The top-4 teams in the Western Conference are separated by half a game. HALF A GAME! A rough night at the office and a team could tumble from 1st to 4th pretty quickly. The Thunder have gone from hardly playing any games of consequence over the last three seasons to playing a game of consequence almost nightly. The Thunder and Timberwolves have seemingly been tit for tat for the better part of the new year. The Clippers are the hottest team in the league right now and the Nuggets likely haven’t even started playing their best brand of basketball yet.
With all that said, I’ve been very impressed by Oklahoma City’s poise and maturity throughout the season. The start the season as the “hunters” and still have the same hunger and focus once they became the “hunted”, takes a perspective way beyond the age of most of the players of the roster. Once they win the games, though, you see this team’s age in their post-game interviews. Here’s to continuing to win while young.
This is the third meeting of the season between these two division rivals. The Thunder have won the previous two, 134-120 in December and 134-129 in January. Their fourth and final meeting of the season is on March 20th.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -3.5
O/U: 240.5
Injury Report
OKC
Davis Bertans (knee) – Questionable
Ousmane Dieng (hip) – Questionable
Isaiah Joe (chest) – OUT
Vasilije Micic (ankle) – Questionable
Cason Wallace (shoulder) – Questionable
Lindy Waters III (ankle) – Questionable
Jalen Williams (ankle) – Questionable
Jaylin Williams (Achilles) – Questionable
UTA
Ochai Agbaji (illness) – Questionable
Three Big Things
Trade Deadline Shenanigans – The game before the trade deadline and the game after the trade deadline always have the possibilities of being weird, roster-wise. The Thunder haven’t had an injury report that looked like that all season long. And now, the game before the trade deadline, half the roster is on the injury report. It may mean something. It may mean nothing. But it’s always shenanigans.
Turn them over – The Utah Jazz are the most turnover-prone team in the league. They don’t have any real “floor-general” type players. All their point guards are undersized combo guards that aren’t great at playmaking. This plays immensely into what the Thunder do best defensively and what they like to do offensively (transition).
Rebounding – Conversely, where the Jazz are great, the Thunder struggle. If the Thunder can’t turn the Jazz over and this turns into a half-court affair, the Thunder will need all-hands on deck in the rebounding department. Between Walker Kessler, John Collins, and Lauri Markkanen, the Jazz boast three guys that average 7.4 rebounds or more per game. The Thunder have only one in Chet Holmgren (7.5 rebounds per game).
All I could think about yesterday as the clock was counting down on the Thunder’s loss to the Pistons was the scene in Avengers: Infinitiy War where Thanos is speaking to Red Skull on how to obtain the Soul Stone and Red Skull responds with “A soul for a Soul”. I rewind back to Saturday night, as I was cheering the San Antonio Spurs on for beating the Thunder’s current rivals, the Minnesota Timberwolves. At the time, I remember thinking, “Yes! We’re now officially a half game up on Minnesota and we play Detroit tomorrow.”
The assumption was that OKC would take care of business against the Pistons and put themselves a full game up on Minnesota in the standings heading into their Monday night tussle. Damn you, trap game. The Thunder were caught looking ahead and played one of their worst games of the season. The 16-point defeat was the Thunder’s worse since they lost to Denver by 33 in the third game of the season. The mentality of going from the hunter to the hunted is something that is new to this young Thunder squad. When you are on top, you get everyone’s best shot.
This is the final meeting of the season between these two teams. The Thunder lead the season series 2-1.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -2.5
O/U: 224.5
Injury Report
OKC
Tre Mann (personal) – Day to Day
MIN
Jaylen Clark (Achilles) – OUT
Mike Conley (hamstring) – Questionable
Three Big Things
Turn Them Over – Minnesota isn’t very adept at protecting the ball. They turn the ball over at the third worst clip in the league, averaging 15.2 turnovers per game. Conversely, the Thunder do a great job at protecting the ball (4th best) and score the most points in the league off of turnovers (20 per game). If the Thunder win this battle, they likely win the game.
Pace – The Thunder love to run the pace up a bit against Minnesota, in order to prevent them from getting into their defense. If you allow Rudy Gobert to set-up in the paint, it makes it that much more difficult for the likes of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams to play their brand of basketball. The Thunder are 6th in the league at Fastbreak Points, while the Timberwolves are 4th best at defending against Fastbreak Points. If the Thunder can up the pressure because of their pace, it plays more into their brand of basketball.
Lots at stake – Win today, and you win the season series against the Timberwolves outright. Meaning that if a tie occurs at the end of the season, the Thunder would finish ahead of Minnesota because of their head to head matchups. In addition, the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers don’t appear to be slowing down. Keeping pace with them will help the Thunder keep them at bay.
The number one seed in the Western Conference is within the Thunder grasp. A win tonight, and the Thunder tie the Timberwolves for first in the West, while also owning the tie-breaker against Minnesota. Hot on the Thunder’s tail, though, is the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers. This just shows you the competitiveness of the West. In the Eastern Conference, the first and sixth seeds are separated by 9.5 games. In the West, the first and sixth seeds are separated by only 5 games. If you have a bad week in the West, leap-frogging will occur.
This has made the Thunder’s rise even more impressive. Young teams tend to ride the highs and focus too much on the lows. But the Thunder seem to be the most even-keeled young team in recent memory. The ability to not only keep climbing, but also keep the teams behind them at bay has been very surprising. How this bides for them for the rest of the season remains to be seen. But early returns have been extremely positive.
This is the third of four meetings this season between these two teams. The Thunder have been dominant in their first two meetings, beating the Trailblazers by 43 and 62 points, respectively.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -13.5
O/U: 233.5
Injury Report
OKC
None
POR
Moses Brown (shoulder) – OUT
Shaedon Sharpe (lower abdominal strain/thigh) – OUT
Robert Williams III (knee) – OUT
Three Big Things
Number 1 Seed in Sight – A win tonight accomplishes several things for the Thunder. If the Thunder get the W, then they would be tied with the Minnesota Timberwolves for first in the West. They would be the number one seed because they own the tie-breaker against Minnesota by virtue of their win on Saturday. But a win tonight also gives the team one more division victory, which could pay dividends for future tie-breakers. The top three teams in the West are all from the Northwest division. It also allows them to stay ahead of the fast-charging Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers.
Trap-Game Possibilities – When you beat a team by a combined 105 points in your two meetings against them, it would almost be human nature to look past them. Despite their putrid record, the Blazers have won two of their last three games. Even though the Thunder have shown a propensity to not fail in trap-game situations, the possibility is always there.
Second-Chance Points – The Trailblazers aren’t good at a lot of things. But one thing that they are good at is offensive rebounding and 2nd-chance points. These are all things that keep bad, young teams in games. Eliminate these things and you eliminate one of their main sources of offense.
I need a show of hands of everyone who had “Mark Daigneault coaching in the All-Star Game” on their 2023-24 Thunder bingo card. Nobody? Nobody. But here we are, 36 games into the season, sitting a half-game back of the top spot in the West. In order for Daigneault to coach in the All-Star game, the Thunder would need to be first in the West two weeks prior to the All-Star game, which is on February 18th. The Thunder play 14 games in that time frame, with two of those games being against the West-leading Minnesota Timberwolves and one of those games being against the no.3 team in the West, the Denver Nuggets. Denver coach Mike Malone is disqualified from coaching in this year’s All-Star game due to having coached in the game last season. So if for some reason, Denver ends up 1st in the West and OKC 2nd, Daigneault would still end up as the All-Star game coach. The ball in the Thunder’s court.
This is the 2nd meeting of the year between these two Northwest division rivals. The Thunder won big in their last meeting, winning 134-91 in Portland. They play two more times after today (Jan. 23rd and Mar. 6th).
Betting Info
Line: OKC -12.5
O/U: 235.5
Injury Report
OKC
Davis Bertans (illness) – Day to Day
Olivier Sarr (illness) – Day to Day
POR
DeAndre Ayton (knee) – Doubtful
Robert Williams III (knee) – OUT
Moses Brown (shoulder) – OUT
Jabari Walker (knee) – Questionable
Three Big Things
Dominate the Paint – The Trailblazers are one of the worst teams in defending the paint (currently ranked 28th in the league). The Thunder are one of the best at scoring in the paint (currently ranked at 5th in the league). On the other end of the floor, the Thunder are the 2nd best team at defending the paint, while the Trailblazers are the 2nd worst team at scoring in the paint. When you add to that the fact that all three centers for the Trailblazers are likely out, this becomes a much easier game for the likes of Chet Holmgren and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Turn Them Over – The Trailblazers are the 28th ranked team in terms of protecting the rock. The Thunder rank first in the league in scoring points off turnovers and blocks and 5th in steals. This totally plays into the Thunder’s hands.
Fight for First – If the Thunder win tonight, they’ll be tied with the Timberwolves for the best record in the West. Unfortunately, they’ll still be listed at no. 2 by virtue of a tiebreaker. The head to head match-up between the two teams is tied at one apiece, but the Wolves currently have a better division record than the Thunder. Damn you, tiebreakers!
The road to greatness is a usually a series of tests that move you from bad to good and then from good to great. The process usually takes years, unless you skip the development step and get yourself some star players via free agency or trade. The Thunder almost appear to be skipping the good step and moving into greatness. There is, of course, a huge difference between regular season greatness and playoff greatness (ask James Harden, Paul George, Joel Embiid, etc). But OKC appears to be the anomaly because not only has this happened quickly, but it’s also happened with home-grown talent.
January presents another test for the Thunder. Seventeen games in 31 days is a task. The 2-3 day breaks that presented themselves between games in December will yield to 5 back to back in January. Come out of that month with another successful record, and the Thunder could find themselves in very good standing for the rest of the season. Again, small tests that lead to greatness.
This is the 3rd of 4 meetings between these division rivals. The Nuggets beat the Thunder early in the season 128-95. The Thunder came back a couple of weeks ago and beat the Nuggets in Denver 118-117.
Betting Info
Line: DEN -1.5
O/U: 236.5
Injury Report
OKC
Jaylin Williams (hamstring) – Questionable
DEN
Vlatko Cancar (knee) – OUT
Aaron Gordon (face/hand) – OUT
Reggie Jackson (skin lesion) – Probable
Michael Porter Jr (quad) – Questionable
Three Big Things
Battle for 2nd place – This game has epic importance for both the Thunder and the Nuggets. The winner gets sole possession of 2nd place in the West and has a 2-1 lead in the tiebreaker between these two teams.
The Chet/Jokic match-up – Chet Holmgren did a great job of adjusting to how Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets were defending him in their 2nd meeting of the season. Now it’s time to see the adjustment from Jokic and the Nuggets against Chet. The loss of Aaron Gordon could prove to be big in this scenario.
Win one for my sister – My sister did that thing where she visited another city for New Years and that city happens to be hosting the Thunder for a basketball game. So she will be obnoxiously cheering for the road team in this game in person.
Expectations. The curse of becoming good. The “rebuilding team” narrative that plagued OKC for the past three seasons is now being replaced by the complaining culture when a team isn’t winning every game that it plays. “Josh Giddey doesn’t fit with this team.” “Mark Daigneault doesn’t know how to coach in close games.” “Is Lu Dort an anchor on the offense when he isn’t hitting his 3-point shot?” Et cetera. Et cetera.
But this is the natural progression in the NBA. If you are building through the draft, the progression is usually a couple of seasons of bad basketball, which gives you the young players you need to build off of. Then you have a couple of seasons of figuring out how to win consistently in the regular season (This is where we’re currently at). Then you hopefully have a couple of seasons of playoff experience. Then, if you’re lucky, you become a contender. It’s a process. People look at the finished product that is the Denver Nuggets, but forget that Aaron Gordon is in his 10th season, Nikola Jokic is in his 9th, and Jamal Murray is in his 8th. It takes time and it takes patience.
Season Series: This is the first of four meetings between the Lakers and Thunder this season
Betting Info
Line: OKC -5.5
Spread: O/U 233.5
Injury Report
OKC
None
LAL
Rui Hachimura (nose) – OUT
Jaxson Hayes (elbow) – Questionable
Jarred Vanderbilt (heel) – OUT
Gabe Vincent (knee) – OUT
Three Big Things
Protect the paint – The Lakers are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league. They are dead last in 3-point attempts and 3-pointers made and are 28th in 3-point percentage. They get most of their points in the paint (49.4%, which is 2nd in the league). This will be a game where Chet Holmgren’s defense may have a huge impact in how the Thunder do.
SGA – The lights normally shine brightest when the Lakers are playing and that’s when SGA shines. Even when the Thunder were rebuilding, the Thunder (and SGA) would usually have great games against the purple and gold.
LeBron – We rarely get to see LeBron in OKC. Over the past few seasons, he’s either been hurt or he’s been “hurt” when the Lakers make their trip to OKC. I’m glad the Thunder are now relevant enough to the King to grace us his presence in OKC.
The home opener. The Paycom/Chesapeake/Ford Center used to strike fear in the hearts of opponents. Loud City was revered and was a part of the lore of Thunder fandom. But over the past few years, the pandemic did a number on us. Bally Sports did a number on us. And the rebuild did a number on us. Now, when the Paycom is full, it’s usually filled with jerseys of the other team.
It’s understandable. The covid years kept people away from the building. Bally Sports not showing on a lot of cable providers prevented families from developing a bond with this team. And rebuilds naturally keep people away. But last season was a little frustrating for someone who remembers “the good ol’ days”. While the Thunder weren’t necessarily playoff contenders, they were blowing past early season expectations and establishing themselves as one of the teams to watch for the future. The Thunder ranked dead last in attendance last season. But this year is supposed to be different. The Thunder are 2-0 and the expectations are a lot higher than they have been over the past few seasons. The expectations should also be higher for Thunder fans. Sunday afternoon, it’s the Thunder vs. the defending champs in a battle for conference supremacy. Okay, it’s not really that important, but the building should be full. Let’s get this season started off right.
Injury Report
OKC
Jaylin Williams (hamstring)
Kenrich Williams (back)
Denver
Jay Huff (ribs)
Vlatko Cancar (knee)
Three Big Things
Jokic – We’re finally here. When people brought up Chet Holmgren’s kryptonite, names like Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic always came up. How would Chet defend against these behemoths? These freaks of nature? Well, the time is here. Expect the Thunder to double some, but also expect the Thunder to allow Holmgren to figure it out. There may be some ugly moments, but there may also be some moments of enlightenment.
Pace – The Thunder will want to push the pace in this game. They are currently middle of the road in terms of pace, but they’ve played two teams who love to slow things down. Denver is also one of these teams, but the Thunder will try to turn them over or grab and go as quickly as possible.
Let’s get crazy – I could definitely see coach Daigneault trot out some weird line-ups in this game. Maybe an all bomber line-up with SGA. Maybe a crazy wing-defender line-up with Chet in the middle. Maybe they’ll dust Davis Bertans off and use him. Expect insanity.
Oklahoma City General Manager Sam Presti (left) and Vice President of Basketball Operations Will Dawkins (right) meet with the media after the 2022 NBA Draft. (Credit: Alex Roig)
The Oklahoma City Thunder did something in this past draft that they haven’t done since they started this rebuild in 2019. Instead of acquiring more future first round picks, they consolidated a couple of picks from their asset chest in order to move up to take the prospect they wanted. In this case, the prospect was Ousmane Dieng. And the cost was three future first round picks. All three of the picks the Thunder gave up were heavily protected (lottery or more) for the 2023 NBA Draft, and those protections stretched out for the next 2-5 years. In essence, the Thunder traded the three worst first round assets they had for a player they really wanted.
In all, the Thunder have 13 possible first round picks over the next five drafts (2023-2027). Some of those picks will have value as draft picks and some of them will have value as trade bait. But every first round pick the Thunder have will have some sort of valuation, which is big to Thunder GM Sam Presti. When the Thunder traded the 16th pick in the 2021 NBA Draft to the Houston Rockets for two future firsts, many questioned if Presti was getting a little too asset-collection happy. After that draft, Presti was asked about trading what turned out to be Alperen Sengun for two future firsts. “It was just, it was a valuation of the asset and I think over time, we’ll be able to figure out different ways to utilize those. There’s really nothing more to it than that. It was just way above the line for the general value of that pick, and we’re going to probably make that decision most of the time.”
In this article, I wanted to look at the value of the 13 first round picks the Thunder have over the next five drafts. With that said, this is going to be perceived valuation based on the normal cycle teams go through in the NBA. I don’t have a crystal ball and can’t foresee things like injuries and future signings. These valuations are based on the current premise of the teams involved and the general evolution of what happens to teams in these positions. Without further ado, here are the values of the Thunder’s 13 future first round picks from least valuable to most valuable.
No. 13 – OKC’s 2027 first round pick
No. 12 – OKC’s 2026 first round pick
I put these two picks together because I think they hold the least amount of value to teams looking to deal with the Thunder. The Thunder will continue to add young talent to this team over the next few drafts. Also, as OKC gets better, they will likely add valuable veterans to the team via trade or (I can’t believe I’m saying this) free agency. As the collective talent on the team goes up, so will the wins. And as the wins increase, the draft position will also weaken. The Thunder will likely start to be good in 2024. But they will likely start to be great around 2026 or 2027. Hence, their draft picks will not be of much value to other teams.
No. 11 – Houston’s 2026 first round pick (Top-4 protected in ’26. Converts into a ’26 2nd rounder if it isn’t conveyed)
While Golden State, Boston, Milwaukee, and Los Angeles battle for league supremacy, OKC, Houston, Detroit, and Orlando are currently battling for draft position. Houston and OKC started their rebuilds around the same time. As Houston also continues to stack talent via the draft, their trajectory is likely to be very similar to OKC’s. For that reason, their 2026 pick is likely to be later in the first round than early in the first round.
No. 10 – Los Angeles Clippers’ 2024 first round pick (Unprotected)
If you think it’s crazy that an unprotected pick is only No. 10 on this list, I don’t blame you. Hell, I initially had this as the least valuable pick in the Thunder’s asset chest. But the pick being unprotected kind of forced me to move it down a couple spots. The reason I hesitate on giving this pick too much value is because the Clippers (sans injuries) are likely to be awesome over the next season or two. Like, “best record in the NBA” awesome. Like, “pick in the late 20’s or worse” awesome. Even with Kawhi Leonard out for the season and Paul George out for most of the season, the Clippers still found themselves in the midst of the play-in tournament. With those two back in tow and a point guard tandem of Reggie Jackson and Paul Wall, the Clippers could be real good when this pick is ready to convey.
No. 9 – Miami’s 2025 first round pick (Lottery protected for ’25. If not conveyed in ’25, it will be unprotected for ’26)
I really debated on where to put this pick due to the unprotected nature of it in it’s 2nd year. But Miami has three things going for it: two of their stars are young (Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro), they are a well run organization from top to bottom, and Miami is a prime free agent destination. Based on those three things, I don’t think the Heat will bottom out any time soon.
No. 8 – Philadelphia’s 2025 first round pick (Top-6 protected in ’25. Top-4 protected in ’26 & ’27. If not conveyed by ’27, it converts into a ’27 second rounder)
No. 7 – Utah’s 2024 first round pick (Top-10 protected in ’24 & ’25. Top-8 protected in ’26. If it doesn’t convey by ’26, OKC will receive $890K in cash)
I put these two picks together because these two teams a very close to being in turmoil over the next couple of seasons. For as great as Joel Embiid has been in his career, he’s never made it to a conference finals. Add to the mix, James Harden, who isn’t really known as a bastion of team chemistry, and the Sixers are a disappointing season or two away from being in complete flux. In addition, Embiid’s possible shelf life as a large human being who has had foot issues in the past could rear it’s ugly head in the near future.
The Utah Jazz seem to be the basketball version of the guy who peaked in high school. When the Jazz made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs in Donovan Mitchell’s rookie season, everyone thought that was just the beginning. Fast forward four seasons later and the Jazz still haven’t made it out of the 2nd round of the playoffs, their salary sheet is bloated, and their starting center shut down the world for two years (and now resides in Minnesota). Quin Snyder stepped down this offseason and Mitchell said aloud that he doesn’t know where he goes from here. The hope for Thunder fans is that the Jazz go the Portland route and try to use the picks they obtained in the Gobert deal to build around Mitchell for the next couple of seasons.
No. 6 – OKC’s 2025 first round pick
As mentioned in the explanation for OKC’s 2026 and 2027 picks, the Thunder could be well into their upward trajectory in 2025. They are likely to not be as good in 2025 as they are in ’26 and ’27, but they will likely be “playoff” good. This will be Josh Giddey and Tre Mann’s fourth season and Chet Holgrem, Jalen Williams, and Dieng’s third season. If the jump in their games were to happen, it would likely coincide with the 2024-25 season. But why would this pick be so valuable? The Thunder have the option to swap their pick with either the Clippers (unprotected) or the Rockets (Top-10 protected). If the Clippers hit an injury bug or if the Rockets aren’t progressing in their rebuild as quickly as the Thunder, the Thunder could end up with a better pick than their record suggests.
No. 5 – Denver’s 2027 first round pick (Top-5 protected for ’27 – ’29. Converts to a ’29 2nd rounder if it hasn’t conveyed by then)
Great teams usually have a shelf life of 3-5 years. Denver will be heading into Year 3 of their current situation. Injuries to Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. completely derailed last season, but Nikola Jokic still found ways to dominate on his way to his 2nd consecutive MVP award. But with their financial flexibility capped out and injury concerns for two of their three stars moving forward, this pick may be conveying around the time this team’s shelf life may be coming to end (if not already there by then).
No. 4 – OKC’s 2024 first round pick
No. 3 – Houston’s 2024 first round pick (Top-4 protected. If it isn’t conveyed, the Thunder would get Houston’s 2nd rounder in ’24 & ’25)
I lumped these two picks together because so much of their value is going to depend on what happens in the 2023 NBA Draft. If either of these teams lucks into Victor Wembanyama, their outlook changes immensely.
No. 2 – Los Angeles Clippers’ 2026 first round pick (Unprotected)
There’s a possibility the Clippers could still be good after the ’25-’26 season. But there’s also a high possibility that four more seasons of wear and tear will have had their effect on Leonard and George, along with the Clippers’ bloated cap sheet and lack of assets, to lead them into a slow decline that culminates in a great pick in this draft.
With the All-Star weekend in Los Angeles ending, I think it’s quite apropos to look at the Western Conference standings as we head into the unofficial second half of the season and see a giant traffic jam. Eight teams are within 4.5 games of each other, with the bottom two teams in that mix likely ending up as lottery teams instead of playoff teams.
This has always been the major difference between the Western Conference and Eastern Conference over the past decade. The East is top heavy (usually just one or two teams – many of those teams usually involving some guy named LeBron James), while the West has a lot more depth, team-wise. It hasn’t been rare over the past decade for the eighth seed in the East to be at or below .500, while the West eighth seed has to win at least 45 games to get in. While that disparity seems to be improving, there is still a visible gap between the two conferences. Continue reading →
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Line: OKC -1.0 | O/U – 217
The Set-Up: I’ve noticed in my adult years that even an hour of change in my routine can mess me up for about a week. It doesn’t matter whether I gain an hour of sleep or lose an hour of sleep, it messes me up all the same. Now imagine if over a seven day period, you change time-zones five times. That’s enough to mess up anyone’s circadian rhythm, especially a routine-based athlete. Continue reading →
