Set-Up
The Oklahoma City Thunder have reached the point where the regular season doesn’t mean as much to them as it does to other teams. If anything, the regular season can actually be a deterrent to postseason success with the possibility of injuries and fatigue. Over the course of the last four weeks, the Thunder have played in four back to backs and have been involved in three “3 games in 4 nights” over that same timespan. Injuries to key rotation pieces have depleted their depth and OKC has actually looked a little uninspired during this timespan. This is a tired bunch, and the schedule doesn’t ease up until after February 4th, when they have multiple days off between games. It’ll be a grind until April, but this is a resilient bunch. They will do what they need to do to secure the top seed heading into the playoffs.
This is the 2nd and final meeting of the season between the Thunder and Hornets. OKC won the first meeting in Charlotte, 109-96, in a game that was a lot closer than the final score would suggest. Oklahoma City only led by 3 at halftime and needed one of their vintage defensive 3rd quarters to give them the separation they needed to coast in the 4th quarter. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished the game with 33 points and 7 assists and Chet Holmgren chipped in with 25 points and 8 rebounds.
Betting Info, presented by FanDuel
Line: OKC -15.5
O/U: 234.5
Injury Report
OKC
Brooks Barnhizer – Day to Day (ankle)
Alex Caruso – OUT (back)
Ousmane Dieng – OUT (calf)
Isaiah Hartenstein – OUT (calf)
Thomas Sorber – OFS (knee/ACL)
Nikola Topic – OUT (cancer treatment)
Jaylin Williams – OUT (heel)
CHA
Moussa Diabate – Probable (wrist)
Kon Knueppel – Probable (hip)
Ryan Kalkbrenner – OUT (elbow)
Brandon Miller – Probable (knee)
Mason Plumlee – OUT (groin)
Tidjane Salaun – Questionable (ankle)
Grant Williams – OUT (knee)
Three Big Things
3-point shooting – This goes for both defending the 3-point line and making 3-pointers. In their last 11 games, the Thunder have shot 29.6% from 3 in their losses and 37.2% from 3 in their wins. That’s an almost 8% difference. Bring that 29.6% up to about 35%, and some of those losses flip to wins. It’s definitely a make or miss league, even for the defending champs. On the other end of that spectrum, the Thunder have been on the bad side of some hot shooting nights by their opponents. And Charlotte is definitely a team that has candidates that can heat up from beyond the arc. Guys like LaMelo Ball, Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller, and Miles Bridges all average over 2.4 threes made per game and have that “get hot” ability.
Kon Knueppel – The likely Rookie of the Year gets his second crack at the Thunder. He’s had only four single-digit scoring nights as a pro, and OKC caused one of them, forcing Knueppel to shoot 3/10 from the field to go along with 5 turnovers. Everyone one of the those four single-digit scoring games were losses, so it would behoove the Thunder to make Kon’s night a nightmare.
Jalen Williams – Last night against the Suns was one of the better games Dub has put together, from start to finish, since coming back . He scored 23 on 9/13 shooting from the field, had four rebounds, seven assists, and hit a game-tying driving middy with 8 seconds left in the game. For the first time this season, it felt like Fourth Quarter Dub had entered the building.
All-Star Weekend is in the rear view. And all in all, it was a fun weekend for Thunder fans.
Cason Wallace helped bring Team Pau back from its early deficit to Team Detlef, and was then scapegoated for not being able to carry a team of top 3 picks back from the early hole it dug itself.
Chet Holmgren contributed to Team Jalen’s ultimate victory in a variety of ways. Layups, blocks, windmills. Just not lobs. Maybe just catch those for now, Chettar Bob.
Jalen Williams showed he is a 2-way demon, knocking down middies, 3-balls, spreading the ball around, being an on-ball pest, and off-ball menace. All in route to knocking down the game winning 3-pointer, showing the world what “Dub Time” is. Dub, indeed.
Then of course, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put on a show in his first (hopefully of many) starts in the All-Star game. The antithesis of his game was on full display. Instead of acrobatic finishes through contact and an assault of mid-range jumpers, it was an uncharacteristically scorching hot 7/10 shooting from the 3 point line and an array of high flying dunks, including a self alley-oop off the glass… IN TRAFFIC!
Yes, All-Star Weekend couldn’t have gone better for Thunder fans, sans Isaiah Joe being in the 3-point contest. And the weekend’s series of events is enough to get the fans excited for the return from All-Star break on Thursday against our rivals, the Los Angeles Clippers. But through the excitement of the break, people have forgotten that the Thunder may or may not have added the piece that takes this team from young and fun overachievers, to bonafide contenders in the Western Conference.
Last week, the Thunder…
SIGNED BISMACK BIYOMBO!
That’s right! We are getting Bizzy with it! With our big Biyombro, we will be standing on Bizness for 48 minutes. *angry emoji with smoke coming out of nose*
As excited as I am for Biyombo, because of his ability to fill a role and his ability to raise the overall vibes for any locker room, it’s another move that this article is based around.
The trade that sent Tre Mann, Vasilije Micic, and Davis Bertans to Charlotte in exchange for none other than Gordon Hayward.
This trade is already a sore subject for Thunder fans. Tre had become a fan favorite, from his highlight reel dunks and stepback, to his fun and vibey personality on the bench and online. There were many (yours, truly included) that were sad to see him go. He has done well in his opportunities with the Hornets since then, making it hurt just a little more.
Micic, while he hasn’t been as consistent, has flashed many moments that have Thunder fans envying the former Euroleague MVP for the playoff run. And then you have Bertans, who has been fine, I guess.
On the Thunder side, we haven’t as much seen Hayward in a Thunder jersey. But I’ve been watching some film on him from this season. Not as a Celtic or during the Obama administration in Utah. No, from the 2023-24 NBA season, just to clear things up. While the name isn’t as big, flashy, or coveted as some of the other names around the league, his tape tells me Hayward is going to fit this team seamlessly.
Playmaker:
Not including his rookie year, Gordo (gotta find a nickname for this guy, let me live) hasn’t averaged less than 3 assists per game. This season, before he got hurt, he was averaging 4.6 assists per game. Which would be 2nd highest in his career (and .1 more than Josh Giddey has…).
There’s not much flashy about Gorgon’s passing. He doesn’t really bring the ball up the court and he doesn’t try to pretend to be Steve Nash. While he doesn’t always make jaw dropping, high level reads, he is constantly moving the ball and often times creating scoring opportunities for his teammates as the secondary, or even, tertiary creator.
While he isn’t necessarily a maestro with the basketball, Hayward can more than hold his own as a playmaker.
He gets it done in a variety of ways. Off the drive, off the catch, touch passes, in transition, dump offs, entry passes, the whole shebang.
Despite what the video above would lead you to believe, Hayward’s passes don’t lead to buckets 100% of the time, I’m sorry to deceive you.
But what’s important, and why he fits with the Thunder in this regard is, the ball doesn’t stick with him. There is no record scratch. He isn’t a ball stopper. He simply gets the ball, he drives it, he shoots it, or he quickly makes a pass.
Based on the tape above he’s going to create a lot of easy looks for Chet, Dub, Ous, Wiggs, and Boom (Jaylin Williams for those uninitiated). But he’s also going to be able to put Shai, Giddey, and Dub in scoring, and playmaking scenarios just with his willingness and participation of moving the ball around.
Shut up and drive:
When you watch a guy like Shai or Jalen Williams, you always hear the commentators talk about how relentless they are with their straight line drives to the basket. Shai has led the league in total drives going on 4 seasons, and even in his first season with the team, he still ranked 10th in the league. Dub, has a bit more variety to his game with the willingness to shoot a higher volume from deep, but particularly in late game situations, the gearshift is on D for him as well.
If you watch Gordon Bombay (yeah, that one felt wrong) you can tell he’s cut from that same cloth. While he can’t even smell the exhaust from Shai’s tailpipe at 23.9 drives per game, he is not far behind from Dub (12.6) with 10.8 drives per game.
While he adds some variety to his game in post work, catch and shoot, etc., a lot of his playmaking, as evidenced by the video in the playmaking section, is dependent of his drives.
Even at age 33, Hayward is a strong driver to the basket.
It’s no wonder he is constantly driving, as the Warden (I saw it on Twitter/X, I’m not married to it) is shooting an impressive 69.3% at the rim this year. To put that into perspective, Shai is shooting 66.5%. Dub is shooting 66.3%. Chet is shooting 71.7%. And the finishing god squad of Cason, Ous, and Joe are shooting 72.8, 73.9, 76.5 respectively. And since you keep bugging me, Giddey is shooting 55.2%.
Cut to the chase:
Wiggs made his early career off of knowing how to cut to the basket. OKC has plenty other really good cutters. Dub, Cason, Kenny, and even Giddey have shown some juice as cutters this year.
He’s no Edward Scissorshands, but my Hayward son (you see it) is a stealthy good cutter, and sneaky effective at it. Snake eyes (yeah this is bad, just having fun with the last sentence) averages 1.47 points per possession, while shooting 75%, on cuts but only at a frequency of 4.5%. For perspective, Shai is averaging 1.67 PPP on 80.8% shooting on 2% frequency. The aforementioned Aaron Wiggins is shockingly averaging only 1.3 PPP on 64.7% shooting, but on a team leading 15.6% frequency.
Hayward is literally playing Fruit Ninja with NBA defenses.
LaMelo Ball is a phenomenal playmaker. But he is one man. The Thunder’s entire roster has some playmaking juice. Pair that with his basketball IQ and understanding of space, and you have a smart and opportune cutter to add to the death by 1000 basket cuts.
There are a lot of things to like about Hayward. His shooting, while percentages are a tad down at 36.1%, he is shooting 40.8% on catch and shoot 3’s, 41.2% from the corners, and 42.4% on open 3-point jumpers.
He is averaging almost 5 rebounds per game, which will help a bit with that side of things. As well as averaging 1.1 steals per game. With guys like Dort and Dub at the point of attack and Chet as the back line, Hayward should be able to generate a number of steals for this already stingy defense.
Overall, the fit is very nice. And the price for the trade, with the flexibility to possibly re-sign him moving forward, makes the deal a no brainer.
Gordon Hayward is the type of player that can add one more punch to the Thunder’s push to the finals.
And if all I’ve said above comes to fruition, that punch may just end up being a Haymaker.
Hmmm, Haymaker.
I LIKE IT.
Special shoutout to @derthun_ and @homahoops for showing me the ways of the force and video editing. Be sure to follow them for great Thunder content. As well as me @ThunderChats, and my podcast @OKCTopicThunder. Thunder up.
Consistency. Getting things done in a manner that become almost habitual. When it comes to winning basketball teams, consistency usually takes the form of performance over a certain amount of time. We always hear things like “This team is 8-2 over their last 10 games”. But to remain consistent over an entire 82-game season is not just the mark of a good team. It’s usually the mark of an elite team. Also a lucky one, at that.
There are only four teams in the league that have yet to have suffered a 3-game losing streak on the season. And those four teams consist of the top two teams in each conference. We’re almost 50 games into the season. That’s not an anomaly…that’s the trend for these four teams. Even through a hellish schedule, the Thunder have remained as consistent as possible in keeping pace in the West. With a little bit of rest in the horizon, the Thunder are in prime position to make a push heading into the playoffs.
This is the first meeting of the season between these two teams. They meet again on April 7th in Charlotte.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -16.5
O/U: 225.5
Injury Report
OKC
Isaiah Joe (sternal contusion) – OUT
Jalen Williams (ankle) – OUT
CHA
LaMelo Ball (ankle) – Doubtful
Three Big Things
Miles Bridges and PJ Washington – For some reason, these two players terrify me (and it’s not just because Bridges can get a little physical, if you know what I mean (I’ll be here all week)). Tweeners that can masquerade as small ball 5’s give the Thunder fits. And it always seems like these two players choose their games against Oklahoma City to turn into big-bodied Stephen Currys. If LaMelo Ball is out, I know these will be the only options for the Hornets and the Thunder’s defense will be keyed in. But still….
Run ‘Em and Attack the Paint – By most metrics, Charlotte is the worst defensive team in the league. They are a bottom-10 team in allowing the most points off turnovers, the most 2nd-chance points, and the most points in the paint. Surprisingly, for being such a young team, they are 22nd in pace. They are bottom-10 in turnover percentage. They are bottom-3 in true shooting percentage. Simply put, they are a bad team.
