The road to greatness is a usually a series of tests that move you from bad to good and then from good to great. The process usually takes years, unless you skip the development step and get yourself some star players via free agency or trade. The Thunder almost appear to be skipping the good step and moving into greatness. There is, of course, a huge difference between regular season greatness and playoff greatness (ask James Harden, Paul George, Joel Embiid, etc). But OKC appears to be the anomaly because not only has this happened quickly, but it’s also happened with home-grown talent.
January presents another test for the Thunder. Seventeen games in 31 days is a task. The 2-3 day breaks that presented themselves between games in December will yield to 5 back to back in January. Come out of that month with another successful record, and the Thunder could find themselves in very good standing for the rest of the season. Again, small tests that lead to greatness.
This is the 3rd of 4 meetings between these division rivals. The Nuggets beat the Thunder early in the season 128-95. The Thunder came back a couple of weeks ago and beat the Nuggets in Denver 118-117.
Betting Info
Line: DEN -1.5
O/U: 236.5
Injury Report
OKC
Jaylin Williams (hamstring) – Questionable
DEN
Vlatko Cancar (knee) – OUT
Aaron Gordon (face/hand) – OUT
Reggie Jackson (skin lesion) – Probable
Michael Porter Jr (quad) – Questionable
Three Big Things
Battle for 2nd place – This game has epic importance for both the Thunder and the Nuggets. The winner gets sole possession of 2nd place in the West and has a 2-1 lead in the tiebreaker between these two teams.
The Chet/Jokic match-up – Chet Holmgren did a great job of adjusting to how Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets were defending him in their 2nd meeting of the season. Now it’s time to see the adjustment from Jokic and the Nuggets against Chet. The loss of Aaron Gordon could prove to be big in this scenario.
Win one for my sister – My sister did that thing where she visited another city for New Years and that city happens to be hosting the Thunder for a basketball game. So she will be obnoxiously cheering for the road team in this game in person.
Expectations. The curse of becoming good. The “rebuilding team” narrative that plagued OKC for the past three seasons is now being replaced by the complaining culture when a team isn’t winning every game that it plays. “Josh Giddey doesn’t fit with this team.” “Mark Daigneault doesn’t know how to coach in close games.” “Is Lu Dort an anchor on the offense when he isn’t hitting his 3-point shot?” Et cetera. Et cetera.
But this is the natural progression in the NBA. If you are building through the draft, the progression is usually a couple of seasons of bad basketball, which gives you the young players you need to build off of. Then you have a couple of seasons of figuring out how to win consistently in the regular season (This is where we’re currently at). Then you hopefully have a couple of seasons of playoff experience. Then, if you’re lucky, you become a contender. It’s a process. People look at the finished product that is the Denver Nuggets, but forget that Aaron Gordon is in his 10th season, Nikola Jokic is in his 9th, and Jamal Murray is in his 8th. It takes time and it takes patience.
Season Series: This is the first of four meetings between the Lakers and Thunder this season
Betting Info
Line: OKC -5.5
Spread: O/U 233.5
Injury Report
OKC
None
LAL
Rui Hachimura (nose) – OUT
Jaxson Hayes (elbow) – Questionable
Jarred Vanderbilt (heel) – OUT
Gabe Vincent (knee) – OUT
Three Big Things
Protect the paint – The Lakers are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league. They are dead last in 3-point attempts and 3-pointers made and are 28th in 3-point percentage. They get most of their points in the paint (49.4%, which is 2nd in the league). This will be a game where Chet Holmgren’s defense may have a huge impact in how the Thunder do.
SGA – The lights normally shine brightest when the Lakers are playing and that’s when SGA shines. Even when the Thunder were rebuilding, the Thunder (and SGA) would usually have great games against the purple and gold.
LeBron – We rarely get to see LeBron in OKC. Over the past few seasons, he’s either been hurt or he’s been “hurt” when the Lakers make their trip to OKC. I’m glad the Thunder are now relevant enough to the King to grace us his presence in OKC.
The home opener. The Paycom/Chesapeake/Ford Center used to strike fear in the hearts of opponents. Loud City was revered and was a part of the lore of Thunder fandom. But over the past few years, the pandemic did a number on us. Bally Sports did a number on us. And the rebuild did a number on us. Now, when the Paycom is full, it’s usually filled with jerseys of the other team.
It’s understandable. The covid years kept people away from the building. Bally Sports not showing on a lot of cable providers prevented families from developing a bond with this team. And rebuilds naturally keep people away. But last season was a little frustrating for someone who remembers “the good ol’ days”. While the Thunder weren’t necessarily playoff contenders, they were blowing past early season expectations and establishing themselves as one of the teams to watch for the future. The Thunder ranked dead last in attendance last season. But this year is supposed to be different. The Thunder are 2-0 and the expectations are a lot higher than they have been over the past few seasons. The expectations should also be higher for Thunder fans. Sunday afternoon, it’s the Thunder vs. the defending champs in a battle for conference supremacy. Okay, it’s not really that important, but the building should be full. Let’s get this season started off right.
Injury Report
OKC
Jaylin Williams (hamstring)
Kenrich Williams (back)
Denver
Jay Huff (ribs)
Vlatko Cancar (knee)
Three Big Things
Jokic – We’re finally here. When people brought up Chet Holmgren’s kryptonite, names like Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic always came up. How would Chet defend against these behemoths? These freaks of nature? Well, the time is here. Expect the Thunder to double some, but also expect the Thunder to allow Holmgren to figure it out. There may be some ugly moments, but there may also be some moments of enlightenment.
Pace – The Thunder will want to push the pace in this game. They are currently middle of the road in terms of pace, but they’ve played two teams who love to slow things down. Denver is also one of these teams, but the Thunder will try to turn them over or grab and go as quickly as possible.
Let’s get crazy – I could definitely see coach Daigneault trot out some weird line-ups in this game. Maybe an all bomber line-up with SGA. Maybe a crazy wing-defender line-up with Chet in the middle. Maybe they’ll dust Davis Bertans off and use him. Expect insanity.
Oklahoma City General Manager Sam Presti (left) and Vice President of Basketball Operations Will Dawkins (right) meet with the media after the 2022 NBA Draft. (Credit: Alex Roig)
The Oklahoma City Thunder did something in this past draft that they haven’t done since they started this rebuild in 2019. Instead of acquiring more future first round picks, they consolidated a couple of picks from their asset chest in order to move up to take the prospect they wanted. In this case, the prospect was Ousmane Dieng. And the cost was three future first round picks. All three of the picks the Thunder gave up were heavily protected (lottery or more) for the 2023 NBA Draft, and those protections stretched out for the next 2-5 years. In essence, the Thunder traded the three worst first round assets they had for a player they really wanted.
In all, the Thunder have 13 possible first round picks over the next five drafts (2023-2027). Some of those picks will have value as draft picks and some of them will have value as trade bait. But every first round pick the Thunder have will have some sort of valuation, which is big to Thunder GM Sam Presti. When the Thunder traded the 16th pick in the 2021 NBA Draft to the Houston Rockets for two future firsts, many questioned if Presti was getting a little too asset-collection happy. After that draft, Presti was asked about trading what turned out to be Alperen Sengun for two future firsts. “It was just, it was a valuation of the asset and I think over time, we’ll be able to figure out different ways to utilize those. There’s really nothing more to it than that. It was just way above the line for the general value of that pick, and we’re going to probably make that decision most of the time.”
In this article, I wanted to look at the value of the 13 first round picks the Thunder have over the next five drafts. With that said, this is going to be perceived valuation based on the normal cycle teams go through in the NBA. I don’t have a crystal ball and can’t foresee things like injuries and future signings. These valuations are based on the current premise of the teams involved and the general evolution of what happens to teams in these positions. Without further ado, here are the values of the Thunder’s 13 future first round picks from least valuable to most valuable.
No. 13 – OKC’s 2027 first round pick
No. 12 – OKC’s 2026 first round pick
I put these two picks together because I think they hold the least amount of value to teams looking to deal with the Thunder. The Thunder will continue to add young talent to this team over the next few drafts. Also, as OKC gets better, they will likely add valuable veterans to the team via trade or (I can’t believe I’m saying this) free agency. As the collective talent on the team goes up, so will the wins. And as the wins increase, the draft position will also weaken. The Thunder will likely start to be good in 2024. But they will likely start to be great around 2026 or 2027. Hence, their draft picks will not be of much value to other teams.
No. 11 – Houston’s 2026 first round pick (Top-4 protected in ’26. Converts into a ’26 2nd rounder if it isn’t conveyed)
While Golden State, Boston, Milwaukee, and Los Angeles battle for league supremacy, OKC, Houston, Detroit, and Orlando are currently battling for draft position. Houston and OKC started their rebuilds around the same time. As Houston also continues to stack talent via the draft, their trajectory is likely to be very similar to OKC’s. For that reason, their 2026 pick is likely to be later in the first round than early in the first round.
No. 10 – Los Angeles Clippers’ 2024 first round pick (Unprotected)
If you think it’s crazy that an unprotected pick is only No. 10 on this list, I don’t blame you. Hell, I initially had this as the least valuable pick in the Thunder’s asset chest. But the pick being unprotected kind of forced me to move it down a couple spots. The reason I hesitate on giving this pick too much value is because the Clippers (sans injuries) are likely to be awesome over the next season or two. Like, “best record in the NBA” awesome. Like, “pick in the late 20’s or worse” awesome. Even with Kawhi Leonard out for the season and Paul George out for most of the season, the Clippers still found themselves in the midst of the play-in tournament. With those two back in tow and a point guard tandem of Reggie Jackson and Paul Wall, the Clippers could be real good when this pick is ready to convey.
No. 9 – Miami’s 2025 first round pick (Lottery protected for ’25. If not conveyed in ’25, it will be unprotected for ’26)
I really debated on where to put this pick due to the unprotected nature of it in it’s 2nd year. But Miami has three things going for it: two of their stars are young (Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro), they are a well run organization from top to bottom, and Miami is a prime free agent destination. Based on those three things, I don’t think the Heat will bottom out any time soon.
No. 8 – Philadelphia’s 2025 first round pick (Top-6 protected in ’25. Top-4 protected in ’26 & ’27. If not conveyed by ’27, it converts into a ’27 second rounder)
No. 7 – Utah’s 2024 first round pick (Top-10 protected in ’24 & ’25. Top-8 protected in ’26. If it doesn’t convey by ’26, OKC will receive $890K in cash)
I put these two picks together because these two teams a very close to being in turmoil over the next couple of seasons. For as great as Joel Embiid has been in his career, he’s never made it to a conference finals. Add to the mix, James Harden, who isn’t really known as a bastion of team chemistry, and the Sixers are a disappointing season or two away from being in complete flux. In addition, Embiid’s possible shelf life as a large human being who has had foot issues in the past could rear it’s ugly head in the near future.
The Utah Jazz seem to be the basketball version of the guy who peaked in high school. When the Jazz made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs in Donovan Mitchell’s rookie season, everyone thought that was just the beginning. Fast forward four seasons later and the Jazz still haven’t made it out of the 2nd round of the playoffs, their salary sheet is bloated, and their starting center shut down the world for two years (and now resides in Minnesota). Quin Snyder stepped down this offseason and Mitchell said aloud that he doesn’t know where he goes from here. The hope for Thunder fans is that the Jazz go the Portland route and try to use the picks they obtained in the Gobert deal to build around Mitchell for the next couple of seasons.
No. 6 – OKC’s 2025 first round pick
As mentioned in the explanation for OKC’s 2026 and 2027 picks, the Thunder could be well into their upward trajectory in 2025. They are likely to not be as good in 2025 as they are in ’26 and ’27, but they will likely be “playoff” good. This will be Josh Giddey and Tre Mann’s fourth season and Chet Holgrem, Jalen Williams, and Dieng’s third season. If the jump in their games were to happen, it would likely coincide with the 2024-25 season. But why would this pick be so valuable? The Thunder have the option to swap their pick with either the Clippers (unprotected) or the Rockets (Top-10 protected). If the Clippers hit an injury bug or if the Rockets aren’t progressing in their rebuild as quickly as the Thunder, the Thunder could end up with a better pick than their record suggests.
No. 5 – Denver’s 2027 first round pick (Top-5 protected for ’27 – ’29. Converts to a ’29 2nd rounder if it hasn’t conveyed by then)
Great teams usually have a shelf life of 3-5 years. Denver will be heading into Year 3 of their current situation. Injuries to Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. completely derailed last season, but Nikola Jokic still found ways to dominate on his way to his 2nd consecutive MVP award. But with their financial flexibility capped out and injury concerns for two of their three stars moving forward, this pick may be conveying around the time this team’s shelf life may be coming to end (if not already there by then).
No. 4 – OKC’s 2024 first round pick
No. 3 – Houston’s 2024 first round pick (Top-4 protected. If it isn’t conveyed, the Thunder would get Houston’s 2nd rounder in ’24 & ’25)
I lumped these two picks together because so much of their value is going to depend on what happens in the 2023 NBA Draft. If either of these teams lucks into Victor Wembanyama, their outlook changes immensely.
No. 2 – Los Angeles Clippers’ 2026 first round pick (Unprotected)
There’s a possibility the Clippers could still be good after the ’25-’26 season. But there’s also a high possibility that four more seasons of wear and tear will have had their effect on Leonard and George, along with the Clippers’ bloated cap sheet and lack of assets, to lead them into a slow decline that culminates in a great pick in this draft.
With the All-Star weekend in Los Angeles ending, I think it’s quite apropos to look at the Western Conference standings as we head into the unofficial second half of the season and see a giant traffic jam. Eight teams are within 4.5 games of each other, with the bottom two teams in that mix likely ending up as lottery teams instead of playoff teams.
This has always been the major difference between the Western Conference and Eastern Conference over the past decade. The East is top heavy (usually just one or two teams – many of those teams usually involving some guy named LeBron James), while the West has a lot more depth, team-wise. It hasn’t been rare over the past decade for the eighth seed in the East to be at or below .500, while the West eighth seed has to win at least 45 games to get in. While that disparity seems to be improving, there is still a visible gap between the two conferences. Continue reading →
Radio: WWLS The Sports Animal (98.1 FM, 640 AM, 930 AM (Spanish))
Line: OKC -1.0 | O/U – 217
The Set-Up: I’ve noticed in my adult years that even an hour of change in my routine can mess me up for about a week. It doesn’t matter whether I gain an hour of sleep or lose an hour of sleep, it messes me up all the same. Now imagine if over a seven day period, you change time-zones five times. That’s enough to mess up anyone’s circadian rhythm, especially a routine-based athlete. Continue reading →
Radio: WWLS The Sports Animal (98.1 FM, 640 AM, 930 AM (Spanish))
It’s been kind of a mixed bag when the Big 3 are out there on the court for the Oklahoma City Thunder. In the first three games of the preseason, they have been on the court together for only 20 minutes. They have been joined in large part by Andre Roberson and Steven Adams, but have also seen time with Jerami Grant and Terrance Ferguson. Here are a couple findings via NBAWowy:
In that time frame, they’ve scored 22 points to their opponent’s 17 points.
They were 7/9 from inside the arc, but only 1/5 beyond the arc.
Out of the Big 3, George performed the worst, shooting just 1/4 from the field.
In their time together, Westbrook was the only one of the Big 3 to make an attempt at the rim. George and Anthony took all their shots from the perimeter (16+ feet out) when the Big 3 were together.
Adams and Roberson benefited from the attention being paid to the Big 3, going 3/3 from the field in their attempts.
The Oklahoma City Thunder acquired Randy Foye from the Denver Nuggets on the trade deadline. The Thunder gave up DJ Augustin, Steve Novak, and both of their 2016 2nd round picks (theirs and Charlotte’s, which was acquired in the Jeremy Lamb trade this past offseason). In Foye, the Thunder get a combo guard who is a good (not great) defender and someone who can knock down open shots. This season, Foye is averaging 6 points and 2.1 assists in nearly 20 minutes of action per game. He is shooting only 29.6% from deep, but has shot 37% from that distance over his career. He shoots much better when he is wide open. He rarely got that opportunity in Denver, but will get a lot more looks in Oklahoma City with attention grabbers like Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook on the floor.
The Thunder’s M.O. is usually to have three point guards on the roster. Foye is a good enough ball-handler to be a 3rd string point guard, while also being a good enough shooter to be a spacer off the bench. He will help the bench unit defensively and will add another ball-handler to that line-up. But his biggest value may be as a go-between for Cameron Payne as he gains experience in this, his rookie season. Payne has performed well this season, but when the lights were brightest (the Warriors game) he looked wide-eyed and shaky. Which is exactly what you’d expect from a rookie. The Thunder trust Payne, but if the stage gets too big for him come April, Foye is the perfect back-up plan to bridge the gap between this season and next season.
Many people will pan this trade, but I thought it was a good play by the Thunder. Augustin and Novak were out of the rotation and on expiring deals. Instead of just sitting on that, the Thunder decided to get a player that could possibly have an impact in the near future who was also on an expiring deal. In addition, the move generated a $3.75 million dollar traded player exception (TPE) and opened up a valuable roster spot for the Thunder.
That roster spot could be used on a buyout candidate later in the season. Names that have been thrown out as buy-0ut candidates are Kevin Martin, Joe Johnson, Lance Stephenson, and Andrea Bargnani. Players that won’t necessarily take over a starting spot, but could play a role for a playoff team.
In addition to the roster spot, the move also shaves off over $8 million dollars from the Thunder luxury tax bill. There was never going to be a move that brought the Thunder above the tax line. But any move that could lessen the blow a bit was always welcomed.
In the end, the Thunder felt they were good enough to stand where they currently were. The addition of Foye could prove to be the type of move that helps them against a Golden State in the postseason or it could just be a lateral move where the Thunder traded away two end of the bench players for another end of the bench player. Either way, what the Thunder received outside of Foye (the roster spot, the TPE, the smaller tax bill) could have bigger ramifications for the Thunder moving forward.
The last time the panic alarm was this loud in Thunder Nation was after the 2nd game of the season. The Thunder had just lost 2 close games on the road, and to top it off, they lost their All-Star point guard to a broken hand. The roster was down to 8 healthy players, none of which had ever been tasked with leading a team to battle. The Thunder needed a respite and they needed it fast. Enter the Denver Nuggets. The Thunder got off to a big lead and still had the fortitude to win a close game when Denver got hot in the 4th quarter. From there, the panic dampened as the Thunder started getting some players back from injury and actually won a couple more games. But with the Thunder staring at a 3-9 record, the offense struggling, and their superstar duo probably not coming back for at least another 2 weeks, the panic alarm is once again wailing.
The Opponent
The Nuggets come into the game with a 3-7 record. They won their first game, and then proceeded to lose their next 6, before finally winning the last 2 of 3, including a road victory in Cleveland in their last game. The Nuggets are middle of the pack when it comes to scoring (101.5 ppg), but give up the 4th most points in the league (107.1 ppg). Their rebounding is one of their strengths and it fuels their transition game. Ty Lawson is one of the better pace pushers in the league, using his speed to beat defenders up the court and causing havoc in the paint. On the perimeter, Arron Afflalo and Wilson Chandler have had their troubles being consistent. Up front, the big man rotation of Kenneth Faried, Timofey Mozgov, and JJ Hickson provides plenty of energy in going after rebounds and hustling defensively. The Nuggets are one of the deepest teams in the league, usually going at least 12 deeep into the rotation. The bench players that receive most time are Randy Foye, Danilo Gallinari, JaVale McGee, Alonzo Gee, and Nate Robinson.
Probable Starting Line-Up
Denver Nuggets
PG – Ty Lawson
SG – Arron Afflalo
SF – Wilson Chandler
PF – Kenneth Faried
C – Timofey Mozgov
Oklahoma City Thunder
PG – Reggie Jackson
SG – Jeremy Lamb
SF – Andre Roberson
PF – Serge Ibaka
C – Steven Adams
3 Keys to the Game
1. Consistency – The Thunder have held leads in the last few games they have lost. Sometimes those leads even balloned up into the double digits. But the Thunder have failed to capitalize on those leads due to a stagnant offense. When the Thunder play their best is when they are passing and moving. As soon as the offense becomes iso-oriented, the Thunder struggle due to having their iso MVPs on the bench in street clothes. The Thunder can’t stop playing their current brand of basketball as soon as they see a little light at the end of the tunnel. They aren’t good enough to go off the cuff. They need to stick to their script.
2. Rebounding – I feel like I’ve written this in the last few pre-game reports as a key to the game, but the proof is in the pudding. In their last 3 games (all losses), the Thunder have been outrebounded by an average of 11 rebounds and have allowed the opponent to grab an average of 16 offensive rebounds. While I like the new found perimeter aggressiveness of Nick Collison and Serge Ibaka, I feel like them being so far from the basket takes away from their opportunities to grab offensive rebounds. On the defensive end, Steven Adams needs to play bigger and occupy more space to grab more defensive boards.
3. Reggie Jackson – The offense goes as he does. If he is masterfully setting up his teammates and controlling the flow of the game, the Thunder usually are usually in control and rolling. As soon as he goes off script, the Thunder tend to struggle. I don’t necessarily fault Jackson. This is his first foray as the focal point of the offense, and he is still adjusting to being shadowed by at least one other defender.
Oklahoma City Thunder rookie forward Mitch McGary suffered a broken foot in Wednesday’s preseason game against the Denver Nuggets and is expected to be out 5-7 weeks. First reported by Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman, McGary suffered the injury late in the preseason game and was receiving treatment after the game. McGary finished the game with 14 points and 4 rebounds in an impressive debut.
Thunder rookie forward Mitch McGary will be out 5-7 weeks with a fracture in his left foot. The injury occurred Wednesday at Denver.
The 21st pick out of Michigan has had a history of injuries. After surprising everyone with his performance in the 2nd half of his freshman season in college, McGary took a step back his sophomore year while recovering from back surgery. Since being drafted, though, he has been reportedly healthy and working out in Oklahoma City.
