Last season, the play-in tournament had huge significance for the Oklahoma City Thunder because they were in it. The 40-42 Thunder went into the play-in as the 10th seed, facing the New Orleans Pelicans in the 9/10 match-up. The good guys won a close game, 123-118, as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and Lu Dort combined to score 90 points. Next up, they faced the loser of the 7/8 match-up, the Minnesota Timberwolves. The size of Minnesota overwhelmed the Thunder and they bowed out of the tournament after a 120-95 loss.
Fast forward nearly a year later, and the play-in tournament this season still has huge significance for the Thunder…but for different reasons. Instead of being participants, the Thunder are now at the top of the West, waiting to see who they will face in the first round. Here’s a look at the two play-in games and how the teams in them match-up against themselves.
Game 1 (7/8 match-up) – Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
When: Tuesday, 16 April 2024 at 6:30pm CST
Where: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
Season Series: Lakers won the season series 3-1
Dec. 7th – 133-89 (Los Angeles)
Dec. 31st – 129-109 (New Orleans)
Feb. 9th – 139-122 (Los Angeles)
Apr. 14th – 124-118 (Los Angeles)
The Set-Up
It may not seem like it, but this match-up has been brewing for a while now. If you remember back to the In-Season Tournament semi-finals in December, LeBron James and the Lakers completely embarrassed Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans. The reactions after this game were peak “does Zion even care?” and “does Zion want to play in New Orleans?”. Since that game, though, Williamson has taken it upon himself to get into better shape and to add more wrinkles to his game (point Zion). The Pelicans put together a good run in the second half of the season, but fell apart a little at the end due to Brandon Ingram’s injury. Ingram returned for the season finale against the Lakers, but the Pelicans lost and they plummeted to the 7th seed behind Phoenix.
Game 2 (9/10 match-up) – Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
When: Tuesday, 16 April 2024 at 9:00pm CST
Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
Season Series: Series tied 2-2, but Sacramento won the tie-breaker due to a better division record
Oct. 27th – 122-114 (Golden State)
Nov. 1st – 102-101 (Golden State)
Nov. 28th – 124-123 (Sacramento)
Jan. 25th – 134-133 (Sacramento)
The Set-Up
The NBA has to be salivating with these West play-in games. Not only did the Warriors and Kings match-up in one of the more memorable series in last season’s playoffs, but they’ve also had 3 consecutive meetings this year decided by one point. This game is literally “win or go home”. Does this game put the final nail in the Warriors’ coffin? Or does Sacramento go into an offseason with a plethora of questions after seemingly being on the path to contention? Whatever the result, it definitely makes for must-see TV. You can bet the Thunder will be watching.
For months, the big four in the Western Conference has been the Thunder, the Nuggets, the Timberwolves, and the Clippers. It was almost a forgone conclusion that those would be the top-4 seeds in the West. But lo and behold, a challenger has arisen from the Gulf Coast. For much of the first half of the season, New Orleans’ season was viewed as a disappointment. Injuries to key contributors like Trey Murphy III and Jose Alvarado had sapped a lot of the depth the Pelicans had. Zion Williamson was once again fighting the battle of the bulge…and losing. The turning point in the season for Zion (and for the Pelicans) was an embarrassing 133-89 loss to the Lakers in the In-Season Tournament semifinals that saw Zion get outscored, outworked, and outclassed by LeBron James.
Since then, New Orleans has gone 32-16 and Zion has reworked his game and his body to become his most optimal self. Williamson is noticeably slimmer than he was earlier in the season and his game has transformed itself into more of a point-Zion trajectory. He handles the ball more off boards and is second on the team in assists per game. The lost weight has allowed Zion to look more like Duke Zion and has made him a force to be reckoned with anytime he is remotely close to the basket.
This is the third and final meeting of the season between these two teams. On November 1st, Oklahoma City squandered an early 22-point lead in the first game to end up on the losing end of things, 106-110. The Thunder returned the favor in late January, handling the Pelicans easily in New Orleans, 107-83.
Magic Numbers
To lock up the 10th seed (play-in guaranteed) – 0 (Locked In)
To lock up the 6th seed (playoffs guaranteed) – 5
Betting Info
Line: OKC -1.5
O/U: 223.5
Injury Report
OKC
None
NO
Dyson Daniels (knee) – OUT
Brandon Ingram (knee) – OUT
Three Keys Things
Rebounding – I know, I know. The Thunder have gotten better at rebounding in the 2nd half of the season. And, yes, the Thunder have slowly proven that if they can beat you at nearly every other aspect of the game, the rebounding becomes a moot point. But against a team like New Orleans, those 2nd chance points can tilt the game in their favor. The Pelicans are a top-10 team in 2nd chance scoring and the Thunder, of course, are still one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Jonas Valanciunas has always terrorized the Thunder on the boards and tonight should be no different. It’s making sure that the Pelicans don’t make the Thunder pay on those 2nd chance opportunities.
SGA – Ever since the MVP discussion has gotten louder, SGA’s game has, unfortunately, petered off. Be it fatigue, wear & tear, injury, how teams are defending him, or all of the above, SGA just doesn’t feel like he has the same gear as he did pre-ASB. Hopefully it’s just a slump and he can work himself out of it. Many people forget that Jokic went through an early season slump that had many asking if he was out of shape from the celebratory off-season. Every player goes through periods like this. It just so happens that it’s louder for SGA because of where we’re at in the season.
Prime-time Match-Up – Despite New Orleans’ slow start to the season, they’ve been one of the best teams in the league over the past 2 months. And the Thunder have been about as consistent as they come. As we head into the playoffs, these are the types of match-ups that can serve as “canaries in the coal mine” to see where the Thunder are mentally heading into their first postseason as a collective.
Back at the top. While the Thunder have been battling for the top stop the entire season, they haven’t really done that great of a job of holding on to the title when they get it. Tonight presents another opportunity to hold on to 1st place in the Western Conference. But a loss tonight, coupled with a likely Minnesota victory (they play Portland), could knock OKC back to #2, sitting tied with Denver in the standings. Luckily, OKC owns the tiebreaker with Denver and would get the higher seeding.
This is the fourth and final meeting of the regular season between these two teams. The Thunder won the first meeting 133-110 in OKC in late November. The Lakers returned the favor a couple weeks later, again in OKC, winning 129-120. The Lakers then beat OKC in Los Angeles in January, 112-105.
Magic Numbers
To lock up the 10th seed (play-in guaranteed) – 12
To lock up the 6th seed (playoffs guaranteed) – 16
Betting Info
Line: OKC -1.5
O/U: 238.5
Injury Report
OKC
Jaylin Williams (knee) – Day to Day
LAL
Colin Castleton (wrist) – OUT
Anthony Davis (achilles) – Probable
LeBron James (ankle) – Questionable
Cam Reddish (ankle) – Probable
Jarred Vanderbilt (foot) – OUT
Gabe Vincent (knee) – OUT
Christian Wood (knee) – OUT
Three Big Things
Physicality – It’s funny because there are a lot of things that OKC and the Lakers do very similarly, despite the difference in their records. They are both poor rebounding teams who push the pace and shoot efficiently. Where they differ is in the amount of physicality the players are able to exert. LeBron James has game worn jerseys that are older than some of the players on the Thunder. Chet Holmgren was 10 years old when Anthony Davis started his career. It will be on the Thunder’s young core to either be quicker than the Lakers for the majority of the game or be purposefully more physical than the Lakers.
Get in transition – The Lakers are the 5th worst team at stopping fast break points. The Thunder generate a lot of their offense in transition. It would benefit them to get fast break opportunities throughout the game and take advantage of them.
Pack the paint – The Lakers are the worst team at generating points from the 3-point line. They score 55.1% of their points from 2-point territory (2nd in the league) and only 29.2% of their points from deep. The Thunder’s defensive scheme plays into this.
Listen, I’m still reeling from Saturday. The love you guys showed us on Saturday was amazing. Getting to meet many of you guys at The Parlor and then hanging out at the game was a frickin’ movie. Thank you for the motivation to continue showing up and putting together this page and this podcast. We could not do it without you guys. Here’s to many more years of love and success. Now, before I get too sappy, there is a game tonight.
This is the third of four meetings this season between these two games. The Thunder won the first meeting, 133-110, back on November 30th. The Lakers returned the favor on December 23rd, winning in OKC, 129-120. Their final game of the season is on March 4th, 2024.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -3.5
O/U: 237.5
Injury Report
OKC
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (knee) – Questionable
LAL
Anthony Davis (ankle) – Questionable
LeBron James (ankle) – Probable
Cam Reddish (knee) – OUT
D’Angelo Russell (illness) – Questionable
Gabe Vincent (knee) – OUT
Three Big Things
SGA – When the day first started, the Lakes were favored. But as the day progressed, the line shifted towards favoring the Thunder. Which likely means, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be available to play tonight. If he is, watch out, because SGA loves to play under the bright lights in LA.
Physicality – One of the biggest issues the Thunder face when battling the Lakers, is their size up front. Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Jarred Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura, Jaxson Hayes, and Christian Woods are just large individuals. And when they play against the Thunder, who start a “still thin” Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, they do struggle, at times, to match the size and strength of other teams. Expect Jaylin Williams and Kenrich Williams to play some minutes in this game.
Defending Without Fouling – The Lakers attempt the 7th most amount of free throws in the league at 24.4 attempts per game. The Thunder, on the other hand, foul the 10th most in the league. Players like James and Davis are foul-magnets and the Thunder have a tendency to be hyper-aggressive defensively, which can lead to dumb fouls and an unbalanced free throw count between the two teams. The Thunder have to play their game defensively, but play it intelligently.
Expectations. The curse of becoming good. The “rebuilding team” narrative that plagued OKC for the past three seasons is now being replaced by the complaining culture when a team isn’t winning every game that it plays. “Josh Giddey doesn’t fit with this team.” “Mark Daigneault doesn’t know how to coach in close games.” “Is Lu Dort an anchor on the offense when he isn’t hitting his 3-point shot?” Et cetera. Et cetera.
But this is the natural progression in the NBA. If you are building through the draft, the progression is usually a couple of seasons of bad basketball, which gives you the young players you need to build off of. Then you have a couple of seasons of figuring out how to win consistently in the regular season (This is where we’re currently at). Then you hopefully have a couple of seasons of playoff experience. Then, if you’re lucky, you become a contender. It’s a process. People look at the finished product that is the Denver Nuggets, but forget that Aaron Gordon is in his 10th season, Nikola Jokic is in his 9th, and Jamal Murray is in his 8th. It takes time and it takes patience.
Season Series: This is the first of four meetings between the Lakers and Thunder this season
Betting Info
Line: OKC -5.5
Spread: O/U 233.5
Injury Report
OKC
None
LAL
Rui Hachimura (nose) – OUT
Jaxson Hayes (elbow) – Questionable
Jarred Vanderbilt (heel) – OUT
Gabe Vincent (knee) – OUT
Three Big Things
Protect the paint – The Lakers are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league. They are dead last in 3-point attempts and 3-pointers made and are 28th in 3-point percentage. They get most of their points in the paint (49.4%, which is 2nd in the league). This will be a game where Chet Holmgren’s defense may have a huge impact in how the Thunder do.
SGA – The lights normally shine brightest when the Lakers are playing and that’s when SGA shines. Even when the Thunder were rebuilding, the Thunder (and SGA) would usually have great games against the purple and gold.
LeBron – We rarely get to see LeBron in OKC. Over the past few seasons, he’s either been hurt or he’s been “hurt” when the Lakers make their trip to OKC. I’m glad the Thunder are now relevant enough to the King to grace us his presence in OKC.
If you are writing a story about the come-up of a great young team, you always have to have the protagonist. The rival the team has to overcome to make it to the top of that mountain. For the Michael Jordan Chicago Bulls, it was the Detroit Pistons. For the Kobe/Shaq Lakers, it was the Sacramento Kings. For the Curry Warriors, it was Mark Jackson. For this iteration of the Thunder, we still don’t know who that team is. It could be the Orlando Magic. The San Antonio Spurs. Maybe the Houston Rockets.
Or it could be the team that we’ve already faced in a non-regular season scenario. These two teams faced off in the 2nd round game of the Play-In Tournament last season, with Minnesota out-dueling the Thunder on their way to a 120-95 victory. The Wolves were very physical and bested the Thunder in points in the paint, 58-30. The frontcourt tandem of Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns combined to score 49 points and grab 19 rebounds, while shooting 19 free throws.
Season Series – This is the first meeting this season between these division rivals.
Injury Report
OKC
None
MIN
Jaylen Clark (Achilles) – Out
Jaden McDaniels (ankle) – Out
Jordan McLaughlin (knee) – Out
Three Big Things
High stakes – Okay, so these may not be huge stakes. No one really cares about who’s number one in their conference 17 games into an 82-game season. I get it. But, man, would it feel good to be conference king for a day. If nothing else, a win gives you a leg up on a division/conference rival for future playoff seeding and knocks Minnesota out of the In-Season Tournament.
Big rotation – It’ll be interesting to see how head coach Mark Daigneault handles the big rotation tonight. We saw in the Philly game his willingness to play two bigs in Chet Holmgren and Jaylin Williams. What could be most interesting is the Naz Reid vs. Kenrich Williams match-up that I think we’ll see some tonight.
Shooting – I’ve got a secret for you guys. The Thunder, now hear me out, tend to do better when their 3-point shot is falling. I know, I know. Shocking! All kidding aside, the Thunder have turned into the quintessential modern NBA team. Most of their shots come from the 3-point line and in the paint. Only 7.6% of their points come from the mid-range. And while the Thunder do lead the league in 3-point percentage, when that shot isn’t falling, the offense can get very clunky. Players like Lu Dort and Cason Wallace, who started the season off hot, have now regressed to where they likely will be for the rest of the season. And if Isaiah Joe isn’t completely flame-throwing from deep, the offense looks even worse.
If we rewind back to the end of season press conference Oklahoma City Thunder general manager Sam Presti had, a couple of the prevailing themes came to the forefront. The first being the Thunder would not cut corners in order to get back to where they want to be. Two quotes stuck out to me when referencing this theme. The first being, “We’re running our own race. We’re not watching the clock. We know our time is going to come. We can’t predict when that’s going to be, but we’re up for the challenge here.” And the other being, “We’re closer to being the team we want to be this season than we were last season, but we’re still really far away from ultimately getting to the level we want to be at.”
The other theme was the fact the Thunder will likely wait until after the new CBA is signed during the 2023 offseason before diving into any real roster building outside of the draft. Presti harkened back to previous Thunder teams whose flexibility was basically nullified by the new CBA rules of the time.
But I would say what we can’t have happen is to be mid-stream, which has happened, and a brand new bouquet of rules is introduced that is not advantageous to where you are in your building process. One time, okay; two times, hmm; but not happening three times. So we have to be eyes wide open on what that really means. Like I said, if I was a fan right now I’d shut my ears because this is not interesting, but if you’re trying to run an NBA franchise in 2022 and beyond, in 20 of the 30 cities, you’re going to be tuned into the CBA, revenue sharing and TV deal. Those things really set the cast for how you operate.
If we take Presti at his word, then I don’t think the Thunder will be too interested in free agency and in the trade market this offseason and upcoming season. Instead, I believe this will be the last year where Oklahoma City will truly be in asset acquisition mode. We’ve heard the numbers before: OKC has 17 possible first round picks over the next five drafts, including this year’s draft. Is it possible to have too many first round picks for a period of time? Yes, if you don’t have a plan. But Presti laid out how some of those firsts may be used in the future. During the presser, he talked about the price of obtaining veterans to fill out the roster via trades. Said recent trades cost between one and two firsts for valuable veterans. If that is what the Thunder are going for, why not try to obtain the most valuable assets possible.
Recently, Russell Westbrook, currently of the Los Angeles Lakers, decided to purge some pictures from his Instagram account. One thing that was very noticeable from the purging: the only pictures that remained were those of his regular life and those of him in Thunder gear. All the Lakers, Rockets, and Wizards-related pictures were deleted. While some basketball players have a habit of deleting team-related pictures during the offseason, the fact that Westbrook kept his OKC pictures got people talking.
While it may be nothing, always remember that Presti does a ton of his work behind the scenes. The trade that sent Chris Paul to Phoenix was likely consummated, not in the 2020 offseason, but instead, likely, on January 31st, 2020 when the Thunder played the Suns in Phoenix. It was there where the widely circulated video of Suns GM James Jones telling Presti to follow him as they headed into the tunnel occurred. Between that game and their time in the Bubble in Orlando, I’m sure much, if not all, of the framework for that trade was constructed then. With both the Lakers and Thunder having so much time on their hands, what’s to say Presti and Lakers GM Rob Pelinka haven’t already had some preliminary discussions. And with Presti’s relationship with Westbrook, who’s to say all three parties aren’t keyed into what the next step may be.
This all begs the question: What does a trade for Westbrook look like for the Thunder? Before we jump into specifics, there are some caveats that need to be discussed. First off, the return from the Lakers will definitely need to be in the form of, at least, two future first round picks, both either unprotected or very lightly protected (no more than top-4 protected). Secondly, there likely needs to be an agreement between the Thunder and Westbrook before the trade even occurs on a buy-out amount. Westbrook is due to make $47 million next season. The Thunder do not have the ability to absorb that amount without risking their cap flexibility for future seasons. For a team that is in the middle of a rebuild, that is extremely important. The agreed upon amount needs to be that mid-point between what makes Westbrook happy and what keeps the Thunder’s cap sheet flexible. Westbrook making $47 million is a toxic asset no team wants to touch. But an unrestricted free agent Westbrook with 35-40 million already in his pocket is a prime commodity.
Now on to the trade, which will actually be quite painless once the above caveats are met. If the Lakers are willing to part with the two first round picks, the easiest path to making this work is essentially Derrick Favors and Ty Jerome for Westbrook. A sweetner that may make the Thunder more attractive than say, the Charlotte Hornets, could be adding the rights to Vasilije Micic to the trade.
One question that may arise is how do the Thunder stay out of the luxury tax if this gets done. First off, the Thunder have the ability to keep all 15 of their current players. Of course, in this scenario. Favors and Jerome are no longer with the team. But if we really get down to the true rotation of the roster, it only goes about 10 deep.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Josh Giddey
Tre Mann
Aaron Wiggins
Lu Dort
Aleksej Pokusevski
Darius Bazley
Mike Muscala
Kenrich Williams
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
Those 10 players plus the dead money for Kemba Walker and Kyle Singler (still??) comes out to a little over $86 million. Now, let’s look at the Thunder’s pick situation. The Thunder are positioned to pick 4th, 12th, and 30th in the first round. But the lottery won’t be for another 3 weeks. Let’s say that by a miracle of all miracles, the Thunder luck into the 1st, 2nd, and 30th pick. The highest amount to pay for rookies in those positions is a little less than $23 million. Luckily (or unluckily) for OKC, the chances of the dream scenario happening are about 0.16% (shoutout @TylerCarroll12). Let’s say, realistically, the Thunder get #1, #12, and #30. The total cost of those three rookies, salary-wise, is reduced to $17.4 million.
That gets the Thunder up to 13 players under contract at a total of $103.5 million. The Thunder generally like to go into the season with only 14 players. Which means, the 14th roster spot will likely be a battle between Vit Krejci, Isaiah Roby, and whoever the Thunder pick at #34. Luckily none of those players make more than $1.9 million. Let’s say the Thunder bring Roby and Krejci back and two-way the 2nd rounder. That gives them 15 contracted players at a total of $107 million.
The projected salary cap number for next season is $122 million and the luxury tax line is $149 million. If Westbrook takes a clean $40 million buyout, that brings the Thunder’s salaried total to $147 million. While that is close to the line, the Thunder have options to cut salary, if necessary. In addition to those 17 first rounders over the next five drafts, they also have 15 second rounders over the next seven drafts. They could easily send Roby or Krejci to another team with a 2nd attached in the deal.
With all this said, I never once mentioned that Westbrook would stay with this team if traded here. While that idea is an extremely polarizing one within the Thunder fandom, Presti’s vision does not include an aging point guard who is currently championship-chasing. If anything, this is mutually beneficial for all three parties involved. The Thunder get a final haul of assets before they likely start cashing some of them in the next offseason, the Lakers get some salary cap relief and flexibility to keep building around LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and Westbrook gets something that he’s never had in his career: freedom to choose where he wants to go.
In the wake of the tragic death of Kobe Bryant, his daughter Gianna, and seven other people in a helicopter crash in Calabasas, CA on Sunday, I was hit by a wave of emotion from all sorts of different angles. I, like many people, was caught completely off-guard by this tragedy. Like a flame in a thunderstorm, plane crashes and helicopter crashes have a way of bringing an abrupt finality that quickly extinguishes any form of hope. At least in most car crashes, people get taken to the hospitals in hopes that something can be done. But those aerial disasters leave us with a sense of doom before we even see the crash site.
After receiving the news from my sister, I immediately thought it was a hoax. You know, the denial phase of grief. I mean, c’mon now! TMZ? Really? You know how trolls sometimes put out those “so and so passed away” posts, only to have the person in question (or a representative of that person) pop up on some form of social media to dispel the rumors and tell us said person is alive and doing well. Hell, it even happened to former Lakers player Rick Fox yesterday, who many on social media were placing on the same helicopter as Bryant. That, as we now know, turned out to be false.
After other, more reputable, sources started putting out the same news, I began to shift into an almost depressive phase of grief. Like, that shit hit me hard and I had no idea why. Emotions are a weird thing, man. They are personal interpretations of a situation based on that person’s past. They hit everyone differently. And you can never really control how they hit. You see, for me, in a weird way, Kobe Bryant was with me for every phase of my life. And I hadn’t realized that until yesterday. Continue reading →
In the wake of the tragic death of Kobe Bryant, his daughter Gianna, and seven other people in a helicopter crash in Calabasas, CA on Sunday, I was hit by a wave of emotion from all sorts of different angles. I, like many people, was caught completely off-guard by this tragedy. Like a flame in a thunderstorm, plane crashes and helicopter crashes have a way of bringing an abrupt finality that quickly extinguishes any form of hope. At least in most car crashes, people get taken to the hospitals in hopes that something can be done. But those aerial disasters leave us with a sense of doom before we even see the crash site.