Streaks: DAL: 3 W’s in a row, 5-5 in last 10 / OKC: 13 W’s in a row
The Set-Up
The decision for when to start a rebuild has to be an extremely difficult one for an organization. Sometimes, it’s self-inflicted. Sometimes, it’s thrust upon you unexpectedly. But it’s a decision fraught with potholes, pitfalls, and doubt. A decision that can set your franchise back years, possibly decades. And, yet, for most every team, it’s a decision that needs to be made once every 10-15 years. For Oklahoma City, the team knew they needed a refresh after the departure of Kevin Durant and the subsequent first round exits of the Russell Westbrook/Paul George-led teams. But that weird transitional season was also needed to get off the previous train and jump onto a new one. The season with Chris Paul, a newly acquired Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, rookie Lu Dort, potential 6th Man of the Year Dennis Schroder, and Steven Adams is one that lives happily in the minds of many Thunder fans, but also one that helped position the Thunder for what they currently are today.
Which brings me to the neighbors south of us, down I-35. Dallas is in a weird spot where they have some of the pieces needed to jump-start a rebuild (Cooper Flagg and Ryan Nembhard), but also are in a holding pattern with older stars such as Anthony Davis, Klay Thompson, and the currently injured Kyrie Irving. They aren’t winning, but they also aren’t losing enough. These next few months before the trade deadline will be very interesting in Dallas.
This is the 2nd of 3 meetings this season between these regional rivals. OKC won the first meeting 101-94, in Dallas, in a game that saw the Thunder big men dominate on the scoreboard and on the glass. Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Jaylin Williams combined to score 38 points and grab 30 rebounds, with 6 of those being offensive.
Ryan Nembhard – Last season, in the Finals, no players on the Indiana Pacers, outside of Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakim, had more of an impact against the Thunder than Andrew Nembhard. Dallas decided to take a chance on Andrew’s younger brother, Ryan, as an undrafted free agent this past summer. And over the past four games, all starts, Ryan Nembhard has been balling out and leading the Mavericks to a 3-1 record over that stretch. Nembhard has been averaging 17 points, 7.5 assists to 1.3 turnovers, and shooting an absurd 65% from the field and 67% from three over that 4-game stretch. The one game where he did struggle during that 4-game stretch was against the Los Angeles Clippers, who have big rangy defenders like Kris Dunn who can make life difficult for a smaller point guard. With Dort and Alex Caruso out, that onus will fall on Cason Wallace and Ajay Mitchell.
Comfortable Dub – The more games Jalen Williams gets under his belt, the more comfortable and in rhythm he gets. He hit the 20 point mark in their last game against the Warriors, scoring 22 points. His playmaking has been in mid-season form, as he’s averaging over 6 assists per game in his first 3 games. And his shooting percentage was above 50% for the first time this season in their last game. Everyone is asking whether the Thunder should throw their hat into the Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstake, but honestly, Dub coming back may be their important “acquisition” this season.
Upset Potential – The Mavericks are coming into this game the hottest they’ve been all season. They are riding a 3-game winning streak, Nembhard, Cooper Flagg, and Anthony Davis are all balling out, and Dallas’ defense has been consistent. You can almost always throw records out when it comes to regional rivalries and the Thunder have the biggest target on their back this season. OKC has been a little unfocused over the past few games and if that continues, it could come back to bite them in the butt this game.
Regional rivalries. The rivalries that never die, regardless of record. Think OU vs. Texas, Indiana vs. Detroit, New York vs. Boston, etc. Timeless classics where civic fandom shines the brightest. Yeah, “era rivalries” are fun, but they are like fireworks: they look great when they are being shot off, but a day later, no one really cares or reminisces too much about them. Even though both are currently still good teams, there is no fervent clamoring for Cleveland vs. Golden State.
OKC vs. Dallas has always been a fun rivalry. The Battle of I-35. Since the existence of the Thunder, both teams have been chockful of great, MVP-level players and championship contention. Both teams have won a championship during that time. And both team are hellbent on winning another. Here’s to another 18 years of regional hate/respect.
This is the first of three meetings this season between the Thunder and Mavs. The Mavs were the only team in the league last season to defeat the Thunder three times in the regular season. The Thunder’s lone victory: the NBA Cup quarterfinals. Got to win the ones that count.
Weakness vs. Strength – The Thunder are probably the best perimeter defense in the league. The Mavericks, who currently don’t have a healthy point guard on the roster, average 19 turnovers per game and have a rookie power forward running point. Now mind you, that rookie power forward is number one pick Cooper Flagg and his tenure as the team’s starting point guard has improved with each game played. But still, the Thunder should find ways to turn the Mavericks over and turn defense into offense pretty consistently in this game.
PJ Washington – Definitely up there in the pantheon of Thunder killers. For some reason, the man has a hatred for Oklahoma City. Since joining the Mavericks around the 2024 trade deadline, Washington is averaging 17.4 points and 9.4 rebounds, while shooting 41.7% from three whenever he plays against OKC (to include the playoffs). In addition, Dallas has won five games in a row against the Thunder when Washington plays and 8 of 11 overall during his Mavs tenure. As much as we don’t want to make it a thing, it’s a little bit of a thing.
Ajay Mitchell – There’s a saying in the NBA where if you want to see if a player is actually good, that you need to wait at least 10 games to see if his quality of play continues after that. Reason being is that once NBA coaches get ten games worth of film on a player, they usually have mapped out ways to defend the player. In three games this season, Mitchell has been a revelation, averaging 18.7 points, 4 rebounds, and 4.3 assists on 42% shooting from deep while providing OKC with the secondary ball-handler they so desperately needed with the absence of Jalen Williams. It’ll be interesting to see how teams start to defend Mitchell now, knowing he is the team’s 2nd best play-maker and ball-handler. Conversely, it’ll be interesting to watch Mitchell’s counters to what defenses throw at him now.
Rewind back to Game 5 against the Dallas Mavericks last year. The Thunder were coming off a hard-fought, comeback victory in Game 4 on the road to tie that series at 2 games. The momentum was definitely in OKC’s favor. Heading back home for Game 5. This is what teams fight all regular season for: that home court advantage. And it started off good. OKC up 8-2 two minutes into that game. It quickly went downhill from there. Dallas was up by 12 entering the 4th quarter and went up by as much as 15 points. OKC fought back as best they could, cutting the deficit to 7, but ultimately couldn’t get over that hump as Dallas won the game 104-92.
When you juxtapose that to this series, it was nearly identical. The Thunder won a hard-fought, comeback victory in Game 4 on the road to tie the series at 2 games apiece. Momentum firmly on OKC’s side. And the Thunder started Game 5 off like they were trying to replicate the buzzsaw performance that was Game 2. OKC was up 12-2 with 7:58 left in the first quarter when Denver took their first timeout of the game. And then the fun stopped. Nikola Jokic went into MVP form, Jamal Murray remembered that he usually performs well in the playoffs, and the Thunder’s shooting dried up. Heading into the fourth quarter, the Thunder found themselves down by 8 points. Denver tacked on one more point to the lead with 10 minutes left in the game.
And then it happened. The Thunder weren’t going to let the demons from last season haunt them. The Thunder found their will. And that will’s name was Lu Dort. Three straight threes from Dort brought the Thunder within two with 6 minutes left to play. That momentum shift affected the whole team, but probably, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander the most. From that point, he was the Shai we’ve seen all season. The MVP. The defense locked in and the offense opened up. An Isaiah Hartenstein alley-oop dunk. A Chet Holmgren layup. A Jalen Williams 3. Some SGA middies. And SGA 3 (finally!). What was a 9-point deficit with 8:25 left in the game turned into a 7-point victory. This wasn’t going to be a repeat of last year. On to Game 6…with a 3-2 series lead.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -4.5
O/U: 216.5
Injury Report
OKC Nikola Topic – OUT (knee)
DEN DaRon Holmes – OUT (Achilles) Hunter Tyson – OUT (ankle)
Three Big Things
1. Decisiveness on Offense – While we’ve seen Shai Gilgeous-Alexander be Superman this season, we’ve also seen his possible kryptonite in this series against the Nuggets. When Denver forces SGA to think, even if it’s just for a second, it throws off his rhythm just enough for them to send one or two extra defenders his way and either get the ball out of his hands or force him into a live grenade situation. SGA has been most successful when he’s allowed to make a quick decision and play his natural game. This usually occurs when he’s off-ball, receives the ball on the move, and is usually accompanied by a high screen from Isaiah Hartenstein that allows him that sliver of space he needs to do what he likes. We’ve seen this late in the game in Games 4 and 5. It’s a possibility that by that point in the game he’s figured out the defense. It’s also a possibility that by that point, Denver is too exhausted to keep up with him and he takes advantage of them being a step slower. Whatever it is, he needs to do is earlier and more consistently throughout the game.
2. Desperation Jokic – If you guys thought Nikola Jokic was insufferable in Game 5 with all the foul-baiting and what not, you haven’t seen nothing yet. Jokic is a shark and when Denver gets into the bonus, it’s like he smells blood. It’s what great scorers do. SGA has 43 free throws in this series and Jokic has 41. But Jokic’s style of play and position lend him to hunt and seek contact more than SGA. If you thought the arm-locking and flailing was bad in Game 5, prepare yourself.
3. Close It Out! – Don’t put yourself in a position for a winner take all game. Too many variables can occur in those games that can negate home court advantage. An ankle sprain here, foul trouble there. If you are in the driver’s seat, go ahead and close it out. Will it be easy? Of course not. But the alternative is even more nerve-wracking.
Against all odds, against every expectation, prediction, and assumption: The Thunder are once again the #1 seed in the Western Conference.
And yet, it doesn’t really feel like it.
Sure, for us Thunder fans, it was a celebration (clap, clap, bravo) like we haven’t had in a long time. From the hilarious nature of seeding watch day, to the harrowing decimation of the Dallas Mavericks in the regular season finale, Thunder fans had/have a lot to celebrate. This is the same team after all, that was going through seeding watch day last year as well; for the 10 seed.
All year long the Thunder have faced and conquered seemingly every challenge that came their way.
But it still doesn’t seem like its enough… for some people.
Bill Simmons on his podcast could barely mention and congratulate OKC for making the 1 seed before he fell victim to an old habit of Thunder hatred, saying to his co-host Ryen Russillo definitively “OKC cannot beat the Lakers.”.
He’s not the only one who thinks that.
ESPN’s Mike Greenberg suggested on Get Up that the Lakers “should not play Lebron James, should not play Anthony Davis, they should tank the 7/8 game, they should take their chances Friday night, one and done, at home against Golden State or Sacramento and go in and play OKC (instead of playing Denver) in round one…” and as wild as that statement and ideology is, its actually began to hit an echochamber amongst the talking heads.
To Greeny’s credit, he did start the statment by saying “Give them all the credit in the world, its going to sound like I’m disrespecting them…” which kinda feels like whenever someone says “No offense, but….”
Well guess what Greeny? Offense taken. You do sound like you’re disrespecting them, because you are disrespecting them. And he’s not alone. It doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes or Nancy Drew to find someone that is picking the Thunder to not only lose in the playoffs, but to lose in round one… again.
It feels like people look at this team, they notice a couple things, and that’s what they make their assessment on. They see Shai’s (out of context, early in his career, in a different role) playoff stats, they see youth (combined age of 23.4 [youngest 1 seed in NBA history]), they see the size (or lack thereof).
I recoginize that I am not the most objective person, but I do have to objectively say that they couldn’t be further from the truth.
In fact, not only would I say that the Thunder have what it takes to make it out of the first round, regardless of who makes it out of the Play-in tournament. This team, dare I say, has all the makings of a team that could win the whole freaking thing.
In a West that’s as wide open as its ever been, the Thunder could have potentially broken the franchise record of 60 wins, if not for late season injuries to their two star players, I want you to ruminate on a question throughout the remainder of this article.
“Why not us?”
Lets dive in, shall we?
Numbers
You know the saying. Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t. And the numbers speak very highly of this young Thunder team.
3rd in Points per game: 120.1 3rd in Field goal percentage: 49.9% 1st in Three point percentage: 38.9% 4th in Free throw percentage: 82.5% (AND ONLY 17TH IN ATTEMPTS, WHERE IS THE FOUL MERCHANTRY IN THAT) 2nd in True shooting percentage: 60.8% 3rd in Effective field goal percentage: 57.3% 7th in (fewest) Turnovers per game: 12.7 1st in Steals per game: 8.5 1st in Blocks per game: 6.6 3rd in Offensive rating: 118.3 4th in Defensive rating: 111.0 2nd in Net Rating: 7.3 5th in Pace: 100.85 7th in Fastbreak points per game: 15.8 3rd in Fastbreak points (allowed) per game: 12.5 1st in Points off turnovers per game: 20.5 3rd in (fewest) Points off turnovers per game: 14.8 7th in Points in the paint per game: 52.5 7th in Points in the paint (allowed) per game: 47 2nd in Halfcourt offensive rating: 106.3 3rd in Halfcourt defensive rating: 97.3
I realize I threw a bunch of numbers and stats at you, and some of them may be confusing and out of context, but let me summarize this in three words: Them dudes good.
Allow me to elaborate.
VARIETY
One of the most dangerous things about this team is the many different areas that it excels in.
You need buckets? They are top 5 in scoring.
Opposing defenses building a wall to stop the drives? We are the best three point shooting team in the league.
Is the pace slow and possessions limited to the halfcourt due to the slowed down nature of playoffs? We’re top 5 in both halfcourt offensive and defensive rating.
Teams want to get up and down the floor? We are top 5 in pace, scoring fastbreak points, and limiting fastbreak points. Not to mention tops at steals AND blocks, so we will turn you over. Oh, and we are the best in the league at converting those turnovers into points.
You see what I’m getting at here? The Thunder excel at every single aspect of modern basketball.
So much so that what is considered one of our biggest weaknesses (rebounding) has DRASTICALLY improved. On the season we are 29th in offensive rebounds, 12th in defensive rebounds, and 27th in rebounds overall; post all-star break however things have changed. 24th in offensive rebounds, 8th in defensive rebounds, and 15th overall.
They still aren’t great numbers, but they have improved throughout the year, and prove to keep up those numbers going into the playoffs.
Shooters everywhere
Whenever the Thunder brought in renowned shooting coach Chip Engelland, all Thunder fans were worried about was the shooting improvements for Josh Giddey. Little did they know, that the entire team was about to become deadly from deep.
12 players on this Thunder squad are shooting at least 37% from 3. 10 players are shooting over 39%. 8 are shooting over 40%. 2 of them (Aaron Wiggins and Gordan Hayward) are shooting around 50%.
To put this into perspective, lets look at the 2022-2023 Thunder.
7 players shot over 37%. 6 players shot over 39%. 3 players shot over 40%. Only 1 player shot 50%, but sadly, Jared Butler only appeared in 6 games, so we do not count his contributions.
For years, Thunder fans have clamored (BEGGED!) the front office to go and acquire shooting, and at long last, they have.
They show up when it matters most:
This can be true in two different ways.
First: Clutch.
The Thunder have played in 38 games in the clutch. In those 38 games they are 24-14 for a winning percentage of 63.2%, which places them 5th in that category. All the things they do well as a team on a game to game basis, are also done well in the clutch. They score efficiently, they shoot the piss out of the ball, and they create turnovers. In a word, they are still a well oiled machine.
Part of this is because they have not one, not two, but three of the most efficient clutch performers. Of players who have taken 40 shots in the clutch (58 eligible players) Jalen Williams ranks #1 with 68.3%, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ranks #4 with 58.1%, and Chet Holmgren ranks 9th with 52.5%. That is quite literally ABSURD.
Second: They rise to the occasion
Down the stretch of the season, you saw some juggernauts, or at least seemingly superior teams, get shocked and beaten by the bottom feeders of the league. But from the time Shai and Dub returned from their injuries, this team did not play with their food, winning their last 3 games by a combined 105 points.
Not convinced? How about this stat then: The Thunder had the highest point differential in the Western conference and 2nd highest in the league at +7.4. Against the other teams in the top 10, the Thunder has the best record against teams in the top 10 going 19-8.
There is one more reason, however.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Yes, Shai has had a special season. He is the first player to do things that only Michael Jordan and Steph Curry have done in an NBA season. He leads the league in 30 point games. He lost the steals title in the final hour of the regular season. He has the efficiency of a wing player as a guard. He is still just 25 years old. His previous playoff experience was a mixed bag, first as a rookie playing against the dynasty Warriors and then as a 3rd option on a makeshift Thunder playoff team. All these things can be true, and they are. But so is this.
No matter who we are playing, we will have the best player on the floor.
Alright except for Jokic, maybe Luka. But we know Shai’s work ethic is maniacal. We know how much he likes to prove people wrong, put narratives to rest, silence his critics. I think Shai is going to come into these playoffs and just absolute dominate at every stage of the game.
He’s already been doing it all year, against whatever defender the opposing team wants to throw at him. He’s dropped 30, he’s dropped 40, he’s dropped defenders, he’s dropped game winning buckets, he has set up this expectation for us. This is his coming out party, this is the stage he needs to announce himself not only a star, or an up and coming player. Nah, bump that. This dude is a superstar, a transcendent talent, a skillset that is unique, a demeanor that does not waver. This is going to be a statement, an announcement, a coronation, an alert, and final notice that Shai is here at the top of the league, and he isn’t going anywhere. He has arrived.
And just like Shai’s arrival, so shall it be the Oklahoma City Thunder’s.
This team is built for the postseason. This roster is built for competition. This squad thrives in adversity.
They have every excuse not to win it all. They’re too young. They overachieved. They needed this loss. But all season long, this team has flipped the script on every excuse given to them.
Chet could have sat games, but he played all 82. Cason could’ve developed in the G league, like most rookies do. Instead, he also played rotational minutes in all 82 games. Isaiah Joe could have been just a 3 point shooter, but he’s also top-10 in charges taken. Jaylin Williams could have sulked in the fact he didn’t get much playing time early on, but, instead, he stayed with it and became one of the Thunder’s most impactful players post all-star break. Josh Giddey could’ve let his off court drama, and his ego get the best of him when things were at their worst. Instead, he changed his mentality and play style, and now, and he and the team are thriving. Aaron Wiggins could have let the fact that he was the 55th pick, or the fact that he was still catching DNP’s early this season affect his game, but he stepped up every minute he’s on the court and is now widely considered one of the most underrated players in basketball.
This team doesn’t care how many MVP’s are in the way. This team doesn’t care about how many games they have or haven’t played in the playoffs. This team doesn’t care about how young they are. This team doesn’t care about the haters, the expectations, the predictions, or the assumptions about them. This team doesn’t need your excuses.
They have what they need, and they’re ready to rise to the occasion once more in the quest for 16 wins.
And with every pass, dribble, three pointer, dunk, crossover, block, steal, and scream at the raucous crowd of Loud City, they will play the game like they belong here. They will play the game with dominance and defiance.
In a recent interview, Thunder head coach talked about the team’s philosophy on sustained success as “stringing days together”. To start each day with a 0-0 mentality and go from there. That type of thinking has permeated through the entire team and this is where they find themselves: on the brink of being the No. 1 seed in the West. If for nothing else, that should make coach Daigneault the Coach of the Year this season.
This is the fourth and final regular season meeting between these two teams. The Thunder currently lead the season series 2-1.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -19.5
O/U: 225
Injury Report
OKC
None
DAL
Greg Brown III – OUT
Luka Doncic – OUT
Dante Exum – OUT
Daniel Gafford – OUT
Kyrie Irving – OUT
Derrick Jones Jr. – OUT
Maxi Kleber – OUT
Dereck Lively II – OUT
P.J. Washington – OUT
Three Big Things
1. Stay Healthy – The most important thing heading into the playoffs is health. DON’T GET HURT!
Scoreboard Watching – The only way we get screwed over is if Denver loses. If we win and Denver wins, the Thunder end up at one. Supposedly, Denver is looking to play most of their guys. So we shall see.
Reflective – Be proud of our guys. This young team has played with a maturity beyond their years. Hopefully, great things incoming for this team.
The Play-In tournament is working. Even though the post-season participants have been known for a while now, the positioning of the majority of those teams is still in the air. And that makes games in April matter. Whether it’s trying to avoid the 9/10 game or trying to avoid the play-in games altogether, most teams are still playing with fervor with 1-2 games left to play. That was basically unheard of in years past. April games were very similar to summer league games, where NBA hopefuls and team developmental players would get their opportunity to shine. Now we are still seeing guys like LeBron and Steph battle it out trying to move up out of the 9/10 game. It makes for a fun 82-game season, instead of the usual 75-game season plus 7-game G-League showcase at the end of the season.
This is the 2nd and final meeting of the season between these two teams. The Thunder were soundly defeated by the Bucks in late March by a score of 118-93. A game in which the Thunder likely played their worst third quarter of the season, getting outscored 34-17 and shooting just 24% from the field for those 12 minutes.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -14.5
O/U: 223.5
Injury Report
OKC
Josh Giddey (hip) – Questionable
MIL
Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) – OUT
AJ Green (ankle) – OUT
Damian Lillard (adductor) – OUT
Three Big Things
Playoff Seeding – Milwaukee and OKC find themselves in similar situations when it comes to playoff seeding. OKC still has the opportunity to get the No. 1 seed in the West, but would need a divine miracle for the Nuggets to lose to both the Spurs and Grizzlies in their last two games of the season. The battle for No. 2 and 3 likely hinges on how serious the Thunder and Timberwolves take these last two games. Both teams are tied as far as record is concerned, but Minnesota holds the tie-breaker due to their better conference record. Minnesota plays Atlanta, who is already locked into the 10th seed in the East, and Phoenix, who could still be battling for the 6th seed in the West. OKC plays Milwaukee, who is still battling for the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the East, and Dallas, who is basically locked into the 5th seed in the West. OKC would need to win out and hope Minnesota loses one of their last two games in order to secure the 2nd seed.
SGA – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has played with so much vigor since he returned from a 4-game absence due to a quad injury. In the two games he’s played (on a back to back, at that), SGA has averaged 33 points, 7 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 2 stocks on 54/50/84 shooting splits. That burst with zero hesitation on the drives is back. And so is the swag of the team. When Sacramento had the Thunder down by 20 in the first half on Tuesday, you just had the feeling that SGA would will the Thunder back. When he is on, the Thunder have a different feel about them.
Bobby “Michael Jordan” Portis – For the season, Bobby Portis is averaging 13.9 points and 7.4 rebounds. But for some reason, in the seven games Giannis Antetokounmpo has missed, Bobby Portis turns into Robert Portis with a grown man game. In those seven games, Portis averages 23.7 points and 10.4 rebounds. Here’s hoping he has a Bobby Portis game and not a Robert Portis game.
The I-35 rivalry. The rivalry that is created because of location. Because of distance. But, luckily, for us fans, this rivalry has usually been a good one. The KD game-winner in the playoffs. Dirk completely decimating the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals on his way to his only championship. The various playoff match-ups. The Lu Dort defense on Luka. The Isaiah Joe game.
Luckily for all of us, there appears to be another rivalry budding with this current iteration. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have given the Mavs two superstar players that have performed at the top of their profession in every scenario possible in their careers. Luka finally has a collection of players around him that seem to complement his style of play. But Lu Dort awaits….
And Isaiah Joe.
Season Series: This is the first of four meetings between the Mavericks and Thunder this season
Betting Info
Line: OKC -4.5
Spread: O/U 235.5
Injury Report
OKC
None
DAL
Dante Exum (personal) – OUT
Josh Green (elbow) – Day to Day
Tim Hardaway Jr (back) – Day to Day
Kyrie Irving (foot) – Day to Day
Maxi Kleber (toe) – OUT
Three Big Things
Luka Doncic – Luka is having another amazing season. Of the 5 players in the league that are averaging over 30 points per game, Luka and SGA are two of them. In games past, though, Luka has struggled with efficiency when playing against the Thunder. A lot of that can be attributed to Lu Dort’s defense. Doncic’s physical style suits Dort’s defense more than a fast, twitchy offensive player.
Rebounding Battle – Neither of these two teams are good at rebounding, with both being at or near the bottom of most rebounding categories. But the Thunder has shown improvement and effort in the rebounding department over the past week or so. It has allowed them to blow some teams out that were also near the bottom of those statistics with them.
Chet – For some reason, I feel like this is a game where Chet can dominate. Not just in the scoring department, but also in all the things big men are supposed to do well (rebounding, interior defense, etc). The Mavs will be trotting out rookie Derrick Lively and Dwight Powell. Lively has been a lot better than I expected this season. And Powell is a good, aging veteran. It just feels like Chet will dominate over these two tonight.
Exactly a week ago, in the preview of the Oklahoma City Thunder’s game against the San Antonio Spurs, I wrote that if the Thunder had visions of getting higher than the 8th seed, then that game would be one of the more important ones remaining in the regular season. The Thunder then proceeded to crap the bed in San Antonio (and in Utah two nights later), thus killing any chance the Thunder had of catching the Spurs. But, lo and behold, a week later, the Thunder find themselves in the exact same position. The Thunder currently sit three games back of the Dallas Mavericks with 8 games to play. Win tonight and that number goes down to 2, with Dallas facing a tough schedule in their next 4 games (v. Memphis, Golden State, Phoenix, and @Denver). While Oklahoma City’s schedule isn’t necessarily a cake walk either, the possibility is there for the Thunder to make up some ground.
This will be the 4th and final meeting of the season between these two cross-state rivals. The Mavericks currently lead the season series 2-1, with each team winning on their respective home floors.
The Opponent
The Dallas Mavericks come into the game with a 45-29 record, good for 7th in the Western Conference. They boast one of the top offenses in the league (3rd in points per game at 104.1 and 5th in offensive rating), while having a middle of the road defense (21st in opponents’ points per game at 100.9 and 17th in defensive rating). The team has struggled in finding consistency since acquiring Rajon Rondo from Boston on December 20th. Before Rondo, the Mavs were 19-8. Since then, they are just 26-21. Dallas was hoping to get the Rondo that dominated in Boston from 2009-2012. Instead, they’ve gotten the “not fully recovered from knee surgery” version that still believes he’s one of the top point guards in the league. The chemistry between Rondo and back-court mate Monta Ellis has been shaky, at best. From the beginning of the season through January 31st, Ellis averaged 20.5 points per game on 46.1% FG shooting. In February and March, Ellis’ numbers slipped to 16.4 points on 40.2% FG shooting. Some of that could possibly be attributed to a buildup of nagging injuries, but a lot of that has to do with the apparent bad fit of Rondo and Ellis. After struggling a bit in the beginning of the season, Chandler Parsons’ numbers have begun to climb as his role has increased within the flow of the Dallas offense. Even though he’s getting long in the tooth, Dirk Nowitzki is still someone you have to game plan for and not leave open in critical situations. Up front, Tyson Chandler is still churning out double-doubles, averaging 10 points and 11.4 rebounds per game. The Dallas bench is full of crafty vets like JJ Barea, Amar’e Stoudemire, Devin Harris, and Richard Jefferson.
Probable Starting Line-Ups
Dallas Mavericks
PG – Rajon Rondo
SG – Monta Ellis
SF – Chandler Parsons
PF – Dirk Nowitzki
C – Tyson Chandler
Oklahoma City Thunder
PG – Russell Westbrook
SG – Dion Waiters
SF – Kyle Singler
PF – Enes Kanter
C – Steven Adams
Three Things
1. Defense on Nowitzki –There are three players on the Thunder that can effectively guard Nowitzki. And all three (Kevin Durant, Nick Collison, and Serge Ibaka) are injured. Hell, the wild card that has been used on stretch 4’s to close out games recently, Andre Roberson, is also on the mend. That leaves the Thunder in a bit of pickle in terms of defending Dirk. Put Kanter or Mitch McGary on him, and the Mavs will either pick and pop him to death on the perimeter or drive around him to the basket. Adams would probably be the best choice, but putting him on the perimeter can cause problems for the Thunder defense. Perry Jones is too undisciplined and Kyle Singler, who performed admirably against Markieff Morris in the second half of the Suns’ game, would likely be too short. It may turn into a difficult game against Nowitzki.
2. Transition –One thing that usually trumps age is speed. With Westbrook leading the charge, the Thunder should be aiming to get a ton of points in transition. This will keep the Dallas defense off-kilter and will allow Westbrook to not only find openings into the paint, but also find open teammates. We lose this game if Westbrook doesn’t get his assist total into the double digits.
3. Hack-a-Rondo –Thunder coach Scott Brooks has never shied away from using the Hack-a-(player) ploy to try to get back into games. Since arriving in Dallas, Rondo is shooting just 39.4% from the FT line. If the Thunder find themselves in a close game in the 4th quarter, look for them to deploy this tactics on Rondo.
In a season that started off with championship aspirations, the Oklahoma City Thunder still find themselves in a position to achieve that goal, albeit a lot lower in the standings than previously envisioned. If healthy, the Thunder would clearly be atop the Western Conference standings. But as is the case when the words, “if healthy,” are used, the Thunder this season have been anything but healthy. Of the players currently on the roster, the Thunder have lost about 164 games due to injury. That figure would likely rival the last 5 seasons combined. Regardless of all of this, though, the Thunder are still firmly entrenched in the 8th spot of the Western Conference with 10 games to play. Their magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 8.
Anytime you are in the middle of a playoff race, you always have to look at the teams you are trying to gain ground on and the teams that are looking to gain ground on you. You watch out for, not only your team’s scores, but also the scores of those teams you are looking out for. Here’s a look at some of the teams who fortunes directly affect the future of the Thunder’s playoff hopes and beyond.
The Predators
Phoenix Suns
Current Record – 38-34
Position in the Conference/Position in relation to the Thunder – 9th in the conference, 3 games behind OKC
Remaining Schedule – vs. Portland, vs. OKC, @Portland, @Golden State, vs. Utah, @Atlanta, @Dallas, @New Orleans, @San Antonio, vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Winning Percentage of Remaining Opponents – .630
After the trade deadline, Phoenix had to adjust after trading two of their top three guards (Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas). While they gained Brandon Knight, the adjustment period did cause the Suns to lose 7 of their first 11 games after the All-Star break. That spurt allowed the Thunder and New Orleans Pelicans to push ahead of the Suns in the battle for the 8th spot. The Sun have probably the toughest remaining schedule of the three teams looking for the 8th spot. Not only is the winning percentage of the teams remaining on their schedule .630, six of those ten games are on the road. The only solace the Suns can take is that some of those teams may be resting players in preparation for the playoffs.
New Orleans Pelicans
Current Record – 37-34
Position in the Conference/Position in relation to the Thunder – 10th in the conference, 3.5 games behind OKC
Remaining Schedule – vs. Sacramento, vs. Minnesota, @Los Angeles Lakers, @Sacramento, @Portland, vs. Golden State, @Memphis, vs. Phoenix, @Houston, @Minnesota, vs. San Antonio
Winning Percentage of Remaining Opponents – .495
While the Pelicans have a much easier upcoming schedule, they are still dealing with injuries to two key players. Point guard Jrue Holiday remains without a timetable and Ryan Anderson is still about a week or so away from returning. The lack of depth in their guard rotation has started to rear its ugly head in the last few close games. Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon have had to log major minutes in the last two months, and seem to be tiring at the end of games. Anthony Davis is doing everything he can to help the Pelicans, but teams are starting to double him in the post. If the Pelicans are going to make any moves, it’ll be in the next four game, as their next four opponents have a winning percentage of .307.
The Prey
San Antonio Spurs
Current Record – 45-26
Position in the Conference/Position in relation to the Thunder – 6th in the conference, 4.5 games ahead of OKC
Remaining Schedule – vs. Dallas, vs. Memphis, @Miami, @Orlando, vs. Denver, vs. Golden State, @OKC, vs. Houston, @Houston, vs. Phoenix, @New Orleans
Winning Percentage of Remaining Opponents – .568
The Thunder had a golden opportunity to make up ground on the Spurs last night, but watched that wilt away before halftime, as they fell behind by as much as 30 points in the 3rd quarter. The Spurs’ remaining schedule is not easy, but, luckily, they play the more difficult opponents at home. In year’s past, the Spurs would usually rest their players during this stretch of the year, but with the Mavs and the Thunder on their tails, the Spurs will likely not be doing that so much this season.
Dallas Mavericks
Current Record – 45-27
Position in the Conference/Position in relation to the Thunder – 7th in the conference, 4 games ahead of OKC
Remaining Schedule – @San Antonio, @Indiana, @OKC, vs. Houston, vs. Golden State, vs. Phoenix, @Denver, @Los Angeles Lakers, @Utah, vs. Portland
Winning Percentage of Remaining Opponents – .538
The Mavs have been prone to inconsistencies of late (6-7 in their last 13 games) and may still be suffering from chemistry issues. Monta Ellis’ effectiveness hasn’t been the same since the Rajon Rondo trade and the Mavericks’ big man depth is questionable. They struggle a bit on the road and have two 3-game road trips coming up. The Thunder have one more game against the Mavericks and it comes at the back end of a tough 3 game road trip. If there is a team that may relinquish their positioning, it may be Dallas.
The Future Commodities Stakeholder
Washington Wizards
Current Record – 40-32
Position in relation to the Thunder – 1 game worse than OKC
Remaining Schedule – vs. Charlotte, vs. Houston, vs. Philadelphia, vs. New York, @Memphis, @Philadelphia, @Brooklyn, vs. Atlanta, @Indiana, @Cleveland
Winning Percentage of Remaining Opponents – .476
While the Wizards’ fortunes hold no bearing for the Thunder’s playoff implications, they do hold significance for the Thunder’s first round draft pick. The Thunder currently have a better record than the Wizards which would give them the 19th pick in the upcoming draft. The trade that garnered Dion Waiters for the Thunder came at a cost of the Thunder’s first round pick. That pick had a restriction of Top 18, meaning that if the pick was in positions 1-18, the Thunder would keep the pick. If the Thunder were to pick in the 19-30 spot, that pick would be conveyed to the Philadelphia 76ers (via Denver from Cleveland). If the Thunder and Wizards finish with the same record, the position of the pick will be decided by a coin flip, with the winner of the flip getting the 18th pick.
The Thunder are firmly in the 8th spot in the West. Their playoff destiny could be decided in the next 6 games. They have a tough 2 game road trip remaining (@Phoenix and @Utah) and then play the Texas triangle and Memphis after that. Come out of that gauntlet with a winning record, and you control your playoff destiny. Finish less then .500 in these next 6 games, and things could get very harry. This is my favorite time of year to not only watch the games involving the Thunder, but also watch the games of the teams that can affect the Thunder’s future. Here’s to the last 3 weeks of the season.
To a point guard, the Western Conference has to feel like a field littered with land mines. At the end of that field, is a championship trophy. But, at every step, you are bound to encounter a detonation. All the land mines come in different sizes with different modes of exploding. And if it wasn’t bad enough, the Dallas Mavericks, who had some of the dullest land mines on the field, went and added another shiny land mine to the field. If this was David Stern’s vision of a handcheck-less NBA, well then, mission accomplished.
This is the first of four meetings between these two teams. The Mavericks won the season series last year 2-1. The first two games weren’t very close, but the third was an overtime game that Dallas eventually won. Because of locale, these games carry a little more meaning than most NBA games around here. It’s almost like the Red River Rivalry of basketball.
The Opponent
The Dallas Mavericks currently have a 21-10 record, good for 5th in the Western Conference. They sport the best scoring offense in the league at 109.4 points per game and the 2nd best offense in terms of offensive rating. Their current starting line-up is considered to be one of the best, if not the best, in the NBA. The defense, though, is in the bottom third of the league in terms of defensive rating and points allowed. They score a lot, but they also allowed a lot. Leading the Dallas attack is the newly acquired Rajon Rondo. After showing that he had recovered sufficiently enough from an ACL tear from two seasons ago and a hand injury at the beginning of this season, the Mavericks made the move to obtain Rondo from the Celtics. In his first 4 games with Dallas, Rondo is averaging 13.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 8.8 assists, and 1.8 steals, whiling helping the Mavericks to a 2-2 record in that span. At the other guard, Monta Ellis’ production has seemed to wane since the arrival of Ronda. Ellis was used to being a high-usage guard that could work with the ball in his hands. Now, he’s truly an off-guard playing off the ball. It’ll be interesting to see how that dynamics works itself out. At the forward spot, Chandler Parsons is giving the Mavericks basically the same thing he gave the Houston Rockets in his first 3 seasons there: good perimeter shooting and the ability to drive when covered closely on the perimeter. At the other forward spot, Dirk Nowitzki is a lot like another ageless power forward, Tim Duncan. You think they are going to eventually slow down, but they continue performing at the same level they have for the past 5 seasons, except more efficiently. In the middle, Tyson Chandler provides shot blocking and a great target for the pick and roll. While the Rondo trade may have strengthened the starting unit, it also weakened the bench. Gone are Brandan Wright, Jameer Nelson, and Jae Crowder. The bench now consists mainly of veterans near the end of their careers: Charlie Villanueva, Devin Harris, and Richard Jefferson.
Probable Starting Line-ups
Dallas Mavericks
PG – Rajon Rondo
SG – Monta Ellis
SF – Chandler Parsons
PF – Dirk Nowitzki
C – Tyson Chandler
Oklahoma City Thunder
PG – Russell Westbrook
SG – Andre Roberson
SF – Perry Jones
PF – Serge Ibaka
C – Steven Adams
3 Keys to the Game
1. Perimeter Defense – The dribble drive ability of Rondo and Ellis will open up opportunities for Chandler off of pick and rolls and for the bevy of shooters on the perimeter. It will be extremely important for Westbrook, Roberson, and Reggie Jackson to stay in front of their man and prevent any penetration.
2. Transition Opportunities – With the long ball comes long rebounds and transition opportunities. Dallas isn’t necessarily a quick team with stellar athletes, so this may be a phase of the game where the Thunder can take advantage.
3. Bench – The Thunder bench has taken a bit of a hit lately due to its inconsistent play. With Dallas’ weakened bench, look for the Thunder reserves to assert themselves early in this game.
