Current Streaks: DEN: Alternating W’s and L’s for the last 8 games / OKC: Lost their last game, 5-2 in their last 7 games
The Tip-Off
Next man up. As the Thunder start to get healthier and healthier, the experience garnered from different players being thrust into roles that aren’t familiar to them could serve to be a positive as the Thunder navigate through the last 20 games of the season. The shot-making from Isaiah Joe and Jared McCain, the play-making and scoring from Cason Wallace, the offensive-hubbing from Jaylin Williams, the scoring from Kenrich Williams, etc. All those skills, while mostly not needed when the team is healthy, can serve as difference makers when defenses game-plan entirely against a team’s offense. We saw last season that the shooting can dry up quickly in the playoffs. If the players on the floor present more dynamic games, it allows the team to score in a variety of ways instead of relying entirely on their bread and butter (SGA and Dub).
This is the second of four meeting this season between these Northwest Division rivals. OKC won the first meeting, 121-111, in a game that saw the Thunder lead wire to wire and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander solidify his stamp on the MVP race with a 34 point, 13 assist performance.
The Thunder offense – While Denver may have the best offense in the league, it’s the Thunder’s offense that may show out in this game. Denver’s struggles on the defensive end have been well-documented this season. Nikola Jokic, while great on the offensive end of the floor, has never been mistaken for being a defensive stalwart on the other end. The Thunder’s ability to put Jokic into action with SGA gives the advantage to OKC. Denver will try to deploy a zone, but don’t currently have the horses (yes, pun intended) to run an effective one, with Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson being out. In addition, Denver doesn’t add too much defensive pressure on the ball, seeing as they are 29th in steals per game, 27th in blocks per game, and last in points off turnovers.
Return of SGA – After carrying the Thunder on his back for most of the season, SGA (and the Thunder) were able to steal 3 weeks worth of rest for the reigning MVP. That could be huge for OKC as they head into their final playoff push. The Thunder went 5-4 in the 9 games Gilgeous-Alexander missed. Abdominal strains have a way of being tricky (see also hamstring strains), so here’s hoping he’s fully healed.
Perimeter Defense – Outside of Jokic, the reason Denver’s offense is so great is their jump-shooting ability. The Nuggets rank 2nd in FG%, 1st in 3pt FG%, 6th in FT%, 1st in Effective FG%, and 1st in True Shooting %. With the gravity that Jokic, and Jamal Murray to a lesser degree, have, it opens up jump shooting opportunities for many of their role players. One of the more effective ways to defend against this is to limit the times you double-team Jokic. And the Thunder have the bodies to defend Joker one on one.
Current Streaks: DET: Lost their last game, but had won 5 in a row previous to that / OKC: Winners of 3 in a row, 5-1 in their last 6 games
The Tip-Off
I’m still buzzing a bit off of the Thunder’s last two wins. To see Cason Wallace finally start to put together a complete game and to see Isaiah Joe completely bending defenses to his will because of his floor spacing has been incredible to watch since the All-Star break. Wallace has always been viewed as a defense first guy since entering the league and for good reason. You don’t lead the league in steals and total deflections without leaving your mark on that end of the floor. But to see what he has become with OKC missing most (and on some nights, all) of their ball-handlers, has been jaw-dropping. There were times last night where Wallace was calling for the ball at the top of the key in clutch time…and making all the right decisions. The Thunder pride themselves on still being a developmental team and it’s moments like this that show us that that approach is still working.
This is the first of two REGULAR SEASON meetings between these two conference front runners. OKC swept the season series last year.
Battle of physical defenses – Detroit plays a physical brand of basketball that would make Bill Laimbeer proud. They lead the league in steals (10.3) and blocks (6.3), while also leading the league in personal fouls (22.3). For everyone that complains about Oklahoma City’s defense being too physical, they apparently haven’t watched too many Pistons games this season. Oklahoma City usually does a good job of matching physicality with physicality, so it will be interesting if things will get chippy out there. I’m calling it: Kenrich Williams gets a tech tonight.
Scheduled loss game – Second night of a road back to back. Prioritizing injury management. The Thunder will likely get fined for sitting some players out. And yet, I feel like the Pistons could fall into a trap game here. Maybe I’m just being a prisoner of the moment, but I really like the rhythm the Thunder are currently playing with. With that said, it’s going to be extremely difficult to get over Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein likely not playing in this game.
Turnover-prone – The path to beating the Pistons tonight may be an uphill battle, but where the Thunder can make up ground is in the Pistons being turnover prone. They are 23rd in the league in turnovers per game at 15.3. And they only have one real ball-handler in Cade Cunningham. A high turnover game and a bad Cunningham night could help the Thunder in making things competitive.
Current Streaks: MIL: Winners of 4 of their last 5 / OKC: Winners of 4 of their last 6
The Tip-Off
Dang it! You write about the man in the last gameday preview. He puts together his best game of the season. And then the Injury Monster rears it’s ugly head again. This has been a miserable season, health-wise, for Jalen Williams. Against the Suns, Dub was out there looking like All-Star Dub for the entirety of the game, putting on a clinic in the 3rd quarter. But on his single miss of the game, a fast-break lay-up attempt where he had to reach for the ball in full stride, he jogged back to the other side of the court and pointed to the bench while grabbing his hamstring. Timeout, Thunder. Dub heads back to the locker room, never to be seen again. Here’s hoping the All-Star break can help heal some of the Thunder’s walking wounded.
This is the second and final meeting of the season between these two bitter rivals (that’s the joke – they were matched up on rivalry week…for why? I don’t know). The Thunder won the first meeting 122-102, in a game where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 40 points, while Ajay Mitchell and Kenrich Williams each contributed 18 points apiece.
Hot-shooting Team – Both teams come into this game on shooting hot streaks over the past 10 days. Since Feb. 2nd, Milwaukee is 4th in FG% and 1st in 3pt FG%. During that same timespan, OKC is 11th in FG% and 4th in 3pt FG%. Granted, three of the teams that Milwaukee played in that timeframe are in the bottom 10 of defensive rating, but sometimes the opponent doesn’t really matter if you are riding a hot wave.
1…2…3…Cancun! – The game before the All-Star break has the possibility of being a weird game. Milwaukee comes into the game on a hot streak, with young players that want to prove themselves not only to the Bucks, but also to Giannis Antetokounmpo. Guys like Cam Thomas and Thunder legend Ousmane Dieng are getting the green light to put all their skills on display and it’s resulted in some spirited wins here lately. Meanwhile, the Thunder likely just want to get through this game unscathed, so their guys can get a week’s worth of rest.
Nikola Topic – It’s been a long road, but Nikola Topic will make his professional debut tonight. After rehabbing an ACL injury the entirety of his rookie season to battling testicular cancer in the first half of this season, Topic has traveled a journey that would break many. He made his G-League debut earlier this week and immediately looked like he belonged. He scored 7 points and dished out 7 assists in his first game with the Blue. The next night, he scored 22 points and handed out 4 assists. In the absence of SGA, Mitchell, and now, Dub, having Topic out there to facilitate and play-make will be a gift.
Current Streaks: ORL: 2-5 in their last 7 games / OKC: 2-3 in their last 5 games
The Set-Up
The days prior to the trade deadline are always filled with equal parts angst, curiosity, and hope. The Oklahoma City Thunder find themselves in a position where they have multiple options. Their most tradeable piece is Ousmane Dieng and his $6.7 million dollar expiring deal. While Lu Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Kenrich Williams also have possible expiring contracts, their importance to this team makes trading them in-season kind of difficult. But this could also be the Thunder’s last opportunity to acquire anything of value before any big deal would need to possibly involve one of the core three. Buckle up…we have two games and a trade deadline in the next three days. Could be fun…or nerve-wracking…or quizzical…or boring.
This is the first of two meetings this season between the Thunder and Magic. Oklahoma City has won that last 4 meetings against Orlando dating back to the 2023-24 season.
Orlando’s lack of shooting – While the Desmond Bane trade went a long way to provide Orlando with a reliable three-point threat, the Magic, as a collective, still lack consistent outside shooting. They rank 25th in 3-point attempts and 3-point makes and rank 27th in 3-point percentage at 34.3%. In addition, they are also bottom 10 in the same categories for total FG’s made, attempted, and percentage. This plays into the Thunder’s defensive ethos of protecting the paint and running out to shooters on the perimeter.
Sacrificial Game – This may be a sacrificial game for the Thunder. It’s the first night of a home/road back to back. The players who have played most of the season are likely tired and suffering from general soreness (shoutout Jimmy Butler). And the players who have come back from injury recently, such as Isaiah Hartenstein, likely can only play in one of the two back to back games. With that said, the Thunder are 2-0 in games in which Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sits out this season.
Win the turnover battle – Both OKC and Orlando do a good job of, not only protecting the ball (#2 and #7, respectively), but also, getting back on defense when they turn the ball over (OKC is 2nd and ORL is 4th in Opponent Points off Turnovers). Whoever wins the turnover battle, likely has an advantage in how this game goes.
Four years ago today, the Oklahoma City Thunder traveled to Memphis to face the Grizzlies, who were going to be without Ja Morant. The Thunder were also going to be without two of their best players in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey. The Grizzlies were favored to win, as the Thunder were in the midst of a rebuild. As they say, there are professionals on both teams. The outcome of the game, though, was anything but professional. The Thunder came out flat, dug themselves in a hole, got tossed some shovels, and kept on digging. To the tune of a record 73-point drubbing, 152-79. SGA, Aaron Wiggins, and Kenrich Williams saw that game from the sidelines. Lu Dort played in that game and was the leading scorer for OKC. Four years later, the Thunder (and those same four players) sit on top of the basketball world with teams scared they may be in the midst of a dynastic run. As Shai’s favorite rapper, Drake, would say, “Started from the bottom, now we’re here…”
This is the 2nd of 4 meetings this season between the Thunder and Warriors. OKC won the first game in resounding fashion, 126-102, in a game that saw Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler combine to score just 23 points on 38% shooting from the field and 17% shooting from 3. For the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 28 points and dished out 11 assists, while Chet Holmgren tallied 23 points to go along with 11 rebounds.
Causing turnovers – For as great the Warriors have been through the years on the offensive end, their Achilles heel has always been their propensity to commit turnovers. That is no different this season. Golden State turns the ball over 16.2 times a game, which is 5th worst in the league. On the other end of the spectrum, OKC creates the most turnovers and leads the league in points off turnovers.
Three-Point Shooting – If I were to ask who do you think has a higher 3pt percentage between OKC and Golden State, the likely answer would be Golden State. In reality, it’s actually OKC. Not by much, but still, very surprising. The Warriors still lead the league in 3-pointers made per game. With Stephen Curry out, the onus to make threes will fall on Moses Moody (39.2% on 6.6 attempts), Brandin Podziemski (38.6% on 4.8 attempts), and Buddy Hield (30.8% on 4.3 attempts). Hield is having a down year, but can catch fire in an instant.
History in the making – In his last game against the Portland Trailblazers, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander checked back into the game with 5:53 left in the 4th quarter. He had 16 points and was in jeopardy of losing his consecutive game streak of scoring 20 or more points in a game. With 4:18 left, he finally got loose for a difficult 17-foot fallaway jumper. Then with 2:30 left, SGA hit a 14-foot middy, off an assist from Jalen Williams. Whew! Crisis averted. And in sole possession of 2nd place with 93 consecutive games of scoring 20 points or more. The next target is the record of 126 games. And for anyone that wants to talk mess or downplay that consistency, just know that LeBron James currently holds the record for consecutive games scoring at least 10 points or more in NBA history with 1,297 games and counting. And during that time, LeBron has stayed in games while injured just to collect the necessary points to keep the streak going. Even last night, as the Lakers were getting blown out by the Suns, LeBron stayed in the game long enough to notch his 10th point and then was pulled a minute later late in the 4th quarter.
I know, last year we were here too, but it just feels different this year.
Yes, we were the 1-seed last year too. But this year we weren’t fighting until the literal final game of the season to try to secure it.
The arrival is here, and if the first 2 games of the Thunder’s round 1 series against the Grizzlies are any indication, it’s going to be here for quite some time.
It really feels like this could be our year.
And you just got to tip your cap to Sam Presti, man.
You have the front runner for the MVP.
You have 3rd year player who is an All-Star.
You have another 3rd year player who was playing like an All-Star.
You have one of (if not) the best perimeter defenders in basketball.
You have a behemoth in the paint to fix every weakness that doomed us the year prior, in addition to being a playmaking maestro.
Then you have the deepest bench in basketball.
From the marksman’s ability of Isaiah Joe, the offensive versatility (and the saving of basketball) of Aaron Wiggins, the hustle and toughness from Kenrich Williams, the steady play from Jaylin Williams, all the way down to 2nd round rookie Ajay Mitchell being able to play in the playoffs in his first year and actually have success.
That’s all well and good, and a big reason why the Thunder are favored to finally bring home the title. That glorious Larry O’B. Mm mm mm.
But I want to highlight the pieces off the bench that I believe are the most critical to the Thunder achieving the goal, and are as equally responsible for the dominant play we have seen in games 1 and 2 as anyone else of the roster.
Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso.
We at the Topic: Thunder podcast started calling Cason Wallace “The Cookie Monster” early in the season, in reference to A: he always seemingly had his hand in the cookie jar. And B: he was one of the league leader in steals (steals = cookies for the uninitiated).
As the season went on, and we started getting healthier through a season of turmoil and adversity, Cason and Caruso got to play together more. Which was a pure joy for Thunder fans, and absolute nightmare fuel for opposing teams.
Thats when we took the name and morphed it into “Cookies and Cream”. The whole cookie thing is still relevant, but you got Cason doing these rim rattling dunks in transition (like one would dunk a cookie into milk… anyone???) and Caruso is picking peoples pockets, tipping passes, challenging the post, blocking shots, diving on the floor. And he’s an old(er) white guy, so of course he’s the cream. Cream of the crop when it comes to the games most disruptive defenders.
Now you know why we call them that, but what we saw last night was them in action like we haven’t seen before.
Entering the 4th, the duo had had a solid showing so far. Cason had 3 points, 1 rebound, and 1 assist, while Caruso had 8 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals.
The Grizzlies had just cut the lead to 11, and had a bit of momentum to try to trim away further.
Then Alex Caruso hit a 3.
A couple possessions later he forced a jump ball with Jaren Jackson Jr.
Immediately after, the Grizzlies get the jump ball, and Scottie Pippen Jr. is blocked by Cason.
On the other end of the floor, Cason blows by Zach Edey on a close out and finishes with a THUNDEROUS (see what I did there) flush.
A couple possessions later, Ja Morant drives to the right baseline to try to put up a shot over Isaiah Hartenstein, and ALEX CARUSO OUT OF NOWHERE comes to send his shot to the nether realm.
On the other end of the floor, Caruso crosses up JJJ, drives left shows the ball on a shot fake with his right hand, pivots and finishes the impressive floater.
A few possessions later, Caruso dives onto the floor to tip the ball out of Ja’s hand (MID CROSSOVER BY THE WAY?!?!) into Cason’s hands, who then outlets to Jalen Williams for the lay.
Alex Caruso checks out.
Thunder are now back up to a 20 point lead.
That’s just one example of the game wrecking abilities that Caso and AC have.
And as my oldest child who is now seemingly obsessed with the Mighty Ducks, it reminds me of another dynamic, game wrecking duo, that fed off the energy of the crowd.
Fulton Reed and Dean Portman.
Better known as the Bash Brothers.
When the Mighty Ducks were getting beat up, and run out of the rink, they looked to the Bash Brothers to tilt the game on its head. Their physicality and energy were contagious through the crowd and the rest of the Ducks, and it ended up being the spark that won them the game.
The Thunder haven’t yet needed Cason and Caruso in a win/lose playoff scenario, but the comparison is still on point.
When they come into the game, the defense steps up all across the floor.
In game 2 the tandem had a defensive rating of 88.2.
In game 1 they had a defensive rating of 65 (!!).
They just come in and do nothing but wreck the game, tear it to pieces. And whether it’s cutting into a lead or blowing it wide open, when they check in, they make things happen.
Call them Cookies and Cream, call them Allstate, call them Bash Brothers, I don’t care.
Whatever you call them, they are absolute game wreckers.
And they are going to be a huge reason the Oklahoma City Thunder will finally get that elusive Larry O’Brien trophy.
And who knows, maybe we’ll celebrate with some Cookies and Cream.
Memphis Grizzlies (0-1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (1-0)
When: Tuesday, 22 April 2025 at 6:30pm CST
Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Series: OKC leads 1-0
TV: TNT/truTV/Max/FanDuelTV
The Set-Up
Utter dominance. This is what the Thunder did to Memphis in Game 1. In the first half, the Thunder scored as many points in the 2nd quarter as the Grizzlies did for the entire half. In the 2nd half, the Thunder scored as many points in the 3rd quarter as the Grizzlies did for the entire 2nd half. For the game, the Thunder had shooting splits of 50/35/93, while the Grizzlies managed a paltry 34/17/83. Memphis was the 2nd in total rebounds and 3rd in rebound% for the season. The Thunder outrebounded them by 11 in Game 1. The Thunder had 36 assists on 50 made baskets. The Grizzlies got turned over 24 times to the tune of 24 points off turnovers. They outscored Memphis 27-5 in fast-break points. It was a thrashing of monumental proportions. After the game, Grizzlies’ star Ja Morant had to reiterate, “We will never play that bad again.” Unfortunately for Morant, even if the Grizzlies get significantly better, it just may not be enough against the buzzsaw that is the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -14.5 O/U: 228.5
Injury Report
OKC Ousmane Dieng – OUT (calf) Nikola Topic – OUT (knee)
MEM Brandon Clarke – OUT (knee) Zyon Pullin – OUT (knee) Jaylen Wells – OUT (wrist)
Five Big Things
1. SGA – About the only thing the Thunder can improve upon in this game is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing better. He shot 4-13 overall and 1-7 from 3. While the Thunder didn’t necessarily need him to be the offensive engine that he is, if he plays a normal SGA game, it’ll open up the offense that much more. Which, for Memphis, has to be a terrifying thought.
2. Aaron Wiggins – If this is the Aaron Wiggins the Thunder are getting for the playoffs, start measuring the diameter of the Thunder players’ ring fingers. Wiggins didn’t even step foot on the court in the first 12 minutes of action. But as soon as he stepped on that court, a 3-pointer went in. After 21 minutes of action, he had registered 21 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists on 53/57/100 shooting splits.
3. Depth – The depth of the Thunder really showed in Game 1. It was just wave after wave of rotational NBA talent. Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, and Jaylin Williams would all be starters on a number of NBA teams. In Game 1, it was Wiggins that got the bench player of the game award. In Game 2, it could be Joe shooting the grip off the ball. In Game 3, it could be Kenrich Williams coming in and hitting some key 3’s in a tight road game. This team has been built brick by brick for this moment.
4. Quicker Pick & Roll Action – For Memphis, about the only thing that I could see working for them is quicker PnR action for Ja Morant. The PnR in the middle of the floor worked a lot better for Memphis than the action on the wings. This may mean benching Zach Edey and starting Marvin Bagley, who’s a little quicker on his feet. Giving Ja a roll man that is a little quicker than Edey may play more into Morant’s preference of pace, especially against the Thunder’s defense.
5. Dub – One of the biggest questions for the Thunder heading into Game 1 was how would Jalen Williams open up these playoffs. The expectations being heaped upon this third year player have been astronomical, but Dub came out in Game 1 and completely dominated to the tune of 20 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals and a block. He was the head of the snake in the run during the first 8 minutes of the 2nd quarter that basically put the game to bed. If this is the confidence Dub will be playing with throughout these playoffs, watch out now!
Ahhh, yes. The Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso trade. Slightly vilified on Chicago’s end early on, but slowly creeping towards being a win/win trade for both teams. After a rough start to the season, Giddey is close to averaging 20/9/8 over the past 2 months. On the flip side of things, Caruso also started off slowly, but is starting to show how valuable he can be for this team as a 3&D player and big time glue guy. Much to the chagrin of basketball Twitter, there are actually trades where it’s a win/win for both teams. Chicago got themselves a point guard to build off of in what is looking like a new rebuild. And OKC got themselves another rotation piece to put around to put around their core three of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren. OKC is having a historic season, while Chicago is becoming one of the most exciting young teams in the league. Win/Win! Giddey wasn’t going to work in OKC. He and SGA need the ball in their hands and SGA is the better player. It wasn’t Josh’s fault that he was slotted next to an eventual MVP. But in Chicago, he is able to play his brand of basketball and has flourished. I, for one, am happy for him and hope that he continues his great run of late…just not tonight.
This is the second and final meeting of the season between these two teams. The first meeting took place way early in the season, with OKC coming out victorious, 114-95.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -15.5
O/U: 238.5
Injury Report
OKC
Ousmane Dieng – OUT (calf)
Alex Ducas – OUT (quad)
Isaiah Hartenstein – Questionable (hip)
Chet Holmgren – Questionable (hip)
Ajay Mitchell – OUT (toe)
Nikola Topic – OUT (knee)
Aaron Wiggins – OUT (Achilles)
Jaylin Williams – Questionable (hip)
CHI
Lonzo Ball – OUT (wrist)
Ayo Dosunmu – OUT (shoulder)
Kevin Huerter – OUT (thumb)
Tre Jones – OUT (foot)
EJ Liddell – OUT (illness)
Three Big Things
1. Since the All-Star Break – While the Thunder have been completely dominant post-ASB, the Chicago Bulls have done a good job of handing the keys off to their players of the future and allowing them to see how they fare against the rest of the league. Giddey, Coby White, and Matas Buzelis have acclimated themselves well to their expanded roles on the team during that time and have allowed for a rosier picture to be painted for a franchise that has been mired in mediocrity for the better part of the past decade. Since the ASB, the Bulls are 11-8 and are 13th in offensive rating, 9th in defensive rating, and 10th in net rating. They are first in pace during that time, 4th in assist/turnover ratio, and 5th in defensive rebound percentage. Over the course of the season, the Bulls have changed the way they play and found a bit of a groove.
2. Pace – As mentioned above, the Bulls lead the league in pace since the All-Star break. Giddey has done a great job of late in grabbing and going, while spraying the ball out to play finishers like Buzelis, White, and Nikola Vucevic. The Thunder are usually the team that likes to run, but this may be a game where they let their halfcourt offense shine. Chicago has done a good job of protecting the ball over this past month and a half, so turnovers may not be in abundant supply in this game.
3. Big Health – With all three centers being game-time decisions today, the matchup against Vucevic may be an interesting one. I doubt all three bigs sit, but if the Thunder are prioritizing health for the playoffs, then Kenrich Williams and Branden Carlson may be the next men up.
Against all odds, against every expectation, prediction, and assumption: The Thunder are once again the #1 seed in the Western Conference.
And yet, it doesn’t really feel like it.
Sure, for us Thunder fans, it was a celebration (clap, clap, bravo) like we haven’t had in a long time. From the hilarious nature of seeding watch day, to the harrowing decimation of the Dallas Mavericks in the regular season finale, Thunder fans had/have a lot to celebrate. This is the same team after all, that was going through seeding watch day last year as well; for the 10 seed.
All year long the Thunder have faced and conquered seemingly every challenge that came their way.
But it still doesn’t seem like its enough… for some people.
Bill Simmons on his podcast could barely mention and congratulate OKC for making the 1 seed before he fell victim to an old habit of Thunder hatred, saying to his co-host Ryen Russillo definitively “OKC cannot beat the Lakers.”.
He’s not the only one who thinks that.
ESPN’s Mike Greenberg suggested on Get Up that the Lakers “should not play Lebron James, should not play Anthony Davis, they should tank the 7/8 game, they should take their chances Friday night, one and done, at home against Golden State or Sacramento and go in and play OKC (instead of playing Denver) in round one…” and as wild as that statement and ideology is, its actually began to hit an echochamber amongst the talking heads.
To Greeny’s credit, he did start the statment by saying “Give them all the credit in the world, its going to sound like I’m disrespecting them…” which kinda feels like whenever someone says “No offense, but….”
Well guess what Greeny? Offense taken. You do sound like you’re disrespecting them, because you are disrespecting them. And he’s not alone. It doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes or Nancy Drew to find someone that is picking the Thunder to not only lose in the playoffs, but to lose in round one… again.
It feels like people look at this team, they notice a couple things, and that’s what they make their assessment on. They see Shai’s (out of context, early in his career, in a different role) playoff stats, they see youth (combined age of 23.4 [youngest 1 seed in NBA history]), they see the size (or lack thereof).
I recoginize that I am not the most objective person, but I do have to objectively say that they couldn’t be further from the truth.
In fact, not only would I say that the Thunder have what it takes to make it out of the first round, regardless of who makes it out of the Play-in tournament. This team, dare I say, has all the makings of a team that could win the whole freaking thing.
In a West that’s as wide open as its ever been, the Thunder could have potentially broken the franchise record of 60 wins, if not for late season injuries to their two star players, I want you to ruminate on a question throughout the remainder of this article.
“Why not us?”
Lets dive in, shall we?
Numbers
You know the saying. Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t. And the numbers speak very highly of this young Thunder team.
3rd in Points per game: 120.1 3rd in Field goal percentage: 49.9% 1st in Three point percentage: 38.9% 4th in Free throw percentage: 82.5% (AND ONLY 17TH IN ATTEMPTS, WHERE IS THE FOUL MERCHANTRY IN THAT) 2nd in True shooting percentage: 60.8% 3rd in Effective field goal percentage: 57.3% 7th in (fewest) Turnovers per game: 12.7 1st in Steals per game: 8.5 1st in Blocks per game: 6.6 3rd in Offensive rating: 118.3 4th in Defensive rating: 111.0 2nd in Net Rating: 7.3 5th in Pace: 100.85 7th in Fastbreak points per game: 15.8 3rd in Fastbreak points (allowed) per game: 12.5 1st in Points off turnovers per game: 20.5 3rd in (fewest) Points off turnovers per game: 14.8 7th in Points in the paint per game: 52.5 7th in Points in the paint (allowed) per game: 47 2nd in Halfcourt offensive rating: 106.3 3rd in Halfcourt defensive rating: 97.3
I realize I threw a bunch of numbers and stats at you, and some of them may be confusing and out of context, but let me summarize this in three words: Them dudes good.
Allow me to elaborate.
VARIETY
One of the most dangerous things about this team is the many different areas that it excels in.
You need buckets? They are top 5 in scoring.
Opposing defenses building a wall to stop the drives? We are the best three point shooting team in the league.
Is the pace slow and possessions limited to the halfcourt due to the slowed down nature of playoffs? We’re top 5 in both halfcourt offensive and defensive rating.
Teams want to get up and down the floor? We are top 5 in pace, scoring fastbreak points, and limiting fastbreak points. Not to mention tops at steals AND blocks, so we will turn you over. Oh, and we are the best in the league at converting those turnovers into points.
You see what I’m getting at here? The Thunder excel at every single aspect of modern basketball.
So much so that what is considered one of our biggest weaknesses (rebounding) has DRASTICALLY improved. On the season we are 29th in offensive rebounds, 12th in defensive rebounds, and 27th in rebounds overall; post all-star break however things have changed. 24th in offensive rebounds, 8th in defensive rebounds, and 15th overall.
They still aren’t great numbers, but they have improved throughout the year, and prove to keep up those numbers going into the playoffs.
Shooters everywhere
Whenever the Thunder brought in renowned shooting coach Chip Engelland, all Thunder fans were worried about was the shooting improvements for Josh Giddey. Little did they know, that the entire team was about to become deadly from deep.
12 players on this Thunder squad are shooting at least 37% from 3. 10 players are shooting over 39%. 8 are shooting over 40%. 2 of them (Aaron Wiggins and Gordan Hayward) are shooting around 50%.
To put this into perspective, lets look at the 2022-2023 Thunder.
7 players shot over 37%. 6 players shot over 39%. 3 players shot over 40%. Only 1 player shot 50%, but sadly, Jared Butler only appeared in 6 games, so we do not count his contributions.
For years, Thunder fans have clamored (BEGGED!) the front office to go and acquire shooting, and at long last, they have.
They show up when it matters most:
This can be true in two different ways.
First: Clutch.
The Thunder have played in 38 games in the clutch. In those 38 games they are 24-14 for a winning percentage of 63.2%, which places them 5th in that category. All the things they do well as a team on a game to game basis, are also done well in the clutch. They score efficiently, they shoot the piss out of the ball, and they create turnovers. In a word, they are still a well oiled machine.
Part of this is because they have not one, not two, but three of the most efficient clutch performers. Of players who have taken 40 shots in the clutch (58 eligible players) Jalen Williams ranks #1 with 68.3%, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ranks #4 with 58.1%, and Chet Holmgren ranks 9th with 52.5%. That is quite literally ABSURD.
Second: They rise to the occasion
Down the stretch of the season, you saw some juggernauts, or at least seemingly superior teams, get shocked and beaten by the bottom feeders of the league. But from the time Shai and Dub returned from their injuries, this team did not play with their food, winning their last 3 games by a combined 105 points.
Not convinced? How about this stat then: The Thunder had the highest point differential in the Western conference and 2nd highest in the league at +7.4. Against the other teams in the top 10, the Thunder has the best record against teams in the top 10 going 19-8.
There is one more reason, however.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Yes, Shai has had a special season. He is the first player to do things that only Michael Jordan and Steph Curry have done in an NBA season. He leads the league in 30 point games. He lost the steals title in the final hour of the regular season. He has the efficiency of a wing player as a guard. He is still just 25 years old. His previous playoff experience was a mixed bag, first as a rookie playing against the dynasty Warriors and then as a 3rd option on a makeshift Thunder playoff team. All these things can be true, and they are. But so is this.
No matter who we are playing, we will have the best player on the floor.
Alright except for Jokic, maybe Luka. But we know Shai’s work ethic is maniacal. We know how much he likes to prove people wrong, put narratives to rest, silence his critics. I think Shai is going to come into these playoffs and just absolute dominate at every stage of the game.
He’s already been doing it all year, against whatever defender the opposing team wants to throw at him. He’s dropped 30, he’s dropped 40, he’s dropped defenders, he’s dropped game winning buckets, he has set up this expectation for us. This is his coming out party, this is the stage he needs to announce himself not only a star, or an up and coming player. Nah, bump that. This dude is a superstar, a transcendent talent, a skillset that is unique, a demeanor that does not waver. This is going to be a statement, an announcement, a coronation, an alert, and final notice that Shai is here at the top of the league, and he isn’t going anywhere. He has arrived.
And just like Shai’s arrival, so shall it be the Oklahoma City Thunder’s.
This team is built for the postseason. This roster is built for competition. This squad thrives in adversity.
They have every excuse not to win it all. They’re too young. They overachieved. They needed this loss. But all season long, this team has flipped the script on every excuse given to them.
Chet could have sat games, but he played all 82. Cason could’ve developed in the G league, like most rookies do. Instead, he also played rotational minutes in all 82 games. Isaiah Joe could have been just a 3 point shooter, but he’s also top-10 in charges taken. Jaylin Williams could have sulked in the fact he didn’t get much playing time early on, but, instead, he stayed with it and became one of the Thunder’s most impactful players post all-star break. Josh Giddey could’ve let his off court drama, and his ego get the best of him when things were at their worst. Instead, he changed his mentality and play style, and now, and he and the team are thriving. Aaron Wiggins could have let the fact that he was the 55th pick, or the fact that he was still catching DNP’s early this season affect his game, but he stepped up every minute he’s on the court and is now widely considered one of the most underrated players in basketball.
This team doesn’t care how many MVP’s are in the way. This team doesn’t care about how many games they have or haven’t played in the playoffs. This team doesn’t care about how young they are. This team doesn’t care about the haters, the expectations, the predictions, or the assumptions about them. This team doesn’t need your excuses.
They have what they need, and they’re ready to rise to the occasion once more in the quest for 16 wins.
And with every pass, dribble, three pointer, dunk, crossover, block, steal, and scream at the raucous crowd of Loud City, they will play the game like they belong here. They will play the game with dominance and defiance.
All-Star Weekend is in the rear view. And all in all, it was a fun weekend for Thunder fans.
Cason Wallace helped bring Team Pau back from its early deficit to Team Detlef, and was then scapegoated for not being able to carry a team of top 3 picks back from the early hole it dug itself.
Chet Holmgren contributed to Team Jalen’s ultimate victory in a variety of ways. Layups, blocks, windmills. Just not lobs. Maybe just catch those for now, Chettar Bob.
Jalen Williams showed he is a 2-way demon, knocking down middies, 3-balls, spreading the ball around, being an on-ball pest, and off-ball menace. All in route to knocking down the game winning 3-pointer, showing the world what “Dub Time” is. Dub, indeed.
Then of course, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put on a show in his first (hopefully of many) starts in the All-Star game. The antithesis of his game was on full display. Instead of acrobatic finishes through contact and an assault of mid-range jumpers, it was an uncharacteristically scorching hot 7/10 shooting from the 3 point line and an array of high flying dunks, including a self alley-oop off the glass… IN TRAFFIC!
Yes, All-Star Weekend couldn’t have gone better for Thunder fans, sans Isaiah Joe being in the 3-point contest. And the weekend’s series of events is enough to get the fans excited for the return from All-Star break on Thursday against our rivals, the Los Angeles Clippers. But through the excitement of the break, people have forgotten that the Thunder may or may not have added the piece that takes this team from young and fun overachievers, to bonafide contenders in the Western Conference.
Last week, the Thunder…
SIGNED BISMACK BIYOMBO!
That’s right! We are getting Bizzy with it! With our big Biyombro, we will be standing on Bizness for 48 minutes. *angry emoji with smoke coming out of nose*
As excited as I am for Biyombo, because of his ability to fill a role and his ability to raise the overall vibes for any locker room, it’s another move that this article is based around.
The trade that sent Tre Mann, Vasilije Micic, and Davis Bertans to Charlotte in exchange for none other than Gordon Hayward.
This trade is already a sore subject for Thunder fans. Tre had become a fan favorite, from his highlight reel dunks and stepback, to his fun and vibey personality on the bench and online. There were many (yours, truly included) that were sad to see him go. He has done well in his opportunities with the Hornets since then, making it hurt just a little more.
Micic, while he hasn’t been as consistent, has flashed many moments that have Thunder fans envying the former Euroleague MVP for the playoff run. And then you have Bertans, who has been fine, I guess.
On the Thunder side, we haven’t as much seen Hayward in a Thunder jersey. But I’ve been watching some film on him from this season. Not as a Celtic or during the Obama administration in Utah. No, from the 2023-24 NBA season, just to clear things up. While the name isn’t as big, flashy, or coveted as some of the other names around the league, his tape tells me Hayward is going to fit this team seamlessly.
Playmaker:
Not including his rookie year, Gordo (gotta find a nickname for this guy, let me live) hasn’t averaged less than 3 assists per game. This season, before he got hurt, he was averaging 4.6 assists per game. Which would be 2nd highest in his career (and .1 more than Josh Giddey has…).
There’s not much flashy about Gorgon’s passing. He doesn’t really bring the ball up the court and he doesn’t try to pretend to be Steve Nash. While he doesn’t always make jaw dropping, high level reads, he is constantly moving the ball and often times creating scoring opportunities for his teammates as the secondary, or even, tertiary creator.
While he isn’t necessarily a maestro with the basketball, Hayward can more than hold his own as a playmaker.
He gets it done in a variety of ways. Off the drive, off the catch, touch passes, in transition, dump offs, entry passes, the whole shebang.
Despite what the video above would lead you to believe, Hayward’s passes don’t lead to buckets 100% of the time, I’m sorry to deceive you.
But what’s important, and why he fits with the Thunder in this regard is, the ball doesn’t stick with him. There is no record scratch. He isn’t a ball stopper. He simply gets the ball, he drives it, he shoots it, or he quickly makes a pass.
Based on the tape above he’s going to create a lot of easy looks for Chet, Dub, Ous, Wiggs, and Boom (Jaylin Williams for those uninitiated). But he’s also going to be able to put Shai, Giddey, and Dub in scoring, and playmaking scenarios just with his willingness and participation of moving the ball around.
Shut up and drive:
When you watch a guy like Shai or Jalen Williams, you always hear the commentators talk about how relentless they are with their straight line drives to the basket. Shai has led the league in total drives going on 4 seasons, and even in his first season with the team, he still ranked 10th in the league. Dub, has a bit more variety to his game with the willingness to shoot a higher volume from deep, but particularly in late game situations, the gearshift is on D for him as well.
If you watch Gordon Bombay (yeah, that one felt wrong) you can tell he’s cut from that same cloth. While he can’t even smell the exhaust from Shai’s tailpipe at 23.9 drives per game, he is not far behind from Dub (12.6) with 10.8 drives per game.
While he adds some variety to his game in post work, catch and shoot, etc., a lot of his playmaking, as evidenced by the video in the playmaking section, is dependent of his drives.
Even at age 33, Hayward is a strong driver to the basket.
It’s no wonder he is constantly driving, as the Warden (I saw it on Twitter/X, I’m not married to it) is shooting an impressive 69.3% at the rim this year. To put that into perspective, Shai is shooting 66.5%. Dub is shooting 66.3%. Chet is shooting 71.7%. And the finishing god squad of Cason, Ous, and Joe are shooting 72.8, 73.9, 76.5 respectively. And since you keep bugging me, Giddey is shooting 55.2%.
Cut to the chase:
Wiggs made his early career off of knowing how to cut to the basket. OKC has plenty other really good cutters. Dub, Cason, Kenny, and even Giddey have shown some juice as cutters this year.
He’s no Edward Scissorshands, but my Hayward son (you see it) is a stealthy good cutter, and sneaky effective at it. Snake eyes (yeah this is bad, just having fun with the last sentence) averages 1.47 points per possession, while shooting 75%, on cuts but only at a frequency of 4.5%. For perspective, Shai is averaging 1.67 PPP on 80.8% shooting on 2% frequency. The aforementioned Aaron Wiggins is shockingly averaging only 1.3 PPP on 64.7% shooting, but on a team leading 15.6% frequency.
Hayward is literally playing Fruit Ninja with NBA defenses.
LaMelo Ball is a phenomenal playmaker. But he is one man. The Thunder’s entire roster has some playmaking juice. Pair that with his basketball IQ and understanding of space, and you have a smart and opportune cutter to add to the death by 1000 basket cuts.
There are a lot of things to like about Hayward. His shooting, while percentages are a tad down at 36.1%, he is shooting 40.8% on catch and shoot 3’s, 41.2% from the corners, and 42.4% on open 3-point jumpers.
He is averaging almost 5 rebounds per game, which will help a bit with that side of things. As well as averaging 1.1 steals per game. With guys like Dort and Dub at the point of attack and Chet as the back line, Hayward should be able to generate a number of steals for this already stingy defense.
Overall, the fit is very nice. And the price for the trade, with the flexibility to possibly re-sign him moving forward, makes the deal a no brainer.
Gordon Hayward is the type of player that can add one more punch to the Thunder’s push to the finals.
And if all I’ve said above comes to fruition, that punch may just end up being a Haymaker.
Hmmm, Haymaker.
I LIKE IT.
Special shoutout to @derthun_ and @homahoops for showing me the ways of the force and video editing. Be sure to follow them for great Thunder content. As well as me @ThunderChats, and my podcast @OKCTopicThunder. Thunder up.
