Sometimes, a tough, hard-fought victory is exactly what the doctor ordered. Last night’s win over the New Orleans Pelicans is exactly the kind of gritty, grind-it-out game that the Thunder needed to win to feel good about themselves. Even though they have gone 8-2 over their last 10, the losses have felt almost disastrous and the wins have felt “meh”. It was good knowing that the Thunder didn’t have to play their best in order to win in a playoff environment.
This is the fourth and final meeting this season between these two teams. The Rockets won the first meeting early in December, 110-101. The Thunder returned the favor on back to back nights in late February, winning 123-110 and 112-95, respectively.
Magic Numbers
To lock up the 10th seed (play-in guaranteed) – 0 (Locked In)
To lock up the 6th seed (playoffs guaranteed) – 3
To lock up the 4th seed (homecourt advantage in the first round guaranteed) – 6
Betting Info
Line: OKC -6.5
O/U: 231.5
Injury Report
OKC
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (quad) – Day to Day
HOU
Steven Adams (knee) – OUT
Tari Eason (lower leg) – OUT
Alperen Sengun (ankle) – OUT
Cam Whitmore (knee) – OUT
Three Big Things
Transition Offense vs. Transition Defense – The Thunder love to get out on the break and run. They are first in the league in points off turnovers and 7th in fast break points. The young legs on the team love to get up and down the floor. However, Houston is probably the best transition defense in the league. The Rockets allow the third fewest points off turnovers and are first in defending fast break points.
Hot Team Extinguishers – The Thunder always seem to get teams when they are playing their best. In December, they faced a Clippers team that had found it’s groove after the James Harden trade and came into OKC on a 9-game winning streak. The result: a 134-115 OKC victory. There was a run of 13 games for Denver in December, where they went 11-2, with the two losses coming at the hands of the Thunder. In January, the Boston Celtics came into OKC having won 11 of their last 12 games. The result: a 127-123 OKC victory. Tonight, the Rockets come into OKC on a 9-game winning streak. Here’s hoping the Thunder aren’t too beat up or tired from last night’s tough game.
Ewing Theory – Since Alperen Sengun went down 7 games ago, certain players on the Rockets have stepped up in big ways. In that same span, Jalen Green and Jock Landale have net ratings of 24.2 and 24.5, respectively. Green, especially, has seen a huge leap in production as the former No. 2 pick looks like he’s starting to live up to his lofty billing. In the last 10 games, Green is averaging 27.6 points on 50/43/78 shooting splits. His true shooting is in the mid 60’s and his usage is up to 30 during that time. Londale has allowed Houston to play a more modern style due to his ability to step out and hit 3’s. In his last 10 games, Landale is shooting 55.6% from deep.
I’ve never solved the puzzle that is the Rubik Cube. I try and then eventually just give up. And I’ve never really done a deep dive into how to solve it either. But to some people, the Rubik Cube became an obsession. They researched it, spoke to people who had solved it before, and kept trying. Eventually, they figured the trick to the Cube and solved it. Now, you have people that can solve a Rubik Cube in less than a minute.
This season has been a lot like the solving of the Rubik Cube for the Thunder. Some teams flummoxed OKC early on, but through research (game film) and speaking with experts (Coach Daigneault), the Thunder have begun to figure teams out. Denver completely demolished the Thunder early in the season. Then the Thunder won the next three. Sacramento has given OKC issues for the past few seasons. The Thunder now seem to have figured that puzzle out. Houston plays like world-beaters every time their opponent has OKC written on their jersey. The Thunder turned a 16-point deficit into a 13-point victory on Sunday. Here’s hoping the puzzle of bad starts against Houston gets solved tonight.
This is the third of four meetings this season between these two teams. Houston dominated OKC in their first meeting in Houston, winning 110-101 (it wasn’t that close). OKC returned the favor on Sunday, winning 123-110. Their final meeting of the season will be on March 27th.
Magic Numbers
To lock up the 10th seed (play-in guaranteed) – 16
To lock up the 6th seed (playoffs guaranteed) – 19
Betting Info
Line: OKC -9.5
O/U: 235.5
Injury Report
OKC
None
HOU
Steven Adams (knee) – OUT
Tari Eason (lower leg) – OUT
Three Big Things
The Josh Giddey conundrum – The Houston Rockets were the first team this season to really lean on the “put the center on Giddey and let them roam” defense that OKC has been seeing over the past two months. In Sunday’s game, the Thunder involved Giddey in a lot more action around the floor (pick and rolls, off-ball action, etc) to cause the defense to react to the movement. The beautiful thing about a home and home is that it almost has the feel of a playoff series where adjustments are made from game to game. It will be interesting to see how Houston adjusts to OKC putting Giddey in motion on the offensive end.
Attack the paint – Houston has prioritized in long-winged perimeter defenders such as Tari Eason, Dillon Brooks, Jabari Smith Jr, and Amen Thompson. Where they lack is on the interior. While it may be a chore in getting into the paint, once they arrive, there isn’t much stopping from getting to the rim. For as good as Alperen Sengun has been on the offensive end, the defensive struggles are starting to become more and more apparent with every passing day.
Gordon Hayward – While it has looked a little clunky, I think the Hayward trade will turn out to be very successful for the Thunder. He has yet to take a three in the three games he has played with OKC. That means one of two things for me: either Hayward is still figuring out where on the floor to be in order to compliment OKC’s big 3 or defenders are staying closer to Hayward than they would someone like, oh, I don’t know, Josh Giddey, and giving the big 3 more space to operate. I’m calling my shot: Hayward hits two 3-pointers tonight.
It was 2020, and the Oklahoma City Thunder were playing the Houston Rockets in the bubble. The happiest place on Earth was suddenly a lot happier in a very sad time, because it meant the return of NBA basketball back into our lives.
It was a bittersweet series for Thunder fans going into it. We were facing our beloved “king of the prairie”, the Brodie, Russell Westbrook in the playoffs for the first time since he was traded. The Thunder were run off the floor in the first two games of the series. But, in spite of the rough start they had, they were able to fight back and make the series 3-3 to force a game 7.
The Thunder, unfortunately, fell short in a WILD game 7. Crazy things happened throughout the game. Lu Dort, a then 29% 3 pointer shooter, knocked down 6/12 3’s. James Harden, former Thunder legend and known lazy defender, decided to play defense very late in the game to block the aforementioned Dort’s go ahead 3 point attempt. And Chris Paul, the player acquired in the Russ trade, missed a crucial and absolute bunny of a shot to put the Thunder up 1 with under 45 seconds remaining.
As he missed the shot; we knew, and he knew, that was likely the game.
“I had a floater right there in the middle of the lane that would have put us up 1.” Chris Paul lamented postgame. “I said (to the team) ‘Just keep it close, and we’ll finish it.‘ That’s on me.”
Chris Paul was something else that season, man. Went from a guy that many thought was washed and silenced every doubter. Took a team with a .2% (still insane) chance at the postseason and carried them to a 5 seed. Was 5th in MVP voting and led the NBA in points in the clutch.
Just the game prior, he hit two huge 3’s late to put the Thunder in position to win game 6.
The issue was, as he alluded to after Game 7, that it was “on me.” And it was. It was ALL on him. Whether it was scoring, creating, or distributing in the clutch, the Thunder relied solely on the play of Chris Paul.
And when it mattered most, he couldn’t deliver.
This isn’t an indictment on CP3. As I mentioned, he was AWESOME on and off the court in 2020. But it makes you think, what it would have looked like if he had someone he could also rely on in those moments. Someone, possibly, on both sides of the court. What might that have looked like?
Well, it might just look like the #1 team in the Western Conference, currently.
Today, we see a Thunder team with a similar dominance late in the game. In the clutch this season, this team boasts the highest field goal percentage (53.7%), the highest offensive rating (129.6), and the 2nd highest net rating (23.4).
And unlike that team in 2020 that lived and died off the performance of Chris Paul, it’s 3 different guys, affecting the game in a variety of ways.
(All the upcoming stats are for players who have taken at least 10 shots in the clutch)
((Shoutout Aaron Wiggins though, who is the first name that comes up if you search FG% with no filter))
First, you have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The head of the snake on offense, a perennial MVP candidate, one of the most unguardable players in the entire league, widely regarded as one of the clutchest shot makers in the world. He is currently 10th in clutch points (70), and field goal percentage (61%), which is phenomenal in and of itself.
However, much like most of the discourse around Shai this year, the offense doesn’t tell you the whole story. Shai is also tied for 2nd in the league in steals made in the clutch (5). He clearly made his defense a point of emphasis over the offseason, currently leading the league in steals by a wide margin. And that clearly reflects in late game situations as well!
Then you have Chet Holmgren. A rookie who has defied every expectation, has provided an unprecedented impact to a team that was in the play-in game just last year, is the lead for Rookie of the year, a borderline All-Star, and is already one of the best rim protectors in the game. He, to a lesser but still impressive degree, is 29th in clutch FG% (53.6%) which is still great for a 3rd option on offense, and he’s already had a couple clutch moments on offense this year.
But much like Shai, it’s the defense where his impact is mostly felt. Chet is currently 4th in blocks per game (2.6) and 3rd in total blocks (111), and that has trickled into the clutch as well. Chet currently leads the league in clutch time blocks with 9 (!!) , that’s a full 2 blocks more than the 2nd highest, which, interestingly enough, is his rookie nemesis Victor Wembanyama who has 7. Late in the game, teams look for the best shots they can get, and there is no better look than at the rim… unless Chet is there and then you should probably look elsewhere.
Finally, you have arguably the most impressive stat in this article. Jalen Williams, known as JDub, Dub, or around the holidays he is affectionately referred to as Santa (real ones know what’s up). Dub is in his sophomore season, but he has been playing like a seasoned vet as of late.
In the game against the Magic on January 13th, he scored a quick flurry of points at the beginning of the 4th quarter and started tapping his wrist declaring that it’s “Dub time”! That’s the time when Shai is off the court to start the 4th quarter (and to a lesser extent the 2nd quarter). For about 6 to 7 minutes, it’s alllllllll Jalen Williams. Buckets, creation, defense, what have you; this is his time to cook, this is truly Dub time. It’s helped us cut into leads, hold leads, and extend leads. Dub time.
But what he does at the end of the 4th, is even more eye popping.
As of this writing, Jalen Williams leads the league in clutch FG% with 72.7% on 22 shots. Just last night against the Blazers, he had 3/4 shots go down (all in about the exact same spot), including what ended up being the game winner, in almost the exact same spot Shai called game against the Blazers the year prior.
What’s important about these shots? The Thunder used Shai as a screener for Dub, and then had him flare to the top of the three point line as a decoy, leaving Dub 1 on 1 against the diminutive Anfernee Simons.
Chet also had 3 of his 6 blocks in the 4th quarter. And despite Dub hitting the shot, it was Shai who stole the inbound alley-oop attempt as the clock expired to finally ice the game.
In its early conception, the Thunder relied on Kevin Durant. In 2016-17, the Thunder relied on Russell Westbrook. In 2020, the Thunder relied on Chris Paul. And in the years prior to this one, the Thunder relied solely on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
For the first time in forever, it’s not a one man band in OKC. It’s not Shai against the world. The Thunder have carefully hand picked, home grown, and developed three players at different positions, who have a killer mentality, buy in on both sides of the ball, are unselfish, and aren’t afraid of the moment.
The Thunder are no longer a one man show in the clutch. They are a tag team.
And no matter what area of the game they are effecting, no matter which one of them are tagged in, they’re coming for the belt.
On Tuesday, the city of Oklahoma City voted on whether to continue a one cent sales tax to pay for a new arena to essentially keep the Thunder in the Great Plains state for the foreseeable future (25+ years). The result: A 71-29 landslide victory for those in favor of the city paying for a new arena. The noise about whether the city would be able to keep the team has now been deemed null and void. OKC did what Seattle couldn’t do: which is keep their team via arena vote.
With that out of the way, it is now time to fully focus on this team. The vote nullified an air of uncertainty that had been around since OKC Mayor David Holt first suggested this situation would be decided by a vote. A surprising start has fueled the idea that this team could possibly do things come playoff time. With the worry of the unknown out of the way, could this pave the way for the team to start using their sizeable asset chest to bring in star talent/veteran role players? I would say “hold off on that thought”. The organization seems content on seeing how this current squad plays out. They have the makings of having three bonafide stars and could see a Durant/Westbrook/Harden-type situation happening a lot sooner than later. Only time will tell. But the good thing is that we have plenty of time now.
This is the second of four meetings between the Thunder and Kings. Sacramento won the first meeting 105-98.
Betting Info
Line: SAC -1.5
O/U: 244.5
Injury Report
OKC
None
SAC
Alex Len (ankle) – OUT
Trey Lyles (illness) – Questionable
Three Big Things
Attack the paint – In their last meeting against Sacramento, the Thunder settled way too much for mid-range jumpers. They were outscored in the paint, 46-58, and shot only 42% from the field. The Kings do not have a rim-protector and rank near the bottom of the league in blocks and points in the paint allowed.
Little House of Horrors – It does not matter what the building is called (Arco, Golden 1, etc), the arena in Sacramento always seems to be a little house of horrors for the Thunder. Since the rebuild started in the 2020-21 season, the Thunder are 0-7 in Sacramento. In fact, over that span, that team is 1-10 vs. the Kings. For some reason, this team has the Thunder’s number. Which is a little worrying because I could definitely see the Thunder facing someone like the Kings in the first round of the playoffs this season.
Play your game – The Kings are elite at defensive rebounding and getting back on defense. They lead the league in defensive rebound percentage and are 2nd in opponent fast break points. The team leading the league in allowing the least amount of opponent fast break points: the Houston Rockets. And we saw how well we fared against their defense. The Thunder have got to find a way to enforce their will on the Kings. Whether that’s turning them over to get into transition or running the break off a defensive rebound, the Thunder will have to get on the break to establish their game.
Yesterday, I was busy. So busy, in fact, that I didn’t have time to do my favorite “work, but not work” activity, which is to scroll through my Twitter timeline. When I did finally have some time to myself, I went to my adult pacifier and opened up my Twitter app. And, my word, was it a shit show. Listen, I get it. Sometimes a passionate fanbase can lend itself to hyperbolic statements from time to time. But, in the words of the youths: Bruh…stahp!. It was one bad game. Yes, it was against Houston. The team we’ve formulated this weird Twitter rivalry against ever since the James Harden trade. The team that probably killed the Thunder’s best chance at winning a championship (I’m looking at you, Pat Bev). But it was, honestly, just a weird vibes game. The Thunder had no energy from the start and Houston had a player that went supernova (Aaron Holiday). In an 82-game season, it’s going to happen from time to time.
The picture of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looking disappointed on the bench was turned into a call for the GM’s job, the coach’s job, and the trading of every player not named SGA. Building a contender takes time (years). The Thunder are 2-3 over their last 5 games. They lost to the No. 1 seed in the West by three points, the No. 4 seed in the East by 4, and then to Houston. In the process, they beat the In-Season tournament finalist Lakers by 23 and the Mavs in Dallas by 6. This team is honestly ahead of schedule and progressing just fine. Patience in a virtue, not just in life, but also in fandom. Woo-sah, people.
This is the fourth and final meeting this season between the Thunder and Warriors. The Warriors won the first meeting in Oklahoma City, while the Thunder won that last two in the Bay Area.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -2.5
O/U: 236.5
Injury Report
OKC
None
GSW
Gary Payton II (calf) – OUT
Three Big Things
Rebounding – The ugly rebounding monster is rearing it’s ugly head again. After a couple of weeks of improved rebounding, the Thunder fell off the wagon, losing the rebounding battle 30-53 on Wednesday. Every attempt for OKC to come back in that game was thwarted by a back-breaking offensive rebound by Houston and by Super Saiyan Aaron Holiday. The Warriors are one of the better rebounding teams in the league, so the Thunder will need to be hyper-focused on making sure the rebounding battle isn’t too unbalanced.
Tre Mann – I’d be remiss if I didn’t talk about the minutes Mann gave the Thunder on Wednesday. Thought to be lost to the abyss that is lack of developmental minutes, Mann came in and performed extremely well on both sides of the court. If teams are going to completely slack off of Josh Giddey, this may be the opportunity for the Thunder to try a new look at times in the game with Mann in as the de facto point guard. Orrrrrr, he could go back to the bench and play “victor cigar/blowout loss” minutes. It’ll be interesting to see how Coach Daigneault moves forward in this situation.
Chris Paul – As we head towards an important arena vote on December 12th, I just want to give my flowers to the man who was OKC’s first professional superstar…even as a rookie. Paul’s rookie and sophomore seasons were played in OKC as a member of the OKC/NO Hornets and his passion for the game spilled over into the fan base pretty quickly. We’ve all had a love/hate relationship with CP3 over the years, but there’s no doubt the importance he’s had on Oklahoma hoops.
The come-up has been something to marvel for these teams that were bottom feeders just a few seasons ago. The Minnesota Timberwolves, Orlando Magic, and Oklahoma City Thunder were bottom 5 in the league just a couple of seasons ago. Now, all three of the teams listed are either at the top of their conference or in second place. In addition, teams like Houston and Indiana have become extremely competitive and have the possibility of moving up in the standings as the season progresses. The cycle of change in the NBA is as consistent as the four seasons. Teams at the top now will inevitably be at the bottom in a couple of seasons. And visa versa. So here’s to the upcoming era of these teams for the next couple of seasons.
Season Series: This is the first of four meetings between the Rockets and Thunder this season.
Betting Info
Line: OKC -2.5
O/U: 226.5
Injury Report
OKC
Ousmane Dieng (G-League assignment) – Not Available
HOU
Jock Londale (illness) – Questionable
Victor Oladipo (knee) – OUT
Amen Thompson (G-League assignment) – Not Available
Cam Whitmore (G-League assignment) – Not Available
Three Big Things
Giddey – Our point guard is averaging 1 assist per game over the last 3 games. He played a season low 16 minutes in the Thunder’s last game and seems to be struggling with his confidence. I know he has a lot going on in his personal life, but he has to play better. While the team has been successful despite Giddey’s erratic play, a normal Giddey type game could boost this team up even more. Maybe Mark Daigneault will find a line-up that can fit more to Giddey’s strengths when SGA goes to the bench. Maybe something like Giddey, Chet, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins/Kenrich Williams. Shooters and defenders around Giddey.
Pace – Houston is one of the slower paced teams in the league, while OKC is one of the higher paced teams. Both teams also do a good job of limiting turnovers. That said, if OKC can play their brand of basketball and cause Houston to turn the ball over, it should help facilitate their transition opportunities and shift the game towards their style of play.
Big man battle – The match-up we’ve all been waiting for. Chet vs. Sengun. On Twitter, Houston and OKC fans can be a bit contentious towards each other, and one of the main sticking points is Alperen Sengun. Houston fans love to point out the fact that OKC gave Sengun up in a draft day deal and that he is going to be one of their core pieces moving forward. OKC loves to point out the fact that Sengen is a traffic cone on defense and the Thunder still own the Rockets’ future for the next few seasons. The reality, as always, is somewhere in the middle. Sengun has been great this season, leading the Rockets in scoring (21 ppg) and rebounding (9.2), while being on a team that is 5th in defensive rating. But the Thunder have a better record, are further along in their rebuild, and still have a ton of assets (to include multiple first and second round picks from Houston). In addition, while channeling my inner Iron Man from the first Avengers movie, “We have a Chet”.
If you are writing a story about the come-up of a great young team, you always have to have the protagonist. The rival the team has to overcome to make it to the top of that mountain. For the Michael Jordan Chicago Bulls, it was the Detroit Pistons. For the Kobe/Shaq Lakers, it was the Sacramento Kings. For the Curry Warriors, it was Mark Jackson. For this iteration of the Thunder, we still don’t know who that team is. It could be the Orlando Magic. The San Antonio Spurs. Maybe the Houston Rockets.
Or it could be the team that we’ve already faced in a non-regular season scenario. These two teams faced off in the 2nd round game of the Play-In Tournament last season, with Minnesota out-dueling the Thunder on their way to a 120-95 victory. The Wolves were very physical and bested the Thunder in points in the paint, 58-30. The frontcourt tandem of Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns combined to score 49 points and grab 19 rebounds, while shooting 19 free throws.
Season Series – This is the first meeting this season between these division rivals.
Injury Report
OKC
None
MIN
Jaylen Clark (Achilles) – Out
Jaden McDaniels (ankle) – Out
Jordan McLaughlin (knee) – Out
Three Big Things
High stakes – Okay, so these may not be huge stakes. No one really cares about who’s number one in their conference 17 games into an 82-game season. I get it. But, man, would it feel good to be conference king for a day. If nothing else, a win gives you a leg up on a division/conference rival for future playoff seeding and knocks Minnesota out of the In-Season Tournament.
Big rotation – It’ll be interesting to see how head coach Mark Daigneault handles the big rotation tonight. We saw in the Philly game his willingness to play two bigs in Chet Holmgren and Jaylin Williams. What could be most interesting is the Naz Reid vs. Kenrich Williams match-up that I think we’ll see some tonight.
Shooting – I’ve got a secret for you guys. The Thunder, now hear me out, tend to do better when their 3-point shot is falling. I know, I know. Shocking! All kidding aside, the Thunder have turned into the quintessential modern NBA team. Most of their shots come from the 3-point line and in the paint. Only 7.6% of their points come from the mid-range. And while the Thunder do lead the league in 3-point percentage, when that shot isn’t falling, the offense can get very clunky. Players like Lu Dort and Cason Wallace, who started the season off hot, have now regressed to where they likely will be for the rest of the season. And if Isaiah Joe isn’t completely flame-throwing from deep, the offense looks even worse.
Oklahoma City General Manager Sam Presti (left) and Vice President of Basketball Operations Will Dawkins (right) meet with the media after the 2022 NBA Draft. (Credit: Alex Roig)
The Oklahoma City Thunder did something in this past draft that they haven’t done since they started this rebuild in 2019. Instead of acquiring more future first round picks, they consolidated a couple of picks from their asset chest in order to move up to take the prospect they wanted. In this case, the prospect was Ousmane Dieng. And the cost was three future first round picks. All three of the picks the Thunder gave up were heavily protected (lottery or more) for the 2023 NBA Draft, and those protections stretched out for the next 2-5 years. In essence, the Thunder traded the three worst first round assets they had for a player they really wanted.
In all, the Thunder have 13 possible first round picks over the next five drafts (2023-2027). Some of those picks will have value as draft picks and some of them will have value as trade bait. But every first round pick the Thunder have will have some sort of valuation, which is big to Thunder GM Sam Presti. When the Thunder traded the 16th pick in the 2021 NBA Draft to the Houston Rockets for two future firsts, many questioned if Presti was getting a little too asset-collection happy. After that draft, Presti was asked about trading what turned out to be Alperen Sengun for two future firsts. “It was just, it was a valuation of the asset and I think over time, we’ll be able to figure out different ways to utilize those. There’s really nothing more to it than that. It was just way above the line for the general value of that pick, and we’re going to probably make that decision most of the time.”
In this article, I wanted to look at the value of the 13 first round picks the Thunder have over the next five drafts. With that said, this is going to be perceived valuation based on the normal cycle teams go through in the NBA. I don’t have a crystal ball and can’t foresee things like injuries and future signings. These valuations are based on the current premise of the teams involved and the general evolution of what happens to teams in these positions. Without further ado, here are the values of the Thunder’s 13 future first round picks from least valuable to most valuable.
No. 13 – OKC’s 2027 first round pick
No. 12 – OKC’s 2026 first round pick
I put these two picks together because I think they hold the least amount of value to teams looking to deal with the Thunder. The Thunder will continue to add young talent to this team over the next few drafts. Also, as OKC gets better, they will likely add valuable veterans to the team via trade or (I can’t believe I’m saying this) free agency. As the collective talent on the team goes up, so will the wins. And as the wins increase, the draft position will also weaken. The Thunder will likely start to be good in 2024. But they will likely start to be great around 2026 or 2027. Hence, their draft picks will not be of much value to other teams.
No. 11 – Houston’s 2026 first round pick (Top-4 protected in ’26. Converts into a ’26 2nd rounder if it isn’t conveyed)
While Golden State, Boston, Milwaukee, and Los Angeles battle for league supremacy, OKC, Houston, Detroit, and Orlando are currently battling for draft position. Houston and OKC started their rebuilds around the same time. As Houston also continues to stack talent via the draft, their trajectory is likely to be very similar to OKC’s. For that reason, their 2026 pick is likely to be later in the first round than early in the first round.
No. 10 – Los Angeles Clippers’ 2024 first round pick (Unprotected)
If you think it’s crazy that an unprotected pick is only No. 10 on this list, I don’t blame you. Hell, I initially had this as the least valuable pick in the Thunder’s asset chest. But the pick being unprotected kind of forced me to move it down a couple spots. The reason I hesitate on giving this pick too much value is because the Clippers (sans injuries) are likely to be awesome over the next season or two. Like, “best record in the NBA” awesome. Like, “pick in the late 20’s or worse” awesome. Even with Kawhi Leonard out for the season and Paul George out for most of the season, the Clippers still found themselves in the midst of the play-in tournament. With those two back in tow and a point guard tandem of Reggie Jackson and Paul Wall, the Clippers could be real good when this pick is ready to convey.
No. 9 – Miami’s 2025 first round pick (Lottery protected for ’25. If not conveyed in ’25, it will be unprotected for ’26)
I really debated on where to put this pick due to the unprotected nature of it in it’s 2nd year. But Miami has three things going for it: two of their stars are young (Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro), they are a well run organization from top to bottom, and Miami is a prime free agent destination. Based on those three things, I don’t think the Heat will bottom out any time soon.
No. 8 – Philadelphia’s 2025 first round pick (Top-6 protected in ’25. Top-4 protected in ’26 & ’27. If not conveyed by ’27, it converts into a ’27 second rounder)
No. 7 – Utah’s 2024 first round pick (Top-10 protected in ’24 & ’25. Top-8 protected in ’26. If it doesn’t convey by ’26, OKC will receive $890K in cash)
I put these two picks together because these two teams a very close to being in turmoil over the next couple of seasons. For as great as Joel Embiid has been in his career, he’s never made it to a conference finals. Add to the mix, James Harden, who isn’t really known as a bastion of team chemistry, and the Sixers are a disappointing season or two away from being in complete flux. In addition, Embiid’s possible shelf life as a large human being who has had foot issues in the past could rear it’s ugly head in the near future.
The Utah Jazz seem to be the basketball version of the guy who peaked in high school. When the Jazz made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs in Donovan Mitchell’s rookie season, everyone thought that was just the beginning. Fast forward four seasons later and the Jazz still haven’t made it out of the 2nd round of the playoffs, their salary sheet is bloated, and their starting center shut down the world for two years (and now resides in Minnesota). Quin Snyder stepped down this offseason and Mitchell said aloud that he doesn’t know where he goes from here. The hope for Thunder fans is that the Jazz go the Portland route and try to use the picks they obtained in the Gobert deal to build around Mitchell for the next couple of seasons.
No. 6 – OKC’s 2025 first round pick
As mentioned in the explanation for OKC’s 2026 and 2027 picks, the Thunder could be well into their upward trajectory in 2025. They are likely to not be as good in 2025 as they are in ’26 and ’27, but they will likely be “playoff” good. This will be Josh Giddey and Tre Mann’s fourth season and Chet Holgrem, Jalen Williams, and Dieng’s third season. If the jump in their games were to happen, it would likely coincide with the 2024-25 season. But why would this pick be so valuable? The Thunder have the option to swap their pick with either the Clippers (unprotected) or the Rockets (Top-10 protected). If the Clippers hit an injury bug or if the Rockets aren’t progressing in their rebuild as quickly as the Thunder, the Thunder could end up with a better pick than their record suggests.
No. 5 – Denver’s 2027 first round pick (Top-5 protected for ’27 – ’29. Converts to a ’29 2nd rounder if it hasn’t conveyed by then)
Great teams usually have a shelf life of 3-5 years. Denver will be heading into Year 3 of their current situation. Injuries to Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. completely derailed last season, but Nikola Jokic still found ways to dominate on his way to his 2nd consecutive MVP award. But with their financial flexibility capped out and injury concerns for two of their three stars moving forward, this pick may be conveying around the time this team’s shelf life may be coming to end (if not already there by then).
No. 4 – OKC’s 2024 first round pick
No. 3 – Houston’s 2024 first round pick (Top-4 protected. If it isn’t conveyed, the Thunder would get Houston’s 2nd rounder in ’24 & ’25)
I lumped these two picks together because so much of their value is going to depend on what happens in the 2023 NBA Draft. If either of these teams lucks into Victor Wembanyama, their outlook changes immensely.
No. 2 – Los Angeles Clippers’ 2026 first round pick (Unprotected)
There’s a possibility the Clippers could still be good after the ’25-’26 season. But there’s also a high possibility that four more seasons of wear and tear will have had their effect on Leonard and George, along with the Clippers’ bloated cap sheet and lack of assets, to lead them into a slow decline that culminates in a great pick in this draft.
On the latest episode of The Weekly, the Topic: Thunder crew discuss the following topics:
Looking back at the 3-game road trip from last week
Player of the Week
Khris Middleton trade ideas
Houston struggling, smiles abound
The OKC Blue are the top team in the G-League
People imitating Russell Westbrook, but Russ receiving no credit
Looking at the next 4 games against tough Western Conference opponents
And more…
Thank you for listening to our podcast. You can catch the post-game recaps on the 2018-19 Schedule page on this site and on Thunderous Intentions. You can listen to us anywhere you get your podcasts. Please leave us a 5-star review on Itunes if you would like. That really helps with our ratings on Itunes. You can follow us and interact with us on Twitter (@OKCTopicThunder). Thank you for listening, and as always, Thunder Up!
On the latest episode of The Weekly, the Topic: Thunder crew discuss the following topics:
Looking at the week that started off streaking, but ended up with a loss at Dallas
Looking forward to this week’s game against three (likely) lotto teams
Comparing this team to last year’s team in relation to how they perform without Westbrook
Player of the Week
Discussing the Jimmy Butler to Philadelphia trade
Discussing the possible ouster of Carmelo Anthony from Houston
And more
Thank you for listening to our podcast. You can catch the post-game recaps on the 2018-19 Schedule page on this site and on Thunderous Intentions. You can listen to us anywhere you get your podcasts. Please leave us a 5-star review on Itunes if you would like. That really helps with our ratings on Itunes. Thank you for listening, and as always, Thunder Up!
On the latest episode of The Weekly, the Topic: Thunder crew discuss the following topics: