Expectations. The curse of becoming good. The “rebuilding team” narrative that plagued OKC for the past three seasons is now being replaced by the complaining culture when a team isn’t winning every game that it plays. “Josh Giddey doesn’t fit with this team.” “Mark Daigneault doesn’t know how to coach in close games.” “Is Lu Dort an anchor on the offense when he isn’t hitting his 3-point shot?” Et cetera. Et cetera.
But this is the natural progression in the NBA. If you are building through the draft, the progression is usually a couple of seasons of bad basketball, which gives you the young players you need to build off of. Then you have a couple of seasons of figuring out how to win consistently in the regular season (This is where we’re currently at). Then you hopefully have a couple of seasons of playoff experience. Then, if you’re lucky, you become a contender. It’s a process. People look at the finished product that is the Denver Nuggets, but forget that Aaron Gordon is in his 10th season, Nikola Jokic is in his 9th, and Jamal Murray is in his 8th. It takes time and it takes patience.
Season Series: This is the first of four meetings between the Lakers and Thunder this season
Betting Info
Line: OKC -5.5
Spread: O/U 233.5
Injury Report
OKC
None
LAL
Rui Hachimura (nose) – OUT
Jaxson Hayes (elbow) – Questionable
Jarred Vanderbilt (heel) – OUT
Gabe Vincent (knee) – OUT
Three Big Things
Protect the paint – The Lakers are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league. They are dead last in 3-point attempts and 3-pointers made and are 28th in 3-point percentage. They get most of their points in the paint (49.4%, which is 2nd in the league). This will be a game where Chet Holmgren’s defense may have a huge impact in how the Thunder do.
SGA – The lights normally shine brightest when the Lakers are playing and that’s when SGA shines. Even when the Thunder were rebuilding, the Thunder (and SGA) would usually have great games against the purple and gold.
LeBron – We rarely get to see LeBron in OKC. Over the past few seasons, he’s either been hurt or he’s been “hurt” when the Lakers make their trip to OKC. I’m glad the Thunder are now relevant enough to the King to grace us his presence in OKC.
If you are writing a story about the come-up of a great young team, you always have to have the protagonist. The rival the team has to overcome to make it to the top of that mountain. For the Michael Jordan Chicago Bulls, it was the Detroit Pistons. For the Kobe/Shaq Lakers, it was the Sacramento Kings. For the Curry Warriors, it was Mark Jackson. For this iteration of the Thunder, we still don’t know who that team is. It could be the Orlando Magic. The San Antonio Spurs. Maybe the Houston Rockets.
Or it could be the team that we’ve already faced in a non-regular season scenario. These two teams faced off in the 2nd round game of the Play-In Tournament last season, with Minnesota out-dueling the Thunder on their way to a 120-95 victory. The Wolves were very physical and bested the Thunder in points in the paint, 58-30. The frontcourt tandem of Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns combined to score 49 points and grab 19 rebounds, while shooting 19 free throws.
Season Series – This is the first meeting this season between these division rivals.
Injury Report
OKC
None
MIN
Jaylen Clark (Achilles) – Out
Jaden McDaniels (ankle) – Out
Jordan McLaughlin (knee) – Out
Three Big Things
High stakes – Okay, so these may not be huge stakes. No one really cares about who’s number one in their conference 17 games into an 82-game season. I get it. But, man, would it feel good to be conference king for a day. If nothing else, a win gives you a leg up on a division/conference rival for future playoff seeding and knocks Minnesota out of the In-Season Tournament.
Big rotation – It’ll be interesting to see how head coach Mark Daigneault handles the big rotation tonight. We saw in the Philly game his willingness to play two bigs in Chet Holmgren and Jaylin Williams. What could be most interesting is the Naz Reid vs. Kenrich Williams match-up that I think we’ll see some tonight.
Shooting – I’ve got a secret for you guys. The Thunder, now hear me out, tend to do better when their 3-point shot is falling. I know, I know. Shocking! All kidding aside, the Thunder have turned into the quintessential modern NBA team. Most of their shots come from the 3-point line and in the paint. Only 7.6% of their points come from the mid-range. And while the Thunder do lead the league in 3-point percentage, when that shot isn’t falling, the offense can get very clunky. Players like Lu Dort and Cason Wallace, who started the season off hot, have now regressed to where they likely will be for the rest of the season. And if Isaiah Joe isn’t completely flame-throwing from deep, the offense looks even worse.
If we rewind back to the end of season press conference Oklahoma City Thunder general manager Sam Presti had, a couple of the prevailing themes came to the forefront. The first being the Thunder would not cut corners in order to get back to where they want to be. Two quotes stuck out to me when referencing this theme. The first being, “We’re running our own race. We’re not watching the clock. We know our time is going to come. We can’t predict when that’s going to be, but we’re up for the challenge here.” And the other being, “We’re closer to being the team we want to be this season than we were last season, but we’re still really far away from ultimately getting to the level we want to be at.”
The other theme was the fact the Thunder will likely wait until after the new CBA is signed during the 2023 offseason before diving into any real roster building outside of the draft. Presti harkened back to previous Thunder teams whose flexibility was basically nullified by the new CBA rules of the time.
But I would say what we can’t have happen is to be mid-stream, which has happened, and a brand new bouquet of rules is introduced that is not advantageous to where you are in your building process. One time, okay; two times, hmm; but not happening three times. So we have to be eyes wide open on what that really means. Like I said, if I was a fan right now I’d shut my ears because this is not interesting, but if you’re trying to run an NBA franchise in 2022 and beyond, in 20 of the 30 cities, you’re going to be tuned into the CBA, revenue sharing and TV deal. Those things really set the cast for how you operate.
If we take Presti at his word, then I don’t think the Thunder will be too interested in free agency and in the trade market this offseason and upcoming season. Instead, I believe this will be the last year where Oklahoma City will truly be in asset acquisition mode. We’ve heard the numbers before: OKC has 17 possible first round picks over the next five drafts, including this year’s draft. Is it possible to have too many first round picks for a period of time? Yes, if you don’t have a plan. But Presti laid out how some of those firsts may be used in the future. During the presser, he talked about the price of obtaining veterans to fill out the roster via trades. Said recent trades cost between one and two firsts for valuable veterans. If that is what the Thunder are going for, why not try to obtain the most valuable assets possible.
Recently, Russell Westbrook, currently of the Los Angeles Lakers, decided to purge some pictures from his Instagram account. One thing that was very noticeable from the purging: the only pictures that remained were those of his regular life and those of him in Thunder gear. All the Lakers, Rockets, and Wizards-related pictures were deleted. While some basketball players have a habit of deleting team-related pictures during the offseason, the fact that Westbrook kept his OKC pictures got people talking.
While it may be nothing, always remember that Presti does a ton of his work behind the scenes. The trade that sent Chris Paul to Phoenix was likely consummated, not in the 2020 offseason, but instead, likely, on January 31st, 2020 when the Thunder played the Suns in Phoenix. It was there where the widely circulated video of Suns GM James Jones telling Presti to follow him as they headed into the tunnel occurred. Between that game and their time in the Bubble in Orlando, I’m sure much, if not all, of the framework for that trade was constructed then. With both the Lakers and Thunder having so much time on their hands, what’s to say Presti and Lakers GM Rob Pelinka haven’t already had some preliminary discussions. And with Presti’s relationship with Westbrook, who’s to say all three parties aren’t keyed into what the next step may be.
This all begs the question: What does a trade for Westbrook look like for the Thunder? Before we jump into specifics, there are some caveats that need to be discussed. First off, the return from the Lakers will definitely need to be in the form of, at least, two future first round picks, both either unprotected or very lightly protected (no more than top-4 protected). Secondly, there likely needs to be an agreement between the Thunder and Westbrook before the trade even occurs on a buy-out amount. Westbrook is due to make $47 million next season. The Thunder do not have the ability to absorb that amount without risking their cap flexibility for future seasons. For a team that is in the middle of a rebuild, that is extremely important. The agreed upon amount needs to be that mid-point between what makes Westbrook happy and what keeps the Thunder’s cap sheet flexible. Westbrook making $47 million is a toxic asset no team wants to touch. But an unrestricted free agent Westbrook with 35-40 million already in his pocket is a prime commodity.
Now on to the trade, which will actually be quite painless once the above caveats are met. If the Lakers are willing to part with the two first round picks, the easiest path to making this work is essentially Derrick Favors and Ty Jerome for Westbrook. A sweetner that may make the Thunder more attractive than say, the Charlotte Hornets, could be adding the rights to Vasilije Micic to the trade.
One question that may arise is how do the Thunder stay out of the luxury tax if this gets done. First off, the Thunder have the ability to keep all 15 of their current players. Of course, in this scenario. Favors and Jerome are no longer with the team. But if we really get down to the true rotation of the roster, it only goes about 10 deep.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Josh Giddey
Tre Mann
Aaron Wiggins
Lu Dort
Aleksej Pokusevski
Darius Bazley
Mike Muscala
Kenrich Williams
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
Those 10 players plus the dead money for Kemba Walker and Kyle Singler (still??) comes out to a little over $86 million. Now, let’s look at the Thunder’s pick situation. The Thunder are positioned to pick 4th, 12th, and 30th in the first round. But the lottery won’t be for another 3 weeks. Let’s say that by a miracle of all miracles, the Thunder luck into the 1st, 2nd, and 30th pick. The highest amount to pay for rookies in those positions is a little less than $23 million. Luckily (or unluckily) for OKC, the chances of the dream scenario happening are about 0.16% (shoutout @TylerCarroll12). Let’s say, realistically, the Thunder get #1, #12, and #30. The total cost of those three rookies, salary-wise, is reduced to $17.4 million.
That gets the Thunder up to 13 players under contract at a total of $103.5 million. The Thunder generally like to go into the season with only 14 players. Which means, the 14th roster spot will likely be a battle between Vit Krejci, Isaiah Roby, and whoever the Thunder pick at #34. Luckily none of those players make more than $1.9 million. Let’s say the Thunder bring Roby and Krejci back and two-way the 2nd rounder. That gives them 15 contracted players at a total of $107 million.
The projected salary cap number for next season is $122 million and the luxury tax line is $149 million. If Westbrook takes a clean $40 million buyout, that brings the Thunder’s salaried total to $147 million. While that is close to the line, the Thunder have options to cut salary, if necessary. In addition to those 17 first rounders over the next five drafts, they also have 15 second rounders over the next seven drafts. They could easily send Roby or Krejci to another team with a 2nd attached in the deal.
With all this said, I never once mentioned that Westbrook would stay with this team if traded here. While that idea is an extremely polarizing one within the Thunder fandom, Presti’s vision does not include an aging point guard who is currently championship-chasing. If anything, this is mutually beneficial for all three parties involved. The Thunder get a final haul of assets before they likely start cashing some of them in the next offseason, the Lakers get some salary cap relief and flexibility to keep building around LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and Westbrook gets something that he’s never had in his career: freedom to choose where he wants to go.
In the wake of the tragic death of Kobe Bryant, his daughter Gianna, and seven other people in a helicopter crash in Calabasas, CA on Sunday, I was hit by a wave of emotion from all sorts of different angles. I, like many people, was caught completely off-guard by this tragedy. Like a flame in a thunderstorm, plane crashes and helicopter crashes have a way of bringing an abrupt finality that quickly extinguishes any form of hope. At least in most car crashes, people get taken to the hospitals in hopes that something can be done. But those aerial disasters leave us with a sense of doom before we even see the crash site.
After receiving the news from my sister, I immediately thought it was a hoax. You know, the denial phase of grief. I mean, c’mon now! TMZ? Really? You know how trolls sometimes put out those “so and so passed away” posts, only to have the person in question (or a representative of that person) pop up on some form of social media to dispel the rumors and tell us said person is alive and doing well. Hell, it even happened to former Lakers player Rick Fox yesterday, who many on social media were placing on the same helicopter as Bryant. That, as we now know, turned out to be false.
After other, more reputable, sources started putting out the same news, I began to shift into an almost depressive phase of grief. Like, that shit hit me hard and I had no idea why. Emotions are a weird thing, man. They are personal interpretations of a situation based on that person’s past. They hit everyone differently. And you can never really control how they hit. You see, for me, in a weird way, Kobe Bryant was with me for every phase of my life. And I hadn’t realized that until yesterday. Continue reading →
On Episode 35 of the NTTB podcast, we discuss the following topics:
Scared Money Don’t Make None
Russell Westbrook flies from Hawaii to Oklahoma City voluntarily
Paul George re-signs with the Thunder
Jerami Grant re-signs with the Thunder
Where LeBron ends up
I thought LeBron was supposed to be the first dominoe
Other free agency signings as they happened live
And again, Scared Money Don’t Make None
Intro/Outro music provided by OSC Productions
Thank you for listening. We will be doing a podcast once a week. If you have any Thunder or NBA related questions, make sure you hit us up on Twitter (@alexroig_NTTB or @Montero_A13).
We are on ITunes, Google Play, Stitcher, Spotify, and Tune In under the NTTB Podcast. Make sure you leave us a 5-star review if you can. As always, Thunder Up!
On Episode 26 of the NTTB podcast, we discuss the following topics:
Trade Deadline Recap
Why didn’t the Thunder make a move?
A look at the trades made by the Cavs and Lakers.
Buyout Market
Who’s Available
Did Sam Presti drop the ball?
PG comments
Sneakerhead talk – All-Star game edition
A Look at the Standings
Intro/Outro music provided by OSC Productions
Thank you for listening. We will be doing a podcast once a week. If you have any Thunder or NBA related questions, make sure you hit us up on Twitter (@alexroig_NTTB or @Montero_A13).
We are on ITunes under the NTTB Podcast. Make sure you leave us a 5-star review if you can. As always, Thunder Up!
Radio: WWLS The Sports Animal (98.1 FM, 640 AM, 930 AM (Spanish))
Line: OKC -3.5 | O/U – 216.5
The Set-Up: For many teams, the game after the trade deadline is a battle of attrition. The players that were traded away, of course, will not be available for their old team. And, unfortunately, because of travel and needing to get physicals, won’t be available for their new teams either. With injuries and transacted players, some teams are left with rosters the size of playoff rotations. Continue reading →
Radio: WWLS The Sports Animal (98.1 FM, 640 AM, 930 AM (Spanish))
Line: OKC -5.5 | O/U – 214
As the Oklahoma City Thunder embark on a new year, the ship seems to be sailing in a much more positive direction than it just a month ago. The defense is still playing at a high level, while the offense seems to have figured most of itself out. Russell Westbrook appears to be over his late November/early December slump that saw him uncharacteristically look like he was questioning his every move on the court. Carmelo Anthony looks to have discovered what his role with this team will be and seems to be reveling in that role. Paul George seems to still be teetering with his role, but has found enough of an identity to average 27 points per game in his last 4 games played. And Steven Adams looks intent on making the Big 3 a quartet with his surprisingly good play in the first two months of the season. Continue reading →
In the wake of the tragic death of Kobe Bryant, his daughter Gianna, and seven other people in a helicopter crash in Calabasas, CA on Sunday, I was hit by a wave of emotion from all sorts of different angles. I, like many people, was caught completely off-guard by this tragedy. Like a flame in a thunderstorm, plane crashes and helicopter crashes have a way of bringing an abrupt finality that quickly extinguishes any form of hope. At least in most car crashes, people get taken to the hospitals in hopes that something can be done. But those aerial disasters leave us with a sense of doom before we even see the crash site.
On Episode 35 of the NTTB podcast, we discuss the following topics:
